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Pages: 7 Thursday, 15 December, 2011 profit.com.pk ‘No short cuts to economic uplift’ Page 8 Stakeholders moot for gas load management plan on December 16 ISLAMABAD aMeR SIaL n Ot deterred by fizzling out of its previous gas load management plan, the ministry of petroleum has again convened a stakeholders meeting to finalise a new plan for January-March period on December 16. An official source said the gas load management plan will be finalised in consultation with the stakeholders to avoid any controversy and for its smooth implementation. He said the top priority of government remains the domestic sector which at present is facing extreme low gas pressures due to the non implementation of the gas load management plan. government had earlier finalised a gas load management for the month of november, which decided that the industrial and Cng sectors both will get gas supply for four days a week. But the plan fizzled out after the Prime Minister directed supplying additional gas to the fertiliser sector to meet up urea shortages. Additional gas supplies to the fertiliser sector were diverted from the power sector, which let to an outage of 325 MW from the system. Since official agencies failed to make timely urea imports government decided to let the fertiliser sector have uninterrupted gas supplies even during December. the gas supply to fertiliser sector will be cut in January when it goes on its annual turnaround. this will ensure that 160 mmcfd gas is available from the sector. Power sector is an aspirant for getting additional gas along with the industrial sector, as it is the time when hydel power generation of 3800 MW will go out of the system with the closure of canals for annual clean up. Ministry of Water and Power has sought Rs10 billion from government to increase thermal power generation during 40 days canal closure period. An additional supply of 100 mmcfd will be linked to the national transmission network from Kunnar Pasaki Deep by the end of current month; the source said that the influential industrial groups were lobbying to get additional gas supply for their use. However, he said, the ministry has recommended allocating additional gas to the domestic sector to lessen their woes. the ministry has stressed implementation of nine month agreements with the industrial sector. the estimated shortage during the winter season is of 1.6 bcfd and the conditions during January and February would be very tight, the source said. Carpedium – Sieze the day Page 3 Iran pulls out the Hormuz card Page 5 KARACHI ISMaIL DILaWaR t He cash-strapped federal government seems to have either curtailed its budgetary expenditures or diversified its source of financing that has primarily been the local banking system during current fiscal year. given the current economic ground realities the above-statement though seems a far distant possibility, certain developments on the financial market indicates that the impression carries some weight. On Wednesday, in what appears to be a surprising move, the funds-starved federal government said no to the scheduled banks’ loan worth over Rs44 billion. Central bank reported that ministry of finance had rejected the Rs44.80 billion bids offered by the primary dealers, mostly banks, against SBP’s auction for the sale of MtBs. the government papers were of 3-, 6- and 12- month maturity periods. the banks, which have drawn enough criticism for prioritising the risk- free government securities in terms of investment instead of extending advances to the growth- oriented private sector, came up with massive bids worth Rs20.550 billion, Rs17.750 billion and Rs6.500 billion respectively for the three maturity periods. But the government, SBP reported, rejected all bids. the banking sources view that the rejection was because of the higher rate of return demanded by the banking lenders to the resource- constrained government. “the banks had asked for a rate of return higher by 20 to 25 basis points than the last cut of yield,” said the sources. Another market observer, however, said the government might not needed money, specially, when it was to be repaid on a higher interest rate. the fact that State Bank has resumed mopping up excess liquidity from the banking system throws enough weight behind the perception that the cash-strapped government seems to have decided to observe restraint in its ongoing borrowing spree from the banks. From July 1 up to Dec 2 (FY12) government, through the central bank, raised over Rs772.40 billion from the state and scheduled banks. the amount stands to be much higher than Rs383.69 billion it had borrowed during the corresponding period last year. After months of injection operations, SBP on tuesday and Wednesday (Dec 13 and 14) conducted open market repo sale operation and mopped up Rs1.5 billion and Rs22.50 billion, respectively, from the banking sector. this trend is contrary to the pre-Dec 13 practices of central bank that, some analysts believe, through injecting huge sums in the banking system had been enabling the latter to lend the same amount back to the funds- starved government. the analysts believe that it augurs well for the country if government has enough leverage to say no to bank loans. PESHAWAR Staff RepoRt S etting aside proposed privati- sation of eight national level or- ganisations including Pakistan Railways, Steel Mills, PiA and WAPDA, the federal cabinet in its meet- ing held with Prime Minister Syed Yousaf Raza gillani decided to take steps for the early revival of these loss making public sector enterprises on war-footings. the Federal Cabinet, after renaming of the Province as Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa held its first ever meeting at Peshawar on Wednesday. Beside others, governor Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa Barrister Masud Kausar and Chief Minister Amir Haider Khan Hoti also attended the meeting, which has taken stock of the existing sit- uation, especially the implementation of federal governments agenda. Briefing media about the decisions taken in the meeting, information Minis- ter Dr Firdaus Ashaq Awan said that the cabinet has rejected privatisation of eight organisations and has on the contrary de- cided to work towards their early revival. in this respect, the affairs of Pakistan Steel Mills remain on top of the agenda whereas the cabinet unanimously decided to con- stitute a committee to carry out its restruc- turing and reforms. the committee was directed to frame its proposals along with the appointment of its Chief executive Of- ficer and completion of its Board of Direc- tors within a week. in response to a question, the federal information minister confirmed that a bail-out package for the revival of Pakistan Steel Mills was also under discussion but it was linked with the appointment of Chief executive Officers (CeO) and completion of Board of Direc- tors. She reminded that so far the present government has already released an amount of Rs30 billion for the revival of the organisation and intends to further support the entity in the light of its strate- gic and economic importance. However, she said, unless a strategy for administra- tive and managerial revival is not framed, such financial bailout plans will not yield the required results. On these grounds, the bail out package was delayed. She, how- ever, added “without a mega injection, re- vival of such entities will be a difficult task.” Answering another question, she in- formed that for revival of such national level institutions, the prime minister has announced chairing cabinet meetings on a weekly basis. After finalising a strategy for Pakistan Steel Mills, the government would go for similar steps in favour of other public sector entities. the federal cabinet approved recon- struction of infrastructure with an esti- mated 270m Saudi Riyals in Malakand Division, north and South Waziristan and Bajaur Agencies of the tribal belt. this amount, she said has been released by the Saudi government as a loan. in response to a question, she said, “there is no justi- fication to term this amount as an alter- nate to US pledges in accordance with the Kerry Logger Bill as it has been given by a friend country. in response to a question, Dr Firdaus has said that contacts with the US at the government level are in progress and smooth coordination re- garding US involvement in development sectors and revival of infrastructure in terrorism hit areas is likely to continue. She however, avoided to further comment when questioned over the likelihood of problems being escalated further due to the recent suspension of US aid to Pak- istan. in a bid to improve the agriculture production and its standards, the federal cabinet allowed signing of an agreement with the Brazilian government. informa- tion Minister said that Brazil is known for its quality agriculture products and its ex- ports. Likewise the cabinet also approved signing of an agreement with egypt seek- ing cooperation in the agricultural sector. Regarding the problem of escalating inflation and rising food prices, Chief Minister Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa Amir Haider Khan Hoti termed it the responsi- bility of the provincial government and assured to fulfill his government’s com- mitment in this regard. However, the cab- inet was informed that prices of 19 items in accordance to Consumer Price index were increased and prices of 10 items re- duced. Premier directed the concerned departments for taking active steps to re- duce the prices of such commodities. the cabinet was briefed by the fi- nance division regarding the implemen- tation of decisions and the processes, which were termed satisfactory. Dr. Fir- daus Ashaq Awan said that PSDP handed over 114 decisions to the finance division for implementation in which 100 deci- sions have been implemented so far. Sim- ilarly the cabinet also expressed satisfaction over the implementation of economic Coordination Councils (eCC) decision, taken in its meeting held on De- cember 1st 2011. Cabinet committee shelves privatisation plan for PSE’s g Bail out package for Pakistan Steel Mills on the cards g Govt to take similar measures to revive other public institutions like Railways, PIA and WAPDA g Reconstruction of infrastructure in Malakand division, North, South Waziristan and Bajaur Agency approved Government refuses scheduled bank loans worth Rs44 billion g 100 mmcfd gas from Kunnar Pasaki Deep to be linked to SSGC by December 31 Peshawar: Prime Minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani is being received by Chief Minister Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Ameer Haider Khan Hoti on his arrival in Peshawar. online PRO 15-12-2011_Layout 1 12/15/2011 12:41 AM Page 1
Transcript
Page 1: Profit 15th December, 2011

Pages: 7 Thursday, 15 December, 2011profit.com.pk

‘No short cuts to economic uplift’ Page 8

Stakeholders moot forgas load managementplan on December 16

ISLAMABADaMeR SIaL

nOt deterred by fizzling out of itsprevious gas load managementplan, the ministry of petroleum has

again convened a stakeholders meeting tofinalise a new plan for January-Marchperiod on December 16. An official sourcesaid the gas load management plan will befinalised in consultation with thestakeholders to avoid any controversy andfor its smooth implementation. He said thetop priority of government remains thedomestic sector which at present is facingextreme low gas pressures due to the nonimplementation of the gas loadmanagement plan. government had earlierfinalised a gas load management for themonth of november, which decided that theindustrial and Cng sectors both will get gassupply for four days a week. But the planfizzled out after the Prime Minister directedsupplying additional gas to the fertilisersector to meet up urea shortages. Additionalgas supplies to the fertiliser sector werediverted from the power sector, which let toan outage of 325 MW from the system.Since official agencies failed to make timelyurea imports government decided to let thefertiliser sector have uninterrupted gassupplies even during December. the gassupply to fertiliser sector will be cut inJanuary when it goes on its annualturnaround. this will ensure that 160mmcfd gas is available from the sector.Power sector is an aspirant for gettingadditional gas along with the industrialsector, as it is the time when hydel powergeneration of 3800 MW will go out of thesystem with the closure of canals for annualclean up. Ministry of Water and Power hassought Rs10 billion from government toincrease thermal power generation during40 days canal closure period. An additionalsupply of 100 mmcfd will be linked to thenational transmission network from KunnarPasaki Deep by the end of current month;the source said that the influential industrialgroups were lobbying to get additional gassupply for their use. However, he said, theministry has recommended allocatingadditional gas to the domestic sector tolessen their woes. the ministry hasstressed implementation of nine monthagreements with the industrial sector. theestimated shortage during the winterseason is of 1.6 bcfd and the conditionsduring January and February would bevery tight, the source said.

