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PROFESOR ÁRPÁD KOVÁCS UNIVERSITY OF SZEGED FISCAL COUNCIL HUNGARIAN ECONOMISTS...

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PROFESOR ÁRPÁD KOVÁCS UNIVERSITY OF SZEGED FISCAL COUNCIL HUNGARIAN ECONOMISTS ASSOCIATION. Economic performance of Germany Central and Eastern European countries closing the gap The Hungarian Viewpoint. 2013 spring. Table of contents. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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  • Economic performance of GermanyCentral and Eastern European countries closing the gap The Hungarian Viewpoint

    PROFESOR RPD KOVCSUNIVERSITY OF SZEGED

    FISCAL COUNCILHUNGARIAN ECONOMISTS ASSOCIATION

    2013 spring

  • Snapshot: Economic forecasts of 2013 in Hungary and the surrounding countries, fiscal environments

    Broader outlook: Business contexts home and abroad, the pull of the german economy

    Hopes and chances: The possibility of a virtous circle, conditions of stability and growth in Hungary and surrounding countriesTable of contents

  • Snapshot: Economic forecasts of 2013 in Hungary and the surrounding countries, fiscal environments

    2. Broader outlook: Business contexts home and abroad, the pull of the german economy

    Hopes and chances: The possibility of a virtous circle, conditions of stability and growth in Hungary and surrounding countries.

    Table of contents

  • According to the European Council, the CEE countries look forward to a better yearSource: European Commission (EC), *: EC Winter 2013 macroeconomic forecast (February 2013); annual average changes, %; except unemployment (%)Growth can become strongerInflation rates can sinkBut unemployment rates can stay relatively highExportdynamics can speed up significantly

  • Since the autumn forecast of the EU, growth outlooks have worsened, so the fiscal plans look less bright as wellSource: European Commission (EC), Autumn 2012 forecast November 2012; Winter 2013 forecast February 2013Change in growth forecasts (year/year, %)Fiscal forecasts (as a % of GDP)

  • 1,601,511,073,244,003,882,123,926,446,653,4413,331,775,334,542,011,301,562,101,431,604,675,347,25Source: EUROSTATYields of long term government bonds in the EU27 countries, 2012 december, %A welcome sight, that due to the low international rates, investors are looking for government bonds with relatively high rates

  • thus the CDS spreads could decrease. It also warns us that the attention of the investors can quickly changeSource: KK, REUTERS

    Yields of 10 year government bonds (%)CDS spreads (basepoint)

  • Snapshot: Economic forecasts of 2013 in Hungary and the surrounding countries, fiscal environments

    Broader outlook: Business contexts home and abroad, the pull of the german economy

    Hopes and chances: The possibility of a virtous circle, conditions of stability and growth in Hungary and surrounding countriesTable of contents

  • Foreign Trade between Hungary and Germany, Austria; investments from said countries to HungarySource: MNB, KSHHungarys foreign trade with Germany and Austria (EUR bn) (bzispont)Foreign direct investment in Hungary (EUR bn)Export ranking (2012):

    Germany 1stRomania 2ndSlovakia 3rdAustria 4th

    Import ranking (2012):

    Germany 1stRussia 2ndAustria 3rd

    Invesments ranking (2012):

    Germany 1stThe Netherlands 2ndAustria 3rd

  • Source:EUROSTAT

    Import

    0.03033918790.02822265010.02828783080.02864300230.0302496327

    0.0048138980.00424056410.00397706060.00414003470.0046866816

    0.04708406810.04717383320.05020798680.05276751130.0530518959

    0.00234559950.00158459070.00186036160.002101490.0023404502

    0.00403579650.00304270590.00330990010.00371807580.004049176

    0.00227501270.00162806530.00178557570.00223977410.0025077682

    0.06534231330.06161823940.06710549890.06847974680.0656819404

    0.01515724740.0137886610.01396260190.01535096580.0157244259

    0.00695814650.00641794980.00652007770.00684204610.0066735771

    0.01596655470.01417778260.01586091120.01741568120.0182439511

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    Import from Germany in the EU10 countries, % of total German Import

