Progress and Prospects of the Rice-Wheat Cropping System in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) since the Green Revolution
R. K. Malik
Senior Agronomist, CIMMYT-India, [email protected]
Acknowledgements
CRAWFORD FUND
ACIAR
HARYANA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY, HISSAR, INDIA
CIMMYT-MEXICO
UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE
CSISA-CIMMYT – USAID, GATES FOUNDATION, NATP- ICAR, RICE-WHEAT CONSORTIUM (RWC)
CHAMPION FARMERS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
% increase 1962-1987 % increase 1987-2012
Area Yield Production
India Wheat(currently about 90Mt p.a.)
Green Revolution(25 yrs)
Post-greenRevolution(25 yrs)
% in
cre
ase
ove
r 2
5 y
ear
s
0
20
40
60
80
100
% increase 1962-1987 % increase 1987-2012
India Rice( currently about 160 Mt p.a. paddy)
Area Yield Production
GreenRevolution(25 yrs)
Post-greenRevolution(25 years)
Source FAOSTAT retrieved 8 Sept 16
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
5
Green revolution Intensification Post-Green revolution
Yield perfomance (% growth p.a.) in wheat
India (Punjab)
1975-85 1986-94
1966-74
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Green revolution Intensification Post-Green revolution
Yield perfomance (% growth p.a.) in rice
India (Punjab)
1966-74
1975-85
1986-94
Post- green revolution phase in Punjab, India, the heart of the
green revolution, but decreasing relative yield growth
Source Murgai et al (2001)
Catalysing change with small and medium farmers of South Asia
• Most poor people are in rural areas
(800 M ).
• High proportion of non-farm household.
• The median annual wage of a farmers is
only US $ 290 which is approximately 2
months minimum wage of a worker in
Delhi- The Economist 30th April 2016
• Situational Assessment of Agricultural
Household show average income from
farming is US $ 59/month
• Rice-wheat cropping system (red dots) is
the heart of agriculture in South Asia.
WIGPEIGP
WIGP – Western Indo-Gangetic PlainsEIGP – Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1967 72 77 82 87 92 97 2 7 12
Whea
t Y
ield
(kg h
a-1
)
Bihar Haryana
Wheat yield for two representative states, Haryana (WIGP) and Bihar (EIGP)
1972 1977 1982 1987 2002 2007 20121992 1997
Major differences between regions:
• Climate: warmer and wetter in EIGP, more floods (but terminal heat common)
• Higher population density, greater poverty, smaller farms
• Poorer infrastructure: roads, markets, irrigation, credit
Green revolution wheat breeders in Haryana, late 1960s
WIGP ( Haryana) continue to perform better through agronomic management
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
Whea
t Y
ield
(kg h
a-1
)
1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
• Rice-wheat, millet-wheat, cotton-wheat
• Mod. operational land holding (approx. 4 ha)
• Birth place of green revolution,Changes since then:
• Better nutrient management• Zero till borne of necessity• Management of rice straw• Earlier sowing• Land levelling• Diversification?• Breeding - slower yield progress but rust held at bay
75% wheat in Haryana is surplus
Improving Soil health: Replacing general recommendations with condition specific approaches
Treatment
FP 3.43 c 0 c 130 a 65 a 22 c
SR 3.55 c 0.11 c 88 c 40 c 26 c
RWCM 3.74 b 0.30 b 109 b 55 b 35 b
RWCM+K 3.91 a 0.48 a 109 b 55 b 65 a
Yield Δ Yield from FP N P2O5 K2O
On-farm trials Haryana (N= 33)
Δ in Grain yield in RWCM compared to FP: + 0.30 to 0.50 t/haΔ in fertilizer: -20 kg N/ha; -10 kg P2O5/ha; +13 to 43 kg K2O/ha
• How to increase agronomic efficiencies in soil fertility
management
• Decision tools, green seeker, nutrient expert (NE), Crop
manager (CM)
• Knowledge dissemination approaches
• Soil health cards
• Digital soil mapping technology
(Farmer practice)
(State recommendation)
Herbicide resistance management launched through ACIAR project ( Phalaris minor resistant to isoproturon)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1993-94 1994-95 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00
Net R
etu
rn (
$/h
a)
Sonipat KarnalSeverely affected herbicide resistant district in Haryana
Moderately affected herbicide resistant district in Haryana
Inverted “T”cross slot seed drill from New Zealand. In1982, up to 1992 no impact, why?
