Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

Climate Change and Creating a Sustainable Future for GuildfordGuildford Environmental Forum - 30th June 2010

Professor Roland Clift

Centre for Environmental Strategy

University of Surrey

President of the International Society for Industrial Ecology

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

EHRLICH

I - human impact on the environmentP - populationA - affluence (interpreted as level of

resource consumption per capita)T - technology (the way in which wealth,

in the material sense, is created)

I = P x A x T

(Source: P. Ehrlich and J. Holdren (1971)“Impacts of population growth”Science 171, pp. 1212-1217

THE IPAT RELATIONSHIP

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AND TEMPERATURE: EVIDENCE FROM ICE CORES

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

PER-CAPITA CO2 EMISSIONS, 1996(Tonnes)

United States 20 Canada 14 Russia 11 Germany 10 United Kingdom 9 Japan 9 Mexico 4 India 1 World 4 Developed Countries 13 Developing Countries 2

“Contract & Converge” 3.6

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

CARBON CYCLES

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

CARBON CYCLES

Renewable: carbon removed from atmosphere by growing plants and trees, by photosynthesis; may be subsequently returned to atmosphere

Non-renewable: carbon dioxide released byburning fossil fuels

CAUTION: The biosphere cannot sequester the lithosphere...

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

ENERGY USE

DIRECT:

transport, heating, appliances

INDIRECT:

“embodied” in what we consume

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

DIRECT ENERGY USE - UK

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

Carbon dioxide emissions by end user in the UK, 2004

4%

40%

29%

28% Public Sector

Business

Transport(including freight)Residential

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

Residential carbon dioxide emissions, 2003:

5%

53%22%

20%Cooking

Space heating

Lights andappliances

Water heating

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

STEP 1.

• Insulate your home

• Use low-carbon heat supply..?

• Use low-energy devices and lighting

• Switch things off

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

DIRECT ENERGY USE - UK

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

MODES OF PASSENGER TRANSPORT(N.B. Rough indicative figures only!)

Per passenger:

1km by air is equivalent to

1km in a car shared with 1 other person

is equivalent to

10km in a high speed train

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

MODES OF FREIGHT TRANSPORT(N.B. Rough indicative figures only!)

Per tonne of freight:

1km by air

is equivalent to:

20 to 100 km by rail

is equivalent to:

200 km by ship

RCEP, 2002 : “..air freight is so much more environmentally damaging…that it must be regarded as a particular luxury reserved for very high value, and usually perishable goods.”

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

RCEP, 2002

“…… air freight is so much more environmentally damaging… that it must be regarded as a particular luxury for very high value…and usually perishable goods”.

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

CO2 emissions allocated to high level functional uses for an average UK household (2004)

Space heating, 15%

Household, 12%

Food & catering, 15%

Clothing & footwear, 11%Health & Hygiene, 8%

Recreation & Leisure, 26%

Education, 2%

Communications, 1%

Commuting, 9%

ReferenceDruckman, A. and T. Jackson (2009). “The carbon footprint of UK households 1990-2004: a socio-economically disaggregated, quasi-multiregional input-output model.” Ecological Economics (in press).

DIRECT AND INDIRECT GHG EMISSIONS

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

FIRST USE

Material and Energy

Extraction

Waste Management

Manufacturing Distribution Use

EARTH

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

ACCUMULATION OF ECONOMIC VALUE AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ALONG THE SUPPLY CHAIN – MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS

1: Resource extraction2: Processing & Refining3: Manufacturing4: Retail and distribution

ENVIRONMENTALIMPACT

4

2

1

0ADDED VALUE or

CONTRIBUTION TOGDP

3

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

Stylized representation of the distinction between “absolute” and “relative” decoupling

Source: UNEP Decoupling assessment report (Zero draft, 19 May 2009)

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

Achieving decoupling in the Netherlands: 1985-2010

Source: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and National Institute forPublic Health and the Environment 2005

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

SECTOR: “WEARING APPAREL”

Notes:

1. Zeroth tier corresponds to manufacturing the garment; 1st tier corresponds to inputs to zeroth tier etc.

2. Shaded area shows range of all sectors for both UK and China. “…there are only a few…sectors with higher convexity than UK production of wearing apparel”.

(Reproduced from Hogne Nersund Larsen, 2007)

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

Where does this point?

A redefinition of quality or luxury…

EQUITY includes:

– Equity along the supply chain

– Equity of access to “environmental services” between affluent and poor

This requires consumption in affluent societies to have low environmental impact per dollar spent and to provide social and economic benefits along the supply chain:

The “Fair Trade” principle and beyond…

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

Added Value A

Eq

uiv

alen

t C

O2

Dorset Hampshire Portugal USA

WATERCRESS FROM THE UK, USA & PORTUGAL

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

LOOK AT SOURCING OF FOODS

- “Food Miles” are irrelevant: - how was it transported - avoid anything transported by air freight

- Read the “carbon footprint”- It can differ widely between different sources

- Favour local, seasonal produce

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

Gucci is good for the earth

and

Angels wear Prada

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

And the devil shops at IKEA

Prof Roland Clift, Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES)

Multiple points for interference in the GH Effect

Source: NASA