Project Level Traffic Forecast Feasibility Study B170791 · 2020. 2. 6. · 3 1 PROJECT START...

FEBRUARY 2020

PREPARED FOR:

PREPARED BY:

Final Report

Project Level Traffic Forecast Feasibility Study B170791

SR 1415 (Yadkin Road) Road Improvements, from Fort Bragg Access Control Point (Gate 4)

to US 401 (Skibo Road) Fayetteville, Cumberland County, North Carolina

WBS # 47355.1.3

February 3, 2020 MEMORANDUM TO: Janet A. Whetstone-Perez, PE Transportation Mobility and Safety Unit North Carolina Department of Transportation FROM: Claudio Figueroa, PE VHB Engineering NC, P.C. SUBJECT: Traffic Forecast for B170791: SR 1415 (Yadkin Road) Road Improvements, from

Fort Bragg Access Control Point (Gate 4) to US 401 (Skibo Road), Fayetteville, Cumberland County, WBS #47355.1.3

This forecast has been reviewed and approved by the NCDOT Transportation Planning Division as of February 3, 2020.

Please find attached the 2019/2045 Traffic Forecast for the project mentioned above. The NCDOT Transportation Mobility and Safety Unit is studying the Feasibility Study B170791, which includes road improvements along SR 1415 (Yadkin Road) from the Fort Bragg Access Control Point (Gate 4) to US 401 (Skibo Road), in Fayetteville, Cumberland County.

No previous forecast has been developed for this project. The following people involved in local land use and/or transportation planning were contacted for additional information relative to the development of this forecast:

• Joel Strickland, Cumberland County Planning & Inspections Department Acting Director and Fayetteville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (FAMPO) Director

• Dr. Gerald A. Newton, AICP, City of Fayetteville Development Services Director • Darius D. Sturdivant, NCDOT Division 6 Planning Engineer • Lee (Richie) Hines, Jr., NCDOT Division 6, District 2 Engineer • H.L. “Drew” Cox, NCDOT Division 6 Maintenance Engineer • Lee Jernigan, City of Fayetteville Traffic Engineer • David M. Nash, AICP, City of Fayetteville Senior Planner

The following scenarios are provided in this forecast:

1. Scenario 1 – 2019 Base Year No-Build Scenario 2. Scenario 2 – 2045 Design Year No-Build Scenario

For the purposes of this forecast, it is understood that the road improvements planned are primarily operational improvements that will not affect the capacity or substantially divert traffic. If the road improvements planned are updated in the future to include increasing capacity by adding lanes or other improvements that may cause a substantial diversion of traffic, then an updated Build scenario may be needed. If a Build scenario is needed, please contact the NCDOT Transportation Planning Division ([email protected]) to request a forecast supplement.

mailto:[email protected]

Ref: 38999.02 February 3, 2020 Page 2

Fiscal Constraint: Within an MPO, the design year forecasts assume the construction of projects as listed within the MPO’s Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP). This forecast is consistent with the current FAMPO 2045 MTP, adopted in May 2019.

Future Conditions and Development Activity: Relative growth and development are proposed in the study area between 2019 and 2045. Based on coordination with the City of Fayetteville and FAMPO staff, these developments are accurately reflected in the Fayetteville Area Metropolitan Organization’s Travel Demand Model (FAMPO TDMv2.1), which was used to develop the forecast.

Forecast Methodology: The 2019 Base Year No-Build traffic forecast was developed primarily from traffic counts taken for this forecast, as well as historic traffic counts and trends. All other scenarios were developed based on modeling results and existing traffic data, using FAMPO TDMv2.1, which was adopted in March 2019.

Due to the project proximity to the Fort Bragg military base, turning movement counts were collected from 5:00 AM to 9:00 PM to consider the shift changes in the military base. The effects of these shift changes in Fort Bragg are presented in the directionality of the peak hours, which caused the same directionality during both morning and afternoon peak hours.

Interpolation: To determine volumes during any intermediate years, straight-line interpolation may be used. AADT volumes may be extrapolated for up to two years immediately following 2045. If it is determined that any of these assumptions have become inconsistent with the project and surrounding area activity, a request should be made for updated projections at this location.

