Date post: | 01-Jan-2016 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | russell-hicks |
View: | 220 times |
Download: | 1 times |
Profiling the Railway Industry in SA
Letsane RathabaRSR Inspector
IRSC 2008 DENVER, COLORADO. USA.
2
OVERVIEWOVERVIEW
INTRODUCTION
THE RSR
THE RAILWAY INDUSTRY IN SA
THE RISK PERCEPTION MODEL
DETERMINISTIC RISK MODEL
CONCLUSION
3
THE RSR (1)THE RSR (1)
NATIONAL RAILWAY SAFETY REGULATOR ACT (2002)
PURPOSEPromote safe railway operationsCollaboration and participationOperators are responsible and
accountable for safetyHarmonisation in SADCEstablish a regulatory regime
4
THE RSR (2)THE RSR (2)
Board
CEO
Internal Audit
Regulation Assurance Support Finance
Legal advisor/ Board
Secretary
Strat & Econ. Planning
5
THE RSR (3)THE RSR (3)A brief history
Operational since late 2005Inspectorate appointed 2006Enforcement since 2006
12 Engineers, 2 OfficesFunding
6
SA RAIL INDUSTRYSA RAIL INDUSTRYTransnet Freight Rail
Total Network (22 241 km – DC, AC, Non-electric)Coal Export line (67 mt)Iron ore line (30 mt)General Freight Business (84 mt)
SA Rail Commuter Corporation (Metrorail)OTHER
7
RISK PERCEPTION MODEL cont …RISK PERCEPTION MODEL cont …Economic Sector risk perception
H - Tourism - severity, occurrence historyH - Petrochemicals - severityH - Class I operatorsM - Municipalities, Ports, Mining, Manufacturing, L - Sidings and terminals and Agricultural
E.g. High risk (passenger, dangerous goods, NTS)Used to prioritize activities
8
THE RISK PERCEPTION MODELTHE RISK PERCEPTION MODELAbsence of objective data Risk Based Approach Risk profile to appraise industry risk levels Main factors
Commodity transported (passenger, dangerous goods, freight)Operator category (Station, Network, Train)Volume of goodsNature and complexity of operationsOccurrence ProbabilityOccurrence Severity
9
SHORTCOMINGS OF RPMSHORTCOMINGS OF RPM
Subjectivity (perception)Non-use of operational dataDoes not take into account occurrence recordDoes not take into account compliance record
10
DETERMINISTIC RISK MODEL DETERMINISTIC RISK MODEL (DRM)(DRM)
(Dr Chris Dutton)Improvement on the RPMA more objective methodologyTake into account both potential and reality risk
of each operatorPotential Risk based on Nature of Business
Category within each factorOccurrence risk (prob+severity) within each categoryWeightings of each category
11
POTENTIAL RISKPOTENTIAL RISK
NOBFI (nature of business factor impact, high, medium, low and very low) OSI (occurrence severity impact) OPI (occurrence probability impact inferred from the frequency of occurrence)
12
NATURE OF BUSINESS FACTORSNATURE OF BUSINESS FACTORS
Factor Sub Element H M L VL
1 Business Intensity (volume)
Freight >8mtpa >5mtpa >3mtpa <1mtpa
2 Passengers >1000pd >1000pm >1000pq <1000py
3 Complexity of Operations
Trains crossing per route
>5 <5 <2 None
4 Commodity transported
P-passenger F-freight D-dangerous goods
P&F&D / P&D
P&F / D&F P / D F
5 Technology utilized
S-State of the art M-modern O-old A-obsolete
A O M S
6 Moving assets employed
Locomotive/ EMU/DMU
>50 >10 >2 <2
7 Wagons >1000 >200 >20 <20
8 Coaches >500 >100 >10 <11
9 Length of track
With OHTE >1000 >100 <100 -
10 Without OHTE >5000 >500 >50 <50
13
OCCURENCE SEVERITY IMPACTOCCURENCE SEVERITY IMPACTDescription Weighting Criteria
Catastrophic 10 Could result in death, permanent total disability, multiple injuries, loss exceeding R10m, or irreversible severe environmental damage that violates regulations or law
Critical 6 Could result in partial disability, injuries or occupational illness that may result in hospitalisation of at least 3 persons, loss exceeding R2m or reversible environmental damage causing violation of law or regulation
Marginal 3 Could result in injury or occupational illness resulting in one or more lost days, loss exceeding R500k or mitigatible environmental damage without violation of law or regulation, restoration is possible
Negligible 1 Could result in injury or illness not resulting in lost days, dame of a minor nature, or minimal environmental damage not violation any law or regulation
14
OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY IMPACTOCCURRENCE PROBABILITY IMPACTDescription Weighting Norm Check
Frequent 15 Likely to occur often in the life of an item, occurrence probability greater than 10-1 in the life, probability>0.1
Experienced continuously
Probable 10 Will occur several times in the life of the item, 0.01< probability<0.1
Occurs frequently
Occasional 6 Likely to occur some in the life of the item, 0.01<probability<0.001
Will occur several times
Remote 3 Unlikely but possible to occur in the life of the item0.000001<probability<0.001
Unlikely, but can reasonable be expected to occur
