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    MEASURE AND PROBABILITY

    by

    Ricardo Huamn Aguilar

    Class notes for the the course Medida y Probabilidad in the Maestraen Matemticas Aplicadas at PUCP, March-July 2016.

    All your comments are very welcome at [email protected]

    PUCP

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    Contents

    1 Measure and Integration in Product Spaces 11.1 Exterior measure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

    1.2 Product measure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

    1.3 The Fubini-Tonelli Theorem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

    1.4 Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

    1.5 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

    1

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    Chapter 1

    Measure and Integration inProduct Spaces

    Rectangles, product-algebra, product measure space, productprobability space, Tonellis theorem, Fubinis theorem, independence

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    2

    1.1 Exterior measure

    1.1 Definition. An exterior measure on a nonempty set is a function : () [0, ] such that

    1. () = 0;

    2. If A B, then (A) (B);

    3. (j=1

    Aj)

    j(A

    j).

    1.2 Definition. A set E is said to be -measurable if

    (A) = (A E) +(A Ec), A .

    1.3 Theorem. Let be an exterior measure on and let be thecollection of all measurable subsets of . Then is a -algebra and

    (, ,) is a complete measure space, where := |.

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    3

    Proof. Denote := (,). Then . (i) If E , then Ec, since

    (A) = (A E) +(A Ec) = (A (Ec)c) +(A Ec).

    If E1, E2 , then

    (A) = (A E1) +(A Ec

    1)

    = (A E1 E2) +(A E1 E

    c2

    ) +(A Ec1

    E2) +(A Ec

    1Ec

    2)

    = (A (E1 E2)) +(A (E1 \E2)) +(A (E2 \E1)) +(A (E1 E2)c)

    (A (E1 E2)) +(A (E1 E2)

    c)

    So E1 E2 .

    (ii) If Fj for j , we prove that jFj . Define E1 = F1 and

    Ej:=Fj \ (j1k=1Fk), j= 2, 3, . Then Ej are pairwise disjoint and njEj= nj=1Fjand Ej= jFj.

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    4

    Hence to prove (ii) it suffices to show that if Ej for j and all Ejare pairwise disjoint, then Ej . Let Bn:=

    njEj and B := j=1Ej. Then

    Bn

    . For any A ,

    (A Bn) = (A Bn En) +

    (A Bn Ecn

    ) = (A En) +(A Bn1).

    By induction, we have (A Bn) =n

    j=1(A Ej). So

    (A) = (A Bn) +(A Bc

    n)

    n

    j=1

    (A Ej) +(A Bc),

    and letting n , we obtain

    (A) j=1

    (A Ej) +(A Bc) (j(A Ej)) +

    (A Bc)

    = (A B) +(A Bc) (A).

    Thus, B= Ej and

    (Ej) =

    j

    (Ej).

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    5

    Hence, is a -algebra and :=| is a measure on . If (E) =0,

    then E (,), since

    (A) (A E) +(A Ec) (E) +(A Ec) = (A Ec) (A).

    Therefore, (, (,),) is a complete measure space.

    1.4 Proposition. Let () and : [0, ] be a function such

    that

    (1) and () = 0;

    (2) = j=1

    Aj for some Aj , j .

    For E , define

    (E):=inf

    j=1(Aj) | Aj j , E

    j=1Aj

    . (1.1)

    Then is an exterior measure.

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    6

    Proof. (i) Since 0 () () =0, we have () =0. (ii) If A B, then

    any countable cover of B by elements of is also a cover of A. Hence

    (A) (B).

    (iii) For any given > 0, by the definition of(Aj), there exists a countable

    cover kEj,k Aj such that all Ej,k andk

    (Ej,k) (Aj) +

    2j.

    Hence jAj j kEj,k and

    (jAj)

    j

    k

    (Ej,k)

    j

    ((Aj) +

    2j) = +

    j

    (Aj).

    Taking 0, we conclude that (jAj) j (Aj) and is an exteriormeasure.

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    7

    1.2 Product measure

    1.5 Theorem. Let (, ,) and (S, ,) be measure spaces. Denote

    := {A B |A ,B } and (A B):= (A)(B).

    For each subset E S, define

    (E):=inf

    j=1

    (Aj)(B

    j) | E

    j=1A

    jB

    j, A

    j , B

    j .

    (1) Then is an exterior measure on S.

    (2) Let S denote the collection of all -measurable subsets of S.

    Then S is a -algebra.

    (3) If we define := |S,

    then ( S, S, ) is a complete measure space.

