1 Profile of women who desire two children and achieved their desire and how to scale up their experience 1 Somaya El-Saadani Associate Professor Department of Biostatistics and Demography Institute of Statistical Studies and Research Cairo University And Associate Professor, Social Research Center The American University in Cairo Introduction Fifty years ago Egyptian women were having, on average, 5.3 children each. Then the birth rate began to fall. It took twenty years, from 1988 to 2008, to accomplish further decline from 4.4 children to, on average, 3 children-- a decline of about 1.4 births. Egypt stands out in having a relatively high fertility, one child above the replacement level and fertility has been declining slowly since 1995. The decline that occurred during the first half of this period 1988-2000 (0.9 live births) is more than double what occurred during the period 2000-2008 (0.4 live births annually). Furthermore, there are regions that have been experiencing stalled fertility, e.g., the urban governorates and the urban areas of Lower and Upper Egypt. On contrary, rural Upper Egypt is taking the lead in the decline. The one child gap between the current level of fertility and the replacement level is due almost equally to wanted and unwanted births, (Casterline and Roushdy, 2007). In contrast to low fertility countries, where women are having far fewer children than intended (Morgan and Rackin, 2010), women in high fertility countries such as Egypt women are having more children than intended. As estimated by (Casterline and Roushdy 2007, p.9) wanted fertility must decline by at least one-half birth (in most sub-groups of the population) to a full birth in few sub groups (rural areas, Upper Egypt, illiterate and poor women). Above the majority prefer three or more children (60%) with mean desired number of children approximate observed period fertility, three children. Far below the majority are choosing to have two children and about half of those were able to achieve what they intended for. 1 This paper was done under the project “Policies to address fertility plateau in Egypt” co-ordinated by the Social Research Center (SRC) of the American University in Cairo (AUC) and supported by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Cairo Office.
Transcript
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Profile of women who desire two children and achieved their desire
and how to scale up their experience1
Somaya El-Saadani
Associate Professor Department of Biostatistics and Demography Institute of Statistical Studies and Research Cairo University And Associate Professor, Social Research Center The American University in Cairo
Introduction
Fifty years ago Egyptian women were having, on average, 5.3 children each. Then the birth rate began to fall. It took twenty years, from 1988 to 2008, to accomplish further decline from 4.4 children to, on average, 3 children-- a decline of about 1.4 births. Egypt stands out in having a relatively high fertility, one child above the replacement level and fertility has been declining slowly since 1995. The decline that occurred during the first half of this period 1988-2000 (0.9 live births) is more than double what occurred during the period 2000-2008 (0.4 live births annually). Furthermore, there are regions that have been experiencing stalled fertility, e.g., the urban governorates and the urban areas of Lower and Upper Egypt. On contrary, rural Upper Egypt is taking the lead in the decline. The one child gap between the current level of fertility and the replacement level is due almost equally to wanted and unwanted births, (Casterline and Roushdy, 2007). In contrast to low fertility countries, where women are having far fewer children than intended (Morgan and Rackin, 2010), women in high fertility countries such as Egypt women are having more children than intended. As estimated by (Casterline and Roushdy 2007, p.9) wanted fertility must decline by at least one-half birth (in most sub-groups of the population) to a full birth in few sub groups (rural areas, Upper Egypt, illiterate and poor women). Above the majority prefer three or more children (60%) with mean desired number of children approximate observed period fertility, three children. Far below the majority are choosing to have two children and about half of those were able to achieve what they intended for.
1 This paper was done under the project “Policies to address fertility plateau in Egypt” co-ordinated by the Social Research Center (SRC) of the American University in Cairo (AUC) and supported by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Cairo Office.
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The main objective of the study is to provide a profile of women who desire two children. For this purpose the article will examine the level of consistency (success in achieving the reported desires) among women who desired two children as well as will study the profile of those who succeeded in achieving two children, their different background characteristics, their husband’s, their families’ and their reproductive health profile. This with ultimate objective is to advise policy actions.
