Projecting Student Enrollment MoAsbo Spring Conference, 2001 Copies of all...

Projecting Student EnrollmentProjecting Student Enrollment

MoAsboSpring Conference, 2001

Copies of all handouts/worksheets/presentation also found at Park Hill’s Web Site http://www.parkhill.k12.mo.us/moasbo

MoAsbo Spring Conference, 2001

Introductions & Agenda

Introduction– Presenter

Paul Kelly, Director Of Instructional TechnologyPark Hill School District, Kansas City, Missouri

– [email protected]– 816/741-1521

– Park Hill School District 9000 Students 13 Schools (+1 in construction)

mailto:[email protected]

MoAsbo Spring Conference, 2001

Introductions & Agenda

Agenda For PresentationAgenda For Presentation– Utility of Accurate Enrollment Projections

Why do School Districts Need to Project School Enrollment?

– Data needed for Enrollment Projecting Defining “Enrollment” Historical Enrollment Data County Population Data & Projections County/City Building Permit (Housing Starts) Reports Projection Methods

– Building the Report– Resources

UTILITY OF ACCURATE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Why Do Schools Need to Project School Enrollment?

Budgeting For Future Years Project Staffing Needs Anticipating Building Needs Benefits of “Demographic Profile

Report”

DATA NEEDED FOR ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Getting Organized

Define Enrollment

Collect Current Data

Collect Historical Data

Decide on Projection Methodologies

Analyze Data

Build Report

DEFINING ENROLLMENT

What is Enrollment?

Enrollment (8858)*– Enrollment is a head count of all students registered for district programs.– Based upon enrollment on 4th Wednesday of September and January

Membership (8868)*– Includes all enrolled pupils plus students participating in external programs funded by the District

ADA (Average Daily Attendance) (8076)*– Average number of students who attended school on any given day during the school year

Other– FTE (Full Time Equivalent) (8544)*– Eligible Pupil

* PHSD 1999-200 Figures

COLLECTING DATA

Data Needed For Accurate Projections

Current & Historical Enrollment Data

Current & Historical County Population Statistics

Current & Historical Housing Data

Current & Historical Enrollment Current & Historical Enrollment DataData

Elementary Schools

Grade ChinnEnglish Landing Graden Line Creek

Prairie Point Renner Southeast

Union Chapel

DaySchool TOTAL

KN-FULL 0 62 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 63KN-AM 40 3 42 46 34 38 30 56 1 290KN-PM 39 0 38 45 43 37 17 37 0 256

KN-TOTAL 79 65 80 91 77 76 47 93 1 6091 70 75 102 87 86 87 63 97 2 6692 90 76 75 87 92 95 72 106 0 6933 83 75 89 92 107 99 61 101 1 7084 93 70 91 102 98 98 75 108 2 7375 82 85 94 82 99 101 67 88 0 698

TOTAL 497 446 531 541 559 556 385 593 6 4114

Middle Schools High School

Day Park Hill Park Hill DayGrade Congress Lakeview Plaza School TOTAL Grade High School South School TOTAL

6 227 259 185 3 674 9 388 361 9 7587 254 270 241 5 770 10 353 362 9 7248 248 227 182 4 661 11 365 374 9 748

TOTAL 729 756 608 12 2105 12 276 277 2 555

TOTAL 1382 1374 29 2785

Day School

PARK HILL Total (included

GRADE DAY SCHOOLin the above school District TotalK-12 47 numbers)

9004

Enrollment By Park Hill SchoolOfficial Count Day - September 2000

PAGE 9 of MO-ASBO HANDOUT

CURRENT & HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT DATA

Enrollment by Grade Level

658

686 690

730

690

664

746

653

722710

742

611

556

609

669

693

708

737

698

674

770

661

758

724

748

555

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Grade Level

Stu

den

t E

nro

llm

ent

99-00 Enrollment 00-01 Enrollment


400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

Schools

En

rollm

en

t

1999-00 484 484 553 495 543 538 439 570 736 630 737 1250 1339 60

ChinnEnglish

LandingGraden Line Creek Prairie Point Renner Southeast Union Chapel Lakeview Plaza Congress

Park Hill High

School

Park Hill

SouthDay School


Enrollment by School

NOT INCLUDED IN MO-ASBO HANDOUT


Enrollment History

Year K 1 2 3 4 5Un-

gradedK-5

Total 6 7 8

Middle School Total 9 10 11 12

High School Total

Grand Total

Annual Increase/ Decrease

of Students

Cuml Inc/ Dec

%of Increase/ Decrease

1973-74 447 467 445 451 501 493 21 2825 534 505 483 1522 494 467 444 369 1774 6121

