1Prof. Akio Morishima

Asian Role in Global Climate Policy

Professor Akio MorishimaChair, Japan Climate Policy Centre Special Research Advisor for IGES

18 October 2008

World Academy of Art and Science: General Assembly 2008 Aalankrita Resort and Conference Center, Hyderabad, India

2

　 Asia and the Pacific Today

Diverse and Rapidly Changing Dynamics and Vulnerability Asia and Climate Policy

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　 Asia and the Pacific 　

Population: 4 billion people, 60 % of World Population

Land mass: 24% of the world land mass

Forest area: 14% of the world forest area

GDP growth rate since the 80s: remained over 6% (while the annual world GDP growth rates fluctuated between 2-3%)

4

Rapid Economic Growth (1)

Source: East-West Center

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

GDP　($　trillions)

Gross　Domestic　Product　($　trillions,　yr.　2000)GDP　per　Capita　($US,　yr.　2000)

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

GD

P p

er Cap

ita ($U

S)

5

Rapid Economic Growth (2)

Source: East-West Center

•The Annual GDP growth rate in the region least 20 years is over 6%

•But economic growth rate is uneven among countries.

•Income inequality has increased not only among countries but also within a country.

•800 million people who live on less than one dollar a day still live in this region.

6

Economic Development EstimatesGDP outlook

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030year

Billi

on 2

000

USD (in

mar

ket

exch

ange

rat

es)

other Asia (total) (+Australia/ NZ)BrazilIndiaChinaJ apanOECD EuropeUnited States

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

7

Demographic Expansion (1)

"Sustainable Asia 2005 and Beyond - In the pursuit of innovative policies" IGES(2005)

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Demographic Expansion (2)

"Sustainable Asia 2005 and Beyond - In the pursuit of innovative policies" IGES(2005)

•Urbanization

•9 out of 23 mega cities with over 10 million inhabitants in the world exist in the region.

•Hundreds of large cities with millions inhabitants scatter all over the region.

•Most of the large cities do not have infrastructure to provide residents with minimum social and sanitary services.

•These large cities face urban environmental problems

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　 Growing Energy Demand (1)Primary Energy Consumption

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

year

Qua

drill

ion

Btu

other Asia (total) (+Australia/ NZ)BrazilIndiaChinaJ apanOECD EuropeUnited States

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

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　 Growing Energy Demand (2)

The fourth Global Environment Outlook: environment for development (GEO-4) (2007)

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Increasing CO2 emissions (1)

The fourth Global Environment Outlook: environment for development (GEO-4) (2007)

12

CO2 emissions

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1990 2003 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

year

Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons

Car

bon

Dio

xide

other Asia (total) (+Australia/ NZ)BrazilIndiaChinaJ apanOECD EuropeUnited States

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Increasing CO2 emissions(2)

13 European Communities (2003)

Increasing CO2 emissions 　 (3)

14

26.2Gt-CO2;　2004

Increasing CO2 Emission (4)

40.5Gt-CO2;　2030India

J apan

EU

China

USA

Others

3.9Gt

4.6Gt

5.9Gt 7.3Gt

10.2Gt

4.3Gt

3.3Gt

12.7Gt8.2Gt

1.1Gt 1.3Gt 1.2Gt

Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 (International Energy Agency)

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Estimated Key Impacts in Asia by Global Warming

Category Key Impacts

Agriculture 30% decline of crop production by 2050, resulting in a higher rate of starvation in south Asia

Water Disappearance of glacier in the Tibetan Plateau by 4 km due to the increase of air temperature by 3 degrees. Yearly water supply of India will decrease from 1820m3 to 1140m3 by 2050, affecting 1 hundred million people of India.

Health Increase in rates of outbreak of Cholera in south Asia and of diarrhea across Asia.

Costal/Marine/Ecology

Disappearance of 2500 km2 of Mangrove forests due to 1 meter Sea-level rise 　 Higher risk of floods in 5000 km2 watershed of Red River Delta and 15-20,000 km2 watershed of Mekong River Disappearance of Coral reef by 30% in Asia in next 30 years

Source: IPCC, 2007

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GHG mitigation potentials in 2020

“Second IGES White Paper Climate Change Policies in the Asia-Pacific:Re-uniting Climate Change and Sustainable Development " IGES(2008)

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END

Thank you for your attention.

Professor Akio MorishimaChair, Japan Climate Policy Centre Special Research Advisor for IGES

morishima@jcpc.or.jp