ZT- at dead end till 1993. Factored in five years yield losses due to resistant Phalaris. ZT reduced Phalaris
population to a sustainable level. Provided a paradigm shift leading to its evolution in WIGP.
A major reform after Green Revolution
Inverted “T” opener
It all stacks-up - impact on diversification and wheat productivity in weedy district in the state of Haryana – WIGP (Source: Statistical abstract of Haryana)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2K 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
Sunflower Area ('000 ha)
Wheat Area ('000 ha)
Resistance management brings back wheat area after
1996-97
Herbicide resistance leads to diversification until
1996-97 Switching to Z-till wheat
Summary of benefits and costs (net present valuea to 2030)(Source: Vincent and Quirke, 2002, ACIAR Project 1998-2003, cost 1.1 million A$,
ex-ante based on 0.35 M ha Z-till for 30 years)
Producer benefitsbNet present value
A$m (%)
Prevention of future decline in yield through re-emergence of herbicide
resistance103 5.7
Reduction in herbicide outlays 175 9.7
Reduction in tillage costs 950 52.5
Avoidance of ling-term yield decline through degradation 24 1.3
Yield premium due to early sowing and closer spacing 557 30.8
Total producer benefit (world prices) 1809 100.0
Net gain to India 1809
aDiscount rate of 5%, bIncrease in gross margin valued at world prices
Evolution of zero tillage created new small scale industry in Haryana & Punjab(n=50), 1994-2003
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
ZT drills sold/ year in Punjab
ZT drills sold/ year in Haryana
Manufacturers in Haryana
Manufacturers in Punjab & Haryana
Num
ber
of
ZT m
anufa
cture
rs (
line)
Num
ber
of
ZT d
rills
sold
by 5
0
ma
nufa
cture
rs (
colu
mn)
Source: Laxmi et. al 2007
Cumulative distribution of sample farmers according to date of wheat sowing (survey Haryana 2011)
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1/11
/200
9
6/11
/200
9
11/1
1/20
09
16/1
1/20
09
21/1
1/20
09
26/1
1/20
09
Share
of fa
rmers
who c
om
ple
ted w
heat
sow
ing
Date of sowing
ZT (n = 133)
CT (n= 86)
Source: Krishna and Veettil (2014)
Bright future of rice residue retention to mitigate climate variability and heat stress (2012-13)
Source: CSISA Hub Haryana
Laser Assisted Precision Land Leveling - scale of adoption Haryana
• Estimated amount of irrigation water saving- 1 bn m3 yr-1
• Yield gains in rice is 175000 t, wheat 155000 t, RW system-0.33 Mt yr-1
• GHG mitigation 163,600 MT of CO2e/yr
Sources: CIMMYT-CCAFS Impact Study (2014)State Department of Agri, GoH (2014)
Haryana and WIGP Lessons learnt : How to translate the power of agronomic management?