    Export

    0.03694815570.03449168750.03479201070.03436745940.0340386509

    0.00261070310.0030066890.00320841030.00407763360.0036061279

    0.05753029640.05986002640.0627754390.06526909870.0648315292

    0.00080988920.00090039220.00087927010.00095288080.0009571716

    0.00217245050.00260055330.00299246690.00324521780.0030432386

    0.00098536430.00102581220.00113184930.00124231520.0013090169

    0.0547689230.05824239570.06084046930.06123538860.0608070564

    0.01044200260.01238282660.01308590420.01458244960.0142033534

    0.00817549980.00829821680.00823431470.0086036170.0084717903

    0.01779570030.01789258870.0179771660.0198772010.0226559746

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    Export to Germany from the EU10 countries, % of total German Export

    Data

    EU27 Trade Since 1988 By SITC [DS-018995]

    Extracted on21.03.13

    Source of dataEurostat

    PARTNERGERMANY

    PRODUCTTOTAL

    INDICATORSVALUE_IN_EUROSrszarnyok

    import NmetorszgblImport

    FLOWREPORTER/PERIODJan.-Dec. 2008Jan.-Dec. 2009Jan.-Dec. 2010Jan.-Dec. 2011Jan.-Dec. 201220082009201020112012

    IMPORTHUNGARY18,828,269,26213,790,993,32315,908,904,86217,545,884,02018,303,038,3123.0%2.8%2.8%2.9%3.0%

    IMPORTBULGARIA2,987,468,4782,072,150,9612,236,674,8262,536,066,8592,835,753,8560.5%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.5%

    IMPORTCZECH REPUBLIC (CS->1992)29,220,014,52223,051,485,86328,236,667,97032,323,868,27932,099,923,1144.7%4.7%5.0%5.3%5.3%

    IMPORTESTONIA1,455,661,183774,310,0031,046,256,1291,287,312,6511,416,127,9180.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%

    IMPORTLITHUANIA2,504,584,6261,486,817,7231,861,467,8032,277,586,9102,450,020,6040.4%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.4%

    IMPORTLATVIA1,411,855,591795,553,8521,004,196,9921,372,021,5411,517,366,4510.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.3%

    IMPORTPOLAND40,550,942,65730,109,742,58337,739,726,55941,948,734,38739,741,939,4836.5%6.2%6.7%6.8%6.6%

    IMPORTROMANIA9,406,472,4196,737,826,9477,852,482,8379,403,562,6069,514,322,7771.5%1.4%1.4%1.5%1.6%

    IMPORTSLOVENIA4,318,172,7913,136,130,0963,666,852,2314,191,241,7364,037,957,7290.7%0.6%0.7%0.7%0.7%

    IMPORTSLOVAKIA9,908,722,4206,927,971,1298,920,080,47810,668,348,20211,038,802,9721.6%1.4%1.6%1.7%1.8%

    IMPORTEU27620,592,393,858488,649,836,137562,393,949,264612,571,400,504605,066,465,096100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%

    Export

    export Nmetorszgba20082009201020112012

    EXPORTHUNGARY19,577,859,70815,147,495,19217,986,965,11319,850,516,85620,073,923,3943.7%3.4%3.5%3.4%3.4%

    EXPORTBULGARIA1,383,343,1651,320,428,5131,658,701,6212,355,226,0382,126,674,6120.3%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.4%

    EXPORTCZECH REPUBLIC (CS->1992)30,483,796,84826,288,347,37832,453,991,80737,699,188,85738,233,687,7635.8%6.0%6.3%6.5%6.5%

    EXPORTESTONIA429,139,093395,419,502454,569,900550,380,396564,481,5120.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%

