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ProblemSolving&DecisionMaking

Problem Solving & Decision Making

• We encounter ‘problems’ everyday• Selecting a technology• Deciding how to allocate effort or resources• Choosing which task to start

• Yet, we seldom examine our approach to problem solving and decision making• We can learn specific techniques that enable a better

method and more reliable outcomes

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What can humans do well?

• Research in cognitive sciences show what humans do extraordinarily well• Classification – identifying an object and its attributes • Generalization – recognizing the attributes of similar objects• Specialization – recognizing the similarity of certain objects• Cause – identifying how one event triggers another• Patterns – recognizing similar aggregate objects

• These principles support more sophisticated ontologies in almost every discipline, from art to software engineering

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So What?

• These basic characteristics of cognition support specific techniques for how we understand a problem• Humans are very good at:

• Making lists – creating a list of tasks• Giving examples – ‘Al’s, Susan’s or Figaro’s?’• Finding exceptions – proof reading a document• Ranking – identifying important requirements• Sequencing – determining the steps for testing• Visualization – creating a wireframe• Comparisons – finding a similar technical architecture

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What Goes Wrong?

• Strengths can also lead to certain weaknesses in problem solving and decision making• Confirmation bias – weighting evidence that supports your

preconception• Anecdotal bias – weighting personal experience over broader

information• Experience bias – every solution is like previously successful

solutions• Superiority bias – a well-formed solutions is intrinsically

correct; also the Dunning-Krugar Effect that describes how competence and confidence are inversely proportional.

John Cleese on Stupidity

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So How Can We Do Better?

• We can improve problem solving and decision making by learning specific techniques• These techniques can vary from informal to formal

• Lists• Concept Maps• Taxonomies• Structured Methods

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Concept Maps

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Matter

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Marketing

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Marketing

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Taxonomies

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Bears!

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Kepner-Tregoe

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Decision Analysis

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Other Techniques

• Prioritization – assign each task Priority, Criticality, Complexity• SWOT Analysis – structure a problem by strengths,

weakness, opportunities, threats• Concept Diagram – formal model using objects, types,

attributes, behaviors (similar to a UML Class diagram)

And, when completely out of ideas –“Proof by Belligerent Assertion”

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