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Whea
t Y
ield
(kg/h
a)
Dwarf
wheat
Herbicide
resistance
peeks
ZT
became
popular
Veery lines
introduced
Sowing
advanced
The future for further yield increase and better sustainability:• Dependence on supportprices and subsidies• Incomplete adoption of
Z-till• Cost of labour• Lack of diversity• New weeds/Resistance• Declining water table• Nitrate pollution• Soil Health, SOC• Global Warming
EIGP (Bihar): Focus on providing solutions to realize
its true potential• Rice-wheat and winter
fallow land, • Tiny farms ( 0.3 ha) • Poorer infrastructure,
markets, higher costs• Less progress during and
after green revolution years
Changes since then• Greater R, D and E focus• Improved seed
replacement rates• Earlier seeding and zero
till wheat• Hybrid rice• Winter maize• Double, triple cropping.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1967 72 77 82 87 92 97 2 7 12
Whea
t Y
ield
(kg h
a-1
)
1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Bottom-up R, D and E: Diagnostic on-farm data mining techniques: learning from landscapes, on farm crop cuts EIGP (2012 to 2014)
Diagostic surveys and CART
analysis disentangle the complex
relationships between farmer
practice and achieved yields, and
identify entry points for
sustainable intensification.
Wheat yield
(N= 1485)
Average to poor (4.3 t/ha)
Weed management
Good (4.9 t/ha)
Irrigation
< 2.5 (4.6 t/ha) ≥ 2.5 (5.1 t/ha)
After Nov 30 (3.4 t/ha) Before Nov 30 (4.7 t/ha)
Sowing day
Variety
Short
(2.8 t/ha)
Long
(3.7 t/ha)
Tillage
CT(4.6 t/ha) ZT(5.2 t/ha)
Variety
Short (4.0 t/ha) Long ( 5.2 t/ha)
Irrigation
<3 (5 t/ha) ≥3 (5.7 t/ha)
K2O
<3
4 k
g/h
a (
2.6
t/h
a)
>3
4 k
g/h
a (
4.2
t/h
a)
Sowing
day
Aft
er
15
Dec
(3.0
t/h
a)
Befo
re 1
5 D
ec
(3.0
t/h
a)
Early wheat sowing is critical to avoid the terminal heat: Grain yield of wheat in EIGP
Opportunities for timely planting:
• Shorter duration rice (e.g. hybrids)
• Early rice establishment
• Post harvest mechanization for rice
• Zero-tillage for wheat
• Land configuration and drainage
• And calls for varieties adapted to early sowing!!
SYSTEMS-BASED APPROACHES ARE ESSENTIAL
Based on Crop cut data – 6809 samples in 7 years
in Bihar & eastern UP
y = -0.0427x + 5.2045R² = 0.9641
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61
Wh
ea
t G
rain
Yie
ld (
t h
a-1
)
Sowing Day
Average of Grainyield
Nov 1 Dec 31
Laser land leveling – scale, scalability and speed in EIGP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
With Laser Land leveling Without Laser Land leveling
$/ha
Irrigation Cost in rice ($/ha)
• Diesel pump based irrigation in EIGP is costly.
(Lybbert et al. 2014)
Analysis of farmer behaviour shows sensitivity to cost of levelling
Needs about 6 hours to level 1 hectare
Crop establishment method and rice-wheat system productivity (Bihar, Avg of 3 years: 2012-15)
• PTR- Puddled transplanted rice
• CTW- Conventional till wheat
• ZTW- Zero till wheat
• MTNPR- Machine transplanted non puddled rice
• DSR- Direct seeded rice
• SRI- System of rice intensification
• SWI- System of rice-wheat intensification
Treatments Rice Wheat System
Tillage and CE method
PTR fb CTW 6552 a 4254 c 10806 b
PTR fb ZTW 6552 a 4670 b 11216 ab
MTNPR fb ZTW 6931 a 4913 a 11845 a
DSR fb ZTW 5960 b 5149 a 11110 ab
SRI fb SWI 6706 a 4622 b 11328 ab
Performance of rice hybrids and varieties in MTNPR and DSR in EIGP in kharif (summer)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Machine transplanted non-puddled (MTNPR)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Paddy Y
ield
(t/
ha)
Hybrids
Direct seeded rice (DSR)
Hybrids
Maize: bringing diversification after evolution of single cross hybrids (SCH) in
Bihar and Eastern UP, ; both summer (kharif) and winter (rabi)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990-95 1996-00 2001-05 2006-10 2011-15
SCH
DCH
Composite (OPV)
Notification Trend in Maize# of cvs registered
Double and triple cropping systems optimization (In collaboration with IARI, Regional station, Pusa, Samastipur, Bihar)
CS1: Rice (long duration inbred MTU-7029) fb wheat
CS2: Rice (Med duration hybrid Arize-6444) fb wheat
CS3: Rice (short duration hybrid Arize-6129) fb mustard fb maize
CS4: Rice (short duration hybrid Arize-6129) fb mustard fb mung
200% Intensity
300% Intensity
Winter (Rabi) Summer (Kharif)(B
ase
d o
n g
rain
pri
ce)
Rice
Wheat or Mustard
Moong or Maize
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1967 72 77 82 87 92 97 2 7 12
Whea
t Y
ield
(kg h
a-1
)
Looking ahead for a bright future through tillage
reforms in EIGP
The future:• More zero till and small
machines• More early seeding More
laser levelling• DS and hybrid rice • Winter maize• Triple cropping• Breeding opportunities from
agronomy, esp early seeding.