    EXPORTLITHUANIA1,151,124,5971,142,068,4501,547,061,9971,874,425,7181,794,716,7890.2%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%

    EXPORTLATVIA522,118,749450,499,415585,149,700717,556,667771,978,4730.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%

    EXPORTPOLAND29,020,617,43625,577,942,79231,453,640,54435,369,332,91635,860,298,7975.5%5.8%6.1%6.1%6.1%

    EXPORTROMANIA5,532,943,6035,438,087,2456,765,222,7318,422,768,7228,376,272,8731.0%1.2%1.3%1.5%1.4%

    EXPORTSLOVENIA4,331,983,1783,644,275,1334,257,021,2884,969,417,2044,996,145,9820.8%0.8%0.8%0.9%0.8%

    EXPORTSLOVAKIA9,429,475,3527,857,774,4599,293,934,18611,480,997,43913,361,114,1021.8%1.8%1.8%2.0%2.3%

    EXPORTEU27529,873,801,649439,163,644,828516,985,501,383577,596,284,246589,739,101,074100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%

  • Source:EUROSTAT

    Import

    0.03033918790.02822265010.02828783080.02864300230.0302496327

    0.0048138980.00424056410.00397706060.00414003470.0046866816

    0.04708406810.04717383320.05020798680.05276751130.0530518959

    0.00234559950.00158459070.00186036160.002101490.0023404502

    0.00403579650.00304270590.00330990010.00371807580.004049176

    0.00227501270.00162806530.00178557570.00223977410.0025077682

    0.06534231330.06161823940.06710549890.06847974680.0656819404

    0.01515724740.0137886610.01396260190.01535096580.0157244259

    0.00695814650.00641794980.00652007770.00684204610.0066735771

    0.01596655470.01417778260.01586091120.01741568120.0182439511

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    Import from Germany in the EU10 countries, % of total German Import

    Export

    0.03694815570.03449168750.03479201070.03436745940.0340386509

    0.00261070310.0030066890.00320841030.00407763360.0036061279

    0.05753029640.05986002640.0627754390.06526909870.0648315292

    0.00080988920.00090039220.00087927010.00095288080.0009571716

    0.00217245050.00260055330.00299246690.00324521780.0030432386

    0.00098536430.00102581220.00113184930.00124231520.0013090169

    0.0547689230.05824239570.06084046930.06123538860.0608070564

    0.01044200260.01238282660.01308590420.01458244960.0142033534

    0.00817549980.00829821680.00823431470.0086036170.0084717903

    0.01779570030.01789258870.0179771660.0198772010.0226559746

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    Export to Germany from the EU10 countries, % of total German Export

    Data

    EU27 Trade Since 1988 By SITC [DS-018995]

    Extracted on21.03.13

    Source of dataEurostat

    PARTNERGERMANY

    PRODUCTTOTAL

    INDICATORSVALUE_IN_EUROSrszarnyok

    import NmetorszgblImport

    FLOWREPORTER/PERIODJan.-Dec. 2008Jan.-Dec. 2009Jan.-Dec. 2010Jan.-Dec. 2011Jan.-Dec. 201220082009201020112012

    IMPORTHUNGARY18,828,269,26213,790,993,32315,908,904,86217,545,884,02018,303,038,3123.0%2.8%2.8%2.9%3.0%

    IMPORTBULGARIA2,987,468,4782,072,150,9612,236,674,8262,536,066,8592,835,753,8560.5%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.5%

    IMPORTCZECH REPUBLIC (CS->1992)29,220,014,52223,051,485,86328,236,667,97032,323,868,27932,099,923,1144.7%4.7%5.0%5.3%5.3%

    IMPORTESTONIA1,455,661,183774,310,0031,046,256,1291,287,312,6511,416,127,9180.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%

    IMPORTLITHUANIA2,504,584,6261,486,817,7231,861,467,8032,277,586,9102,450,020,6040.4

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