Table 1 provides a time series of the percent of Egyptian women (15-49) who would have preferred two children during their entire life and the percent who achieved two children. It also provides the same measures for the group who are reaching the end of their reproductive career at time of the survey taking (40+). Using data from the different Egypt Demographic and Health Surveys that have been conducted since 1988, results reveal that, on average, little more than one-third of the currently married women of age 15-49 reported two children as an ideal number for them. The percent slightly increased by about 2.7% in span of 20 years (from about 36% in 1988 to about 39.2% in 2008). However, the percent who achieved two children is much less. It is almost half the percent of whom their ideal is 2, (39.2% in 1988 and 23.2% in 2008). Furthermore, it took Egypt 20 years to increase those who achieved two children by only 6 percent points, from 17.1% in 1988 to 23.2% in 2008. When we consider the group who are reaching the end of their reproductive career, data display, (Columns 4 and 5), that less than thirty percent reported two children is an ideal number of children and this percent decreased to 27.2% in span of twenty years. During this time period the percent who achieved only two children by the end of their reproductive life is barely increased by 5% points, from 7.6% in 1988 to 11.7% in 2008, revealing a remarkable gap between the desired and achieved numbers. Still about 90% of women by the end of their reproductive life surpassed Egypt target of 2.1 children and have three or more children.
Table 1. Percent of Currently Married Egyptian Women Who Would Have Preferred Two Children and Who Have Two Surviving Children, Different Surveys
Surveys
All women Women in the age group 40-49 Percent who would Have preferred two
Children*
Percent who have two living children
Percent who would Have preferred two
Children
Percent who have two living children
1988 36.5 17.1 29.2 7.6 1992 37.2 17.3 30.1 8.0 1995 39.0 18.2 29.3 7.8 2000 33.0 19.9 23.2 8.8 2005 40.5 22.2 29.7 11.0 2008 39.2 23.2 27.3 11.7 * Among all women including those who did not provide numerical answers.
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Using data from the latest Egypt Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS 2008), our study population is the currently married women in the age group (40-49) and who have two or more living children and provided numerical responses to ideal family size questions. It embodies 3,272 women. We excluded the widowed and divorced for they, on average, have fertility level fewer than their counterparts married women. Additionally, they represent negligible number of women.
Women’s reproductive aspirations which are crucial to our analysis, are proxied by the ideal number of children. Typically the ideal number of children is inferred from hypothetical questions. In Egypt case the question was worded as follows: “If you could go back to the time you did not have any children and could choose exactly the number of children to have in your whole life, how many would that be?” The wording of the question allows for responses that, inevitably, contains a rationalized component and makes the response to this question is highly correlated with actual or ‘completed’ family size. Some parents had their preferred number changed radically with lifetime experiences and adversity, and that influenced their ideals. Additionally, some parents rationalize the results of contraceptive failure by claiming to prefer large families or rationalize the results of sub-fecundity or economic adversity, by claiming to prefer small families. Besides, the ideal for some respondents may reflect their sensitivity to what the interviewer wants rather than something genuine meaningful to them or represent an effort at politeness to ‘hypothetical’ queries to which the respondent really has no answer, (Ware, 1974). Finally, some have genuine preferences which are reflected in their parities.
To estimate the reliability of the stated ideal number of children, as it is often questionable, El-Zeini (2008, 166) examined the level of consistency between women’s responses to the ideal number item using the EIDHS 2003 and the Slow Fertility Transition SFT in 2004 survey which is conducted 11 months following EIDHS. She found that, excluding women who gave non-numerical responses and those whose ideal was five or more children, the greatest consistency is among women who reported their ideal number of children as two. (69 percent of women who reported two children their ideal in EIDHS did not change their responses in SFT).
Non-numerical responses form relatively low proportion of the responses to the ideal family size questions, reaching 6.9% of the study population (1147 cases). However, non numerical responses are not randomly distributed. Those most likely to provide such answers are older women, rural, illiterate, and the economically disadvantaged. Noteworthy, those who have experienced mortality (either the death of their husbands, or death of at least one of their children) are the most reluctant to give numerical responses (tables available upon request). We excluded women who failed to provide numerical answer to the ideal family size question.
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Based on the assumption that preferences influence behavior, the study population is divided into four groups; the first group includes women who reported two children their preferred number of children and achieved two children and is termed the ‘achievers of 2’. The second group contains those who reported two children their preferred number of children and achieved three or more children. The members of this group are termed ‘non-achievers of 2’. The third group comprises women who reported three or more children their preferred number and achieved two children, termed ‘non-achievers of 3+’ and the last group embrace those reported three or more children their preferred number and achieved three or more children, termed ‘achievers of 3+’.