If you have any questions or VHB can be of further assistance, please feel free to contact me by telephone at 984-960-5106 or by email at [email protected].

cc: (via e-mail as PDF attachment)

Joel Strickland, Fayetteville Area MPO James Dunlop, Congestion Management Brenda Moore, PE, CPM Highway Design Branch Clark Morrison, Ph.D., PE, Pavement Management Darius D. Sturdivant, Division 6 Planning Engineer Behshad Norowzi, CPM, NCDOT TPD Planning Team Supervisor Keith G. Dixon, Transportation Planning Division NCDOT GIS Unit File Copy: B170791, Cumberland

18

2

BrunswickRoad

SR 1406(Fillyaw Road)

YorkRoad

Summer HillRoad

HorseshoeRoad (North)

3

1

P R O J E C T S T A R T

SouthwickDrive

211

4

203

20

194

8

193

84

168

9

171

2019 AVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFICNo-Build AlternativeSCENARIO 1 (SHEET 1 OF 3)

TIP B170791DIVISION 6COUNTY CumberlandLOCATION SR 1415 (Yadkin Road) from Fort Bragg

Gate 4 and US 401 (Skibo Road)PROJECT SR 1415 (Yadkin Road)

Road ImprovementsDATE 02.03.2020WBS 47355.1.3

AM AM peak hourPM PM peak hourD Peak hour directional split (%)

indicated direction of D(d, t) Duals, TTSTs (%)K Design hour factor (%)X Movement prohibited1- Less than 50 VPD

## No. of vehicles per day(VPD) in 100sExisting roadwayProposed roadway

55

29

3

6

not to scale

K(d,t)AMD K(d,t)

PMD

65(2,1)AM

765

(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

7

60(2,1)AM7

PM 9(2,1)65

55(3,1)AM7

PM 8(2,1)60

60(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

7

55(5,1)AM8

PM 9(5,1)55

12

2

221

14PM 9(2,1)55

M A T C H L I N EAA

4

1

SR 1415(Yadkin Road)


Airborne One Driveway1

1-

1 55(2,1)AM12

2

6Rent-A-WheelDriveway

1-

1-

1-

5 MilfordRoad

7

1

8

65(2,1)AM8

PM 9(2,1)60

60 (2,1)AM 7

SR 1406(Fillyaw Road) 1

1-

1

PM 12(2,1)55 5

3

3

65 (2,1)AM 9

55 (2,1)AM 7

55 (2,1)AM 12 60 (2,1)

AM 7

PM8 (2,1) 65

PM7 (2,1) 60

PM7 (3,1) 60

PM7 (2,1) 100

PM9

(2,1)65

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)65

187

28

12

HomesteadDrive

HorseshoeRoad (South)

SR 1408(Bonanza Drive)

SR 1437(Santa Fe Drive)

N. PlatteRoad

162

6

162

160

190

59

228

6

224

4

221

2019 AVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFICNo-Build Alternative



5

1

3

1

not to scale

K(d,t)AMD K(d,t)

PMD

60(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

7

60(4,1)AM7

55(3,1)AM7

PM 9(2,1)60

PM 8(2,1)60

60(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

7

187

M A T C H L I N EBB

11


M A T C H L I N EAA

10 214PM 8(2,1)55


10

49

25

69

3

3

BrookfieldDrive

55(2,1)AM7

PM 9(2,1)60 16

5


SCENARIO 1 (SHEET 2 OF 3)





Big Apple Restaurant & Sports Pub Driveway2

1

1 65(2,1)AM7

8

9 Kingdom Plaza Driveway1

1

1- 65(2,1)AM12

PM 7(2,1)55

Song's Barber Shop Driveways 1

1

1-55(2,1)AM7

7

12 Driveways1-PM 9(2,1)551-

1-

21

55 (2,1)AM 7

55 (2,1)AM 7 55 (2,1)

AM 7

55 (2,1)AM 7

100 (2,1)AM 7

PM11 (2,1) 60 PM7 (4,1) 60

PM7 (3,1) 65 PM7 (2,1) 65

PM9 (2,1) 60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

176








not to scale

K(d,t)AMD K(d,t)

PMD


McPherson Church Rd

M A T C H L I N EBB

P R O J E C T E N D

187

60(2,1)AM

7

PM9

(2,1)60

SR 3499(Lake Valley Drive) 63

6

57

PM 8(2,1)60

14 SR 3499(Lake Valley Drive)5

3

2 55(3,1)AM7

98

66US 401

(Skibo Road)485

55(3,2)AM7

PM 8(3,2)55

16 US 401(Skibo Road)388

47

20

PM 8(3,2)55

210

55(2,1)AM

7

PM9

(2,1)55

187

60(2,1)AM

7

PM9

(2,1)60

CimarronDrive6

3

3

13

151

60(2,1)AM

7

PM9

(2,1)60

137

60(2,1)AM

7

PM9

(2,1)60

Walmart Driveway55

24

30 55(2,1)AM7

15WalgreensDriveway 14

8

5

55 (2,1)AM 7

60 (2,1)AM 7

55 (2,1)AM 7

55(3,2)AM7

PM7 (2,1) 55

PM7 (3,1) 65

PM8 (2,1) 55 PM8 (2,1) 55

154

21

4

BrunswickRoad

SR 1406(Fillyaw Road)

