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Project Risk Management
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Project Risk Management Processes
Risk Management Planning : deciding how to approach and plan the risk management activities for a project
Risk Identification : determining which risks might effect the project and documenting their characteristics
Qualitative Risk Analysis : performing a qualitative analysis of risks and condition to prioritize their effect for project objectives
Quantitative Risk Analysis : measuring the probability and consequences of risks and estimating their implications for project objectives
Risk Response Planning : developing procedures and techniques to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to the project objectives
Risk Monitoring and Control : monitoring residual risks, identifying new risks, executing risk reduction plans, and evaluating their effectiveness throughout the project life cylce.
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Project Risk Management
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
4
Project Risk Management
Risk management must be done during the whole life of the project
All risks have a probability > 0 and < 100% A risk event that has a probability = 100% is not
a risk
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Risk Tolerance
Risks that may not be considered as important to the project are :
Risks that have very high probabilities and very low impacts, and
Risks that have very low probabilities and very high impacts
Risks we need to worry about are those that have a reasonably high probability and high impact
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Steps in risk management Practices
R isk M anagem ent
R isk A ssessm ent
R isk C ontro l
R isk Identifica tion
R isk A na lysis
R isk E xposure
R isk R eduction
C ontingency P lann ing
R isk M onito ring
C ontinuous R eassessm ent
R isk P rio ritiza tion
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Idetifikasi Resiko
Penilaian Resiko
Menyusun Respons
Mengendalikan Respons Resiko
Analisis Proyek untuk mengidentifikasi sumber resiko
Menilai resiko dalam hal : - Tingkat keparahan dampak - Kemungkinan terjadi - Kemampuannya untuk dapat di kontrol
Mengembangkan strategi untuk mengurangi kerusakan yang mungkin terjadiMenyusun rencana kontingensi
Implementasi strategi resikoMemonitor dan menyesuaikan rencana untuk resiko baruManajemen perubahan
Resiko diketahui
Penilaian resiko
Rencana Manajemen Resiko
Resiko baru
Resiko baru
Resiko baru
PR
OS
ES
MA
NA
JEM
EN
RE
SIK
O
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Risk Assessment & Control
Risk Assessmento Identification – what are the risks? Make a list!
(Or borrow one for ideas)o Analysis – assess risk likelihood and impact; find possible
alternativeso Prioritization – which risks to focus on? Sort risks by impact
Risk Controlo Management planning – mitigation planning, ensure consistency
among planso Resolution – actively manage and resolve each risk when it
occurso Monitoring – track progress toward risk resolution; and identify
new risks
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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How to Identify Risks
Start with a typical list of software risks Review development plan
Critical Paths Critical Staff Members Critical Vendor Deliveries Critical Milestones
Review Requirements Review Technical Design Review Past Projects
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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How to Identify Risks (Continued)
Conduct Risk Brainstorming Sessions with Staff, Users, Vendors, Customers, and Management Try to assess the direction of thinking by third parties as
they may give an indication of future requirements, expectations, or vendor changes.
If your dependent on vendors, try to understand their business situation.
Get as much input as possible!
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Risks Identification Techniques
Documentation reviewsBrainstormingDelphi techniqueNominal group techniqueCrawford slipExpert interviewsAnalogy
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Documentation review
Reviewing lessons learned and risk management plans from previous projects
Reviewing WBS, contract obligations, project baseline for scope, schedule and budget, resource avaibilities, staffing plans, suppliers
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Brainstorming
Meeting is called to make a comprehensive list of risks
participants : 10 to 15 The meeting < 2 hours Participants can name risks No discussion Another participants give new ideas for
possible risks
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Delphi Technique
Similar to brainstorming but the participants do not know one another (anonymous)
useful if the participants are some distance away (particularly using email)
Process : Facilitator distributes quesionnaire to the
participants to submit risk ideas Facilitator catagorize and clarify the responses,
then circulate to the participant for comments or addition
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Nominal Group Technique
The facilitator instructs each of the participants to privately and silently list his or her idea on a piece of paper
The facilitator takes each piece of paper and lists the ideas on a flip chart or blackboard, then make discussion
Now ranks the ideas in order of importance, again in secret
This technique is faster and require less effort of the facilitator than Delphi Tech.
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Crawford Slip
It does not require as strong a facilitator as the other techniques
It produces ideas very quickly < 1/2 hour Process :
The facilitator asks question The participants write down the answer After one minute, the facilitator ask the same
question and the participants have to make different answer
This is repeated 10 times
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Analysis, Exposure, & Prioritization
For Each Risk: Determine Probability of Occurrence
What is the likelyhood of occurrence? Determine Impact
What is the impact if it occurres? Determine Exposure
What will we lose if the risk occurs?
For All Risks: Prioritize
Where should we put our limited resources?
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Analysis, Exposure, Prioritization: How?
Various Techniques Available But Key is Experience Individual Organizational
Don’t Rely on Just Yourself - Get lots of Inputs
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Risk Assessment: A Simple Classification & Tracking Method
Probability of Occurrence vs Impact 1 to 5 Scale
Priorities Red - High Yellow - Med Green - Low
Review/Present Chart Periodically
R isk #1
R isk #4
R isk #2R isk #3
R isk #5
Probability o f O ccurrance
Imp
act
H igher P robab ilityLow er P robab ility
Hig
her
Impa
ctLo
wer
Impa
ct
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Risk Assessment: Probability Methods
Can we quantitize the risk? For Each Risk:
For Each Possible Action: Estimate Probability of an Given Outcome P(O) Estimate $ Loss of an Given Outcome L(O) Multiply the P(O) by L(O) to give $ exposure for the unwanted
outcome Sum all $ exposures for each Possible Action Compare the $ exposures Calculate Risk Leverage
(Risk Exposure Before Reduction - Risk Exposure After Reduction) / (Cost of Risk Reduction)
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Example Risk Assessment Using Probability Method
DoRegression
Testing?