Carpedium – Siezethe day Page 3Iran pulls outthe Hormuz card Page 5

KARACHIISMaIL DILaWaR

tHe cash-strapped federal governmentseems to have either curtailed itsbudgetary expenditures or diversified itssource of financing that has primarily

been the local banking system during current fiscalyear. given the current economic ground realitiesthe above-statement though seems a far distantpossibility, certain developments on the financialmarket indicates that the impression carries someweight. On Wednesday, in what appears to be asurprising move, the funds-starved federalgovernment said no to the scheduled banks’ loan

worth over Rs44 billion. Central bank reportedthat ministry of finance had rejected the Rs44.80billion bids offered by the primary dealers, mostlybanks, against SBP’s auction for the sale of MtBs.the government papers were of 3-, 6- and 12-month maturity periods. the banks, which havedrawn enough criticism for prioritising the risk-free government securities in terms of investmentinstead of extending advances to the growth-oriented private sector, came up with massive bidsworth Rs20.550 billion, Rs17.750 billion andRs6.500 billion respectively for the three maturityperiods. But the government, SBP reported,rejected all bids. the banking sources view that therejection was because of the higher rate of return

demanded by the banking lenders to the resource-constrained government. “the banks had asked fora rate of return higher by 20 to 25 basis pointsthan the last cut of yield,” said the sources.Another market observer, however, said thegovernment might not needed money, specially,when it was to be repaid on a higher interest rate.the fact that State Bank has resumed mopping upexcess liquidity from the banking system throwsenough weight behind the perception that thecash-strapped government seems to have decidedto observe restraint in its ongoing borrowing spreefrom the banks. From July 1 up to Dec 2 (FY12)government, through the central bank, raised overRs772.40 billion from the state and scheduled

banks. the amount stands to be much higher thanRs383.69 billion it had borrowed during thecorresponding period last year.After months of injection operations, SBP ontuesday and Wednesday (Dec 13 and 14)conducted open market repo sale operation andmopped up Rs1.5 billion and Rs22.50 billion,respectively, from the banking sector. this trend iscontrary to the pre-Dec 13 practices of central bankthat, some analysts believe, through injecting hugesums in the banking system had been enabling thelatter to lend the same amount back to the funds-starved government. the analysts believe that itaugurs well for the country if government hasenough leverage to say no to bank loans.

PESHAWARStaff RepoRt

Setting aside proposed privati-sation of eight national level or-ganisations including PakistanRailways, Steel Mills, PiA and

WAPDA, the federal cabinet in its meet-ing held with Prime Minister Syed YousafRaza gillani decided to take steps for theearly revival of these loss making publicsector enterprises on war-footings.

the Federal Cabinet, after renamingof the Province as Khyber Pakhtoonkhwaheld its first ever meeting at Peshawar onWednesday. Beside others, governorKhyber Pakhtoonkhwa Barrister MasudKausar and Chief Minister Amir HaiderKhan Hoti also attended the meeting,which has taken stock of the existing sit-uation, especially the implementation offederal governments agenda.

Briefing media about the decisionstaken in the meeting, information Minis-ter Dr Firdaus Ashaq Awan said that thecabinet has rejected privatisation of eightorganisations and has on the contrary de-cided to work towards their early revival.in this respect, the affairs of Pakistan SteelMills remain on top of the agenda whereasthe cabinet unanimously decided to con-stitute a committee to carry out its restruc-turing and reforms. the committee wasdirected to frame its proposals along withthe appointment of its Chief executive Of-ficer and completion of its Board of Direc-tors within a week. in response to aquestion, the federal information ministerconfirmed that a bail-out package for therevival of Pakistan Steel Mills was alsounder discussion but it was linked with theappointment of Chief executive Officers(CeO) and completion of Board of Direc-tors. She reminded that so far the presentgovernment has already released anamount of Rs30 billion for the revival ofthe organisation and intends to furthersupport the entity in the light of its strate-gic and economic importance. However,she said, unless a strategy for administra-tive and managerial revival is not framed,such financial bailout plans will not yieldthe required results. On these grounds, thebail out package was delayed. She, how-ever, added “without a mega injection, re-vival of such entities will be a difficulttask.” Answering another question, she in-formed that for revival of such national

level institutions, the prime minister hasannounced chairing cabinet meetings ona weekly basis. After finalising a strategyfor Pakistan Steel Mills, the governmentwould go for similar steps in favour ofother public sector entities.

the federal cabinet approved recon-struction of infrastructure with an esti-mated 270m Saudi Riyals in MalakandDivision, north and South Waziristan andBajaur Agencies of the tribal belt. thisamount, she said has been released by theSaudi government as a loan. in responseto a question, she said, “there is no justi-fication to term this amount as an alter-nate to US pledges in accordance with theKerry Logger Bill as it has been given by afriend country. in response to a question,Dr Firdaus has said that contacts with theUS at the government level are inprogress and smooth coordination re-

garding US involvement in developmentsectors and revival of infrastructure interrorism hit areas is likely to continue.She however, avoided to further commentwhen questioned over the likelihood ofproblems being escalated further due tothe recent suspension of US aid to Pak-istan. in a bid to improve the agricultureproduction and its standards, the federalcabinet allowed signing of an agreementwith the Brazilian government. informa-tion Minister said that Brazil is known forits quality agriculture products and its ex-ports. Likewise the cabinet also approvedsigning of an agreement with egypt seek-ing cooperation in the agricultural sector.

Regarding the problem of escalatinginflation and rising food prices, ChiefMinister Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa AmirHaider Khan Hoti termed it the responsi-bility of the provincial government and

assured to fulfill his government’s com-mitment in this regard. However, the cab-inet was informed that prices of 19 itemsin accordance to Consumer Price indexwere increased and prices of 10 items re-duced. Premier directed the concerneddepartments for taking active steps to re-duce the prices of such commodities.

the cabinet was briefed by the fi-nance division regarding the implemen-tation of decisions and the processes,which were termed satisfactory. Dr. Fir-daus Ashaq Awan said that PSDP handedover 114 decisions to the finance divisionfor implementation in which 100 deci-sions have been implemented so far. Sim-ilarly the cabinet also expressedsatisfaction over the implementation ofeconomic Coordination Councils (eCC)decision, taken in its meeting held on De-cember 1st 2011.

Cabinet committee shelvesprivatisation plan for PSE’sgBail out package for Pakistan Steel Mills on the cards g Govt to take similar measures to revive other public institutions like Railways,PIA and WAPDA g Reconstruction of infrastructure in Malakand division, North, South Waziristan and Bajaur Agency approved

Government refuses scheduled bank loans worth Rs44 billion

g 100 mmcfd gas from KunnarPasaki Deep to be linked toSSGC by December 31

Peshawar: Prime Minister Syed

Yousaf Raza Gilani is being received

by Chief Minister Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Ameer Haider Khan Hoti on his arrival

in Peshawar. online

PRO 15-12-2011_Layout 1 12/15/2011 12:41 AM Page 1

Page 2: Profit 15th December, 2011

debate02Thursday, 15 December, 2011

KuNWAR KHuLDuNE SHAHID

in an environment when working profes-sionals rarely venture into the entrepre-neurial realm – for obvious reasons – MidCity Hospital provides an interesting nov-elty. the reasoning is devilishly simple.

Few eager and like-minded colleagues, in this casedoctors, get together, and leverage their skills in asimilar work-setting, but their own. this led to thecreation of Mid City. But of course that is not all.the new setting needed innovation to bag a power-ful punch, and the doctors had been researchinggroundbreaking advances in gynecology, hence thespecial focus on unprecedented technological mod-ernisation, principally in the widely misunderstoodphenomenon of so-called test-tube babies.

MAN BehIND the hoSPItAlDr Saqib Siddiq, doctor obstetrician and gynecologist,with a special interest in infertility, has more than twodecades of experience in teaching and practicing gy-necology. He was a prominent member of the pioneerteam that made Pakistan’s first test-tube baby in1989. Since then, while the practice has gained inpopularity and practice internationally, its successhas not found as many enthusiasts as expected con-sidering Pakistan’s dismal fertility statistics, the leastof the reasons being technological capacity. the mainhurdle has been getting past regressive attitudes. theproblem is not as simple as traditional orthodoxy re-tarding a progressive business model. While attitudi-nal pitfalls exist, a far more common deterrent haslargely been the collective failure of males in our pe-riphery to accept increasing infertility. the phenom-enon being more common among males thanfemales, societal strains are a far bigger stumblingblock. However, there has been progress in address-ing attitudinal rigidities of late.

MISuNDeRStooD AND MISRePoRteDContrary to popular belief, test-tube babies are notmade in test tubes. this term was made famous by theearly 20th century novel Brave new World. the cor-rect terminology is in Vitro Fertilisation, commonlyreferred to as iVF. Practitioners have also failed tocommunicate the procedure properly to the commongeneral audience. the embryo is not kept in a tightlyguarded, high-tech lab, but must be transferred rightback to the womb. Dr Saqib’s endeavour has also ledto a parallel crusade, one directly related to generalenlightening of the masses on the issue of gynecologyin general and fertility in particular. the birth-atten-dant syndrome, that was transformed into the mid-wife system, has been a disaster, particularly in far-offareas. People not trained to handle delivery and gyneissues end up causing serious fertility problems, in-creasing the incidence of infertility. Part of the hospi-tal’s marketing drive is understandably overcomingthis basic information gap, which is made worse by re-gressive attitudes. Yet of late there has been progress.

MID CIty – CASe StuDyestablished on 1st January 2011, Mid City Hospital is amajor breakthrough en route to disease curtailment inPakistan. it is the pioneer of ‘steam cell therapy’, whichwas unfathomable in the days gone by and is now a ver-itable reality. Mid City Hospital is the brainchild of DrSaqib Siddiq, who is the driving force behind conjuringup such pioneering technology that promulgates ‘Ob-sterics’ and ‘gynaecology’ like it has never been donebefore. Dr Saqib Siddiq is the pioneer of iCSi (intra Cy-toplasmic Sperm injection) technology in Pakistan androse to fame owing to his groundbreaking contributionin iVF (test tube baby). the iVF project is a novelty inPakistan and Mid City Hospital ensures that all basesare covered in providing the healthcare facilities, care,

hygienic atmosphere and state of the art facilities fromthe top drawer. With a success rate of 35 per cent MidCity Hospital ranks amongst the topmost hospitalsaround the globe. the hospital also guaranteessupreme nourishment of the baby and ensures that itcomes with its own natural resources to cure diseases.Owing to a colossal breakthrough in medical researchit has been discovered that umbilical cord blood andcord tissue are among the most opulent sources of stemcells that have a massive potential to treat over 75 men-acing ailments and has the potential to counter morethreats in the future as well.

