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Private Investor Sunday Times Sep 6 2015

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MONEY WE NEED MORE CONSUMER-FRIENDLY MORTGAGES, PARTICULARLY LONG-TERM FIXED INTEREST RATES Rachel Doyle, Professional Insurance Brokers Association CURRENT ACCOUNTS Institution ATM fee POS 1 fee Quarterly fee Ulster Bank €0.00 €0.00 €12.00 Permanent TSB €0.00 €0.00 €12.00 KBC Bank €0.30 €0.00 €6.00 Bank of Ireland €0.25 €0.10 €5.00 AIB Bank €0.35 €0.20 €4.50 1Point-of-sale or debit card purchases CREDIT CARDS BEST BALANCE TRANSFERS Card Disc Rate Until Contact KBC Bank 0.00% 6 months 1800 51 52 53 Permanent TSB 0.00% 6 months 1890 500 121 Tesco 0.00% 6 months 1800 555 743 BEST STANDARD RATES Card Rate Interest free Contact AIB Click 13.60% 1 56 days aib.ie Bank of Ireland 17.30% 2 56 days 0818 200 334 KBC Bank 18.25% 56 days 1800 51 52 53 1 AIB internet banking customers only 2Annual fee of €76.18 Source: Bonkers.ie HOME ENERGY THE BEST LOANS Lender Rate 1 Monthly payment Contact Bank of Ireland 7.50% 2 €398.44 0818 200 334 KBC Bank 9.80% 2 €418.96 1800 51 52 53 AIB Bank 9.99% €420.56 1890 724 724 Ulster Bank 10.30% €423.37 1890 303 004 1 Based on €20,000 borrowed over five years ²Current account customers only Company Fuel Av. Annual Bill¹ Energia Electricity only €1,043 Flogas Gas only €798 Energia Dual fuel €1,855 ¹Online billing and payment by direct debit required. Prices are based on average annual use of 13,800kWh gas, 5,300kWh electricity Source: Bonkers.ie MORTGAGES BEST FIXED RATES — MOVERS/SWITCHERS Institution Rate Term Contact Mortgage Store 3.50% 1 2 years mortgagestore.ie Ulster Bank 3.30% 2 3 years 1800 303 004 Ulster Bank 3.50% 2 5 years 1800 303 004 Ulster Bank 3.60% 2 7 years 1800 303 004 1 20% deposit 2 40% deposit BEST FIXED RATES — FIRST-TIME BUYERS Institution Rate Term Contact AIB Bank 3.60% 1 2 years 1890 724 724 KBC Bank 3.60% 1, 2 2 years 1800 51 52 53 AIB Bank 3.65% 1 3 years 1890 724 724 KBC Bank 3.65% 1, 2 3 years 1800 51 52 53 1 10% deposit 2 New customers only with KBC current accounts BEST VARIABLE RATES — MOVERS/SWITCHERS Institution Rate Deposit Contact EBS 3.30% 1 50% 1850 654321 AIB Bank 3.35% 1 50% 1890 724 724 Haven 3.35% 1 50% broker KBC Bank 3.50% 2 40% 1800 51 52 53 1 From October 1 2 New customers only with KBC current accounts BEST VARIABLE RATES — FIRST-TIME BUYERS Institution Rate Deposit Contact EBS 3.70% 1 10% 1850 654321 AIB Bank 3.75% 1 10% 1890 724 724 Haven 3.75% 1 10% broker 1 From October 1 HEALTH INSURANCE TOP HEALTH INSURANCE PLANS Insurer Plan Monthly cost Contact Public hospitals — basic cover GloHealth Base Lite €32.83 1 1890 781 781 VHI Start Plan €37.42 1890 444 444 Laya Assure Vitality €42.83 1890 700 890 Private hospitals — semi-private room GloHealth Net More 100 €74.17 2 1890 781 781 VHI One Plan 150 €74.31 2 1890 444 444 Aviva Select Plus €79.55 2 1890 717 717 1 No direct settlement on this plan 2 No cover for day-to-day medical expenses Prices are for individual adults and reflect changes to tax relief. Laya rates include a 3% charge for monthly payments Source: TotalHealthCover.ie Best Buys Airlines and car hire firms accounted for almost 40% of complaints handled last year by European Consumer Centre Ireland (ECC Ireland), which helps consumers with disputes arising from goods and services bought in another European country. Most of the complaints were made by foreigners against Irish airlines and car rental companies. WHAT ARE MY RIGHTS? Under EU law, airlines must pay compensation if passengers arrive at their destinations three or more hours later than scheduled. The amount depends on the distance travelled: €250 per person for short hops (say Dublin to Brussels); €400 for medium-haul flights (Cork to Rome, for example); and €600 for long-haul trips such as Shannon to New York. Airlines can refuse payment only if the delay was the result of an “extraordinary circumstance” beyond their control, such as a security threat, industrial action or extreme weather. However, carriers have repeatedly refused or delayed payments, challenging the EU regulations in court. Compensation is not paid automatically; each