NoDon't Find Critical Fault
P(O) = 0.55
Find Critical FaultP(O) = 0.25
No Critical FaultP(O) = 0.20
L(O) = $0.5M
L(O) = $30M
L(O) = $0.5M
$0.125M
$16.50M
$0.10M
$16.75M
Don't Find Critical FaultP(O) = 0.05
Find Critical FaultP(O) = 0.75
No Critical FaultP(O) = 0.20
L(O) = $0.5M
L(O) = $30M
L(O) = $0.5M
$0.375M
$1.5M
$0.10M
$1.975MYes
RISKEXPOSURE COMBINED
RISKEXPOSURE
RISK LEVERAGE -> $14.775M
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Risk Assessment Matrix
Systemfreezing
Low High High Startup
Userbacklash
High Medium MediumPost
installation
Hadwaremalfunctioning
Medium High High Installation
Risk eventChance-
LMHSeverity-
LMH
Detectiondifficulty-
LMH When
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Top 10 Risks
Personnel Shortfalls Staffing with Top Talent Job Matching Team Building Morale Building Cross-Training Pre-scheduling Key People
Software Risk Management: Principles and Practices, B.W. Boehm, IEEE Software, Jan., 1991, pg. 32-41
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Unrealistic Schedules and Budgets and/or Underestimating Problem Complexity Detailed multisource cost and schedule estimation Design to Cost Incremental Development Software Reuse Requirements Scrubbing
Top 10 Risks
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Developing the Wrong Software Functions Domain Analysis
(Organizational Analysis/Mission Analysis) Operational Concept Formulation User Surveys Prototyping Early User Manuals
Top 10 Risks
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Developing the Wrong User Interface Prototyping Scenerios Task Analysis
Gold Plating Requirements Scrubbing Prototyping Cost-Benefit Analysis Design to Cost
Top 10 Risks
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Continuing Stream of Requirements High Change Threshold Information Hiding Incremental Development
(defer changes to later increments)
Top 10 Risks
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Shortfalls in Externally Performed Tasks Reference Checking Pre-award Audits Award-fee Contracts Competitive design or prototyping Team Building
Top 10 Risks
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Shortfalls in Externally Furnished Components Benchmarking Inspections Reference Checking Compatability Analysis Examples:
Compilers Development Environments Target Hardware
Top 10 Risks
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Real-Time Performance Shortfalls Simulation Benchmarking Modeling Prototyping Instrumentation Tuning Performance Parameter Allocations
Top 10 Risks
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Straining Computer Science Capabilities or Introduction of New Technology to an Organization Technical Analysis Cost-Benefit Analysis Prototyping Reference Checking Staff Training Example:
Use of a new language, tool, or method
Top 10 Risks
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Risk Control
Risk Reduction Contingency Planning Monitoring
Risks ResponsePlanning
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Risk Reduction
Avoiding Risk : Avoid the risk completely Modifying project requirements
Transferring the Risk : Move the impact of the risk to some other party, sharing risk By allocation to other systems, Buying Insurance to
cover financial loses, Subcontracting Mitigating the Risk : reduce the probability or impact of
the risk adding additional tests, hiring duplicate suppliers,
adding more expert personnel, designing prototypes performance bond, guarantees
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Contingency Planning
Some risks cannot be reduced Plan for risk occurrence Why?
Reduces “Crisis” atmosphere Reduces chance of mistakes Reduces time to correct
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Perencanaan Kontingensi
Rencana Kontingensi adalah sebuah rencana alternatif yang akan digunakan jika suatu peristiwa resiko yang diperkirakan belum menjadi kenyataan.
Mencegah penundaan keputusan, kepanikan, dan pengambilan keputusan di bawah tekanan.
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Matriks Respons Resiko
Resiko Kemungkinan Kontingensi Pemicu Tanggung Jwb
Antar muka Mengurangi Work around smp bantuan datang
Tdk diselesaikan dlm 24 jam
---
Syst. freezing Mengurangi Instal ulang OS
Frozen setelah 1 jam
Emmy
Keluhan user Mengurangi Meningkatkan dukungan staf
Panggilan dari top manajemen
Eddie
Malfungsi alat Dipindahkan Memesan merk lain
Penggantian tdk bekerja
Jim
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Monitoring
Periodic Review of Risk Status Changes in Probabilities or Impacts Changes in Avoidance/Mitigation/Contingency Plans
Periodic Review of Project to Identify New Risks Implementation of Risk Avoidance or Mitigation
Plans Keep Management and Customers Informed!!!
Frequent Risk Reviews
Kartika Chandra Hotel Suite 611 Jakarta Ph. 5264089 Fx. 5264088 Email: [email protected] Http://www.mylearnit.com
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Responses to Risk Matrix
Risk eventAccept, reduce,share, transfer
Contingencyplan Trigger
Systemfreezing
Reduce Reinstall OSStill frozenafter 1 hour
Userbacklash
ReduceIncrease staff
supportCall from topmanagement
Hadwaremalfunctioning
TransferOrder different
brandReplacementdoesn't work