SAfety fIRSt, CoRe ReSPoNSIBIlItythe team ensures that the entire process is a sim-ple and painless process that ensures the safety ofthe child and the entire family. it has also beennoted that cord blood is a rich source of lifesavingstem cells for the baby, and can also be used as ex-tremely fruitful alternatives to embryonic, bonemarrow and other stem cell types. Dr Saqib Sid-diq’s revolutionary mind ensures that the atten-tion to detail is uncompromising and all theprerequisites are taken care of. All the protectivemeasures aren’t merely for the benefit of the baby,they connote protective measures for the entirefamily; an investment for the entire family, if youwill. When one banks his baby’s cord blood stemcells with a private bank, one can indubitablyenjoy peace of mind with the knowledge that thebaby’s stem cells are available – should there everbe a need. it is indeed a once in a life time oppor-tunity to preserve a biological source that could actas a lifesaver for the child and the family members.Also, it is a lifesaving to bone marrow transplants,which can be quite cumbersome to deal with. Andmore importantly using cord blood stem cells inlieu of other alternatives ensures that there is alower probability of graft versus host disease

(gVHD) and a much greater likelihood of findingan apposite tissue match. Cord blood is also facileto retrieve and availability is not an issue unlikethe bone marrow which is harder to trace in syn-chrony with a particular HAD type.

AS GooD AS ANyWheReMid City hospital provides the apt mélange of med-ical savoir faire and personalised care. it also ensuresthat one doesn’t have to face the tiring prospect ofgoing abroad for treatment, and genuine world classfacilities are available in our neck of the woods. Com-fort, health, excellence or cleanliness; none of the in-gredients of ideal healthcare are compromised andhence Mid City hospital is one of a kind in terms ofits all-round repertoire. in addition to the aforemen-tioned iVF, there is a myriad of other surgeries thatthe hospital, under the competent leadership of DrSaqib, offers. Dr Saqib has created a marvel in MidCity hospital and the facilities provided are secondto none. One only has to visit the place, and the am-biance of the place takes care of the rest.

DoWN the RoADthe good doctor’s future plan is to set up a state ofthe art medical college alongside the hospital. thelast two years or so have seen a mushroom growthamong medical institutions, and quality of mostcannot possibly be guaranteed. though bogusschools should be discouraged aggressively acrossthe board, the matter is more sensitive when itcomes to medical training, as students will sooneror later find themselves directly impacting lives ina very important manner.

The writer is Sub-Editor, Profit. He can be

reached at [email protected]

Mid City Hospital A breakthrough in medicineand entrepreneurship

NAuMAN AHMAD KHAN

tHe Financial Year 2010-2011 wasnot fruit full for the cement indus-try of Pakistan. Sluggish demandin the local market, increased com-

petition in the international markets and afall in profit margins marked the highlightsof the financial year. in addition to this, bro-ken promises from the government, disrup-tion of distribution channels due to floodsand increase in raw material (coal) costs fur-ther added to the misery of the cement man-ufacturers. the demand for cementremained stagnant in the local market due toinadequate public spending and negligibleprivate sector spending because of lack ofgeneric economic growth. the governmentcut down on its Public Sector DevelopmentProgram (PSDP) by 77 per cent during the fi-nancial year. this was mainly because the al-

located funds were not utilised properly. Onthe contrary, the budget for the Fiscal Year2012 does feed some hope. PSDP has beenallocated Rs710 Billion for the year. What re-mains to be seen is that how effectivelywould this capital be utilised?

the private sector demand was weakthroughout the year. this was due to low percapital income and little investor confidencein the economy. the private sector took onlittle or no construction activity which forcedthe players in the industry into severe pricecompetition forcing the manufacturers to sella cement bag for as low as Rs235 although,later on the manufacturers disciplined theirprices which reached the Rs380 per bagmark. During the FY 2011, the domestic dis-patches fell to 22 M tonnes from 23.551 Mtonnes in the previous year, marking a 6.9per cent decrease. the international marketdid not provide too much support to the ce-

ment manufacturers. in the past the cementindustry had gradually clawed its way to be-coming one of Pakistan’s major export in-dustries. However, after experiencing yearsof growth the cement industry had to face atough year in the international market. inthe past cement has been exported toAfghanistan, india, Sri Lanka, China andAfrica. However, in the outgoing year therewas some increased competition from theMiddle east and the cement industry was hitwith a fall in cement exports. the cement ex-ports fell by 11.55 per cent from 10,657,235M tonnes to 9,426,112 M tonnes.

government did not play its part in re-viving the cement industry. if 80 per centof one of your favorite export industrieshas suffered huge losses, then it is obviousthat they are in trouble. the capacity utili-sation of the industry was down to 76.21per cent in the year. Pakistan government

had offered to pay an inland freight sub-sidy which never materialised and the ce-ment manufacturers had to sell theirproducts in the local market at very lowcosts because the cost of transporting thecement to the harbour for exports was toohigh. However, the government did reducethe Federal excise Duty and the generalSales tax. the minority who did registerprofits had the advantage of being veryclose to the harbour and exported most oftheir produce. During the year, nature alsoseemed to be harsh on the cement indus-try. there were massive floods which dis-rupted all the distribution channels andpegged the economy back. Lack of distri-bution channels meant that there was dis-ruption in the supply of key raw materialssuch as coal and limestone and the cementcould not be transported over to the mar-ket place for sales. in addition to this the

input costs of the industry were on a high.Coal is the major energy source for the ce-ment sector and it cost $116.3 per tonne.this was an all-time high. Same was thecase with furnace oil and gas.

Currently, the cement industry doeslook in shatters but there is some reason tobe optimistic. the extreme damage causedby floods has to be reconstructed. this isbound to increase the local demand of ce-ment. Urbanisation is also a growing trendin Pakistan and this brings along it the de-mand for increased construction. the devel-opment in Afghanistan is on a rise as wellespecially after a growing gDP. the cementmarket should look to capitalise on that.

The writer is London School ofBusiness and Finance graduate who is

currently working as an externalauditor at KPMG

A tumultuous year for the cement industry

PRO 15-12-2011_Layout 1 12/15/2011 12:41 AM Page 2

Page 3: Profit 15th December, 2011

THe main reason behind the current Oc-cupy Wall St. protests and others like it isthe idea that societies have become fartoo unequal. Whilst inequalities betweencountries may be falling-thanks largely to

the rising average incomes of the two most populouscountries, China and india, over the last decade-it re-mains true that people are more concerned about in-equalities in their own countries and communities.

Recent evidence by economist nancy Birdsall sug-gests that income inequalities between households and

regions have, for a largenumber of countries, actu-ally been increasing. Forexample, in the U.S. thetop 1 per cent now own 40per cent of the nation’swealth and their incomeshave increased by nearly20 per cent over the lastdecade whilst that of othergroups has stagnated. Asimilar story holds for U.K.and Japanese salaries and

for many other countries across the world as well. inBritain, for example, the average pay of the CeO in atop 100 company is nearly eighty times that of the av-erage salary of a full-time employee.

Of course, it may be that inequality per se isn’twhat we’re interested in. After all, if everyone hasenough to lead a decent life then inequality isn’t avery forceful concept of justice. the problem is thateveryone doesn’t have enough and one reason whythey don’t is because the 1 per cent have been ex-ploiting the system for themselves.

if we look in our own context we see the sametype of pervasive inequalities that are found in manydeveloping countries. Fairly large income inequalities(though not as skewed as those in some Latin Amer-ican countries), hold across households, regions, cityand village, and within households themselves. togive one stark example of the levels of inequality: incomparison with countries of a similar per capita in-come Pakistan has 20 per cent fewer children in ele-mentary school (the figure rises to 40 per cent if we

just look at girls). What that suggests is that in moredeveloped countries there is less inequality betweenthose who get an education and those who don’t, andthere’s less gender inequality in education attainmentlevels as well. Some of these patterns are shared bycountries in Latin America and east Asia, where bythe age of 24, children from the richest 20 per cent ofhouseholds have at least six more years of formalschooling than the poorest 20 per cent.

Of course, inequalities in income are just one ofthe many types of inequality we should be concernedabout. inequalities in happiness, well-being, and op-portunities give us an idea of how well a society isdoing, whether it is ‘flourishing’ or not. And unequaldistributions of land, assets, educational attainmentlevels, and nutritional status mean there’s lesschances of a society flourishing. But why is that so?

One of the most important things to think aboutis how inequalities reinforce one another, so thatdisadvantages in one area (lack of education, say)can sustain or reinforce disadvantages in another:wages, or health status. But inequalities in differentareas can interact in other ways. Some of the mostrelevant for Pakistan are the ways in which inequal-ity is related to market and government failures.

in societies where markets are not working verywell it is possible that even those people with someinnate skills and assets don’t get the opportunity toinvest and they, therefore, remain poor. this couldhappen for the simple fact that because of poor in-formation (market failure) these people, relative toothers, don’t get loans.

But even if markets did work better, even if the poorcould invest, inequalities might still be a problem. Onefeature of poor, unequal societies is that public invest-ment in the social sector is weak. And here we come to acrucially important feature of unequal societies, namely:inequalities in income can be related to inequalities inpower. An unequal distribution of income might meanthat the elites (the 1 per cent), the rich and powerful, sub-vert the political, regulatory, and legal institutions fortheir own benefit. this might be inefficient and loweroverall income growth, but since they’re concerned abouttheir relative position in society that’s not a problem.

it is no surprise, then, that the elites should notcare about subsidising and improving the public sec-tor, or have any notion of ‘the common good’, sincethey are only concerned about their own privategains. But if history has taught us anything it is thatsuch extreme inequalities end up destroying the fab-ric of social life and the possibility of democratic pol-itics. At the very least, the elites should realise thatin a time of revolution the 99 per cent comprises anawful lot of people.

The writer is a professor of economics at LUMS

WHiLe the finance minis-ter’s revelation of netting700,000 tax evaders dur-ing the ongoing fiscal isappreciated, we will need

to see visible, on ground improvement toovercome our mistrust of just such boasts.Back at budget time, and slightly earlierduring our pre-budget seminar in Lahore,similar statements by Dr Sheikh led us tobelieve that this might really be Pakistan’syear of growth, that ambitious budget tar-gets reflect proactive posturing by the gov-ernment, that the finance ministry will turna new leaf by finally checking unnecessaryleakages and stimulating tax receipts toease the centre’s fiscal space.

