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Daniel Pazmiño (PhD student)!David Karoly (Supervisor)!
Alexandre Pezza (Co-supervisor)!
Forecasting Southern Hemisphere Seasonal Bushfire Potential
Taken from: http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/02/bushfires_in_victoria_australi.html
!
2nd year PhD Project Presentation
• Key confirmation results
• 2nd year progress review
• Future work planned
Key confirmation results
1000 hPa air temperature
1000 hPa relative humidity
300 hPa zonal wind
Composites for seasonal (Sep-Oct-Nov) anomalies in Victoria (59 bushfire seasons considered in the period 1900–2010)
Data source: 20th Century Reanalysis Project and PeriAUS database
Key confirmation results
Data source: Daily FFDI data obtained from Lucas (2010)
McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI)
FFDI = f(T, Rhum, U, DF)
2nd year PhD Project Presentation
• Key confirmation results
• 2nd year progress review
• Future work planned
Bushfire versus heatwaves: 99 years of contrast in Victoria, Australia (1st research paper)
1000 hPa air temperature 300 hPa zonal wind
Victorian Seasonal Bushfire Index (VSBI)
T: 1000 hPa air temperatureRhum: 1000 hPa relative humidityUwnd: 300 hPa zonal wind
VSBI vs Bushfire events in Victoria, Australia for the period 1900-2010
Linear correlations (r values) for VSBI for the period 1972-2010
BE: Bushfire events
Seasonal bushfire danger using original reanalysis data
Seasonal bushfire danger using bias-corrected reanalysis data
Bias-correction of reanalysis data for FFDI variables
Additive linear scaling
Multiplicative linear scaling
At least 9,000 Ha destroyed by bushfires in Ecuador in 2012 summer season
Source: Ministry of Environment of Ecuador Photo taken from: http://www.larepublica.ec
Bushfire Danger in Ecuador: Variability
and southern hemisphere
circulation links
Seminar presentation in Ecuador, 14th December of 2014
2nd year PhD Project Presentation
• Key confirmation results
• 2nd year progress review
• Future work planned
Future work planned
• Confirmation of anomalies composites using Victorian Government’s bushfire database.
Short term Long term
• Writing the thesis!!!
• Bias correction of reanalysis data prior 1972, and calculation of seasonal FFDI for Victoria and Ecuador.
• 20th century investigation of relationship between VSBI, seasonal FFDI, climate modes of variability and bushfire events.
• Projection of seasonal bushfire potential in the 21st
century using CIMIP5 models for Victoria and Ecuador.