passenger must claim. You can claim compensation if you fly from an airport within the EU or travel with an airline that has its head office in the EU and you are due to land at an EU airport. For example, an Etihad flight from Dublin to Abu Dhabi would be covered by the regulations because it leaves from a European airport, but an Etihad trip from Abu Dhabi to Dublin would not. HOW DO I CLAIM? If an airline refuses compensation, you should complain to the enforcement body in the country from where the delayed flight was due to depart. If the flight was from Dublin to Malaga, for example, complaints should be made to Ireland’s Commission for Aviation Regulation. If the delay was on the return flight, you should complain to the equivalent body in Spain. One of the complaints handled by ECC Ireland came from a woman pursuing an Irish airline, believed to be Ryanair, for compensation awarded by Poland’s aviation regulator. It had overruled the airline’s claim that compensation was not payable on the basis that “extraordinary circumstances” were responsible for a delay of almost six hours on the woman’s flight from Gdansk to London Stansted. HOW LONG DO I HAVE TO CLAIM? The European rules do not stipulate how many years passengers have to claim compensation for a delay. They say the law of each country will apply. Britain’s Supreme Court decided last year that claims could be made for up to six years after a delay. While the ruling affects only passengers departing from UK airports, Aer Lingus has confirmed that it will change its policy to give the same rights to passengers on its flights from Ireland. WHAT ABOUT CAR RENTAL? Most complaints relate to charges for alleged damage that appear on customers’ credit card statements after returning a rental car. ECC Ireland is concerned that the charges can be based on estimates, with no evidence that the repairs were ever made. It advises consumers to demand a check-out report confirming that a car was returned in good condition, but acknowledges that this can be difficult to obtain in practice. TOP TIP While ECC Ireland provides a useful service for resolving cross-border disputes, it is powerless if businesses against which claims are made refuse to co-operate. The only option in these circumstances is for consumers to take legal action in the country where the business is located, which is usually impractical unless a lot of money is at stake. NIALL BRADY MONEY MADE EASY YOUR FIVE MINUTE GUIDE TO... TRAVEL DISPUTES SAVINGS EASY ACCESS Institution Rate Min deposit Contact RaboDirect 1.25% 1 €1 rabodirect.ie KBC Bank 1.25% 2 €3,000 1800 51 52 53 Nationwide UK 1.01% 3 €2,000 1800 800 310 1 0.5% over €50,000. 2 0.5% over €100,000 3 Six free withdrawals NOTICE ACCOUNTS Institution Rate Notice Contact RaboDirect 1.45% 1 90 days rabodirect.ie RaboDirect 1.25% 1 30 days rabodirect.ie Nationwide UK 1.02% 2 30 days 1800 800 310 1 Min €1 2 Min €2.000 DIRT FREE Institution Rate Term Contact State Savings 2.26% 10 years 1850 30 50 60 State Savings 1.24% 5.5 years 1850 30 50 60 State Savings 0.99% 4 years 1850 30 50 60 FIXED RATES Institution Annual Rate Term Contact KBC Bank 1.20% 1 12 or 14 months 1800 51 52 53 KBC Bank 1.10% 1 18 months 1800 51 52 53 Nationwide UK 1.10% 1 24 months 1800 800 310 1 Min €3,000 MONTHLY SAVERS Institution Rate Max monthly Contact Nationwide UK 4.00% €1,000 1800 800 310 KBC Bank 3.00% €1,000 1800 51 52 53 EBS 2.25% €1,000 1850 654321 T he broadcaster George Hook reckons buying shares is a form of gambling: “I don’t back horses and so I don’t buy shares.” Hook is wrong. There is a fundamental difference between the two. The average gambler may hit the occasional lucky streak but is a sure loser in the long run. The average share buyer should make a profit, provided they have a reasonable spread of investments and a sufficiently long investment horizon. Five years is the generally recommended minimum, probably because that was the normal length of an economic cycle — when economic cycles were normal. Nevertheless, some shares are suitable only for gamblers and should be avoided by anyone seeking a good night’s sleep. I am normally cautious when buying