Yet there has been little to back tallclaims, save the odd statement by the odd of-ficial, followed by the odd news-item the fol-lowing day. the economy remains as it was,hemorrhaging billions annually due to offi-cial inefficiency with both tax and exports

earnings unimpressive, not nearly enough togrow eight per cent of gDP in the mediumterm to absorb the furious 3.5 per centgrowth in the labour force. Dr Sheikh alsonoted the undeniable centrality of the privatesector with regard to putting the economyback on track. Yet his tenure at the financeministry has not met with success on prom-ised privatisation of sick public sector entitiesrunning the government into ruinous debt.

if what has been is any indication ofwhat will be, then Dr Sheikh should expectfew serious minded people to take his latestclaims seriously. However, if the future isto be any different from the past, we willhave to do exactly what Dr Sheikh hasnoted. there can be no other way. the gov-ernment’s earning capacity needs seriousupgradation, and for that a paradigm shiftis needed in both tax receipts and tradeearning. Failing that, we will remain aid de-pendant, forever jammed far below the pro-duction possibility frontier.

Dr Sheikh and the tax net

In times of arevolution the 99per cent comprises anawful lot of people

The 1 per cent

Khalid Mir

E D I T O R I A L

Carpedium – Sieze the day

THe last few weeks were moreof a seesaw at the bourses – alittle surge here and there, fol-lowed by a small dip or a seri-ous plunge and vice versa

again, with bears dominating overall. Be-tween profit-taking and panic-selling, therecovery, whenever it came, barring an oddoccasion, was quite feeble – such as onWednesday by 23 points to make the KSe-100 index stand at 11,300.

this is quite steep, but this shrinkage isunderstandable. the abrasive political cli-

mate and the relations with the US on abrink were enough to cause their owntremours. in the thick of it, as is the wont inthese winter months, the load-shedding ofgas has brought its own havoc by chokingtwo critical industries – fertiliser and textile.

Deprived of gas for four days in thesepeak production weeks when winter andspring inventories in the west have to becatered to, the textile barons are up in armsat turning off the gas tap for four straightdays and threatening street protests. Andsince gas is one of the ingredients in fer-tiliser production itself, and not merely anenergy resource, scrips in this otherwisehighly profitable sector too have taken apasting of sorts.

the confidence of the foreign investorswas not that high in the first place, reflect-ing in the net inflows being far less in sizeand volume than the outflows – which havebeen quite abrupt on occasions, creatingtheir own seismic waves. the geo-politicalsituation, more precisely the latest standoff

with the US, is also not making them gobullish on our markets.

For the Average Joe investor this is aperiod of some anxiety, for witnessing ero-sion in the value of ones holdings doescause pain. He must be asking, how longwill this situation prevail? the depressionthat a depressed market causes among itspatrons is nothing new. What needs to bekept in view is that the situation is notnearly as bad as it was during the melt-down that commenced in the later part of2008, causing it to lose more than twothirds in value to hit rock bottom at 4,600points by January 2009.

And unless something dramatic, some-thing really adverse, happens, there is notmuch cause to worry or panic. Keeping aclose watch though is a must.

Mian nusrat-ud-Din, who by the wayhandles my insignificant portfolio, is a canny,vigilant and scrupulous operator. the firsttwo attributes, and a few others, you’d find inmany in the markets all over the world, the

last in a select few. He isalso an irrepressible op-timist. With the KSe-100index having lost 700points in 10 trading ses-sions, which translatesinto value diminishingby a whopping three per cent, there is still ahint of gleam in his eyes. For the Average Joe,he sniffs an opportunity here.

“the market is at a low. there are op-tions out there for the taking. these wouldnot be there in a month’s time. this is thetime to go for it, if you have cash to spare”,says MnD. But as is his wont, he wouldn’tmake a statement without a rider. “i alwayssay that those who have done their buyingright, checking out on all the fundamentals,wouldn’t remain in the doldrums for longeven if they hit them occasionally.

“What i see is good dividends and cap-ital gain in the fertiliser, oil and the bankingsectors. Some companies have been excep-tionally good. Look at Fauji Fertiliser, it is

right now paying out 50per cent interim divi-dend from its thirdquarter earnings alone.What more do you ex-pect? After its boardmeeting somewhere in

February 2012, more moolah is likely to bethere”, says MnD.

He sounds right. in recent weeks, theFFC has lost around Rs30 in value, but it isgoing to make that up in the weeks to comewhen the year-end, new-year buyers get en-gaged as they do around this time. Anotherway to look at it is that the FFC had gainedaround Rs80 in value this year. So evenafter the recent downturn, it is still Rs50up. not a bad bargain for an investment ofRs100 apiece! the point here is, buy theright ones, and the odd cloud aside, onewould mostly be a winner.

The writer is Sports and MagazineEditor, Pakistan Today

Agha Akbar

For comments, queries and contributions, write to:

email: [email protected] Ph: 042-36298305-10 fax: 042-36298302 Website: www.pakistantoday.com.pk

BABuR SAGhIRCreative Head

hAMMAD RAZALayout Designer

ShAhAB JAfRyBusiness Editor

AlI RIZvINews Editor

MuNeeB eJAZLayout Designer

T h u r s d a y, 1 5 D e c e m b e r, 2 0 1 1

Despite the steepdecline in the bourse,we sniff an opportunityfor the Average joe

KuNWAR KhulDuNe ShAhIDSub-Editor

MAheeN SyeDSub-Editor

Tax thieves

With regards to the news “700,000 taxthieves to be clawed this fiscal year”published yesterday; as per the statementof the foreign minister, notices to200,000 tax dodgers have been sent whilethe remaining will be under tax net byend of the year. tax to gDP ratio isroughly 9 per cent. So, what is thepercentage of direct taxes? if the report ispointing out the percentage of totaltaxpayers, that is abysmal. Around 2million people in Pakistan paid directtaxes last year, out of a total of 3.2registered taxpayers and that also out of apopulation of 170 million. if the reporttalks about rates of direct taxes, then theyare slab wise, progressive.

SHoAIB ANSARIDG Khan

British isolation

this is with regards to the article “Britishisolation, not so splendid anymore” pu-bished yesterday. notwithstanding, whatthe Britain has to lose, allying with europewhile overlooking your own interests, be itshort or long term, is investing in a sinkingboat. it would rather be prudent forCameroon to sit out this one and see devel-opments. For rushing into this treaty justbecause the labour party MP's and indeedthe lib-dems have raised a hue would befoolish. they basked on the opportunity topoint score politically, but Britain perhapshas more to lose by sacrificing at this junc-ture than gain. As for the eurozone, had itbeen such a bliss, Britain would not have re-sisted joining it for more than a decade now.

CHAuDHARy BADAR IqBALCaRDIff

AveRAGe Joe INveStoR

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Thursday,15 December,2011

04news

MD Konnect holden ltd, usman Sheikh

The development of the ICTindustry in Pakistan has been agreat success story of which all ofus have been a part of

‘Breton-Woods system root causeof current global financial crisis’ISLAMABAD: Assistant Secretary general, Unitednations, Professor Jomo Kwame Sundaram, hastipped the flawed Breton-Woods system as the rootcause of the current global financial crisis.Delivering his lecture on the theme “global green: Anew Deal of economic Recovery” on the second dayof the annual conference of Pakistan Society ofDevelopment economists, he said the question ofeconomic recovery reminds us to reflect on missedopportunities, which were presented by the eastAsian crisis. Professor Sundaram tipped flawedBreton-Woods system as the root cause of thecurrent crisis. He argued that current crisis wastriggered by collapse of the US housing market. Hewarned that current system has become fragile andhas become pro-cyclical and there is a possibility ofdouble-dip recession. therefore, we need asustained and concentrated recovery effort, whichhas to come from fiscal stimulus. However, thecoordination at global level does not exist and eveng20 has not made any progress for the reformationof the system in this regard. the distinguishedspeaker highlighted lack of policy and regulatoryreforms to tackle the problem which has seriousimplications for poverty too. Staff RepoRt

Implementation on reformagenda can boost economy: ICCIISLAMABAD: the serious economic challengesfaced by Pakistan like, poor law and order situation,corruption, electricity and gas load shedding,escalating inflation and weak governance have put aserious dent on economy. Public sector must providesupport to private sector and formulate long-term andsustainable policies to create healthy businessenvironment for increasing local and foreigninvestment, said islamabad Chamber of Commerceand industry (iCCi) President Yassar Sakhi Butt,while speaking to a group of section officers led byBadar-ul-Arifeen, Director general of Secretariattraining institute (Sti) on Wednesday. Staff RepoRt

Shahbaz Sharif to meeteu delegation tomorrowLAHORE: Punjab Chief Minister MuhammadShahbaz Sharif is to meet the entire eU delegation ina reception to be held on 16th December 2011, inislamabad. the reception, organised and facilitated byPunjab Board of investment and trade (PBit), is inconnection with Punjab’s participation in theinternational green Week (igW), going to be held ingermany (Berlin) in January 2012. igW is the biggestglobal exhibition for Agri based traceable products. Aspokesman of PBit while giving details in this regardinformed that the chief minister shall discuss Punjab’spotential as an exporter of traceable fruits andvegetables to the european market. Staff RepoRt

lions Club vows to continueservices in Pakistan: Dr WingKARACHI: Lions Club international (LCi), world’slargest service organisation, has rendered remarkableservices in our catastrophe hit country, in terms ofbuilding houses and providing health facilities. thiswas stated by the president of Lions Clubinternational Dr Wing-Kun tam while giving a pressbriefing on LCi’s development projects for Pakistanand future plans at a local hotel. Lions Club’s formerinternational director, Malik Khuda Buksh, districtgovernors, neville A Mehar international secretary,South Asia also accompanied him. Staff RepoRt

SBP releases mark-up rate forbusinesses in KP, tribal areaKARACHI: State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) onWednesday announced the release of fourth installmentof mark-up rate subsidy on business loans for the periodof six months, ending on 31st December (2011), underPrime Minister’s Fiscal Relief Package to rehabilitateeconomic life in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, FederallyAdministered tribal Area (FAtA) and ProvinciallyAdministered tribal Area (PAtA). Duly completedclaims may be submitted by the banks at SBP-BSC(Bank), Peshawar, for reimbursement of mark-up ratesubsidy, for the period from July 01 to December 31,2011, on prescribed claim forms, separately for textileand other eligible sectors. Staff RepoRt

Bourse flat despite US reassurancesKarachi

Staff report

DeSPite an announcementfrom the US State Depart-ment assuring Pakistan that

the $700m foreign aid would not befrozen, the KSe-100 failed to incor-porate the news as the index man-aged a meager 22 point gain to closeat 11,300 points.

