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Probabilistic Volatility in the Western Interconnection
Matthew Elkins
2
100
99
10,000
Matt
A Theory on Relativity
99
3
24,99925,00099?
Deterministic
Probabilistic
Definition of the Denominator
4
Applied to Electricity
25,000Expected
Generation
5
Probability Distribution
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Expected Margin
Margin 25%
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Reduced Margin
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Reduced Margin
Margin 5%
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Probabilities
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Reduced Margin
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~50%
Independent ProbabilityP(A) * P(B)
~50% X ~50% = ~25%
MW
Vulnerabilities
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Risk Analysis
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Increased Supply Variability
Generation OutagesTransmission OutagesFuel AdequacyMisoperations
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Increased Risk
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Increased Risk