As Table 2 illustrates, ‘achievers of 2’ represents about one fifth of the study population. Furthermore, about thirty percent of young women (of age less than 30) are ‘achievers of 2’. However, the percent of the achievers among the oldest cohort is three times less than the former (10.1%). On contrast, ‘non-achievers of 2’ represented eleven percent among youth and doubled the number among the middle aged and old. The fact that the percent of those whose ideal family size equals two children and achieved two children declines as age rises does cast doubts upon the validity of the greatly reduced number of preferred children reported by the youngest cohorts. As apparent from the Table, once the family targets large family size of three children or more it will eventually achieve it. The percent that aimed for three or more children and achieved their target ‘achievers of 3+’ embodies half of the respondents. Moreover, ‘achievers of 3+’, rose from one quarter among the youth to two thirds among the oldest cohort. It worth noting that young cohorts who prefer three children or more and achieved only two children at time of the survey are less likely to stay in this status by the end of the reproductive career, (group three). As data, reveal the percent who could not achieve their desired number of 3 or more children among the oldest cohort is 10 times less the percent among the youngest cohort (31.8% in age <30 vs. 3.6 % in age 40+).
Table 2. Percent distribution of the four categories of women according to age at time of the survey, EDHS 2008
Groups of women Age groups
Total < 30 30-39 40-49
Their ideal equals the achieved equals 2, ‘achievers of 2’
32.0 16.3 10.1 18.9
Their ideal equals 2 but achieved 3+ ‘non-achievers of 2’
11.4 20.6 19.8 17.7
Their ideal equals 3+ and achieved less than 3, ‘non-achievers of 3+’
31.8 9.3 3.6 14.0
Their ideal equals 3+ and achieved 3+, ‘achievers of 3+’
24.8 53.7 66.5 49.4
Total cases 3002
100%
4090
100%
3272
100%
10364
100%
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Furthermore, as Figure 1 displays, the mean ideal number of children is persistently above two children for every age. It takes the range between 2.5 and 3 children for young cohorts, below their 35, then it continually increases with age to reach level of four children among women at the end of their bearing age. In the mean time, young women have their number of living children below their ideals till they reach their thirties. By getting older, with longer duration of marriage and longer period of exposure to childbearing, the ideal number could not be maintained and number of living children exceeds the ideals.
It is important to mention that age-specific trend can be thought out from two different angles; either this is the path youth ultimately will follow up to the end of their reproductive life or a real change is underway among the younger cohorts favoring smaller family size.
Believing in the first path our analysis, from this point forward, will focus on the profile of the group of women who are at the end of the childbearing years (40+), especially those who have preferred two-child family. The article is organized into four sections. After the introduction, section two examines the extent to which the preferred number of two children tended to be what has actually occurred among the different groups of women? Section three analyzes the profile of those who have genuine preferences of two children which are reflected in their parity. And we conclude in section four.
Figure 1 Mean of ideal number and living children among women 15-49, EDHS2008
Mean number of living children Mean ideal number of children
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How strongly women are attached to their expressed desires?
An apparent inability to reach fertility intentions plays a significant role in high fertility. This section examines the degree of consistency between women’s desires for their family size and their achieved family size.
In Table 3 below we provide percent of women who achieved two children among those would have preferred two children during their entire life, (Column 2), classified according to the different background variables and provide the fraction of those who achieved three or more children among those would have preferred more than two children during their entire life, (Column 3).
Data demonstrate the level of attachment to two children is weak among women at the end of reproductive career. On average, one third of this group who preferred two children during their entire life achieved so. In contrast, ninety five percent of their peers who preferred more than two children achieved so. Failure to achieve the ideal is prevailing among the majority of old women with percent no less than 50% and reach level as high as 90 percent.
Although the correlates with the different demographic and socio-economic factors go with the expected direction, yet the highest percent of women who succeeded in achieving their 2 child target hardly reach 50%.
Ability to maintain two children is very weak, notably, among women who suffered from one (22%) or two or more child deaths (10.5%), residents of rural Upper Egypt (10.9%), the poor (17.8), the illiterates (20.4%), and the housewives (27.1%).
Son preference is not a strong hindrance of achieving the target as about fifty percent of those their ideal is two living children have two daughters. On the other hand those who have two boys, only thirty percent of them maintained their target.