Had it not been for the strong per-formances by OgDC and FFC, theindex would have ended up in the redzone again as the scripts combined toprovide 52 points towards the indexgain. in the fertiliser sector, FAtiMAremained under selling pressure asconcerns remain regarding the futureof the CAn operation.

the cement sector stayed on pos-

itive ground as both LUCK andDgKC maintained an upward trajec-tory. With the market volumes onceagain at a lackluster 34.9m shares,investor confidence appears to be ina slump and only a stellar reason

could be the trigger that the marketdesperately needs, said Ali Hussain,Senior investment Analyst at HMFS.the KSe 100 index closed at11300.99 levels with the gain of 22.97points, while KSe 30 index gained

47.19 points to close at 10469.17 lev-els. All Share index closed at 7825.14levels after gaining 13.72 points.total 106 scrips advanced 102 de-clined and 97 remain unchanged outof total 305 scrips traded.

Agriculturists, industry leaders fearurea import might not help farmers

LAHoREIMRan aDnan

WitHOUt consider-ing the economicimplications, theeconomic Coordi-nation Committee

(eCC) of the cabinet has allowed the im-port of 200,000 tonnes of urea, whichwould cost national exchequer over Rs6billion on account of subsidy, Profit learnton Wednesday. Sources disclosed that theMinistry of industries and Production(MoiP) at the behest of its Senior Minis-ter Chaudhry Pervaiz elahi suggested theeconomic Coordination Committee(eCC) of the Cabinet to allow import of200,000 tonnes of urea. estimates show

that the government would require about$108 million for fertiliser import andaround Rs6 billion for subsidy to makeurea prices affordable for farmers.

However, both agriculturists and in-dustry leaders believe that urea importmight not benefit farmers as profiteersare on money making spree due to ab-sence of price control. they point outthat the official price of urea fertiliser ishovering between Rs1,450 to Rs1,500per 50-kilogram bag, while the commod-ity is being sold at Rs1,600 to Rs1,750 perbag. Speaking to Profit, Agri Forum Pak-istan Chairman Muhammad ibrahimMughal said urea prices had witnessed asteep increase of Rs150 to Rs170 per bag– after suspension of gas supply to ureamanufacturing plants – during the last

couple of days. He underscored that ifthe government did not restore gas sup-ply to fertiliser plants farmers would notbe able to achieve Rabi crops targets.

He said farmers would require ureafertiliser in a week or two. if the com-modity would not be available in mar-kets its prices could swell further. Anydrop in urea usage could easily reduceRabi produce by 10-12 per cent, he es-timated. On the other hand, industryrepresentatives state that urea manu-facturers have capacity to produce 6.9million tonnes of urea fertiliser againstthe national requirement of 6.3 milliontonnes. But curtailment of natural gas,which is the basic raw material of ureafertiliser, has compromised their capac-ity; otherwise domestic industry was in

a position to exports around 600,000tonnes of fertiliser. they also under-score that local industry is producingurea fertiliser at Rs1,480 per bagwhereas the same is being imported atRs2,970 per bag by the governmentthrough trading Corporation of Pak-istan (tCP). So far the government hasallowed 0.9 million tonnes of urea im-ports, in which not only huge foreignexchange had been eaten away but alsothe viability of domestic industry hadbeen threatened, they maintained. in-dustry leaders highlight that urea indus-try has 12-month gas supply agreementswith Sui northern gas Pipelines Lim-ited (SngPL). they have second prior-ity after residential consumers innatural gas Allocation Policy. theyhave court directives for uninterruptedgas supply. But nothing can help themget natural gas supply from gas utilitycompanies, they lamented.

g Industry producing urea fertiliser at Rs1,480 per bagg Drop in urea usage could reduce Rabi produce by 10-12 per cent

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Thursday,15 December,2011

news

CORPORATE CORNERetihad Airways sponsors AnnualMarathon with help of local charities

LAHORE: etihad Airways sponsored islamabadDashers’ first Annual Half Marathon where a sumof Rs525,000 was raised that will be utilised forbuilding the Mashal School and Cancer Hospital inLahore. A raffle draw was also held as part of thefundraising programme, with winners receivingtwo etihad Airways’ tickets to the UAe.the marathon was a joint collaboration betweenthe Canadian High Commission in islamabad andthe islamabad Dashers. Amer Khan, etihad’sCountry Manager in Pakistan, said “etihadAirways is proud to have been associated withsuch committed and talented individuals. We arealways on the lookout for ways and means bywhich we can help make a difference in the localcommunity.” pReSS ReLeaSe

Schneider launches containerisedpower and cooling facility modules LAHORE: Schneider electric, a global specialistin energy management, has announced two newfacility module power and cooling solutions for theeurope, Middle east and Africa region (eMeA).the new modular units enable data centre powerand cooling capacity to be added in 500KWincrements, allowing physical infrastructure to beright-sized to the it load and eliminating a majorcause of inefficiency and wasted energy. they alsosimplify the process of data centre construction,

removing unnecessary complexity as well as savingtime, money and other resources involved in fieldconstruction and integration. pReSS ReLeaSe

ZoNG launches Manchesterunited co-branded SIM

LAHORE: ZOng launched its highly anticipatedManchester United co-branded SiM in an excitingevent held at Royal Palm golf and Country. theevent that was hosted to officially launch the SiMwas well attended by socialites, celebrities, industryleaders, experts and members of the ZOng family.the SiM includes services like ‘Follow the Star’where customers will get free minutes and SMSwhenever their favorite player scores a goal,Manchester United following in different leagues,premium content, club news, video content, fantasyfootball, contests, exclusive games and to top it all,dial tunes in players’ own voice. pReSS ReLeaSe

Dr Mohammad Zafarullahjoins uCP as Pro-Rector

LAHORE: Dr MuhammadZafarullah, has joinedUniversity of Central Punjab(UCP) as Pro-Rector. Afterreceiving his doctorate degreefrom University ofStrathclyde glasgow, UK, heserved as a managementconsultant with the Pakistan

Ordinance Factories and Pakistan BroadcastingCorporation for their reorganisations. He alsoworked as consultant for a large irrigation networkproject in iraq near Baghdad. in 1990, he opted for

the field of education. He is former ViceChancellor of Bahauddin Zakrya University,Multan. His contributions for the developmentand innovation in the field of education areimmense. pReSS ReLeaSe

NuSt excels at Globalentrepreneurship Summit

ISLAMABAD: two students from nationalUniversity of Sciences and technology, SyedMuhammad Bilal Khalid and Fahad islam tiwana,once again proved their mettle and brought laurels toPakistan at the Second global entrepreneurshipChallenge, istanbul. they received internationalacclaim by coming in the top 3 teams presentinginnovative and business ideas, among 25 competingteams from across the world. they were also theproud winners of the previously held grand challenges;“Discover: nUSt Business Plan Competition” and“Lean Startup Machine Conference” in Pakistan. “Wefeel humbled and honoured at bringing glory toPakistan and nUSt at this international platform,”said the young winners. pReSS ReLeaSe

Bank Alfalah celebrates 400th branchKARACHI: With the inauguration of new branchon University Road, Peshawar, Bank Alfalah’snetwork has touched the 400 branch landmark.Strategic investment in its network and outreach isa part of Bank Alfalah’s pledge to expand thecustomer base. Commenting on the development,Mr Atif Bajwa, CeO Bank Alfalah, said, “BankAlfalah is a banking institution of choice. Wewould like to thank our valued customers for theirsupport. Continued rollout of geographicallydispersed branches in Pakistan is increasing our

outreach.” pReSS ReLeaSe

German legal scholar to visit lahoreLAHORE: Dr niels Petersen, a german lawyerand legal scholar, will be in Lahore from the 14thto the 23rd of December, on an academic visit. Hehas been invited by Syed imad-ud-Din Asad,Director Center for Law and Policy at University ofManagement and technology, to teach a three-daycourse on international trade and investment law.the course will be attended by bankers, tradeprofessionals, business managers, lawyers, and in-house counsels. pReSS ReLeaSe

Nokia launches Nokia N9 KARACHI: nokia recentlyhosted an exclusive previewof the nokia n9, built forpeople who appreciate astunning blend of design andthe latest smartphonetechnology. the event washeld at a local hotel whereHenri Mattila, Solution

Marketing Manager, Middle east and Africa (MeA)nokia, shared the amazing features of nokia n9."Withthe nokia n9, we wanted to design a better way to use aphone. this experience sets a new bar for how naturaltechnology can feel," he said. pReSS ReLeaSe

We are strongly interested inworking with more Pakistaniorganisations, particularlyPakistan-based corporations

Ceo CGI, Robert S harrison

LahoRe: a group of children from Make a Wishfoundation - pakistan visited pIa head office. Seenin the picture are Managing Director pIa, Mr nadeemKhan Yousufzai, Mrs Zareen Khan Yousufzai andpresident -Make a Wish foundation pakistan, MrIshtiaq Baig, along with the children. PRESS RELEASE

Eurozone and theFISCAL AUSTERITY ORGY

ALI RIzvI

“MeMBeR stateswould be eco-nomically bet-ter off if theyhad never

joined. european monetary unionwas generally mis-sold to the pop-ulation of europe," Stephane Deo,Paul Donovan, and Larry Hathe-way of the Swiss banking giantUBS said not so long ago.

the idea that the europeanmonetary union was mis-sold tothe european public is one thathas gained currency in recentmonths following the gradual un-raveling of the euro melting pot.What seems inevitable is the even-tual disintegration of the euro,since it is unsustainable and a fis-cal union will not solve the crisis,but rather prolong it. the euro-peans are victims of their own do-ings, the hard work of the last 50years has gone to waste.

When the fractious europeanclan gathered in Brussels, on thefateful day that was being termedas crunch time for the unity of theeuropean brotherhood, the sooth-sayers coined the term, the ‘eu-rogeddon’ for the chaos that willensue in case the euro fails. Andchances are, that it will. While theclamour for moves to strengthen

fiscal ties among the 27 eU nationscrumbled like a pack of cards afterthe British Prime Minister DavidCameron failed in his attempt towin concessions from Merkozy, itis expected that the talks will nowtake a different direction with the17 members of the single currency,and six non euro nations focusingon an intergovernmental agree-ment by March next year.

there is a huge trade-off insaving the euro from an imminentcollapse. the trade off is one thatentails that France, Spain italy andPortugal gulp their own hubris andtake orders from germany, in theevent of a creation of fiscal andmonetary unions. ironical, how afew years down the road the eurowas formed to rein in the germangiant. While reading Martin Wolf’sarticle in Financial times, i gotmesmerized by the first line,‘whom the gods wish to destroythey first make mad’. While manyhave digressed from the failure ofthe european stakeholders to focusmore on Cameron, the need of thehour is to analyse the remediesbeing sought by eurozones leadersto save the currency union. Whatthey propose is ‘tightening thescrews on fiscal deviants’ andagreeing with Mr Wolf, i feel theseare merely face saving measuresbefore the inevitable materialises.

