PROFESSOR JOHN D NELSONDIRECTOR, CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH, COLLEGE OF PHYSICAL SCIENCES, UNIVERSITY OF ABERDEEN

PROFESSOR JOHN D NELSONDIRECTOR, CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT RESEARCH, COLLEGE OF PHYSICAL SCIENCES, UNIVERSITY OF ABERDEEN

Public Transport, climate change and the economy

SFC Workshop, 28th September 2009

www.abdn.ac.uk/ctr

Agenda

10:30-11:15 Public transport and the National Performance FrameworkJohn Nelson, CTR, University of Aberdeen

11:15 Coffee break11:30-12:45 The contribution of public transport to the

national climate change strategy.Terri Vogt, FirstGroupComment by Jillian Anable, CTR

12:45 Lunch13:30-14.15 Public Transport in a Recession

Tom Rye, TRi, Edinburgh Napier University14:15-15:30 Panel Discussion (including tea break)

Knowledge Exchange (SFC)Transport and Scotland’s economic and climate change

objectives: public policy knowledge exchange

• Objectives– To strengthen the connections between those in Government and public

agencies responsible for the Transport, Infrastructure and Climate Change (ministerial portfolio) and those concerned with transport's role as part of the strategy for sustainable economic growth (Cabinet Secretary's portfolio);

– To develop transport policy options in relation to the forthcoming UK and Scottish Climate Change bills and the UK Climate Change Committee’s recommendations to government on the first three Climate Change budgets; and

– To understand how public policy can be improved to increase the potential for achieving targets for transport within the Scottish Climate Change Programme.

• Academic partners:– Edinburgh Napier University (Lead) with Aberdeen University and Glasgow

University

• Public Sector partners:– Strathclyde Partnership for Transport– South East Scotland Transport Partnership

Public Transport and the National Performance

Framework

John Nelson and Jillian AnableCentre for Transport Research

www.abdn.ac.uk/ctr

So many possibilities…

Transport for Quality of Life

Smart ChoicesProgramme

Workplace travelteam (covering WTPs, car-sharing, telework)

Over-arching travel awareness campaign

(unified branding)

Partnership with operators to market

bus and railPersonalised

travel planning

School travel plans team

Innovative projects –car clubs, home shopping

National Performance Framework(May 2007)

• The Government’s Purpose

• Purpose Targets

• 5 Strategic Objectives

• 15 National Outcomes

• 45 National Indicators

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/scotPerforms

Purpose

“To focus the Government and public services on creating a more successful

country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing

sustainable economic growth”

Purpose TargetsIndicator Target

GDP Growth To raise the growth rate to the UK level by 2011 To match the growth rate of small independent EU countries by 2017

Productivity To rank in the top quartile for productivity amongst our key trading partners of the OECD by 2017

Population Growth

To match average European (EU15) population growth over the period from 2007 to 2017, supported by increased healthy life expectancy in Scotland over this period

Solidarity To increase overall income and the proportion of income earned by the three lowest three income deciles as a group by 2017

Cohesion To narrow the gap in participation between Scotland’s best and worst performing regions by 2017

Participation To maintain our position on labour market participation as the top performing country in the UK and to close the gap with the top 5 OECD economies by 2017

Sustainability To reduce emissions over the period to 2011. To reduce emissions by 80% by 2050.

How are we doing?

The role of transport in the NPF

• Transport plays a critical role in meeting the Scottish Government’s Purpose. An efficient transport system is one of the key enablers for enhancing productivity and delivering faster, more sustainable economic growth. Enhancing Scotland’s transport infrastructure and service provision can help open up new markets, increase access to employment and help build a critical mass of business that can drive up competitiveness and deliver growth.

Strategic Objectives• Wealthier & Fairer – Enable businesses and people to increase

their wealth and more people to share fairly in that wealth;

• Smarter – Expand opportunities for Scots to succeed from nurture through to life long learning ensuring higher and more widely shared achievements;

• Healthier – Help people to sustain and improve their health, especially in disadvantaged communities, ensuring better, local and faster access to health care;

• Safer & Stronger – Help local communities to flourish, becoming

stronger, safer places to live, offering improved opportunities and a better quality of life; and

• Greener – Improve Scotland’s natural and built environment and the sustainable use and enjoyment of it.

All addressed in the 5th STAR Conference, May 2009

The National Outcomes

The Indicators

• The 45 indicators are used to measure progress against the 5 strategic objectives and the 15 national outcomes

• Mixture of many types of targets and indicators, from existing targets to those which were set down by legislation to some which were not currently measureable

Transport Indicators• Reduce the proportion of driver journeys delayed due to traffic

congestion– We want to create a Scotland that is the most attractive place for doing

business in Europe. Longer and unpredictable journey times, for cars, freight and public transport users, have significant economic impacts (both from higher direct costs of transport and the cost to business of a loss of competitiveness) and cause higher levels of emissions impairing both local and global air quality as well as contributing to climate change. [Performance Improving]

• Increase the proportion of journeys to work made by public or active transport– The indicator concerns those journeys to work that are by public

transport or require some form of activity, such as walking or cycling. Essentially, we want to encourage a shift from the car, particularly for short journeys, across the whole population. Not only will this reduce congestion and improve health by reducing harmful emissions, it will enable people in Scotland to live longer and healthier lives by making it easier to incorporate physical activity into daily routines. [Performance Improving]

Single Outcome Agreements

• 32 local authorities

• Agreed set of outcomes and indicators agreed for each (not necessarily all 15)

• Indicators support the outcomes and measure progress

The problem with Indicators: Questions for Discussion

• Few indicators measure outcomes – most are process or output / result based

• How best to measure? How to attribute to the LA? Spatial / temporal coverage may vary

• The public transport indicator relates only to mode split for journey to work. Can this be deemed sufficient?

Modelling and policy aren’t always at the same hierarchical level

Indicators describe the “universe” at an operational level, whereas

policy is mostly strategic

A key methodological issue

STRATEGIC

TACTICAL

OPERATIONAL

To ensure consistency and effectiveness of policy action To ensure consistency and effectiveness of policy action

impact and feedback assessment are requiredimpact and feedback assessment are required

Co

nsi

sten

cy

Source: FP6 TOOLQIT project: http://www.tis.pt/proj/toolqit/ficheiros/entrada.html

Other methodological issues

• Understand and agree the terminology:– An output [e.g. increased bus pass-km] is

different to a result [e.g. improved accessibility] …

• Issues of sampling

• Identify lines of responsibility and budgets for data collection

• Keep it simple…

Conclusions

• Indicators should support decision-making and inform policy

• Indicators should be transparent and feasible to collect

• Indicators should be seen as a learning tool for practitioners and researchers

• Indicators should enable transferability of findings

Contact Details

• Professor John Nelson– Tel: 01224 272354– j.d.nelson@abdn.ac.uk– Fraser Noble 378– www.abdn.ac.uk/ctr