Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Project Update/Overview
Understanding 2011 Grampians Natural Disaster, addressing risk and resilience
Research TeamFederation University Australia
22 January 2014
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Project Progress:
• Data collection – completed (surveys; interviews)• Data analysis; report writing• Draft report + literature review chapters
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Project Progress (continued):
•Honours project: - Overview of findings from James Cameron’s thesis
“LANDSLIDE MAPPING & PROCESSES IN THE GRAMPIANS, VICTORIA”
70% of landslides initiated in 4 rock units25% of landslides initiated in the Silverband Formation90% of landslides on eastern slopes >22°Majority > 33° (angle of repose?)
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 570
10
20
30
40
50
60
Failure Point Frequency Distribution For Slope - Surface Geology Other
G396Skms2SkrkSksgY-FSkmmSkraSkmwSkms1Sks
Slope Angle - Increments 3°
Freq
uncy
- To
tal 2
74
Serra Sandstone & Glen Hills Sandstone can fail at low rainfall
More rock units fail in rainfall >220mm
Even ‘strong’ rocks fail when rainfall >250mm
150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 2500
20406080
100120140160
Failure Point Frequency Distribution For Rainfall - Surface Geology Other
G396Skms2SkrkSksgY-FSkmmSkraSkmwSkms1Sks
Rainfall (mm)
Freq
uenc
y - T
otal
274
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
GNDR WebsiteUpdates to the website:• Interactive landslide maps;• Knowledge management–resource ‘centre’.
www.gndr.org.au
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
GNDR Website updates• GNDR Document library
• Access to publically available documents (reports; journal articles; policies. Also links to useful websites; YouTube clips);
• Various resources: Local government, state & national papers and documents;
• Search option; search by category for advanced use;• Additional resources can be continue to be added.
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Overview of Findings
• Interviews and Surveys:
Preparedness and the emergency Response:‘this was an event like no other’;‘we never thought about a landslide in Halls Gap’
Flooding and landslides were wholly unexpected and therefore difficult to prepare for and respond to.
Individual and resident(n = 20)
Businesses/organisations (n = 17)
* Estimate of preparedness prior to the Grampians Natural Disaster: resident, business, community
On BCO during the event(n = 17)
On BCO during recovery(n = 17)
* Financial impact on businesses and community organisations (BCO)
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
What worked well?
Catalysts for effective preparation and response:
Staff from emergency and recovery services organisations identified the following catalysts:• Past Experience and local knowledge• Communication and coordination• Valuable community contacts and community ‘Hubs’
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Community perceptions: Preparation and response of emergency and recovery services:• Varied perceptions – largely positive;• Written comments provide more detail: particular
services provided good information, coordinated support and overall assistance;
• Some frustration about the length of time to rebuild infrastructure; warnings kept tourists away.
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Challenges in preparing and responding to this event:
Perceptions from the emergency and recovery services organisations:
• Some blurring of agency roles• Flood warning systems• Miscommunication/ Poor communication• Complexities of the community response: expectation
versus reality• Workforce gaps
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Social impacts: Emergency and recovery services organisations
• Pressures of providing response and recovery for this disaster (going above and beyond the call of duty);
• Fatigue; potential for worker ‘burn out’ (long work hours);• Dramatic shifts between roles for some workers in
response to the emergency.
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Economic impacts: Emergency and recovery services organisations
• Concerns for short-term tourism reductions to businesses at the time when recovery programs were being conducted by various agencies
• Very limited ability to recognise benefits that can be gained from the event via short-term recovery activity and longer-term building legacy opportunities
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
The main social and economic impacts of the Grampians natural disaster in 2011.
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Social impacts - Community Reflections:
Individuals/Residents:50% = reported ‘little or no impact’ following natural
disaster.20% = reported ‘high or very high impact’ from the
floods and/or landslides (Reason: property damage, including loss of land, fencing and outbuildings, along with ‘stored items’).
Other impacts: Travel in region (routes, times, distance)
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Social impacts on community continued…
• Minimal injuries; no loss of life;• (Some) perceived threats: family and personal safety; other threats -
damage to property and possessions;• Coping: Health and wellbeing indicators –largely ‘un-impacted’ BUT
some reports of stress and anxiety.• Support during this event was received by family, friends, community:
‘…with the help of our friends in the community, we coped satisfactorily’;
‘We saw how communities rally round’.
