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Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural Sub- Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable Project Overview and Update May 2, 2010
Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable
Project Overview and UpdateMay 2, 2010
Attendees
Christoph Mueller, PIK Gerald (Jerry) Nelson, IFPRI
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MOTIVATION
Long-term changes in climate will disproportionately affect developing world
Effects of climate change vary across regions, farming and food systems, households, and individuals
Analysis must combine biophysical and socio-economic factors• Global• Regional• Local
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Rainfed Maize Yield Changes Are Diverse2050 climate relative to 2000 climate
NCAR GCM, A2 Scenario
Rainfed Maize Yield Changes Are Diverse2050 climate relative to 2000 climate
CSIRO GCM, A2 Scenario
IMPACT’s Food Production Units (281 FPUs)
Climate Change Makes Food Price Increases Greater
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Rice Wheat Maize Soybeans -
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2050 No climate change 2050 CSIRO NoCF 2050 NCAR NoCF
Dol
lars
Per
Met
ric T
on
Prices increase without climate change
Greater price increases with climate change
Climate Change Increases Childhood Malnutrition
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South
Asia
East A
sia an
d Pac
ific
Europe
and C
entra
l Asia
Latin
Ameri
ca an
d Cari
bbea
n
Middle
East a
nd N
orth A
frica
Sub S
ahara
n Afric
a -
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000 2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CC
Mill
ions
of C
hild
ren
Without climate change, child malnutrition falls except in Sub Saharan Africa With climate change, child
malnutrition increases everywhere
Adaptation Costs are over $7 billion per year
Required additional annual expenditure • Wetter NCAR scenario = US$7.1 billion • Drier CSIRO scenario = US$7.3 billion
Regional level• Sub-Saharan Africa - $3 billion (40% of the total), mainly for
rural roads• South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation efficiency • Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year,
research• East Asia and the Pacific - $1 billion per year, research and
irrigation efficiency
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Outputs, year 2 and 3
Strategies for adaptation policies in high level fora
Options for adaptation developed in member countries w/ natl. researchers and collaborators
Policy dialogue meetings in member countries to get insights on research in progress, identify communication channels to achieve maximum impact.
Identification of gaps in adaptation analysis and research needs identified in the policy dialogue meetings.
Selected outputs since last meeting
IFPRI Food Policy Report on costs of adaptation – included results for SSA
ZALF review of literature – published as IFPRI discussion paper
ZALF Tanzania household/farmer practice survey, presentations in May
Involvement in UNFCCC negotiations• Side event in Bonn, June 2009• ARDD 1 focused on climate change and agriculture in
Copenhagen• Side event in Bonn, June 2010• ARDD2 planed in Cancun, December 4, 2010
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Planned outputs
PIK – Paper on hotspots of change, in process ASARECA – review of NAPAs and PRSPs for
ASARECA member countries – forthcoming as IFPRI discussion paper
FANRPAN – review of NAPAs and PRSPs for FANRPAN member countries in progress
Vulnerability assessments – draft template designed (see Kenya template) and process to identify country authors underway
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Three ‘provocative’ theses
Our understanding of local climate change outcomes is bad
The best adaptation policies/programs today are • Good development policies that enhance widespread
economic growth and productivity improvements• Global information sharing about climate
responsiveness of today’s varieties • Identify climate-related research gaps
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