Tracking Nordic Clean Energy Progress
Progress towards Nordic Carbon Neutrality
Bo Diczfalusy Senior Adviser, Nordic Energy Research
Staying on track for a low carbon energy future
CO2 emissions in NETP scenarios
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Historical Scenarios
Nordic
4DS
Global
4DS
CNS
2DS
Fig 1.1: Reduction pathways for energy-related CO2 by scenario (indexed to 1990)
The five Nordic countries have some of the most ambitious energy and climate policies in the world. Despite this, achieving the Paris Climate Agreement’s vision of maintaining the global temperature rise “well below two degrees” will require radical change.
Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (NETP) presents a detailed scenario-based analysis of how the Nordic countries can achieve a near carbon neutral energy system by 2050. The report is a Nordic edition of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) global Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (ETP).
This publication evaluates the progress being made towards Nordic Carbon Neutrality and compares progress with the Carbon Neutral Scenario (CNS) in NETP 2016. The NETP publication and this publication deal with energy-related CO2 emissions, which account for just under two-thirds of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Nordic region.
Carbon-Neutral Scenario establishes minimum requirements for mitigating CO2 emissions
“The aim of the Nordic countries is to be carbon neutral and to demonstrate leadership in the fight against global warming.”
These were the words of the Nordic prime ministers in their declaration at a summit in Helsinki on 25 January 2019 as part of
active Nordic climate cooperation under the auspices of the Nordic Council of Ministers.
Red – Not on track / Insufficient steps
Yellow – Greater effort is required but critical steps are being addressed
Green – On track / Sufficiently promising efforts and impact
BOOSTING BIOENERGY
ELECTRIFICATION OF HEAT
ENERGY EFFICIENT & SMART BUILDINGS
ENERGY STORAGE & CCS
TRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR
ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT
DECARBONISATION OF INDUSTRY
GREEN MOBILITY
THE BIG PICTURE
Tracking Nordic Clean Energy Progress
THE BIG PICTURE
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GDP
GDP (CNS)
Total PrimaryEnergyDemandTotal PrimaryEnergyDemand (CNS)CO2
CO2 (CNS)50%
70%
90%
110%
130%
150%
170%
190%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Current Progress
Higher GDP growth than expected, and lower emission growth. Emissions reductions have stalled recently.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
GW
h
Solar Wind Geothermal
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2005 2010 2015
GW
h
Wind power generation is almost haft-way to
the CNS 2030 target of 75 TWh
Geothermal is 1 TWhfrom CNS 2050 target of
TRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR
Nordic renewable electricity generation (excl. hydro)
Solar already close to CNS 2030 target
of 1 TWh
6 TWh
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2016 2007 2016 2007 2016 2007 2016 2007 2016
Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden
MtC
O2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007
2016
CNS2030
CO2 emissions (MtCO2) from power and district heatTRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR
25%
BOOSTING BIOENERGY
-1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000
2013
2050
Net electricity import
Biomass and waste
Wind, geothermal and solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
→
in primary energy
consumption
Bioenergy production is increasing and is expected to be the single largest energy carrier in 2050.
BOOSTING BIOENERGY
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011 2016
PJ
Other RE
Bio-ethanol/-ETBE
Bio-diesel
RE electricity
Over 100% increase in RE
48
105
Requirements for renewable fuels begin to bite in the Nordics.
Renewable consumption in the transport sector (PJ)
> 80%Biofuels
Requirements for renewable fuels begin to bite in the Nordics.
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011 2016
PJ
Other RE
Bio-ethanol/-ETBE
Bio-diesel
RE electricity
Over 100% increase in RE
48
105
> 80%Biofuels
In 2050 the CNS expects biofuels for transport to
reach 470 PJ
BOOSTING BIOENERGY
Securing sustainable production of biofuels is still a challenge.
Renewable consumption in the transport sector (PJ)
ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Electric Plug-in electric Fuel cell
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
3,5%
4,0%
4,5%
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Nordic statistics CNS
Light-duty vehicles are on track
Share of electric vehicles in light-duty vehicle stock (CNS) and “zoom in” on the actual Nordic share from 2010-2018 in relation to CNS targets
1%
4.1%
ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Norway Iceland Sweden Finland Denmark
2018
Over 100.000 electric vehicles were sold in 2018
72,600
28,800
2,600
4,700
5,600
Battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles share of new passenger vehicle sales. Piechart: Number of new passenger vehicle sales (BEV and PHEV) in 2018
DECARBONISATION OF INDUSTRY
Final energy consumption (PJ) in industry
Fig 7.3: Final energy consumption (PJ) in industry
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PJ
Fossil fuels Biomass Waste Derived heat Electricity
in final energy consumption in industry from 2007-2016
1495 PJ in 2007
1342 PJ in 2017
→
24%
→
In fossil fuels from 2007-2016
We need to cut the energy
intensity of Nordic buildings
by more than half.kWh/m2 in 2016
213
kWh/m2 in 2050
89
Average energy intensity in Nordic buildings
Powerhouse Brattørkaia( -4,9 kWh/m2), Norway. Photo: Ivar Kvaal
ENERGY EFFICIENT & SMART BUILDINGS
ENERGY STORAGE & CCS
24%
→
Hydropower is the main source for energy storage, but new tech is emerging like thermal storage.
ENERGY STORAGE & CCS
Carbon Capture and Storage in Industry
24%
→
Nordic industrial emissions in 2050
Total20 Mt CO2
Captured7 Mt CO2
Red – Not on track / Insufficient steps
Yellow – Greater effort is required but critical steps are being addressed
Green – On track / Sufficiently promising efforts and impact
BOOSTING BIOENERGY
ELECTRIFICATION OF HEAT
ENERGY EFFICIENT & SMART BUILDINGS
ENERGY STORAGE & CCS
TRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR
ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT
DECARBONISATION OF INDUSTRY
GREEN MOBILITY
THE BIG PICTURE
Tracking Nordic Clean Energy Progress
Tracking Nordic Clean Energy Progress
Progress towards Nordic Carbon Neutrality
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Bo Diczfalusy Senior Adviser, Nordic Energy Research