Projected Climate Impacts and Adaptation Strategies
for Wisconsin’s Urban Areas
UWM – School of Freshwater Sciences
All Things WaterSeptember 14, 2010
David S. Liebl UW-Cooperative Extension,
andUW-Engineering Professional
Development
DNR
Photo: WDNR
Overview
• Wisconsin’s Changing climate
• Expected Impacts
• How we can adapt
Source: IPCC 2007
Recent Warming of the Atmosphere
Predicting Climate Change
What General Circulation Models (GCMs) tell us
Temperature: Temperature: Warms by 2-6Warms by 2-6C (3-10C (3-10F) F)
by end of centuryby end of century
Precipitation: Precipitation: Less certain and Less certain and
seasonally dependentseasonally dependentSteve Vavrus, CCR
Mitigation:Governor’s Task Force on Global Warming addressed ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Acting on Climate Changein Wisconsin
Adaptation:Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) addresses ways to adapt to consequences of climate change
Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI)
Evaluate potential effects on industry, agriculture, tourism, and other human activities.
Develop and recommend adaptation strategies.
Mission:Assess and anticipate climate change impacts on specific Wisconsin natural resources, ecosystems and regions.
WICCI was created by a partnership ofthe UW-Madison Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies
and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources.
www.wicci.wisc.edu
1930 2008WI Cooperative Weather Stations
We’ve been measuring temperature and rainfall in Wisconsin since 1870
Understanding our changing climate
State average 1.5°F warmer
Change in Annual Average Temperature from 1950 to 2006
(from Serbin and Kucharik 2009)
Change in the frequency of <0°F nights per year
from 1950 to 2006
Change in the frequency of ≥90°F days per year
from 1950 to 2006
Decline in extremely cold winter nights, especially in
northwest Wisconsin
Very little change in hot summer days
Extreme Temperature Trends
(from Serbin and Kucharik 2009)
Increase of up to 4 weeks
Change in the Length of the Growing SeasonIn Days from 1950 to 2006
(from Serbin and Kucharik 2009)
Statewide 15% increase
(but highly variable)
Change in Annual Average Precipitation (inches) from 1950 to 2006
(from Serbin and Kucharik 2009)
Potter, et al.
No reliable data
Potter, et al.
Earlier arrival of spring in Wisconsin
Bird migration Vegetation
Geese Arrival: 29 days
Baptista first bloom: 18 days
Cardinal first song: 22 days
Butterfly weed first bloom: 18 days
Robin arrival: 9 days
Marsh milkweed first bloom: 13 days
Source: Bradley et al., 1999
55 ecological indicators of spring occurred (on average)1.2 days earlier per decade from 1936 to 1998.
So…we live in a changing climate
What will the future bring?
Using Climate Models to Understand the Future
IPCC 2007
General Circulation Models (GCMs)simulate the effects of incoming and outgoing thermal radiation on global climate, and include:
AtmosphereCloudsOceansTopographyRainfallEtc.
Downscaling: Focus global projections to a scale relevant to climate impacts in Wisconsin
GCM grid Downscaled (8x8 km) grid
WCCI Climate Modeling• Used 14 Global Climate Models (GCM’s) from IPCC 2007 assessment
• Verified using historical Wisconsin weather station data
• Provides a statistical range of probable climate change
Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison
Wisconsin temperatureand precipitation for
14 GCMs for 1980-1999
Black line = Observed temperature and precipitation
Dave Lorenz
Downscaled GCMsvs.
Historic data
Predicted Annual Temperature Change
Wisconsin projected to warm by4 – 9 °F by mid-21st Century
Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature (°F) from 1980 to 2055
Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison
Probability distribution of14 GCM Projections
90% chance of exceeding this temperature
10% chance of exceeding this temperature
50% probability temperature (plotted on maps)
Projected Change in Seasonal Temperatures1980 to 2055 (°F)
Win
ter
Fall
Sum
mer
Sprin
g
Warming is most pronounced in winter
Projected change in the frequency of ≥90°F days per year
from 1980 to 2055
Projected change in the frequency of <0°F nights per year from 1980 to 2055
Projected Temperature Extremes
Fewer extremely cold winter nights More hot summer days
Projected Change in Precipitation from 1980 to 2055
Change in Annual Average (inches) Probability Distributions of 14 Climate Model Projections by Month
Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison
Models predict winter and early spring will be wetter
Models uncertain about amount of summer rainfall
2.42 inches5.6 days/yr1.0 days/yr0.2 days/yr
Steve Vavrus
Increase in Intense Precipitation
Increasing in frequency Moderate increase in intensity
Heaviest rainfall events (>5” in 24 hours) - Not predicted to increase substantially in number or intensity
Potter, et al.
While we cannot predict the future, we can estimate the risk (probability) from changing climate…
Understanding the risk and potential consequences supports good decision-making.
David Lorenz, CCR
Predicted changes in monthly temperature and precipitation to 2090
A word about uncertainty
• Confident in a rise in nighttime and winter temperatures
• Expect a significant increase in rain during winter
• Moderate increase in frequency and intensity of rainfall
Summary of Predicted Climate
What does this mean for Wisconsin Communities?
