Project Overview and Scenario Process

Prof. Malcolm Eames6 October 2011

Project Aims

• To develop the knowledge and capability to overcome the separation between the "what" and "how" of urban scale retrofitting in order promote a managed socio-technical transition in built environment and urban infrastructure.

Vision

• To deliver a 'step change' in current knowledge and capacity to underpin the transition to urban sustainability, by working with key stakeholders to illuminate challenging but realistic social & technological options and pathways for systemic retrofitting of two core UK city regions (Greater Manchester and Cardiff/SE Wales) by 2050

Step ChangeFrom… • Incremental & near

market technologies• Niche experiments • Piecemeal &

fragmented programmes

• Limited capacity for learning

To… • Prospective tech. and

disruptive innovation• Systems change• Integration across

scales • Top down & bottom up

learning

Objectives• Explore and advance both theoretical and practical understandings of processes

of systems innovation and transition in an urban context.

• Analyse through case studies, modelling and international comparison, the technical and social processes underpinning such transitions.

• Identify and characterise prospective disruptive technologies and systems innovations which will underpin a transition to sustainability in the built environment (over the period 2020-2030)

• Articulate and appraise regionally specific visions and prospective pathways for urban scale retrofitting of the built environment.

• To develop and test an integrated socio-technical support system that practically assists … improving effectiveness and efficiency of retrofitting processes.

What we intend to deliver • Improved societal understanding of long-term transitions

(energy, water & waste) for sustainable urban retrofitting

• Mobilise expectations around clearly articulated, pathways & scenarios for prospective disruptive technologies and systems innovations

• Integrated urban scale modelling and evaluation tools to support improved decision-making and implementation

• Practical knowledge exchange framework which cities can apply to drive forward systemic retrofitting

Work Package 1

Urban Transitions Analysis

Work Package 2

Urban ForesightLaboratory(2020-2050)

Work Package 3

Urban Options, Visualisation

and Pathways Analysis

Work Package 4

Synthesis, Comparison

& Knowledge Exchange

Urban Foresight Panel

ScenarioWorkshops

Produces set of

contextual ‘socio-technical’

scenarios for testing in WP3

Project Structure

Urban Retrofit Scenarios

An Outline Framework for Scenario Foresight and Appraisal

Foresight & Scenario Approaches

Descriptive

Forecasts use formal quantitative extrapolation and modelling to predict ‘likely’ futures from current trends.

Exploratory Scenarios explore possible futures. They emphasise drivers, and do not specify a predetermined desirable end state towards which storylines must progress.

Technical Scenarios explore possible future technological systems. They emphasise the technical feasibility and implications of different options, rather than exploring how different futures might unfold.

Normative

Visions are elaborations – usually narrative accounts - of a desirable/sustainable future. They describe a (more or less) plausible end state rather than the pathways through which that future might be achieved.

Backcasting studies start by defining a desirable and plausible future end point (or vision). They then investigate possible pathways to reach that point.

Socio-technical transition scenarios emphasis a multi level co-evolutionary understanding of the social and technological dimensions of the large scale systems changes.

Roadmaps provide a schematic description (time line) of a sequence of specific measures or targets designed to bring about a particular future.

Methodology

We will adopt a participatory backcasting approach in order to develop a realistic,

internally coherent and transparent set of socio-technical transition scenarios for

systemic urban retrofitting.

The Retrofit 2050 Scenarios Process

Step Focus Participants

Phase 1 October 2011 –

September 2012

1. Problem Framing & Structuring

Practices, drivers and expectations

Urban Foresight Panel of national experts

2. Visioning Radical & disruptive innovation across

scales and domains(Indicator development)

3. Pathway Analysis Transition dynamics(Indicator development)

Phase 2 October 2012 –

June 2013

4. Regional Implementation

Grounding and visualisation(Modelling)

Key regional stakeholders

Phase 3: June 2013 – September

2013

5. Evaluation & Appraisal

Sustainability and resilience under multiple

perspectives(Multi Criteria Analysis)

Wider sample of regional stakeholders &

societal interests

Urban Foresight Panel

Your role in the process:• Broaden the range of disciplinary, professional

& organisational knowledge• Contribute a high degree of creativity, critical

thinking and challenge• Help to ensure the relevance, usefulness and

usability of the outputs

Defining ‘Sustainable Urban Retrofit’

“…the directed alteration of the fabric, form or systems which comprise the built

environment in order to improve energy, water and waste efficiencies.”

Urbanisation is a complex socio-technical process

Retrofit

Impacts ofprices of fuelsEffects of

InfluenceFactors (IF)

Impacts ofpeerpressure

Impacts ofincentives

Impacts ofperceivedbenefits

neighbourhoodretrofit rates

Lowcarbon

buildings

NaturalmaterialsproductsProcessing

distributionNaturalmaterialsproducesgrow of natural

materials

SkilledAgriculture andOther Labour

unemploymentrate

hiring in AO

SkilledConstruction

Labour

hiring inconstructions

transition tolabour force

quitting fromconstruction

quitting fromA&O

Labour forcepool

total retiringUnemployed

Labour

reemployed

Populationpopulation change

sewagegeneration

Sewagesewage disposal

(SD)

demand for newSDC

Solid WasteCollectionCapacitySWCC

solid wastegeneratio SWG

fresh waterconsumptions

Sewage DisposalCapacity SDC

delay of SDCacquisition

AccumulatedLandfillIntake

SDCacquisition

SWCC lossSWCCacquisition

average life ofSWCC

landfill

Recycle and disposeto other regions

solid wastecollection

Available LandfillCapacity

Usage alternativetransports modes

(ATM)transfer rate to

ATM

Total energydemand

energy need forbuildings

energy need fortransportation

energy need forleisure and other

activities

CO2emissions

total vehicle kmtravelled

energyresources

stock

imports and localgeneration

energy exportsand consumption

Energy & CO2

Mobilities

Skilled labours

Water

Natural Materials

Existingbuilding

stock

Impacts ofFITs/RHIs

Impacts ofgreen deals

Impacts of otherincentives

Privatetransports

attractivess ofATM

pedestration andcycling routes

prices attractivenessof ATM

Availableland

resources occupyingland

Utilisedland

resources

demolition

demolationrates

processingcapacityprofitability for

farmers

new ATMusers

new privatetransports users

Total energyconsumption

urbanagriculture

Population

Waste

Land Uses

electrical vehcilesinstallations

birth ratedeath rate

land usespolicies

constructioncost

whole lifecosts labour

demand

<Population>

rain watercollectionsimpacts of

stormwater

soft landscaping andother SUDs methods

newhomesdemolition

rate

multi functionaluses of land

Apprenticeshipand Training

Capacity

demand for newhomes labour forces

increase

Retrofit as an emergent process…

Improvement

Innovation

Repair

Maintenance

Retrofit ‘Regimes’: a Socio-Technical Perspective

Technologies

Infrastructures

Skills & Training

User Practices

SharedExpectations

Culture & Heritage

Policies and Regulations

Institutions

Networks of

Actors

Buildings

Retrofit Regime1

Technologies

Infrastructures

Skills & Training

User Practices

Expectations

Culture & Heritage

Institutions

Policies & Regulation

Networks of Actors

Buildings

Retrofit Regime3

Technologies

Infrastructures

Skills & Training

User Practices

Expectations

Culture & Heritage

Institutions

Policies & Regulation

Networks of Actors

Buildings

Retrofit Regime2

Technologies

Infrastructures

Skills & Training

User Practices

Expectations

Culture & Heritage

Institutions

Policies & Regulation

Networks of Actors

Buildings

Retrofit Regime4

www.retrofit2050.org.uk