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Economic impactsCosts on emergency agencies
• Total expenditure of approximately $140M • Plus operating budgets stretched to place more
resources in the Grampians• Intangibles costs:
• management stress due to ad hoc governance,• staff ‘burn out’ from long hours work• agency officials dealing with legal obligations like insurance
and safety.
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Economic impacts (continued…)Costs on individuals and residents
• Minimal to moderate financial costs incurred• Indication that ‘employment opportunities were
created’ during the recovery• Intangible cost that frustrated residents was
insurance covering private property (to the extent that local councils assumed responsibility)
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Economic impacts (continued…)Costs on business and community organisations
• majority of businesses and community organisations negative or very negative financially impacted: loss of income through reduced tourist activities
• loss of earnings/no earnings, none or few ‘sales’, and loss of normal trading.
• However, all businesses reported no negative income issues ‘now’, which indicate resilience in recovery to prior status
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Economic impacts (continued…)Costs on business and community organisations
• Intangible costs were reported by businesses• Bureaucracy• Confined movement• Anxiety-related health issues
Indication of some non-market resilience problems
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Economic impacts (continued…)Recovery phase outcomes
• Approx $140M construction work produced jobs and skill enhancement not available prior to the event
• Output benefits from this work were modelled to multiply out to $304M, far outweighing the tourism losses calculated by ten times, spread widely
• Only a small amount of this assisted tourism sector• Only short-term jobs and output
Enabled the region to have some output gains immediately after the event that added to resilience.
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Economic impacts (continued…)Recovery phase outcomes
• Very little evidence of any legacy from this emergency being recognised, honoured and commemorated (see Parks Victoria website…as if it did not happen)
• Particular type of tourism opportunity that has not been taken advantage: e.g. ANZAC commemorations
• Shows lack of dynamic resilience
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Environmental Impacts• Direct and indirect environmental
impacts from the landslides to the natural environment;
• Community passionate about their environment: Changes observed to the environment (altered physical terrain, changes to flora). ‘Stress’ caused by the damage to environment (and loss of income);
• Positives: New Park infrastructure. Pavement and culvert damage, Silverband Rd (source VicRoads)
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Recommendations• Recommendations - based on the findings of this
research;• Consolidate and build on the large amount of work
(reports and planning documents) already undertaken since this event by key agencies and organisations;
• Consideration of current and future capacity to further developing community resilience.
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Recommendations• Agencies involved in areas of potential landslide need to be
very aware, informative and inclusive in their dealings with the local community (both residents and business) - need for stronger public-private partnership between public agencies and private businesses and residents• build inclusiveness prior to any disaster by providing
better information for more effective complexity modelling• allow community and businesses to be involved more in
relief and recovery during the disaster and its aftermath
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Recommendations• Strong post-emergency ‘legacy’ opportunity created
through information on websites and other media outlets• recognise the strong relief efforts during the disaster• even more, recognise the vastly improved and more
extensive infrastructure through the Park for residents, tourists and professionals who value ecological and economic resilience
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Recommendations• Diversify from existing businesses and community
activities by broadening what tourism represents in the region and to even bringing in different business activity such as knowledge-based industries that value the ecological environment (e.g. geospatial mapping).
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Recommendations• Measure intangible costs and risk assessments in a
coherent approach accepted by all stakeholders e.g. governmental arrangements and in insurance claims (financial stress stem from lack of appreciation of landslides as disasters that have cumulative effects)
• Risk assessment and resilience building officer should be employed across the major stakeholders to co-ordinate such assessments and risk preparedness
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
The factors identified that increase preparedness and response to natural disaster by the community and emergency and recovery services.
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
Where to from here?
• Draft Report: Late January 2014;
• Feedback on draft report: mid February 2014
• Report finalisation: Late February 2014
Centre for eCommerce and Communications
More InformationDr Helen Thompson, Director, CeCCT: 03 5327 9418E: [email protected]
Alison OllerenshawT: 03 5327 6201E: [email protected]
Project website: www.gndr.org.au