While Merkozy have decidedthat there will be no fiscal, finan-cial or political union, they haveagreed to essentially strengthenfiscal discipline in what is beingtouted as ‘stability and growthunion’. the problem with the pro-posed fiscal discipline and you maylike to read more about the clausesbeing proposed, is that it is akin toa teacher trying very hard to makean ill-mannered student behave. itis improbable, out of the questionand will not happen because of theimplausible toughness of the rein-forced discipline.

this leads one to conclude thatoutcome of the fiscal austerityorgy, would be one where coun-tries are sucked into long termstructural recessions. the eurosingle currency will then be syn-onymous for prolonged economicslumps, wage falls and unemploy-ment. And the billion dollar ques-tion is, how long can it stand giventhe costs of such an arrangement.truth is, the eurozone has no cred-ible plan to save the continent andso they are looking wistfully at“the single green light, minute andfaraway, that might have been theend of a dock.”

Writer is News Editor,Profit. For comments and

queries: [email protected]

Iran pulls outthe Hormuz card

KuNWAR KHuLDuNE SHAHID

WitH the iranians toying(pun intended) with theUS over their espionage

thingamabob which had popped in-side iranian airspace, the mercuryis rising within iran’s perpetual al-tercation with the West. Parviz Sar-vari, a member of the iranianparliament’s national SecurityCommittee articulated that iranwas bracing itself for the closure ofthe Strait of Hormuz, as a part of aroutine military exercise. not onlywould this be iran’s proverbial handgesture to dear Uncle Sam and hischums; as far as the oil game is con-cerned this would resoundinglythrow the cat amongst the pigeons.

Strait of Hormuz is the strategiclocus of global oil shipment witharound 30 per cent of the world’ssea borne oil shipments traversingthe four-mile lane between iran andOman. there is a daily flow of 15million barrels of oil; 90 per centPersian gulf exports and 40 per-cent of the global consumption. MrSarvari expounded his stratagemwith regards to the military ma-noeuvre and the closing of theStrait, saying that “if the worldwants to make the region insecure,we will make the world insecure.”now this is something that wouldhave the West scared stiff! For, notonly is the military manoeuvre

pretty daunting on its own, haltingnearly a third of the world’s oil ship-ment would be a dagger in thehearts – and the wallets – of theWho’s Who of the oil gaming zone.

the geopolitcal apprehensionsare one of the paramount influencesover commodity prices. And consid-ering the fix that europe finds itselfin, and also the budget deficit in USand UK, the historically volatileMiddle east is on its way towardsmetamorphosing into a minefield.And indeed the sheer havoc that thenews about the strait being blockedin the near future – in fact a newsagency mistakenly reported that thedecision of blockading strait had al-ready been taken – caused can bedepicted via the slapdash price ac-tion. West texas intermediatecrude prices broke the $100 markas they escalated to $101.25 per bar-rel – a 3.5 per cent ascent. Brentcrude climbed 3.6 per cent to$111.10, and there was retractionwith Wti ending at $99.64.

the Strait of Hormuz has aspecial place in Washington’sdrawing board and while the fiscalrepercussions are obvious, the USdesire of securing freedom of seaswould compel their navy to flauntan aggressive riposte, as the waterof Hormuz reaches boiling point.However, experts opine that iran’sthreats are more deterrence driventhan out-an-out provocation for a

naval conflict. Analysts are label-ing it as a “covert intelligence war”on iran’s part and the country isusing oil as a political tool to keepall its bases covered with regardsto any possibility of conflict overits nuclear programme – thebiggest bone of contention be-tween the West and iran; and notyour Average Joe bone, it’s thefemur as far the current global dy-namics are concerned.

Also engulfed in this little gameof ours is of course israel – one ofthe biggest stakeholders in theaforementioned femur. iran hasregularly warned that any attemptsto up the ante in and around theircountry would result in a nuclearblitzkrieg over israel. When themenace of nuclear arsenal is cou-pled with the lust of oil control, youget a tnt hankering after an excuseto explode. While the geopoliticsmight be controlling the fate of themarket, the possible implicationsrun the entire gamut from pro-longed deterrence to sheer commo-tion! By targeting oil and in turn theglobal crude market, iran is stamp-ing on the West’s collective nerve.they might have it comfortablynumb at the moment, but a back-lash is inevitable.

Writer is Sub-Editor,Profit. He can be reached [email protected]

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top 5 perForMers sector wiseSyMBol oPeN hIGh loW CuRReNt ChANGe voluMe SyMBol oPeN hIGh loW CuRReNt ChANGe voluMe

Food ProducersAdam Sugar 17.00 16.02 16.00 16.00 -1.00 7,138AL-Noor Suger Mills 52.34 54.95 52.80 52.80 0.46 1,902Chashma Sugar Mills 7.99 8.30 7.97 8.30 0.31 49,195Colony Sugar Mills 1.76 1.80 1.80 1.80 0.04 1Dewan Sugar 2.11 2.15 2.10 2.10 -0.01 296

Household GoodsDiamond Ind. 8.20 9.18 9.18 9.18 0.98 1Hala Enterprise 6.01 6.90 6.90 6.90 0.89 50Pak Elektron Ltd. 4.06 4.38 3.94 3.94 -0.12 389,302Singer Pakistan 14.07 15.06 13.07 15.06 0.99 501Tariq Glass Ind. 8.30 8.50 8.31 8.39 0.09 11,224

Personal Goods(Colony) Thal 1.40 1.40 1.11 1.40 0.00 8,000Ali Asghar Textile 0.55 0.46 0.41 0.41 -0.14 2,000Amtex Limited 1.30 1.33 1.20 1.23 -0.07 30,238Artistic Denim Mills 21.00 21.00 21.00 21.00 0.00 400Ashfaq Textile 8.96 9.00 8.11 9.00 0.04 550

Future ContractsAHCL-DEC 28.55 28.95 28.40 28.76 0.21 53,500ANL-DEC 3.34 3.60 3.35 3.35 0.01 82,500ATRL-DEC 115.75 117.30 113.00 113.50 -2.25 240,000BAFL-DEC 11.85 11.90 11.75 11.75 -0.10 26,500BAHL-DEC 29.02 29.00 29.00 29.00 -0.02 500

Pharma and Bio TechAbbott Laboratories 101.11 102.00 101.00 101.00 -0.11 227Ferozsons (Lab) Ltd. 74.10 76.80 75.50 75.50 1.40 21GlaxoSmithKline Pak. 66.12 66.25 65.11 65.12 -1.00 1,593Highnoon (Lab) 29.60 29.75 29.30 29.30 -0.30 1,151IBL HealthCare 12.60 12.99 12.60 12.99 0.39 1,014

Fixed Line TelecommunicationP.T.C.L.A 10.24 10.48 10.08 10.15 -0.09 1,783,870Pak Datacom Ltd 36.49 36.25 35.95 36.25 -0.24 2,075Telecard Limited 0.81 0.88 0.78 0.82 0.01 13,572Wateen Telecom Ltd 1.80 1.99 1.77 1.80 0.00 156,283WorldCall Telecom 1.00 1.04 0.91 0.93 -0.07 1,076,370

ElectricityAltern Energy 6.25 6.00 6.00 6.00 -0.25 1,186Genertech 0.37 0.42 0.31 0.31 -0.06 16,006Hub Power Co. 36.45 36.70 36.45 36.50 0.05 901,477Japan Power 0.60 0.70 0.57 0.60 0.00 36,483K.E.S.C. 1.56 1.68 1.50 1.57 0.01 488,458

BanksAllied Bank Ltd 58.53 59.49 58.50 59.00 0.47 16,287Askari Bank 10.01 10.39 10.15 10.27 0.26 122,208B.O.Punjab 5.33 5.47 5.25 5.31 -0.02 281,491Bank Al-Falah 11.75 11.99 11.56 11.80 0.05 1,265,356Bank AL-Habib 28.75 29.40 28.95 29.00 0.25 157,733

Non Life InsuranceAdamjee Ins 42.99 43.45 42.25 42.64 -0.35 8,309Ask.Gen.Insurance 8.50 8.79 7.87 7.87 -0.63 2,990Atlas Insurance 36.00 36.40 35.40 36.40 0.40 215Century Insurance 6.94 6.94 6.50 6.94 0.00 400Cres.Star Insurance 2.97 2.97 2.00 2.97 0.00 501

Life InsuranceAmerican Life 14.50 14.50 13.50 14.50 0.00 2East West Life Assur 1.40 2.34 1.40 1.40 0.00 1EFU Life Assur 65.53 68.80 65.53 65.53 0.00 157

Financial ServicesAMZ Ventures A 0.33 0.36 0.27 0.30 -0.03 35,272Arif Habib Investmen 16.31 16.43 15.50 16.43 0.12 402Arif Habib Ltd. 14.71 15.10 14.70 15.00 0.29 4,491Dawood Equities 0.82 1.00 0.80 0.80 -0.02 5,998F. Nat.Equities 2.54 2.87 2.35 2.70 0.16 31,436

Equity Investment Instruments1st.Fid.Leasing Mod 1.56 1.60 1.54 1.60 0.04 1,041AL-Noor Modar 3.99 4.10 4.10 4.10 0.11 5,000Elite Cap.Mod 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 0.00 22,335Equity Modaraba 0.85 1.33 0.87 1.25 0.40 25,109F. Dawood Mut.Fund 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 0.00 35,000

