Probabilities Possibilities

Probabilities Expectations & FORECASTS

CHANCESLas Vegas

Lottery Tickets when to buy ?

Calculations

Every Event has a probability

Calculating ChancesLottery is for Rs 100

Tickets sold to 10 peopleChances are 1/10 or 10%

Will you buy if :

Ticket is for Rs 5

Ticket is for Rs 15

Type of EventsFlip of a Coin

Yield of Crop

Somewhat Dead ?

Discrete vs Continuous

FUNNEL AND PROBABILITIESWhy is it called a funnel

Do probabilities change as we travel down

Every Funnel will have its own probabilities

Does it every dry out ?

Big Mistake to Stop if Funnel is Healthy

Funnel Why Bother about Funnel

Do we have Enough Leads for a Healthy Funnel

Do we Have Enough on Each Stage

Are there too Many Aged Opportunities

ProbabilitiesProbabilities improve with progress along the funnel path

Probabilities are a given based on history

If opportunity wise probabilities were stated forecast would be more accurate

Sales Managers Expectations3 Out of every 10 opportunities mature

If every Opportunity is Rs 1000

So how many needed to get to Rs 300k

Increase number of leads- Short Term

Increase Conversion Rate - Long Term

Improving ChancesIncrease Conversion RateVisit a Wider Range of Clients

Track More Opportunities

Follow up and Frequency of visit

Understanding of Clients Brief

Speed and Quality

HEALTH IS WEALTHIs Growth of Funnel Commensurate with Growth of Organisation ?

Has it Grown since Last Quarter ?

Has the Quality of Opportunities Improved/ Deteriorated ?

Do you want to Purge it ?

Add as Many Opportunities as you Deliver ?

May Have to Keep Running to be on the Same Spot

Does your funnel look like this ?

Or look like this ?

OUTLIERSWhat are Outliers

OUTLIERS

Values or Readings that make Averages Less Representative

Rs 982 million opportunity having a 20% probability can put you to sleep

Opp Value ProbExp ValAlpha 100 0.8 80 Bravo 200 0.8 160 Charlie 900,000 0.1 90,000 Delta 200 0.9 180 Total 900,500 90,420

Opp Value ProbExp ValAlpha 100 0.8 80 Bravo 200 0.8 160 Echo 300 0.1 30 Delta 200 0.9 180 Total 800 450

With an OutlierWithout an Outlier

Outliers can change your perception of reality totally15

Seed Quality & Level of Maturity=TasteSeed Quality Equals Profile of Client

Level of Maturity is the Stage in Sales Funnel

Seed & Maturity Give Forecast of Good Quality

Similarity with Sales Funnel

The 2 Put Together Give the Actual Picture

ADDING UPWhen Probabilities of Individual Proposals are Estimated

The Result is Far More Accurate

Applying Conversion Rate of Each Stage to the Totals Also Gives an Accurate Picture

Evaluating these two will give us an educated guess

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PROBABILITY AND OPPORTUNITYOPPORTUNITY VALUE PROBABILITY EXPECTED

Bpal 300 0.7 210

MI 200 0.4 80

P0L 500 0.6 300

TC 600 0.2120

REAL 150 0.4 60

UNIWELL 800 0.5 400

STYLE 50 0.6 30

TOTAL 2600 1200