One remarkable finding is the role of duration of marriage and its implication of duration of exposure to child bearing as well as its correlate with age at first marriage. Women of age 40+ who have marriage duration less than ten years (i.e., their age at first marriage is above thirty) have the largest prevalence of achievers of 2 children (85%), followed by those of marriage duration 10-19, i.e., got married between age 20-29 (56%), then by those of marriage duration 20+ (or age at marriage below twenty) years (23.6%).
Although, suffering from child mortality, living in rural Upper, poverty, and illiteracy are strong deterrents for achieving two child family, still above the majority of the urban residents, the highly educated, the richest, and those who have successful child survival failed to realize their two child target.
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Table 3 Percent of women (40+) who achieved their target according to the target and by different background characteristics, EDHS 2008
Characteristics of the respondents
Percent who achieved two children among those who would have preferred two
children during their entire life
Percent who achieved three or more children among those who would have preferred
more than two children during their entire life
Over all level 33.9 94.9 Education No education Primary Secondary Higher Working No Yes Type of earnings for work Not paid Cash only Residence Urban Rural Wealth index Poorest Poorer Middle Richer Richest Marital duration 0-9 10-19 20+
20.4 30.8 38.4 48.8
27.1 47.8
50.0 47.8
40.1 23.6
21.7 17.8 23.7 36.2 45.1
85.7 55.9 23.8
97.3 94.5 92.7 87.4
95.5 92.6
97.8 92.3
92.4 96.7
96.6 97.2 96.1 92.5 91.7
37.5 87.6 96.6
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Number of boys 0 1 2 3+ Region Urban Governorates Urban Lower Rural Lower Urban Upper Rural Upper Frontier Gov. Child death 0 1 2+
51.5 50.3 28.6 100.0
47.6 32.5 28.3 31.8 10.9 22.2
36.5 22.0 10.5
84.6 88.5 94.7 100.0
92.7 87.6 97.2 97.3 96.0 97.4
94.6 96.5 93.8
Total cases 980 2291
On contrast to the former group, the level of consistency is much tide among women who would have preferred three or more children and achieved 3 or more surviving children (of course, there is a fraction of this group who achieved more than they would have preferred, but currently they are not of our concern). Almost all women aged 40+ (90% to 97%) who wanted more than two children achieved so, this is true in almost all groups of different background. i.e., irrespective of their level of education (with exception of those who have university degree, they slightly have lower percent; 87.4%), type of work, region of residence, experience of child loss, and level of wealth. Intuitively, the poorer, the illiterates, those living in rural areas, Upper Egypt and the Frontiers and early married have the highest percentages, close to one hundred (97.8). Short duration of marriage (and the resultant short period of exposure to childbearing) is the only factor that strongly hampered women from achieving their desire for 3+ children.
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Profile of the achievers of the desired two children
In this section we examine the profile of women who are consistent with their fertility desire of only two children. Table 4 displays the percent distribution of women at the end of their reproductive career (40+) who successfully achieved their desire of only two children according to the different background characteristics (Column 2) and the percent distribution of the total women aged 40+ to examine the extent to which the achievers are similar or deviates from population’s average with respect to the background characteristics that influence fertility.
The achievers, on average, marry older than their total women of similar age by about 5 years, (the mean age at first marriage is 24.25 vs. 19.43). Two thirds of the achievers their age of marriage is concentrated in the age group 20-29, they greatly outnumber those married at their teens or after age 30. Furthermore, the fraction of the achievers who got married after reaching age thirty is fourfold the percent among their peers (total women 40+), Table 4.
Achievers of two are more likely to have short duration of marriage. Half of them did not complete 20 years of marriage. Their percent is two times and half higher than that among total women of similar age. Additionally, 2 percent of the achievers have duration of marriage less than 10 years. Albeit, the percent is trivial it is about four times higher than that in total women (40+).
As Table 4 displays, one eights of the achievers have only two girls. Its percent is more than two folds the percent among total women. Above the majority of the achievers have both sexes.
It is apparent that achievers are enjoying successful child survival much more than their peers. Twenty percent of the peers have at least one child loss and it is double the percent among the achievers. Furthermore, events of two child deaths among the achievers is 6 times less than among their peers.