shares but I have gambled occasionally, and have generally regretted it. Applying George Hook’s horseracing analogy, I have backed some nags that are still running. One of my worst experiences started with a January 2013 decision to buy shares in a company called Carclo on foot of a recommendation in, of all places, the Financial Times, the finance person’s pink bible. According to the FT’s columnist, Carclo had a good story to tell. It was a unique player in the world of mobile phones and small computer monitors; it had perfected a technique for printing thin metal lines, invisible to the naked eye, on special film. Without producing any numbers, the columnist claimed the share price had a good chance of doubling over the next 12 to 18 months. Foolishly, I believed his story without checking the numbers. The share price, far from doubling, halved, and then halved again. I finally sold the shares in November 2014 at less than a quarter of what they had cost me. The only consolation was that the amount invested was less than I normally venture. One lesson learnt from that debacle was not to invest in a share that tells a good story but where the promise of great profits has no justification, or can be justified only based on heroic assumptions for future growth. I resolved to avoid high-risk shares in future. My resolve was strengthened by some recent findings in behavioural finance. This relatively new area of study recognises that none of us, not even supposedly super-rational investors, behaves rationally all the time. In fact, investors sometimes behave quite irrationally. Classic finance theory, which assumes that everyone behaves rationally, says that, on average, risky investments should generate a higher return in the long term. That is no more than common sense — otherwise, why would anyone ever bother taking a risk? We would be just as well off putting our money in the piggy-bank. Things aren’t that simple, though. At very high levels of risk, it seems that investors tend to behave more like gamblers. A number of possible reasons have been adduced for this, one of which is called “lottery preferences” and works as follows: none of us is stupid enough to pay €1 to get back just 50c yet hundreds of thousands of us do precisely that on a regular basis, but in the guise of buying Lotto tickets where the individual punter may hit lucky but the overall payout ratio is not far off 50c in the euro. Much the same phenomenon manifests itself in high-risk shares: the possibility of the occasional jackpot lures investors into overpaying. In the light of this painful experience, I also resolved only to buy shares that I had researched carefully myself and not to put my trust in tips, even if they came from a respected source. I hope to share some of that research with readers, so that you can make your own assessment of a share’s worth. I recognise that my newfound resolve to stay on the straight and narrow path of investment righteousness means that I won’t profit from the next hot stock to take the investment world by storm but, by the same token, I hope to avoid the financial pain and indignity of another Carclo. If the behavioural finance theorists are right, I’ll also earn a higher return on my investments as a reward for my virtue. In the next column, I plan to tell of a much happier experience with a company that — in my opinion, of course — is worth far more than the value placed on it by the market. Such discoveries are the stock-picker’s equivalent of the Holy Grail. Colm Fagan is an active private investor. He is a retired actuary and a non-executive director of a number of financial institutions The stock market may have the reputation as a rich man’s lottery but risky stocks can be avoided in favour of long-term gains WITH HIGH-RISK SHARES, THE POSSIBILITY OF THE OCCASIONAL JACKPOT LURES INVESTORS INTO OVERPAYING COLM FAGAN DIARY OF A PRIVATE INVESTOR How to make shares less of a gamble A rational, long-term approach can stop the sensible investor losing sleep over any unexpected losses from buying the latest hot stocks on the market GETTY 12
Transcript
Page 1: Private Investor Sunday Times Sep 6 2015

