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Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 1Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 1
A Short Overview of the IPCC Report on
Climate Change Mitigation 2007 (WG III)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
Universität Flensburg
Vice Chair WG III IPCC
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 2Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 2
Structure of the presentation
• Anthropogenic climate change• New results on climate change in 2007
(WG I)• New results on climate change mitigation
2007 (WG III):– The need for mitigation– The timeframe for mitigation– The means for mitigation– The cost of mitigation
• Mitigation and innovation• Conclusions
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 3Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 3
Anthropogenic climate change
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 4Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 4
The greenhouse effect
JTH 17-07-2001 12 COP6bis/SBSTA
The Greenhouse Effect
Solar radiation
Long-wave radiation
Source: Houghton 2001
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 5Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 5
Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM, p. 3)
Anthropogenic Influences on Climate Change
CO2, CH4 and N2O Concentrations
- far exceed pre-industrial values- increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities
Relatively little variation beforethe industrial era
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 6Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 6
New results on climate change in 2007 (WG I)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 7Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 7
CO2
CH4
Long term changes in THG concentrations
The atmospheric concentration of CO2 and CH4 in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years
Source: Pachauri und Jallow, 6.2.2007
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 8Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 8
Global GHG emissions 1970 - 2004
Source: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, p. 4)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 9Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 9
Structure of global GHG emissions in 2004
Source: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, p. 4)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 10Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 10
Regional distribution of per capita GHG emissions in 2004
Source: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, p. 8)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 11Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 11
Increased global temperature change
Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I TS p, 37)
Wärmste 12 Jahre seit 1850:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,20
06, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,20
00
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 12Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 12
Different Scales
Arctic vs Global annual temperature anomalies (°C)
Source: Pachauri und Jallow, 6.2.2007
Warming in the Arctic is double that for the globe from 19th to 21st century and from late 1960s to present.
Warmth 1925 to 1950 in Arctic was not as widespread as recent global warmth.
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 13Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 13
Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I TSp.62)
Anthropogenic and natural forcings
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 14Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 14
Components of radiative forcingComponents of radiative forcing
Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM p.4)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 15Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 15
New results on climate change mitigation 2007:• The need for mitigation
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 16Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 16
Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM p.14)
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C).
Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 17Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 17
New results on climate change mitigation 2007:• The timeframe for mitigation
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 18Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 18
New stabilization scenarios
Source: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, p. 19)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 19Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 19
Emissions for stabilization levels of 445 – 570ppmv CO2eq.
Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 23)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 20Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 20
Arctic ice loss faster than forecast by AR4
Quelle: Stroeve et al. 2007 S.2
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 21Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 21
New results on climate change mitigation 2007:• The means for mitigation
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 22Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 22
Global economic mitigation potential 2030
Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 11)
Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 10)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 23Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 23
Global sectoral economic mitigation potential 2030
Quelle: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 14)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 24Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 24
Contributions to cumulated emission reductions until 2030 and 2100 - 650 and 490-550ppmv CO2-eq
Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, S. p5)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer:
IPAC: Policy Assessment Model for China
IMAGE: Integrated Model of Global Climate Change (RIMV)
MESSAGE: IIASA integrated modelling framework
AIM: Asian-Pacific Integrated Model
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer:
IPAC: Policy Assessment Model for China
IMAGE: Integrated Model of Global Climate Change (RIMV)
MESSAGE: IIASA integrated modelling framework
AIM: Asian-Pacific Integrated Model
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 25Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 25
Mitigation potential in the energy sector by 2030
Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 17)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 26Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 26
Mitigation potential in the energy sector by 2030
Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 17/18)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 27Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 27
New results on climate change mitigation 2007:• The cost of mitigation
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 28Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 28
Global macro-economic mitigation costs for 2030 and 2050
source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 15)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 29Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 29
Global macro-economic mitigation costs for 2030 and 2050
Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 26)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 30Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 30
Mitigation and innovation
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 31Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 31
Technology development, innovation and mitigation
Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. 24)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 32Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 32
Conclusions
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 33Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 33
Conclusions
• Climate change is developing faster than we thought
• GHG concentrations need to be stabilized at even lower levels (455 – 490 ppmvCO2eq) to avoid serious damages
•
• The necessary mitigation technologies are available
• Mitigations costs need to be further reduced
• Mitigation will be cheaper than thought before
• Innovation will play a crucial role in cost reductions
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 34Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer IPCC AR4 (2007) Results WG III Folie 34
Thank you for your attention!