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Table 4. Percent distribution of achievers (40+) and total women (40+) according to some demographic characteristics, EDHS 2008
Background characteristics Achievers ( 40+) Total women (40+)
Age at first marriage
<19 19.3 49.5
20-29 66.3 47.4
30+ 14.5 3.1
Mean age at first marriage
24.25 (4.892)
19.43 (3.922)
Duration of marriage
<10 1.8 0.5
10-19 49.7 20.8
20+ 48.5 78.7
Number of sons
Zero 15.4 6.2
One 56.3 26.5
Two (or more) 28.3 67.3
Number of child deaths
Zero 91.5 78.2
One 7.3 14.7
Two (or more) 1.2 7.1.
Total cases
332 100.0%
3271 100.0%
The percent of participation in the labor force is considerably higher among the achievers, it is almost double the one among their peers, Table 5. Most importantly the level is as high as that is prevailing in some of the developed countries that has TFR below the replacement level such as Italy in which the rate of women’s participation in the labor force is 51.1%, (Human Development Report, 2010).
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Results display that the achievers are highly educated. Two thirds (67.5%) have secondary or above with one quarter have university degree or more. Furthermore, this level is close to that prevailing in some developed countries. In Italy, the percent of women (aged 25+) with at least secondary education is 76.5. In contrast the illiterates are prevailing among total women of similar age (42%).
One important finding is that about fifty percent of the achievers are belonging to the wealthiest group. In contrast, the poorest and poorer groups are represented among total women of similar age (34%) more than among the achievers. The disadvantaged group is three times higher than among the achievers (11.7%).
Three quarter of the achievers are urban habitats, with half of them are residents of the four urban governorates. It is worth noting that the achievers are neither rural Upper habitats nor Frontiers. Barely, four percent are living in rural Upper.
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Table 5. Percent distribution of achievers (40+) and women (40+) according to some Socio-economic characteristics, EDHS 2008
Background characteristics Achievers ( 40+) Women (40+)
Working status
Yes 46.2 25
No 53.8 75
Level of education
No education 16.6 42.4
Basic education 15.7 17.4
Secondary 42.9 29.4
University 24.8 10.9
Wealth index
Poorest 6 16.4
Poorer 5.7 17.6
Middle 12.1 19.2
Richer 27.8 21.2
Richest 48.3 25.5
Place of current residence
Urban 73.8 49.1
Rural 26.2 50.9
Urban Governorates 45.8 22.7
Urban Lower 15.1 13.6
Rural Lower 22.6 31.3
Urban Upper 12.7 11.8
Rural Upper 3.3 19.1
Frontiers 0.6 1.5
Total cases
332 100.0%
3271 100.0%
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Husband’s occupation: The occupation profile for the achiever’s husbands are selected toward the top skill levels if compared with the average group. Above forty percent of the achievers are married to husbands who are occupying the top two levels of skill hierarchy, followed by clericals. The level is almost two times higher than that in the peer group. In contrast, occupational profile of the peers’ husbands is skewed toward the low skill levels of occupation, Table 6.
Husband’s level of education: close to three quarter of the achievers are married to males of at least secondary education, with thirty percent of them are marrying to university graduates. The educational profile is considerably selected toward the highly educated. In the mean time the educational profile of the husbands of the corresponding group of women, in contrast, is notably selected toward the low education level, with thirty percent their husbands have no education.
Table 6. Percent distribution of achievers (40+) and women (40+) according to their husband’s characteristics, EDHS 2008
Husband's level of education No education 13.6 29.4 Basic education 13.9 21.4 Secondary 43.2 32.7 University 29.3 16.5
Total cases 332
100.0% 3271
100.0%
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Although the number of the achievers is very small (only 36 cases), however, the results show that they grew up in families that are less likely to favor larger number of children if compared with the average, Table 7. As indicated in the table, the percent of achievers whom their mother would have preferred more children or whom their family would be stronger and happier it has bigger number of children is half the percent among total women.
Table 7. Percent distribution of achievers (40+) and women (40+) according to familial background characteristics, SFT 2004
Item Achievers ( 40+)
Total women (40+)
Raised in two child family
Her mother would have preferred more children
Thought that her family would be stronger and happier if it has bigger number of children
0.0
16.7
8.3
3.5
31.2
16.2
Total cases 36 525
Consistently, the achievers behave favorably with regard to the reproductive health if compared with their average group. A notable finding is that in contrast to the average where one quarter of women (40+) delivered their last child at home, none of the achievers delivered their last child at home, Table 8.