MONE

Y

1 4

WE NEED MORE CONSUMER-FRIENDLYMORTGAGES, PARTICULARLY LONG-TERMFIXED INTEREST RATES

Rachel Doyle, Professional Insurance Brokers Association

CURRENT ACCOUNTS

Institution ATM fee POS 1fee Quarterly fee

Ulster Bank €0.00 €0.00 €12.00

Permanent TSB €0.00 €0.00 €12.00

KBCBank €0.30 €0.00 €6.00

Bank of Ireland €0.25 €0.10 €5.00

AIBBank €0.35 €0.20 €4.50

1Point-of-sale or debit card purchases

CREDITCARDSBESTBALANCETRANSFERSCard Disc Rate Until ContactKBCBank 0.00% 6 months 1800 51 52 53Permanent TSB 0.00% 6 months 1890 500 121Tesco 0.00% 6 months 1800 555 743

BESTSTANDARDRATESCard Rate Interest free ContactAIBClick 13.60% 1 56 days aib.ieBank of Ireland 17.30% 2 56 days 0818 200 334KBCBank 18.25% 56 days 1800 51 52 531AIB internet banking customers only 2Annual fee of €76.18 Source:Bonkers.ie

HOME ENERGY

THE BEST LOANSLender Rate 1 Monthly

paymentContact

Bank of Ireland 7.50%2 €398.44 0818 200 334KBC Bank 9.80%2 €418.96 1800 51 52 53AIB Bank 9.99% €420.56 1890 724 724Ulster Bank 10.30% €423.37 1890 303 0041Based on €20,000 borrowed over five years²Current account customers only

Company Fuel Av. Annual Bill¹

Energia Electricity only €1,043Flogas Gas only €798Energia Dual fuel €1,855¹Online billing and payment by direct debit required. Prices are based on average annual use of13,800kWh gas, 5,300kWh electricity Source:Bonkers.ie

MORTGAGESBEST FIXED RATES — MOVERS/SWITCHERSInstitution Rate Term Contact

Mortgage Store 3.50%1 2 years mortgagestore.ie

Ulster Bank 3.30%2 3 years 1800 303 004

Ulster Bank 3.50%2 5 years 1800 303 004

Ulster Bank 3.60%2 7 years 1800 303 004120% deposit 240% deposit

BESTFIXEDRATES — FIRST-TIME BUYERSInstitution Rate Term Contact

AIB Bank 3.60% 1 2 years 1890 724 724

KBC Bank 3.60% 1, 2 2 years 1800 51 52 53

AIBBank 3.65% 1 3 years 1890 724 724

KBC Bank 3.65% 1, 2 3 years 1800 51 52 53110% deposit 2New customers only with KBC current accounts

BESTVARIABLERATES — MOVERS/SWITCHERSInstitution Rate Deposit Contact

EBS 3.30%1 50% 1850 654321

AIB Bank 3.35%1 50% 1890 724 724

Haven 3.35%1 50% broker

KBC Bank 3.50%2 40% 1800 51 52 531From October 1 2New customers only with KBC current accounts

BESTVARIABLERATES — FIRST-TIME BUYERSInstitution Rate Deposit Contact

EBS 3.70%1 10% 1850 654321

AIB Bank 3.75%1 10% 1890 724 724

Haven 3.75%1 10% broker1From October 1

HEALTH INSURANCETOP HEALTHINSURANCEPLANS

Insurer Plan Monthlycost

Contact

Public hospitals — basic cover

GloHealth Base Lite €32.831 1890 781 781

VHI Start Plan €37.42 1890 444 444

Laya Assure Vitality €42.83 1890 700 890

Private hospitals — semi-private room

GloHealth Net More 100 €74.172 1890 781 781

VHI One Plan 150 €74.312 1890 444 444

Aviva Select Plus €79.552 1890 717 717

1No direct settlement on this plan 2No cover for day-to-daymedical expensesPrices are for individual adults and reflect changes to tax relief. Laya rates include a 3% charge formonthly payments Source: TotalHealthCover.ie

Best Buys

Airlines and car hire firms accounted for almost 40% ofcomplaints handled last year by European Consumer CentreIreland (ECC Ireland), which helps consumers with disputesarising from goods and services bought in another Europeancountry. Most of the complaints were made by foreignersagainst Irish airlines and car rental companies.