MiscellaneousCentury Paper 13.03 13.50 12.81 13.50 0.47 9,890Pak Paper Prod. 31.50 31.60 31.50 31.50 0.00 100Security Paper 35.46 35.46 35.00 35.05 -0.41 500Pakistan Cables 31.72 33.30 33.29 33.30 1.58 502P.N.S.C. 12.99 13.00 12.21 12.75 -0.24 7,701Pak.Int.Con. SD 65.47 67.50 65.00 65.47 0.00 2TRG Pakistan Ltd. 1.30 1.35 1.20 1.23 -0.07 1,095,334Shakarganj Food 3.50 4.50 4.40 4.50 1.00 1,500Shezan Inter. 115.00 115.00 110.50 115.00 0.00 178Diamond Ind. 8.20 9.17 8.20 8.20 0.00 1Pak Elektron Ltd. 3.91 4.17 3.77 3.88 -0.03 54,107Singer Pakistan 13.07 14.05 13.07 13.07 0.00 1Tariq Glass Ind. 8.40 8.90 8.30 8.34 -0.06 3,421Grays of Cambridge 23.50 23.75 23.40 23.75 0.25 510Shifa Int.Hospitals 29.00 29.48 28.96 29.48 0.48 3,010Hum Network Ltd. 15.75 16.00 16.00 16.00 0.25 1,500Media Times Ltd 7.96 8.90 7.96 7.96 0.00 1P.I.A.C.(A) 1.84 1.90 1.80 1.85 0.01 12,000Sui North Gas 16.68 17.29 16.54 16.82 0.14 27,037Sui South Gas 16.94 17.80 16.61 17.34 0.40 117,218EFU Life Assur 69.42 70.05 68.00 69.42 0.00 120AKD Capital Ltd. 26.16 26.16 25.20 26.16 0.00 120Pace (Pak) Ltd. 1.35 1.44 1.25 1.28 -0.07 590,275Netsol Technologies 9.73 9.80 9.60 9.67 -0.06 9,299

SyMBol oPeN hIGh loW CuRReNt ChANGe voluMe

Oil and GasAttock Petroleum 411.29 419.00 410.55 412.00 0.71 36,564Attock Refinery 115.05 116.90 112.50 113.10 -1.95 463,796Burshane LPG 20.96 21.51 20.01 21.00 0.04 41Byco Petroleum 6.90 6.95 6.85 6.87 -0.03 113,350Mari Gas Co. 90.37 91.25 88.25 90.02 -0.35 16,930

ChemicalsAgritech Limited 16.99 17.50 17.50 17.50 0.51 500Arif Habib Co SD 28.54 28.85 28.25 28.40 -0.14 386,065Bawany Air Products 5.81 5.00 5.00 5.00 -0.81 3,000Clariant Pakistan 155.00 158.35 153.00 157.80 2.80 4,858Dawood Hercules 34.19 34.70 33.90 33.90 -0.29 37,823

Industrial metals and MiningCrescent Steel 19.31 20.00 19.00 19.79 0.48 615Dost Steels Ltd. 1.20 1.33 1.15 1.25 0.05 7,365Huffaz Seamless Pipe 8.40 8.50 8.35 8.35 -0.05 2,122Int. Ind.Ltd. 29.07 29.53 29.00 29.25 0.18 6,422Inter.Steel Ltd. 10.01 10.49 9.80 9.80 -0.21 2

Construction and MaterialsAl-Abbas Cement 2.11 2.30 2.00 2.30 0.19 370,668Attock Cement 51.93 52.79 50.06 51.65 -0.28 3,527Berger Paints 14.30 14.00 14.00 14.00 -0.30 95Cherat Cement 7.52 7.68 7.35 7.64 0.12 1,173D.G.K.Cement 20.22 20.53 20.11 20.30 0.08 1,564,009

General IndustrialsCherat Packaging 28.56 29.00 28.60 28.85 0.29 6,065ECOPACK Ltd 3.42 3.50 3.35 3.35 -0.07 8,506Ghani Glass Ltd 40.17 40.75 40.00 40.75 0.58 1,095MACPAC Films 7.70 7.70 7.60 7.70 0.00 890Packages Limited 85.83 89.51 86.10 86.10 0.27 2,553

Industrial EngineeringAdos Pakistan 5.25 5.99 5.30 5.30 0.05 105AL-Ghazi Tractors 174.55 183.27 177.99 183.06 8.51 5,018AL-Khair Gadoon 4.51 5.51 5.50 5.51 1.00 4,492Bolan Casting 28.50 28.01 28.00 28.01 -0.49 639Dewan Auto Engg 0.75 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.03 173

Automobile and PartsAtlas Battery Ltd. 167.13 169.00 166.60 167.00 -0.13 923Atlas Honda Ltd. 117.00 122.00 121.90 122.00 5.00 100Dewan Motors 2.13 2.20 2.10 2.20 0.07 602General Tyre 17.00 18.00 17.00 17.25 0.25 6,734Ghandhara Nissan 2.33 2.97 2.60 2.60 0.27 3,003

BeveragesMurree Brewery Co. 110.49 111.43 109.00 111.18 0.69 1,170Shezan Int’l 150.02 150.00 145.05 145.58 -4.44 203

Mutual Funds

fund offer Repurchase NAv

Alfalah GHP Cash Fund 501.2900 501.2900 501.2900 Askari Islamic Asset Allocation Fund 114.7196 111.8516 111.8516Askari Islamic Income Fund 103.6501 102.6136 102.6136 Askari Sovereign Cash Fund 100.6900 100.6900 100.6900 Atlas Income Fund 519.3500 514.2100 514.2100 Atlas Islamic Income Fund 519.0900 513.9500 513.9500Atlas Money Market Fund 516.9700 516.9700 516.9700 Atlas Stock Market Fund 453.1500 444.2600 444.2600 Crosby Dragon Fund 82.9800 81.3500 81.3500

fund offer Repurchase NAv

HBL Money Market Fund 100.2768 100.2768 100.2768 HBL Multi Asset Fund 87.0103 85.3042 85.3042 HBL Stock Fund 97.6745 95.2922 95.2922 IGI Income Fund 101.8987 100.8898 100.8898IGI Stock Fund 112.3545 109.6141 109.6141 JS Principal Secure Fund I 121.5000 111.5200 117.3900 JS Principal Secure Fund II 104.1200 96.5000 101.5800 KASB Cash Fund 0.0000 0.0000 100.1087

Markets

Thursday, 15 December, 2011

06

top 10 sectors

24% 01%Construction & Materials

Chemicals General Industrials

07%Electricity

02%03%

Fixed Line Telecommunication

01%Equity Investment Instruments

Financial Services

09%Banks35%Oil & Gas10%Personal Goods08%

International Oil PriceWTICrude Oil

$99.57

BrentCrude Oil

$109.50

STOCK MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Index Change Volume Market ValueKSE-100 11300.99 +22.97 28,210,881 1,894,064,621LSE-25 2809.5 -16.3 1,220,051 33,753,784ISE-10 2572.31 -22.02 9,430 589,080

Major Gainers

Company Open High Low Close Change TurnoverAttock Petroleum 409.86 428.45 412.50 422.98 13.12 166,881AL-Ghazi Tractors 192.38 200.90 195.00 200.81 8.43 6,975Fauji FertilizerXD 152.17 158.75 152.30 156.79 4.62 2,011,492Atlas Honda Ltd. 117.00 122.00 121.50 121.50 4.50 312,395Shell Pakistan 189.41 193.95 190.00 192.93 3.52 15,672

Major Losers

Nestle PakistanXD 2396.79 2400.00 2300.00 2314.00 -82.79 207UniLever Pak Ltd. 5416.58 5440.00 5395.00 5406.67 -9.91 13Bhanero Tex. 225.00 225.00 213.75 221.02 -3.98 310Exide (PAK) 165.31 167.00 158.25 162.12 -3.19 7,812Mehmood Tex 53.20 51.05 50.60 50.60 -2.60 2,677

Volume Leaders

Engro Corp 105.09 107.70 103.00 104.03 -1.06 3,711,526Fatima Fert.Co. 22.40 22.40 21.69 22.10 -0.30 3,256,595National Bank 41.36 41.60 40.22 40.49 -0.87 2,281,771Nishat Mills Ltd 40.09 41.86 40.22 41.43 1.34 2,116,774Fauji FertilizerXD 152.17 158.75 152.30 156.79 4.62 2,011,492

Bullion MarketPer Tola (PKR) Per 10 Gm (PKR) Per Ounce US$

Gold 24K 54,603.00 46,863.00 1,627.00Gold 22K 51,608.00 44,245.00 –Silver (Tezabi) 1,010.00 866.00 35.05Silver (Thobi) 1025.00 880.00 –

Interbank RatesUS Dollar 89.5928UK Pound 138.9763Japanese Yen 1.1491Euro 116.8827

Buy SellUS Dollar 89.20 90.00Euro 115.28 116.77Great Britain Pound 137.13 138.82Japanese Yen 1.1331 1.1435Canadian Dollar 85.24 87.61Hong Kong Dollar 11.28 11.54UAE Dirham 24.17 24.39Saudi Riyal 23.69 23.87Australian Dollar 88.15 90.88

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Page 7: Profit 15th December, 2011

Thursday,15 December,2011

news

07 Ceo Infotech, Naseer Akhtar

KARACHIStaff RepoRt

tHeRe are no shortcuts to sustained economicdevelopment, said governor State Bank ofPakistan (SBP) Yaseen Anwar. “We need todevelop the right strategies and then translate

these strategies into action,” the governor told the 12thManagement Association of Pakistan (MAP)Convention on ‘Leadership Challenges for BusinessSuccess’ held here at a local hotel.He said the country’s economic and political leadershipwas faced with multiple challenges of trade imbalance,inflation, unemployment, power crises and securitysituation and added that the challenges for making gooddecisions on these fronts required political will and aclear long term vision. Similarly, Anwar said, thechallenges for business leaders, though at a micro level,were by no means less critical. “Management of humanresources is extremely critical to the success of anybusiness across the globe,” emphasised the SBPgovernor. He underscored the importance of women,representing almost half of the country’s population, inthe work force. “How can we, as a nation, progress if 50per cent of our work force is in a non-productivecapacity?” SBP governor also urged the corporate leadersto take into account their corporate social responsibilityso that profit seeking was balanced against the objectiveof social service and well being of the society. Anwar saidcentral bank desired a more active role of the Board ofDirectors in setting the strategic direction of a bank aswell as to bring it under accountability. He said, to beeffective the concern and tone for risk managementmust start at the top. “You would agree that whilethe management may get influenced by businesstargets and short-term profitability, the board,representing owner’s perspective, alwaystargets for long-term viability and sustainedgrowth of the bank.” “that is why SBP hasalways emphasised the involvement of theboard and made it accountable forestablishing enterprise wide riskmanagement framework,” he added.Anwar said the formulation of policiesrelating to risk management only wouldnot solve the purpose unless these wereclear and effectively communicated downthe line. “CeO as a leader must ensurethat these policies are embedded in theculture of the organisation,” he said, addingfor the value of risk management to berealised, integration was essential.“therefore, the emphasis should be onintegrating risk management into the existingmanagement structure and processes ratherthan operating as an appendage,” he observed.“today we meet at a challenging time with manyheadwinds going forward,” the governor said andadded that the global economy was on a downhillpath and financial turbulence continued to affectthe masses across the globe. All this, he said, hadstarted in 2007-2008 as the private debt sub primecrises related to the US housing market transformedinto a systemic financial crisis that spread from the USto the euro area. “More recently, this has turned into a

sovereign debt crisis. the crisis, now in its fifth year,has morphed into a new phase of a political crisis,” hesaid adding in the euro region, important steps hadbeen taken to address the current problems. However,political differences within economies undergoingadjustment and among economies providing supporthad impeded achievement of a lasting solution; he saidadding that “what we have seen is a completetransformation resulting from the worst crisis ofmodern times.” SBP governor pointed out that therewere four key areas that had contributed to the crisisand remained relevant for both financial and non-financial firms; weaknesses in corporate governancearrangements; excessive risk taking for short-termgains, inadequate accounting standards and regulatoryrequirements in some areas, and mismatch between theremuneration systems and strategy and risk appetite ofthe company. “Most of the multilateral agencies andfinancial regulators have now increased focus onbuilding a more resilient financial framework includingdeveloping new standards for addressing the abovechallenges,” he added. He stressed that elevatingcorporate governance should not be confined to banks,but commercial concerns must also do the same. “Weall know the pace of globalisation has accelerated,resulting in increased domestic and global economicintegration,” he said adding “Our visionary businessand political leaders must be alert to the challenges theyface now and are likely to face in the future due to

developments in otherparts of the

globe.”