YorkRoad

Summer HillRoad

HorseshoeRoad (North)

3

2

P R O J E C T S T A R T

SouthwickDrive

237

5

230

25

220

9

220

99

192

10

196








64

35

3

7

not to scale

K(d,t)AMD K(d,t)

PMD

65(2,1)AM

765

(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

7

60(2,1)AM7

PM 9(2,1)65

55(3,1)AM7

PM 8(2,1)60

60(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

7

55(5,1)AM8

PM 9(5,1)55

13

3

247

16PM 9(2,1)55

M A T C H L I N EAA

4

1



Airborne One Driveway1

1-

1 55(2,1)AM12

2

6Rent-A-WheelDriveway

1-

1-

1-

5 MilfordRoad

8

2

10

65(2,1)AM8

PM 9(2,1)60

60 (2,1)AM 7

SR 1406(Fillyaw Road) 1

1-

1

PM 12(2,1)55 5

4

3

65 (2,1)AM 9

55 (2,1)AM 7

55 (2,1)AM 12 60 (2,1)

AM 7

PM8 (2,1) 65

PM7 (2,1) 60

PM7 (3,1) 60

PM7 (2,1) 100

PM9

(2,1)65

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)65

213

33

16

HomesteadDrive

HorseshoeRoad (South)

SR 1408(Bonanza Drive)


N. PlatteRoad

178

6

178

175

213

70

254

7

251

5

247

2045 AVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFICNo-Build Alternative



5

2

4

1

not to scale

K(d,t)AMD K(d,t)

PMD

60(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

7

60(4,1)AM7

55(3,1)AM7

PM 9(2,1)60

PM 8(2,1)60

60(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

760

(2,1)AM

7

204

M A T C H L I N EBB

11


M A T C H L I N EAA

10 234PM 8(2,1)55


14

56

28

80

3

3

BrookfieldDrive

55(2,1)AM7

PM 9(2,1)60 19

7


SCENARIO 2 (SHEET 2 OF 3)


Big Apple Restaurant & Sports Pub Driveway2

1

1 65(2,1)AM7

8

9 Kingdom Plaza Driveway1

1

1- 65(2,1)AM12

PM 7(2,1)55

Song's Barber Shop Driveways 1

1

1-55(2,1)AM7

7

12 Driveways1-PM 9(2,1)551-

1-

26

55 (2,1)AM 7

55 (2,1)AM 7 55 (2,1)

AM 7

55 (2,1)AM 7

100 (2,1)AM 7

PM11 (2,1) 60 PM7 (4,1) 60

PM7 (3,1) 65 PM7 (2,1) 65

PM9 (2,1) 60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

PM9

(2,1)60

192








not to scale

K(d,t)AMD K(d,t)

PMD


McPherson Church Rd

M A T C H L I N EBB

P R O J E C T E N D

204

60(2,1)AM

7

PM9

(2,1)60

SR 3499(Lake Valley Drive) 70

8

62

PM 8(2,1)60

14 SR 3499(Lake Valley Drive)6

4

2 55(3,1)AM7

112

76US 401

(Skibo Road)552

55(3,2)AM7

PM 8(3,2)55

16 US 401(Skibo Road)441

54

23

PM 8(3,2)55

233

55(2,1)AM

7

PM9

(2,1)55

204

60(2,1)AM

7

PM9

(2,1)60

CimarronDrive6

3

3

13

166

60(2,1)AM

7

PM9

(2,1)60

152

60(2,1)AM

7

PM9

(2,1)60

Walmart Driveway59

26

32 55(2,1)AM7

15WalgreensDriveway 16

9

6

55 (2,1)AM 7

60 (2,1)AM 7

55 (2,1)AM 7

55(3,2)AM7

PM7 (2,1) 55

PM7 (3,1) 65

PM8 (2,1) 55 PM8 (2,1) 55

169




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Project Level Traffic Forecast Feasibility Study B170791 · 2020. 2. 6. · 3 1 PROJECT START...

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