WHAT ARE MY RIGHTS?Under EU law, airlines must pay compensation ifpassengers arrive at their destinations three or more

hours later than scheduled. The amount depends on thedistance travelled: €250 per person for short hops (sayDublin to Brussels); €400 for medium-haul flights (Cork toRome, for example); and €600 for long-haul trips such asShannon to New York.Airlines can refuse payment only if the delay was the result of

an “extraordinary circumstance” beyond their control, such as asecurity threat, industrial action or extreme weather. However,carriers have repeatedly refused or delayed payments,challenging the EU regulations in court. Compensation is notpaid automatically; each passenger must claim.You can claim compensation if you fly from an airport within

the EU or travel with an airline that has its head office in the EUand you are due to land at an EU airport. For example, an Etihadflight from Dublin to Abu Dhabi would be covered by theregulations because it leaves from a European airport, but anEtihad trip from Abu Dhabi to Dublin would not.

HOW DO I CLAIM?If an airline refuses compensation, you should complainto the enforcement body in the country from where the

delayed flight was due to depart.If the flight was from Dublin to Malaga, for example,

complaints should be made to Ireland’s Commission forAviation Regulation. If the delay was on the return flight, youshould complain to the equivalent body in Spain.

One of the complaints handled by ECC Ireland came from awoman pursuing an Irish airline, believed to be Ryanair, forcompensation awarded by Poland’s aviation regulator.It had overruled the airline’s claim that compensation was not

payable on the basis that “extraordinary circumstances” wereresponsible for a delay of almost six hours on the woman’sflight from Gdansk to London Stansted.

HOW LONG DO I HAVE TO CLAIM?The European rules do not stipulate how many yearspassengers have to claim compensation for a delay. They

say the law of each country will apply. Britain’s Supreme Courtdecided last year that claims could be made for up to six yearsafter a delay.While the ruling affects only passengers departing from UK

airports, Aer Lingus has confirmed that it will change its policyto give the same rights to passengers on its flights from Ireland.

WHAT ABOUT CAR RENTAL?Most complaints relate to charges for alleged damagethat appear on customers’ credit card statements after

returning a rental car. ECC Ireland is concerned that the chargescan be based on estimates, with no evidence that the repairswere ever made.It advises consumers to demand a check-out report

confirming that a car was returned in good condition, butacknowledges that this can be difficult to obtain in practice.

TOP TIPWhile ECC Ireland provides a useful service for resolvingcross-border disputes, it is powerless if businesses

against which claims are made refuse to co-operate.The only option in these circumstances is for consumers to

take legal action in the country where the business is located,which is usually impractical unless a lot of money is at stake.

NIALL BRADY

MONEYMADEEASYYOURFIVEMINUTEGUIDETO...TRAVEL DISPUTES

SAVINGSEASY ACCESSInstitution Rate Min deposit ContactRaboDirect 1.25% 1 €1 rabodirect.ieKBC Bank 1.25%2 €3,000 1800 51 52 53Nationwide UK 1.01% 3 €2,000 1800 800 31010.5% over €50,000. 20.5% over €100,000 3Six free withdrawals

NOTICE ACCOUNTSInstitution Rate Notice ContactRaboDirect 1.45% 1 90 days rabodirect.ieRaboDirect 1.25% 1 30 days rabodirect.ieNationwide UK 1.02% 2 30 days 1800 800 3101Min €1 2Min €2.000

DIRTFREEInstitution Rate Term ContactState Savings 2.26% 10 years 1850 30 50 60State Savings 1.24% 5.5 years 1850 30 50 60State Savings 0.99% 4 years 1850 30 50 60

FIXED RATES

Institution AnnualRate Term Contact

KBC Bank 1.20% 1 12 or 14months 1800 51 52 53

KBC Bank 1.10% 1 18 months 1800 51 52 53Nationwide UK 1.10% 1 24 months 1800 800 3101Min €3,000

MONTHLY SAVERSInstitution Rate Max monthly ContactNationwide UK 4.00% €1,000 1800 800 310KBC Bank 3.00% €1,000 1800 51 52 53EBS 2.25% €1,000 1850 654321