KARACHIISMaIL DILaWaR

RUPee remained weakerWednesday against US dollar onthe back of, what market ob-servers said was, burgeoning im-

port payments and a risk-averse behaviourof exporters concerned over a bleak eco-nomic outlook for the crises-hit country. Ac-cording to currency dealers, the day sawrupee trading at a record low of Rs89.58 adollar on the volatile inter-bank market. Atone point in the afternoon, dealers said, therupee value ranged between Rs89.44 andRs89.50 against the greenback that, a dayearlier on tuesday, had appreciated to alevel ranging between Rs89.10 and Rs89.20.

December 7 was the day when localcurrency had nosedived to, what the bank

dealers had then called it, a record low ofRs89.36 owing to panic buying of dollar byimporters on the inter-bank market to clearimport payments ranging from $40 millionto $45 million. According to official figures,the last six months, June-november, sawthe rupee devaluing almost by seven percent against the American currency withthe market observers foreseeing anotherseven per cent decline by the end of currentfiscal year, June 2012. “We believe PKRwould depreciate by 7 per cent in FY12 toclose the year around the levels of Ps92 perUSD. this is inline with last 20-yrs (FY91-11) average depreciation of 7.1 per cent,while it is above the last 10-years averageof 4.1 per cent,” observed topline Securi-ties in its latest analysis. Currency dealershold the central bank partially responsiblefor stimulating the present demand for

dollar on the inter-bank market. theyclaim that the media reports on deliberatecurrency devaluation by State Bank andthe regulator’s subsequent silence on theissue had created supply and demandproblem on the inter-bank market with im-porters doing 6-month forward-booking atRs93 and the exporters holding their dollarreserves to avoid a negative in case of fu-ture depreciation of the rupee.

Malik Bostan, chairman exchangeCompanies Association of Pakistan (eCAP),proposes that a formal policy announce-ment by the central bank may be an effec-tive remedy to the ongoing currency crisis.Also, the eCAP chief cites renewed Pak-USdiplomatic tensions and the resultant flightof capital as an attributive factor for thepresent rupee depreciation. “Foreign in-vestors are withdrawing their investment

due to heightening tensions between USand Pakistan,” Bostan told Profit.

there are analysts who attribute cur-rent negative balance in the rupee-dollarparity to the country’s deteriorating cur-rent accounts that saw a gap of $ 1.5 billionduring July-Oct FY12 against $ 541 millionof FY11. “the rupee has come under con-siderable pressure against the US dollar onaccount of more than expected weaknessin the current account while financial ac-count has also failed to provide any sup-port,” said the analysts. Analysts areconcerned that this deterioration in thecurrent accounts was reflecting adverselyon the dollar-starved country’s foreign ex-change reserves which have contracted to$16.6 billion after peaking to historical$18.3 billion in July. the unavoidable fu-ture drains like the repayment of $ 1.2 bil-

lion to the international Monetary Fundduring the second half of FY12 were alsoset to take a heavy toll on the rupee interms of its value against the greenback.the Fund also contradicts islamabad’s re-vised 4.2 per cent growth estimates main-taining that the economy would grow atmaximum by 3.5 percent.

Some see, and rightly so, the exporters’risk aversion amid a bleak outlook for thecountry’s ailing economy that, the iMFforecasts, must brace for a fiscal deficit ofnot less than 7 percent during FY12.

“the exporters are holding on theirdollars to avoid a possible depreciation inthe rupee value,” said a rupee expert. Onthe other hand, the importers are busy inpanic-buying and doing six-month ad-vance booking of the greenback at a rate ashigh as Rs93 to remain in the safe haven.

KARACHIStaff RepoRt

DeSPite positive news flow regardingprice and volumetric variance in oil andgas, country’s largest listed sector having40 per cent weight in KSe 100 index,

has so far posted a negative return of 5 per cent in2011. this 5 per cent return also includes the divi-dend. However, the sector has been able to outper-form the benchmark KSe-100 index by one per cent,said the analysts at Brokerage topline Securities.

“Foreign participants opting for risk aversionstrategy on account of global economic uncer-tainty, stood as the primary reason behind thisnegative performance,” said nauman Khan. “thestrain Pak-US relationship, ambiguity on the po-litical front, weakness in country’s economy andchronic circular debt, all augmented the negativesentiment.” Amongst 12 listed companies, onlytwo companies, Attock Petroleum (APL) and Pak-istan Oilfields (POL), have posted positive returnof 40 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively, whileall the rest provided a negative return to the in-

vestors. the worst performing stocks in the sectorare Burshane LPg and Byco Petroleum (BYCO),which posted negative return of 44 per cent and40 per cent, respectively, said the analyst. He saidwithin the oil and gas sector, listed e&P sector(PPL, OgDC, POL and Mari) provided an overallnegative return of 6 per cent in 2011YtD, whichwas in line with the benchmark return. POL stoodas the single company that posted positive returnof 38 per cent in e&P sector amid subdued foreignholding and volumetric growth due to tal block.On the other hand, Khan said OgDC and PPL thatcumulatively contribute around 32 per cent toKSe 100, posted a negative return of 8 per centand 9 per cent, respectively. “the former negativeperformance is primarily because of foreign sell-ing, while the later remained under pressure dueto expected additional supply after secondarypublic offering by goP,” the analyst said. Khansaid the oil marketing sector (three listed compa-nies in KSe 100 index) posted a positive return of11 per cent, thanks to 40 per cent return providedby APL. the other two, PSO and Shell, posted anegative return of 16 per cent and 5 per cent.

KARACHIStaff RepoRt

DeSPite the weak macro economicfundamentals, domestic demand inPakistan is surging. the fact thatcredit to private sector is non existent

(at least in the past one year), makes this evenmore astonishing.KEy DOMEStIC DEMAnD vARIAntSpERfORMAnCE In 5MAuto sales: in the first 5M of the current fiscalyear, auto sales registered a 20 per cent YoY growth.the rise in sales has come in spite of the averageprice increase of 4-6 per cent in the last five months.the persistent demand of autos can also be vali-dated from the fact that the import quantum ofCompletely Knocked Down (CKD), reported by SBPhas also increased to US$212mn, up 55 per cent,YoY during the period July-October 2011. Further-more, it is believed that the surge in auto sales iseven more impressive considering the quantum ofsecond hand car imports during the last 5 months.Oil consumption: inline with the auto sales,the oil consumption of the country has also in-creased. Overall, a 5 per cent YoY volumetricgrowth was witnessed, even after 5-7 per centjump in the oil prices in the country. it is be-lieved, the reasons for the higher sales could bethe re-allocation of the country’s energy mix.However, it is interesting to note that the overallconsumption of motor gasoline has increased by24 per cent YoY and furnace oil by 5 per cent YoY.Cement sales: the cement prices too have in-creased by 37 per cent YoY and 13 per cent YtD.However, despite the soaring prices, overall do-mestic sales have grown steadily at 7.1 per cent YoYin 5M of the current fiscal year.

fertiliser consumption: Since January, thefertiliser prices have surged by a whopping 45 percent or Rs460/bag. nonetheless, fertiliser appli-cation still increased by 3 per cent YoY, duringthe first 10 months of the calendar year. this in-dicates the feel good factor currently being en-joyed by the farm sector in the country. Realestate: the reality on ground vindicates our viewthat real estate prices at the posh areas of themain cities have witnessed an increase of 20-25per cent. As per our discussion with the key stakeholders in the real estate sector, buying in real es-tate is genuine and all on 100 per cent cash basis,said Muzzammil Aslam at JS. ‘they have identi-fied two sources of funds in the real estate sector,overseas Pakistanis and interior Sindh/Punjabareas. the primary reason cited for investment byoverseas Pakistanis in real estate is the unrest inthe Middle east and recession in europe, whilstfunds from interior areas are a function of wind-fall farmer income,’ he added.DOES tHIS MEAn fRESH fLOwS tO AR-RIvE At KSE? He said historically, a surge indomestic demand coupled with real estate boomhas triggered a bullish rally at the stock market,but this time around we do not see the same pat-tern in the stock market, as there is little retail in-vestor interest at the local bourse due to the capitalgain tax. However, on grounds of above facts, weare extremely positive on the outlook of the corpo-rate results, he said, adding that banking and fer-tiliser companies are all set to announce theirrobust annual results, while the results of the oiland cements companies are also poised to post de-cent earnings. Currently, KSe trades at an FY12ePe of 6.0x, which is at a discount of 49 per cent toits regional peers (vs historical discount of 34 percent) and offers a dividend yield of 8.2 per cent.

oil and gas sector outperforms KSe

Domestic demand on rise despite upward price pressure

Risk aversion fuels rupee weakness against dollar

‘No short cuts toeconomic uplift’

the brain drain is natural. If youngsters don’thave the opportunities to exploit their talentsor to try and do something really extraordinary,it is natural for them to go somewhere wherethey will find such an environment

Governor SBP

YaSeen anWaR

PRO 15-12-2011_Layout 1 12/15/2011 12:43 AM Page 7


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