Improbable 1 Occurrence may not be experienced,Probability>0.000001 (10-6)
Unlikely to occur
15
RISK CATEGORY ALLOCATION (1)RISK CATEGORY ALLOCATION (1)Factor Sub Element H M L VL
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
1 Business Intensity (volume)
Freight Frequent Probable Occasional Remote
2 Passengers Frequent Probable Occasional Remote
3 Complexity of Operations
Trains crossing per route
Probable Occasional Remote Improbable
4 Commodity transported
P-passenger F-freight D-dangerous goods
Frequent Probable Occasional Remote
5 Technology utilized
S-State of the art M-modern O-old A-obsolete
Frequent Probable Remote Improbable
6 Moving assets employed
Locomotive/ EMU/DMU
Probable Occasional Remote Improbable
7 Wagons Probable Occasional Remote Improbable
8 Coaches Probable Occasional Remote Improbable
9 Length of track
With OHTE Frequent Probable Occasional Remote
10 Without OHTE Probable Occasional Remote Improbable
16
RISK CATEGORY ALLOCATION (2)RISK CATEGORY ALLOCATION (2)Factor Sub Element H M L VL
SEVERITY OF OCCURRENCE
1 Business Intensity (volume)
Freight Critical Critical Marginal Negligible
2 Passengers Catastrophic Critical Marginal Marginal
3 Complexity of Operations
Trains crossing per route
Critical Marginal Marginal Negligible
4 Commodity transported
P-passenger F-freight D-dangerous goods
Catastrophic Catastrophic Critical Marginal
5 Technology utilized
S-State of the art M-modern O-old A-obsolete
Critical Marginal Negligible Negligible
6 Moving assets employed
Locomotive/ EMU/DMU
Critical Marginal Negligible Negligible
7 Wagons Critical Marginal Negligible Negligible
8 Coaches Critical Critical Marginal Negligible
9 Length of track
With OHTE Catastrophic Critical Marginal Negligible
10 Without OHTE Critical Marginal Negligible Negligible
17
RISK CATEGORY CALCULATIONRISK CATEGORY CALCULATIONPROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCESEVERITY OF OCCURRENCE RISK SEVERITY
Factor Sub ElementH M L VL H M L VL H M L
VL
1 Business Intensity (volume)
Freight 15 10 6 3 6 6 3 1 90 60 18 3
Passengers15 10 6 3 10 6 3 3 150 60 18 92
3 Complexity of Operations
Trains crossing per route 10 6 3 1 6 3 3 1 60 18 9 1
4 Commodity transported
P-passenger F-freight D-dang goods 15 10 6 3 10 10 6 3 150 100 36 9
5 Technology utilized
S-State othe art M-modern O-old A-obsolete 15 10 3 1 6 3 1 1 90 30 3 1
6 Moving assets employed
Locomotive/ EMU/DMU 10 6 3 1 6 3 1 1 60 18 3 1
7 Wagons 10 6 3 1 6 3 1 1 60 18 3 1Coaches
10 6 3 1 6 6 3 1 60 36 9 18
9 Length of track
With OHTE 15 10 6 3 10 6 3 1 150 60 18 3
Without OHTE10 6 3 1 6 3 1 1 60 18 3 110
18
REALITY RISKREALITY RISK
Based on actual operator performanceIncident record
Number of occurrences per annumSeverity of previous occurrences
Compliance recordSubmission requirementsResponsiveness to directives Performance against directives
19
REALITY RISK CATEGORIESREALITY RISK CATEGORIESNORM
Factor H M L VL
1 Occurrence Probability IR
>10 pd >10 pm >10 pq > 10 py
2 Occurrence Severity IRCatastrophic Critical Marginal Negligible
3 A. Submission of annual safety plan (ASP) CR
Not received Received late Partially compliant
Fully compliant
4 B. PH performance against ASP objectives CR
No objectives met
Less than half of were met
More than half but not all were met
All objectives were met
5 C. Submission of quarterly report CR
Not received Received late Partially compliant
Fully compliant
6 D. Responsiveness to notices CR
Issued with final demand
Un cooperative
Requires reminders
Full cooperation
7 E. Responsiveness to directives CR
Issued with final demand
Un cooperative
Requires reminders
Full cooperation
8 F. Responsiveness to findings and recommendations CR
Issued with final demand
Un cooperative
Requires reminders
Full cooperation
9 G. Compliance to submitted action plans CR
No objectives met
Less than half were met
More than half were met
All objectives were met
20
REALITY RISK CALCULATIONREALITY RISK CALCULATIONRISK SCORE
Factor H M L VL NA
1 Occurrence Probability IR 15 10 6 3 0
2 Occurrence Severity IR 10 6 3 1 0
3 A. Submission of annual safety plan (ASP) CR 10 6 3 1 0
4 B. PH performance against ASP objectives CR 10 6 3 1 0
5 C. Submission of quarterly report CR 10 6 3 1 0
6 D. Responsiveness to notices CR 10 6 3 1 0
7 E. Responsiveness to directives CR 10 6 3 1 0
8F. Responsiveness to findings and recommendations
CR 10 6 3 1 0
9 G. Compliance to submitted action plans CR 10 6 3 1 0
21
DRM DECISION CRITERIADRM DECISION CRITERIA
CONDITION DECISION
RR> PR HIGH PRIORITY
RR = PR MEDIUM PRIORITY
RR < PR LOW PRIORITY
RR and PR both HIGH HIGH PRIORITY
22
CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
Data capturing
Lots of potential!
23
THANK YOU