Climate change and planning in the Australian Capital Region

Prof Barbara NormanFoundation Chair Urban and Regional Planning Director CURFUniversity of Canberra

Presentation to AMOS 18 July 2013, Canberra

Outline

Projections by the Climate Commission for the Australian Capital Region indicate increased temperatures, further sea level rise and an increasing risk of bush fires.

Recent research indicates that regional collaboration will be required in planning for climate change.

A 'winding back' of relevant policy by the NSW Government has now made that challenge more difficult.

ACT sources of emissions

Greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (ACT)

zero net greenhouse gas emissions by 2060

peaking per person greenhouse gas emissions by 2013

40% below 1990 levels by 2020, and

80% below 1990 levels by 2050.

Adapting to a changing climate

Climate variable Projected trend

Daily maximum temperature Increase – more very hot days, with daytime temperatures in summer possibly increasing more than the daytime temperatures in winter.

Daily minimum temperature Increase – more warm nights, with night-time temperatures in winter possibly increasing more than night-time temperatures in summer.

Heatwaves Increase.

Frost days Decrease.

Storm frequency and intensity Projections uncertain. Overall decline in rainfall. Summer rainfall may decrease. Winter rainfall may increase and with increased intensity.

Drought frequency and intensity Likely to increase with decreasing rainfall, increasing potential evaporation and increasing maximum temperature.

Bushfire frequency and intensity Likely to increase with decreasing rainfall, decreasing humidity and increasing maximum temperature.

Strategies in the ACTReducing residential sector emissions

6 actions

Reducing non-residential sector emissions

3 actions

Reducing transport sector emissions1 action

Reducing waste sector emissions1 action

Transitioning to large-scale renewable energy

3 actions

Adapting to a changing climate3 actions

Monitoring, reporting and future decision making

1 action

Implications for planning

Recent initiatives Transport such as light rail and Northbourne Ave Renewable energy including solar farm Built environment – Nishi; City to Lake, Bushfire and planning

Adaptation measures still being developed We need an adaptation action plan that

requires climate change to be considered in all land use planning and infrastructure decisions

Climate change in the south east

The science indicates that by 2030 the region may experience:

increased temperatures (virtually certain) changes in the pattern of rainfall (likely), further sea -level rise (virtually certain), an increasing risk of coastal inundation and

erosion (highly likely) and an increasing risk of bushfires (highly likely)’

(Norman et al 2013, South East Coastal Adaptation, NCCARF)

South Coast Adaptation Report

Coastal inundation Batemans Bay

Coastal erosion, SurfsidePhoto: Eurobodalla Shire CouncilCoastal storm damage

Photo: Barbara Norman

Coastal development

Photos: Barbara Norman

7 key messages from the research1. The region is already living with extreme weather events

2. By 2030 the region may experience increased temperatures, changes in the pattern of rainfall, further sea level rise, an increasing risk of coastal inundation, bushfires and a scarcity of potable water

3. Small settlements with ageing communities that are vulnerable due to physical isolation

4. Significant economic change resulting in relatively high youth unemployment in some locations

5. Green growth opportunities include smart infrastructure and coast and marine activity building on current regional strengths

6. The need for improved governance mechanisms to implement long term adaptation measures

7. A demand for information at the regional level by decision makers

Principles for climate adapted coastal town 2030

Principle 1An integrated approach should be adopted for sustainable regional and local planning (social, economic, environmental and cultural). The approach should consider the catchment–to coast–to marine continuum and the different levels of government and stakeholders involved in planning and implementation.

Principle 2The precautionary principle to decision making should be applied to the location of new and redeveloped urban settlement and infrastructure and other relevant decisions, particularly where environmental risk currently or potentially exists. Open space should be a key consideration to allow for adaptation (coastal retreat, heat absorption, green infrastructure).

Principle 3Risk management approaches should be incorporated into local and regional strategies for coastal settlements responding to climate and environmental change including progressive learning from experience to ensure adaptability. This should be underpinned by the best science on climate change, socio-economic trends and an understanding of local community circumstances.

Principle 4Appropriate forums should be established at the regional level to enable collaboration across institutions at the local and regional level. Governance mechanisms that facilitate intergovernmental agreement on policy directions (shared vision) and integration of policy decisions (implementation) are fundamental to coastal adaptation. This aligns with the findings of the recommendations of the House of Representatives report – Managing our coastal zone in a changing climate: the time to act is now. 

Principles for climate adapted coastal town 2030

Principle 5There should be an ongoing process of community engagement. This needs to be informed by the latest science, in developing and regularly reviewing coastal urban plans to gain community support, and where possible support by all levels of government and across government agencies.  Principle 6The skills and knowledge of regional and local communities should be connected by relevant organisations to provide a foundation for long-term research, co-production of knowledge and monitoring of coastal urban futures. Regional communities and practitioners could engage on a periodic basis with Australia’s leading scientific research organisations to discuss the most up-to-date scientific knowledge on the risks of climate change and its implications for adaptation strategies.

Principle 7A process of continuous monitoring, evaluation and reporting of adaptation actions should be implemented to ensure ‘learning by doing’ and to avoid past mistakes. The impacts of climate change on the coastal environment will require more attention to evaluating impacts of adaptation measures over time.

Building capacity in the region

Photos above left and top right : Vivian Straw; Photo top right: Barbara Norman

Narooma News 17 July 2013

Implications for planning

1. NSW white paper on planning and 2 explanatory instruments do not mention climate change

2. NSW Government dissolving catchment management end of 2013

3. Sea level rise policy has been devolved to local councils

4. Insurance industry now partnering with local councils to manage risk (Shire of Bega)

5. Councils adopting a risk management approach in the absence of a policy framework

6. Renewable energy initiatives experiencing community objections

7. South East Regional Organisation of Councils (SEROC)

CURF website (www.curf.com.au )

CURF: next steps

ACT government grant for 2 years

Building research partnerships and networks for regional platform

Sharing knowledge/research social media

Building on 4 themes Human settlement and infrastructure Sustainability and climate change Health and wellbeing Sustainable economic futures

Conclusions

Understanding the science is just the beginning…

Reform of the planning system required to respond to climate change – NSW and the ACT

Support needed for skilling up the professionals and elected officials

Regional collaborative research necessary on climate change involving government and private sector partners

Better sharing of knowledge important to influence public policy outcomes on the ground