The broadcaster George Hookreckons buying shares is a formof gambling: “I don’t backhorses and so I don’t buyshares.”Hook is wrong. There isa fundamental difference

between the two. The average gamblermay hit the occasional lucky streak but isa sure loser in the long run. The averageshare buyer shouldmake a profit,provided they have a reasonable spread ofinvestments and a sufficiently longinvestment horizon.Five years is the generally

recommendedminimum, probablybecause that was the normal length of aneconomic cycle —when economic cycleswere normal. Nevertheless, some sharesare suitable only for gamblers and shouldbe avoided by anyone seeking a goodnight’s sleep.I am normally cautious when buying

shares but I have gambled occasionally,and have generally regretted it. ApplyingGeorge Hook’s horseracing analogy, Ihave backed some nags that are stillrunning.One of myworst experiences started

with a January 2013 decision to buyshares in a company called Carclo on footof a recommendation in, of all places, the

Financial Times, the finance person’spink bible.According to the FT’s columnist,

Carclo had a good story to tell. It was aunique player in the world of mobilephones and small computer monitors; ithad perfected a technique for printing

thinmetal lines, invisible to the nakedeye, on special film.Without producingany numbers, the columnist claimed theshare price had a good chance ofdoubling over the next 12 to 18months.Foolishly, I believed his story withoutchecking the numbers.

The share price, far from doubling,halved, and then halved again. I finallysold the shares in November 2014 at lessthan a quarter of what they had cost me.The only consolation was that theamount invested was less than Inormally venture.One lesson learnt from that debacle

was not to invest in a share that tells agood story but where the promise ofgreat profits has no justification, or canbe justified only based on heroicassumptions for future growth.I resolved to avoid high-risk shares in

future. My resolve was strengthened bysome recent findings in behaviouralfinance. This relatively new area of studyrecognises that none of us, not even

supposedly super-rational investors,behaves rationally all the time. In fact,investors sometimes behave quiteirrationally.Classic finance theory, which assumes

that everyone behaves rationally, saysthat, on average, risky investmentsshould generate a higher return in thelong term. That is nomore than commonsense — otherwise, whywould anyoneever bother taking a risk?Wewould bejust as well off putting our money in thepiggy-bank.Things aren’t that simple, though. At

very high levels of risk, it seems thatinvestors tend to behavemore likegamblers.A number of possible reasons have

been adduced for this, one of which iscalled “lottery preferences” andworksas follows: none of us is stupid enough topay €1 to get back just 50c yet hundredsof thousands of us do precisely that on aregular basis, but in the guise of buyingLotto tickets where the individual puntermay hit lucky but the overall payout ratiois not far off 50c in the euro.Much the same phenomenon

manifests itself in high-risk shares: thepossibility of the occasional jackpot luresinvestors into overpaying.In the light of this painful experience,

I also resolved only to buy shares that Ihad researched carefully myself and notto put my trust in tips, even if they camefrom a respected source.I hope to share some of that research

with readers, so that you canmake yourown assessment of a share’s worth.I recognise that my newfound resolve

to stay on the straight and narrow pathof investment righteousness meansthat I won’t profit from the next hotstock to take the investment world bystorm but, by the same token, I hope toavoid the financial pain and indignity ofanother Carclo.If the behavioural finance theorists are

right, I’ll also earn a higher return onmyinvestments as a reward for my virtue.In the next column, I plan to tell of a

much happier experience with acompany that — inmy opinion, ofcourse — is worth far more than thevalue placed on it by themarket. Suchdiscoveries are the stock-picker’sequivalent of the Holy Grail.

Colm Fagan is an active privateinvestor. He is a retired actuaryand a non-executive director of

a number of financial institutions

The stock market may have the reputation as a rich man’s lottery but risky stocks can be avoided in favour of long-term gains

WITH HIGH-RISKSHARES, THEPOSSIBILITY OF THEOCCASIONAL JACKPOTLURES INVESTORSINTO OVERPAYINGCOLM

FAGAN

DIARY OF A PRIVATEINVESTOR

How tomake shares less of a gambleA rational, long-termapproach can stopthe sensible investorlosing sleep over anyunexpected lossesfrombuying thelatest hot stockson themarket

GETTY

12

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