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    1.6 Lemma. If E and F , then

    EF S and (EF):= (EF) = (E)(F).

    Proof. Let A S. For any > 0, there exists Ej , Fj such that

    A j(Ej Fj) and

    j

    (Ej)(Fj) (A) + .

    Note that

    A (EF) [j(Ej Fj)] (EF) = j[(Ej E) (Fj F)]

    and

    A (EF)c

    j

    (Ej E) (Fj F

    c) (Ej Ec) Fj

    .

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    Consequently,

    (A (EF)) +(A (EF)c) j

    (Ej E)(Fj F)

    +

    j

    (Ej E)(Fj Fc) +

    j

    (Ej Ec)(Fj)

    =j

    (Ej E)(Fj) +j

    (Ej Ec)(Fj) =

    j

    (Ej)(Fj) (A) + .

    Taking 0, we see that

    (A (EF)) +(A (EF)c) (A).

    So, EF is -measurable, that is, EF S.

    Lets show the other claim. By EF EF, it is trivial that (EF):=(EF) (E)(F).

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    10

    Conversely, if EF j(Ej Fj), Ej , Fj , we have

    1E()1F(s) j

    1Ej()1Fj (s), ,s S.

    Integrating both sides of the above inequality, first with respect to and

    then with respect to , and applying twice the MCT, we have

    (E)(F) =

    S

    1E()1F(s)d(s)d()

    Sj

    1Ej()1Fj (s)d(s)d()

    =

    j

    S

    1Ej()1Fj (s)d(s)d() =

    j

    1Ej()

    S

    1Fj(s)d(s)d()

    j

    1Ej()(Fj)d() =

    j

    1Ej(Fj)d() =

    j

    (Ej)(Fj).

    This proves (E)(F) (EF) =: (EF).

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    1.7 Definition. Let be the -algebra generated by the sets

    := {A B |A , B }.

    The measure space

    ( S, , )

    is called the product space of (, ,) and (S, ,).

    It is also denoted as ( S, , ).

    1.1 Exercise. The measure is the unique measure on such

    that

    (A B) = (A)(B), A ,B .

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    1.3 The Fubini-Tonelli Theorem

    1.8 Definition. The -section E and s-section Es

    of a subset E Sare

    E:= {s S | (,s) E} and Es:= { | (,s) E}.

    For a function f : S , the -section f and s-section fs are

    f

    (s) := f(,s), fs() := f(,s).

    1.9 Proposition. (i) If E , then E for all and Es

    for all s S.

    (ii) If f is -measurable, then f is -measurable for all and

    fs

    is -measurable for all s S.

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    Proof. Let be the collection

    := {E | E , ;Es , s S}.

    Obviously, A B for all A and B . SincejEj

    = j(Ej), (Ec)= (E)

    c,

    and likewise for s-sections, is a -algebra. Therefore, . This

    proves (i).

    (ii) Follows from (i) since for any B

    (f)1(B) = (f1(B)), (f

    s)1(B) = (f1(B))s.

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    1.10 Theorem. Suppose that (, ,) and (S, ,) are -finite spaces.

    If E , then the function

    (E) is -measurable,

    and the function

    s (Es) is -measurable;

    and

    (E

    ) =

    (E

    )d

    (

    ) = S

    (E

    s)d

    (s

    ).

    Proof. First, we assume that () < and (S) < . Let be the set of

    all E for which the conclusions of the theorem are true. IfE= AB,

    then (E) = 1A()(B) and (Es) =(A)1B(s). So clearly, E=A B for

    all A and B . Hence contains the -system . We note that

    is a -system (see exercise below). By the Theorem, = .

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    15

    If and are -finite, we can write S= j(j Sj) of rectangles with

    (j)(Sj) < , j and Sj S. IfE , we have (see exercise below)

    (E (j Sj)) =

    1j()(E Sj)d() =

    S

    1Sj(s)(Es j)d(s). (1.2)

    Noting that 1j ()(E Sj) 1()(E), the conclusion now follows from

    the MCT.

    1.2 Exercise. (i) Prove that defined in the above theorem is a -

    system. (ii) Prove (1.2).

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    1.11 Theorem. Suppose that (, ,) and (S, ,) are -finite spaces.

    Define

    g():=

    S

    fd and h(s):=

    fsd.