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Table 8. Reproductive health behavior according to different age groups, EDHS 2008
Elements of reproductive behavior Achievers ( 40+)
Total women (40+)
Decision for using contraceptive Joint decision
90.5 87.4
Approve of a new married couples to use family planning methods before the first birth
1.5 1.4
Approve use of contraceptive after the first birth 98.8 92.9
Had two living children before first use 15.2 18.7
Husband’s desire for children Wants more
15.3 24.2
Never used any contraceptives 4.8 4.9
Place of delivery Home
(0.0) 25.7
Total Cases 332 3271
Although a great number of them (77.8%) encourage their daughters/son to have two children, data display, Table 9, that it does not matter a great deal to about half of them (44.4%) if they had one additional child. Furthermore, they are not significantly different from the average group.
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Table 9. Strengths of attachment to ideal number of children, SFT 2004
Items of attitudes Achievers ( 40+)
Total women (40+)
Respondents who would like their daughters/sons to have two children
77.8 78.0
Respondents whom it would matter a great deal to them if they had one child more than the ideal
44.4 43.7
Total cases 36 525
Logistic regression analysis of the determinants of achieving the desired two children
In this model we aim at examining the net effect of each variable on the likelihood that a woman aged 40 years or more who desired two children achieved so. Our study population is the currently married women aged 40-49 and have at least two children. In a logistic relationship the dependent variable takes value one for women who desired two children and achieved their desire and takes value zero otherwise. The independent variables include; wife’s age at first marriage, duration of marriage, ever use of contraception (including current use of contraceptives), number of deceased children, number of living boys, place of current residence, woman’s level of education, whether working for cash, her husband’s level of education, and her household’s standard of living proxyied by the wealth index (measured by the first factor resulting from applying factor analysis technique for the household’s durable goods, assets and housing condition). Results are presented in Table (10) below. We examined several models to reach at best estimate of the level of significance of the variables that influence the capabilities of women to achieve two children. As apparent, woman’s age at first marriage, experience of child loss, son preference, her working status and her place of residence are the most significant factors that influence achieving the desired number of two children. Neither Woman’s duration of marriage, her use of contraception, her level of education, her husband’s occupational skill nor her household level of wealth are statistically significant. As model IV reveals, rising age at first marriage, independent from level of education, place of residence and all other variables, considerably increases the likelihood of meeting woman’s desire of two children. It seems that age at marriage is not only related to shortening duration of exposure to pregnancy but also connected to women self-esteem. Both child mortality and son preference work in the
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Table (10) Logistic regression estimates of the parameters of the determinants of achieving desired two children
Variables Model I Model II Model III Model IV
B B B B Exp (B)
Age at first marriage .133*** .122*** .119*** .124*** 1.132
Duration of marriage -.025 -.033 -.028 -.030 .970
Ever use of contraception -.508 -.370 -.383 -.337 .714
Number of child death -.482*** -.408** -.386** -.429** .651
Number of living boys -.851*** -.879*** -.878*** -.886*** .412
Reference groups: Ever use of contraception (no); place of residence (rural Upper), Level of education (illiterate), Work for cash (no), husband’s occupation (low skill), wealth (poorest),
opposite direction, lowering the chance of meeting the ideal number of two children. Women living in areas different from rural Upper Egypt; notably in one of the four urban governorates, are significantly able to achieve two children. Women living in the four urban governorates are five times likely to meet her ideal number of two children more than women living in rural Upper. Women participation in the labor market significantly increases the likelihood of giving birth to only two children.
Conclusion
Egypt has experienced a remarkable decline in its TFR from 5.3 children per woman to 3 in 2008. Since late 1990s, however, fertility is stalled. At the current fertility level an Egyptian woman continuously married from age 15 could expect three children over a 30-year reproductive life, nearly one child above the replacement level (2.1). Recent data, EDHS 2008, show that for women of every age group the mean ideal number of children is persistently above two children. It’s between 2.5 and 3 children for young cohorts and reaches about 4 children among women at the end of their reproductive career. Furthermore, far below the majority are choosing to have two children (36.5% and 29.2% among all women and women aged 40-49, respectively) and half of those were able to achieve two children (23.2% and 11.7%, respectively).
This article examines the level of consistency among women who are, contrary to the average norm, have desired two children and studies the profile of those who succeeded in fulfilling their desires.
Results reveal that the level of attachment to two children is weak among women at the end of their reproductive career. On average, one third of this group who preferred two children during their entire life achieved so. In contrast, ninety five percent of their peers who preferred more than two children achieved so.