1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Early sowing
Zero tillage
Leveraging the agricultural innovation system (AIS)
‘a network of organizations, enterprises, and
individuals focused on bringing new products, new
processes, and new forms of organization into
economic use…..’ (World Bank 2006)
Service providers
RetailersDistributors
Universities
Companies
State Department of Agriculture
BAOSMSKS DAO
KvK
ICAR / IARI
Neighbours
Farmer
PACS
NGO
NSC
Weak link Normal link link Strong link
CSISA’s work plays complementary and catalytic roles by engaging and uniting partners for indirect impact pathways
Analysis: J.
Andersson
CSISA-HUB
Agricultural Innovation System (AIS) – depth of engagement with all the key
agents
For example: number of Zero Till Service Providers in Bihar and Eastern UP Hubs
Uttar Pradesh
Bihar
NEPAL
INDIA
Source: CSISA Web Mapping, www.csisa.org
Lessons learnt : Agricultural innovations for impact and scale
• Change from mission oriented top- down approach to diffusion oriented or bottom- up approach.
• Strategic partnerships (public + private sectors)
• Strengthening markets and scale appropriate mechanization.
• Will diversification ‘work’ for arresting groundwater depletion in the NW IGP? Policies to increase the price of water? Diversification within RWCS will work?
• Yield plateaus and climate change. What happens if global temperature continues to rise? What can help? Effective evolution of agronomic management , delivery process and policies
• Breeding for high-yielding and stress-tolerant rice and wheat cereal varieties
• Strengthen the data collection and statistical packages on why some technologies fly and some flop.
• Technology flow across South Asian countries should be encouraged
Record wheat 7.3 t/ha eastern UP, 2011-12 ,with best bet technology
The development and delivery of technologies is greater than the sum of its parts
• Why green revolution scaled-out in late 1960s and 1970s ?
• Because imported seed directly went to farmers field, tested, assessed, validated and accepted
• Why BT cotton adoption was more rapid and pervasive?
• Because it brought big advantage out of crisis and farmers created pressure for policy
• Why zero tillage is more transformational?
• Because it was a paradigm shift and mind-set issue
• Why hybrid rice adoption is more in Bihar and Jharkhand?
• Because we were not able to replace any competitive variety against MT 7029 . Also hybrids could fit the stress environment
• Why laser land levelling was adopted with no research in India?
• Because it had a business case and tested and adopted at the same time.
• Why early wheat sowing was accepted in all ecologies ?
• Because every thing was tried and tested at farmers fields
2002......................
Peter Jennings, FLAR, 2005
Yie
ld
Variety revolution
(semi-dwarfs – 2 t / ha)350 new varieties released
Agronomic Revolution(management gain 2 t / ha, )
Creation of FLAR
.......................1968 1995
The rice revolution in South America
Acceleration of Management Gains
Courtesy of A. Dobermann