    [Tonelli] If f : S [0, ] is -measurable function, then g and h

    are nonnegative and measurable; and

    S f(,s)d (,s) =

    S f(,s)d(s)

    d()

    =

    S

    f(,s)d()

    d(s). (1.3)

    [Fubini] If f L1( ), then

    (1) f L1(S, ,) for -a.e. , fs L1(, ,) for -a.e. s S,

    (2) the a.e.-defined functions g L1(, ,), h L1(S, ,), a n d (1.3)

    holds.

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    Proof. By Theorem 1.10, Tonellis theorem holds when f is a character-

    istic function. By linearity of integration, it holds for nonnegative simple

    functions. If f is a nonnegative measurable function, there is a sequence

    (n)n of nonnegative simple functions such that n(,s) f(,s) for all

    (,s) S. The MCT implies first gn() :=

    S(n)d

    S

    fd and

    hn(s):=

    (n)

    sd

    fsd, and again

    S

    f dd =

    g d =limn

    gnd =limn

    S

    n(,s)d(s)()

    =limn

    S

    nd( ) =

    S

    f d( ).

    and similarly,

    S

    f dd =

    S

    hd =limn

    S

    hnd =limn

    S

    n(,s)d(s)()

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    =limn

    S

    nd( ) =

    S

    f d( ).

    This proves Tonellis theorem. Moreover, if

    Sf d( )< , this also

    shows that g< a.e. and h< a.e., that is f L1(S, ,) for a.e.

    and fs L1(, ,) for a.e. s S.

    If f L1( S, , ), the conclusion of Fubinis theorem follows by

    applying Tonellis theorem to the positive and negative parts of f.

    1.3 Exercise. In general, ( S, , ) is not complete.

    Notation. The product space is also denoted as ( S, , ).

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    1.4 Applications

    Throughout this section, the probability space (, ,P) is given.1.12 Theorem. Let X1, X2, , Xn be random variables where Xk has

    distribution P Xk. Let P X be the distribution of the random vector X =

    (X1, ,Xn). The random variables X1, X2, , Xn are independent if and

    only if

    P X = P X1 P Xn.

    Proof. For the sake of notation, we consider n=2. We want to show that

    (2, (2),PX) = ( , ,PX1 PX2). By Exercise 1.5 below (2) =

    . We need to proof that PX =PX1 PX2. Given the uniqueness of the

    product measure, it suffices to show that it holds only on the rectangles

    = {A B |A, B }. Indeed, by independence,

    PX(A B) = P

    (X1,X2) A B

    = P(X1 A)P(X2 B)

    =PX1(A)PX2(B) = PX1 PX2(A B).

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    To prove the converse, we note that PX(A B) = P(X1 A,X2 B) and

    PX1(A)PX2(B) = P(X1 A)P(X2 B).

    1.13 Theorem. Let X and Y be independent random variables with

    distributions P X and P Y, respectively. Let h : 2 be measurable. If

    either h 0, or E|h(X, Y)| < , then

    Eh(X, Y) =

    h(x,y)d P X(x) d PY(y). ()

    In particular, if h(x,y) = f(x)g(y) where f,g : measurable with either

    f,g 0 or E|f(X)|, E|g(Y)| < , then

    Ef(X)g(Y) = Ef(X)Eg(Y). ()

    Proof. Consider h 0 first. By the Change of Variable Formula and

    Tonellis theorem,

    Eh(X, Y) =

    2

    h(x,y)PX P Y(d x, d y) =

    h(x,y)PX(d x)P Y(d y).

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    To prove the second claim, consider first f 0 and g 0. By the above

    equality,

    Ef(X)g(Y) =

    f(x)g(y)PX(d x)P Y(d y) = Ef(X)Eg(Y).

    For the other case, we apply the above argument to |f(X)| and |g(Y)|,

    E|f(X)g(Y)| = E|f(X)|E|g(Y)| < .

    Now Fubini can be applied to f(X)g(Y) to obtain the desired result.

    1.14 Theorem. Let X1, X2, , Xn be independent random variables. If

    either Xi 0 for all i, or E|Xi| < for all i, then

    Eni=1

    Xi = ni=1

    EXi.

    Proof. Follows directly from the previous theorem.

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    1.5 Exercises

    1.4 Exercise. Let (, ,P) be a probability space. SupposeX : [0, )is a random variable. Then

    E [X] =

    [0,)

    P(X>t)(d t),

    where is the Lebesgue measure.

    1.5 Exercise. Prove that () () = (2).

    1.6 Exercise. If X and Y are independent, then

    FX+Y

    (z):=P(X+Yz) =

    FX

    (z y)P Y(d y), z .

    1.7 Exercise. Prove that the converse of Theorem1.14 does not hold.


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