WICCI Human Health Working Group
= More Heat Waves
Average temperatures increasing 4-9°F by 2050
Warmer summers
= Reduced Air Quality
Projected increases in ozone in Chicago (Source: Holloway et al. 2008)
High Water ImpactsJune 1-15, 2008
38 River gauges broke records 810 Square miles of land flooded 161 Communities overflowed 90 million gallons raw sewage2,500 Drinking water wells tested - 28% contaminated
$34M in damage claims paid Source: FEMA, WEM
Urban Flooding
Flooding of streets, homes and businesses may become more frequent as rainfall patterns change.
Critical infrastructure is also at risk from high water events, e.g. City of Reedsburg POTW required $800K in repairs.
Photo: WDNR
Photo: Robert Mckean / Zuma Press
Upland runoff and sanitary sewer overflows
- Drinking water contamination
- Beach closures
- Wetland and aquatic habitat damage
Changing lake levels
“The general scientific consensus is that water levels of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior will decline on average..
...while continuing to exhibit large inter-decadal variation, as in the past 100 years.”
- WICCI Coastal Communities Working Group
Lake Superior
Lake Michigan
Photos: D. Mickelson
Coastal Erosion
Warmer and wetter winters =
- Increased infiltration;
- More freeze/thaw cycles;
- Increasing coastal erosion;
- Bluff collapse and landslides.
Photo: WDNR
How will Wisconsin adapt to climate change?
Heat waves Low lake levels
Adapting to Climate Change
Humans have always adapted to climate.
But predicted changes lead us into unknown territory.
WICCI and Adaptation
Mitigation is the idea that we can avoid, prevent or minimize undesirable things happening in the future.
Adaptation is the idea that changes are occurring or will occur, and we can manage the impacts of those changes.
WICCI recommends a risk management approachClimate presents hazards of varying severity and likelihood.
Encourage no-regrets strategies - Clear present benefit- Building future capacity- Don’t gamble on uncertainty - Flexibility to respond to new information
Successful Adaptation Strategies
– Update our design process
– Identify our vulnerabilities
– Long-range planning
– Education and research
– Better information
The records used may actually reflect a drier period (1938-1958).
0
1
2
3
4
5
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Largest Daily RainfallMadison, WI
Rainfall(inches)
Year
0
2 104
4 104
6 104
8 104
1 105
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Mississippi River at Clinton
Dis
char
ge(c
fs)
Year
We are designing for a historic climate.
Our designs are based on experience (i.e. history)
Heavy RainfallBetween 1950 and 2007 more than 135 rainfall events greater than 5" were recorded across the state.
Liebl and Schuster
Heavy rainfall can happen anywhere, now and in the future.
Photo: DNR
Vulnerability Analysis“Build upon the experiences of communities that have experienced recent extreme rainfalls to guide a state-wide evaluation of vulnerabilities…..” - WICCI Stormwater Working Group
Consider: – Floodplains and surface flooding– Areas of groundwater flooding– At-risk road-crossings– Stormwater BMPs– Sanitary sewer inflow and infiltration– Emergency response capacity– Wells and septic systems– Hazardous materials storage
Photo: Joe Koshollek, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Photo: City of Antigo
Promote long-range planning
- Planning for impacts 25 or 50 years out is challenging
- Adaptation to low-risk, high-cost events requires political support
- Use simulations to understand high water impacts
- The next generation of planners needs to be trained today
Education and Research
- Periodically reevaluate and revise climate and hydrologic design models and criteria.
- Develop tools to distinguish the hydrologic effects of human activities from climate change.
- Evaluate and improve strategies for managing high water.
- Establish curriculum to build professional capacity among water resource managers.
Better Information is Needed
- Real time stream-flow data
- Robust groundwater monitoring
- Fine scale rainfall data
- Detailed understanding of sub-watershed characteristics
- Updated estimates of flood profiles
Adaptation Strategies for MilwaukeeVulnerability Adaptation Options
Stormwater, Flooding
Conduct public education on water usage, rain barrels, and rain gardens.
Expand capacity of sewers and/or pursue alternative operational procedures for POTW.
Apply best management practices; stormwater retention, permeable pavement, and buffer strips.
Air Quality Increase tree canopy. Increase transportation alternatives.
Increase use of co-generation for power production. Public Health Improve warning system for extreme weather events
and air quality advisories. Conduct public education on climate related health
threats to urban areas. Built Environment Improve energy efficiency of buildings and homes.
Apply green infrastructure; green roofs and high albedo surfaces.
Ensure buildings, roads, and bridges can withstand extreme weather events.
- WICCI Milwaukee Working Group
Assistance to communities
Extension outreach to provide local decision-makers with climate adaptation capacity.
Identify areas and infrastructure in the community that are vulnerable to large storm events. - Economy - Environment
- Infrastructure - Land use
Funded by NOAA through Wisconsin Sea Grant, with UW-Extension and UW-Madison College of Engineering
WICCI Take-home Messages
Our climate has and will continue to change.
Wisconsin’s urban communities are vulnerable.
We have adapted, and can continue to adapt:– Update our design process
– Identify our high water vulnerabilities
– Long-range planning
– Education and research
– Better information
Synthesis of climate impact assessments by WICCI Working Groups.
Initial recommendations on adaptation strategies for decision-makers.
www.wicci.wisc.edu