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Ability to maintain two children is very weak, notably, among women who suffered from one (22%) or two or more child deaths (10.5%), residents of rural Upper Egypt (10.9%), the poor (17.8), the illiterates (20.4%), and the housewives (27.1%). Son preference is not a strong hindrance of achieving the target as about fifty percent of those their ideal is two living children have two daughters. Results demonstrate that duration of marriage (and its implication of duration of exposure to child bearing as well as its correlate with age at first marriage) is a strong differentiating factor in fertility behavior.
Although the correlates with the different demographic and socio-economic factors go with the expected direction, still above the majority of the advantaged groups; the urban residents, the highly educated, the richest, and those who have successful child survival failed to realize their two child target.
Women who successfully achieved their intended fertility of two children ‘achievers of 2’ or ‘achievers’ are highly selected with regard to most of the demographic, socio-economic and reproductive health factors that influence fertility. They marrying, on average, at old age. While in Egypt still delaying marriage, especially after age 30 is not welcomed, considerable fraction of the achievers married at age above 30. They have short duration of marriage before reaching the end of their reproductive career. They are enjoying successful child survival much more than their peers, and they do not have strong son preference.
Achievers have favorable socio-economic characteristics; they are highly educated, have high rate of participation in the labor market, and have high standard of living and are living in urbanized areas. Furthermore, they are marrying to better off husbands in terms of the level of occupational skills and level of education.
Achievers with regard to their reproductive health behavior have, generally, slightly better indicator than total women. However, they are notably better in regard to two indicators; place of child birth and husband’s desire for more children. None of the achievers delivered their babies at their homes and fewer husbands desire more than two children. These two findings are much related to the achievers’ level of education in general and level of health education in particular and to their economic standard of living as well as to their husbands’ level of education and skills.
Two additional important interrelated findings are in order. 1) Although a great percent of the achievers (77.8%) encourage their daughters/sons to have two children, and in this regard they are not different from the total population, still, close to one quarter of them would like their daughters/son to have more than two children. And 2) It does not matter a great deal for nearly half of them if they had one additional child. As denoted by (Hill, et al. 1959 cited in: Ware, 1974), societies in a transitional stage from high fertility to low fertility, they are also in
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transitional stage of attitude development between an unequivocal preference for large families and an unequivocal preference for small ones. During such period the individual may be subject to two opposing value systems, both of which he can agree with.
Two major interrelated dimensions should be the focus of population and family planning policies in Egypt, namely; changing the traditional norm and attitude toward family size, especially among rural residents and rising the level of development and individuals standard of living,.
In Egypt, four major factors play important role in its transitional stage of attitude development: a) the prevailing norm about what is the large family? On the one hand, childlessness and raising singleton is strongly rejected. As indicated by EDHS 2008 the percent of women who reported that zero number of children is their preferred number is 0.2% and those one child is their ideal is 2.2%. Hence couples are to choose from minimum two or more children. On the other hand, still the prevailing normative family size does not view three children and even four children as a large family, b) the normative pressure to have a boy child, c) fear of child death considerably contribute to preferring more than two children and d) the perception of low costs of childrearing. Moving from two to three children does not dilute remarkably the resources necessary for maintaining an adequate standard of living for the family, especially at the childhood period of their children, (Westley, et al. 2010).
The study, in agreement with numerous studies in Egypt and worldwide( e.g., (Bongaarts, 2003, 2006,2008; Eltigani, 2003, 2009; Zaky, 2004), provides evidence that four related factors strongly contribute to lower fertility; 1) rising level of human development and standard of living as proxied by area of residence. Area of residence reflects many important factors including; the prevailing norms with regard to family size and the value of boy children and the educational opportunities available to citizens. Expanding educational opportunities up to secondary or higher level of education for the individuals will contribute to rising age at marriage for girls and rising the cost of childrearing. By education, children will be withdrawn from the labor market and become economically dependent on their parents. Expanding educational opportunities is necessary to reduce fertility level from its high level. It is not , however, enough to achieve further reduction during this transitional stage, it should be coupled with the following other three factors; 2) rising age at marriage, 3) increasing women’s participation in the formal labor market by which the costs of motherhood will be high, and 4) improving quality of health services to rise chances for child survival by which families are in no need to have extra children to compensate for child loss.
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