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Products and Forecasts
- Examples and experiences
Yuejian Zhu and Hong Guan
Ensemble TeamEMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
Presents for NWP Forecast Training ClassMarch 31, 2015, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
Background• NDGD
– National Digit Guidance Database• Guidance's are produced from NWP output, post process and et al.
• NDFD– National Digit Forecast Database
• Forecasts are issued from WFO forecasters based on all different guidance
• Coverage and resolution– CONUS – 2.5km– Alaska – 3km– Hawaii – 2.5km– Puerto Rico – 2.5km– Guam – 2.5km
Elements Projections
1 12-hour Probability of Precipitation (PoP12) Every 12 hours, out to 168 hours
2 Apparent Temperature Every 3 hours out to 72 hoursEvery 6 hours out to 168 hours
3 Dew Point Every 3 hours out to 72 hoursEvery 6 hours out to 168 hours
4 Hazards Every hour out to 72 hoursEvery 6 hours out to 120 hours
5 Maximum Temperature Every 24 hours out to 168 hours
6 Minimum Temperature Every 24 hours out to 168 hours
7 Quantitative Precipitation Amount Every 6 hours out to 72 hours
8 Relative Humidity Every 3 hours out to 72 hoursEvery 6 hours out to 168 hours
9 Significant Wave Height Every 6 hours out to 120 hours
10 Sky Cover Every 3 hours out to 72 hoursEvery 6 hours out to 168 hours
11 Snow Amount Every 6 hours out to 48 hours
12 Temperature Every 3 hours out to 72 hoursEvery 6 hours out to 168 hours
13 Weather Every 3 hours out to 72 hoursEvery 6 hours out to 168 hours
14 Wind Direction Every 3 hours out to 72 hoursEvery 6 hours out to 168 hours
15 Wind Gust Every 3 hours out to 72 hours
16 Wind Speed Every 3 hours out to 72 hoursEvery 6 hours out to 168 hours
US NWS NDFD forecast elements and projections (2014)
High Impact Weather and Extreme Forecast
Hurricane Katrina (2005)
Hurricane Katrina (2005)
Early prediction:Friday – August 26NHC’s prediction
ECMWF ensemble forecast: Strike
probability from Friday – August 26
0-120 hours120km radius
Typhoon Morakot (2009)
Courtesy of Bill Kuo
Courtesy of Bill Kuo
10
Resolution makes difference for Typhoon Morakot
Ini: 2009080600
T126 ensemble
T190 ensemble
Ini: 2009080700
T126 ensemble
T190 ensemble
Most models do notmake right forecasts
Typhoon Megi (2010)
2010101512 2010101612
2010101712 2010101812
1. NCEP2. CMC3. ECMWF4. 3-ENS
Derecho (2012)
Date(s) June 29–30, 2012Duration ~18 hours (10:00 AM-4:00 AM)Track length ~800 MilesPeak wind gust 91 mph (Fort Wayne, Indiana)Largest hail 2.75 Inches (Bismarck, Illinois)Fatalities 28 fatalitiesDamage $2.9 billion[1]Areas affected United States Midwest,
United States Mid-Atlantic
A moderate risk area was issued by the SPC for the areas downstream of the derecho. It was later expanded eastward.
Derecho (2012)
Sandy Case Study for NEXT GEFSPeriod: 10/22 – 10/28/2012
Named: 10/23/2012
Yuejian ZhuEMC/NCEP
September 15 2014
Acknolegements: Dingchen Hou, Xiaqiong Zhou and Jiayi Peng
00UTC
20121022 (8 days)
Opr: T254L42(55km)
Para: T574L64(33km)
06UTC
Thick blue: ensemble
mean
Bimodality?
Red arrow means good
forecast
12UTC
20121022 (7.5 days)
Opr: T254L42(55km)
Para: T574L64(33km)
18UTC
Thick blue: ensemble
mean
Bimodality?
Opr: T254L42(55km)
Para: T574L64(33km)
20121026 (4 days)
00UTC
06UTC
Opr: T254L42(55km)
Para: T574L64(33km)
20121028 (2 days)
00UTC
06UTC
Short Summary for Sandy case• Higher resolution and new model improve the
forecast skill for most lead-time, especially for longer lead-time (day 7-8).
• Higher resolution and new model have excellent predictability around 8-days
• Bimodality of forecast tracks is clearly for early lead-time – around 30-32N
• Very good forecasts for short lead-time (less than 4-5 days) of both production and parallel
• Problem/concern:– Forecast inconsistency from cycle to cycle since initial
condition changes, especially for Oct. 23 - 24
March 6 2013 – winter storm “Saturn”Heavy, wet late season snowstorm likely to paste D.C., Mid-Atlantic Wednesday
Tuesday night to Wednesday night for potential of at least 5 inches of snow for entire region*
From 11:47 AMUpdate: 1:55PM
FEDERAL OFFICES in the Washington, DC, area are CLOSED. Emergency and telework-ready employees (employees with approved individual telework agreements) required to work must follow their agency’s policies, including their approved individual telework agreement
All Howard County public schools and offices are closed today, Wednesday, March 6, 2013. All evening activities in schools, both school-sponsored and community-sponsored, are canceled. This includes high school athletic practices and games.
Review of 2015 NE Blizzard01/26 12UTC – 01/27 12UTC 2015
Yuejian ZhuEMC/NCEP/NWS
Jan. 27 2015
Acknowledgements: Hong Guan, Yan Luo and Xiaxiong Zhou
ESRL’s EFI maps
WFO forecast (48 hours accumulation)
CCPA 24 hours accumulation (mm)ENDING 12 UTC 20150127 ENDING 12 UTC 20150128
Ensemble Forecast - Uncertainty
Small and large uncertainty.
1 day (large uncertainty) = 4 days (control) = 10-13 days (small uncertainty)
Toth and Zhu (2001)
Ensemble Based Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (PQPF)Valid: 2015012612 – 2015012712 Amount 24hr >25.4mm (1 inch)
PROD PARA
Initial Time
2015012400
2015012500
2015012600
NCEP GEFSPROD/PARA
Forecast difference
Ensemble Based Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (PQPF)Valid: 2015012612 – 2015012712 Amount 24hr >25.4mm (1 inch)
Initial Time
2015012100
2015012300
2015012200
PROD ECMWFPARA
Ensemble Based Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (PQPF)Valid: 2015012612 – 2015012712 Amount 24hr >25.4mm (1 inch)
PROD PARA
Initial Time
2015012400
2015012500
2015012600
ECMWF
Here is the differenceEC’s ensemble predicted 50%+ chance for 1 inch prcip over
NY city
NCEP GEFS failed on Oct. 3-4 2014
• First fail – 18UTC Oct. 3rd 2014 – Friday– No product for GEFS, SREF, Wave and NAEFS
• Second fail – 12UTC Oct. 4th 2014 – Saturday– Delayed 3hrs for all products and downstream
• Where is the problem?– Failed on first integration time step
• Point to short wave radiation
– In fact, the problem is longwave radiation code• secdiff(j) = a0(j) + a1(j) * exp( a2(j)*pwvcm) < 0.0• It was never happened before
– Protect – cost?• Morning of Oct. 10th 2014 – Friday
– Announced we found a problem
The art of good forecasting
•
经验预报 Meteorologist
最好的预报 Modified NWP forecast
A
A2 持续性预报 Persistence最好的数值预报
World Best NWP