1974-75 491 457 461 450 451 521 26 2857 519 555 531 1605 517 497 470 409 1893 6355 234 234 3.8%

1975-76 498 533 474 468 465 489 39 2966 537 547 565 1649 559 547 482 438 2026 6641 286 520 4.5%

1976-77 504 525 555 491 493 460 38 3066 480 552 551 1583 560 549 528 438 2075 6724 83 603 1.2%

1977-78 458 513 533 543 483 472 60 3062 472 514 548 1534 544 573 493 476 2086 6682 -42 561 -0.6%

1978-79 442 499 535 552 560 489 64 3141 478 514 523 1515 587 533 564 425 2109 6765 83 644 1.2%

1979-80 463 444 491 524 529 557 77 3085 482 488 503 1473 532 566 513 480 2091 6649 -116 528 -1.7%

1980-81 390 467 433 484 540 530 40 2884 556 472 481 1509 504 539 544 451 2038 6431 -218 310 -3.3%

1981-82 417 414 465 435 488 539 44 2802 542 560 465 1567 513 514 513 499 2039 6408 -23 287 -0.4%

1982-83 422 395 386 473 438 476 39 2629 538 570 553 1661 471 524 477 463 1935 6225 -183 104 -2.9%

1983-84 380 455 386 394 473 431 39 2558 478 555 553 1586 555 502 511 433 2001 6145 -80 24 -1.3%

1984-85 471 432 437 401 419 486 29 2675 436 521 546 1503 577 582 483 441 2083 6261 116 140 1.9%

1985-86 464 493 442 472 412 435 42 2760 490 486 509 1485 577 593 569 422 2161 6406 145 285 2.3%

1986-87 464 483 525 483 503 432 54 2944 451 543 497 1491 543 602 559 499 2203 6638 232 517 3.6%

1987-88 468 516 492 537 504 527 43 3087 450 483 536 1469 526 547 570 543 2186 6742 104 621 1.6%

1988-89 475 514 529 496 556 527 0 3097 539 472 490 1501 556 515 540 565 2176 6774 32 653 0.5%

1989-90 552 530 517 557 511 571 28 3266 537 547 494 1578 517 567 503 531 2118 6962 188 841 2.8%

1990-91 537 590 532 514 573 523 10 3279 606 548 554 1708 518 531 548 505 2102 7089 127 968 1.8%

1991-92 557 613 589 552 523 597 11 3442 551 618 555 1724 603 516 501 546 2166 7332 243 1211 3.4%

1992-93 589 622 618 610 577 538 6 3560 643 585 633 1861 590 636 508 520 2254 7675 343 1554 4.7%

1993-94 642 601 621 619 647 595 0 3725 572 671 628 1871 639 585 574 519 2317 7913 238 1792 3.1%

1994-95 586 659 627 629 649 667 0 3817 615 575 671 1861 631 628 561 552 2372 8050 137 1929 1.7%

1995-96 623 630 695 621 646 636 0 3851 684 605 586 1875 687 633 631 543 2494 8220 170 2099 2.1%

1996-97 634 652 635 694 599 661 0 3875 635 709 595 1939 612 705 608 579 2504 8318 98 2197 1.2%

1997-98 667 670 651 634 713 603 0 3938 673 663 705 2041 617 627 692 557 2493 8472 154 2351 1.9%

1998-99 646 694 679 660 635 739 0 4053 642 697 665 2004 753 624 629 589 2595 8652 180 2531 2.1%

1999-00 658 686 690 730 690 664 0 4118 746 653 722 2121 710 742 611 556 2619 8858 206 2737 2.4%

2000-01 609 669 693 708 737 698 0 4114 674 770 661 2105 758 724 748 555 2785 9004 146 2883 1.6%

157 1.8%

192 2.4%

LAST 5 YEARS

LAST 10 YEARS



Enrollment Growth

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

1973

-74

1974

-75

1975

-76

1976

-77

1977

-78

1978

-79

1979

-80

1980

-81

1981

-82

1982

-83

1983

-84

1984

-85

1985

-86

1986

-87

1987

-88

1988

-89

1989

-90

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

School Year

Stu

de

nt

En

rollm

en

t



Enrollment Growth


-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

19

73

-74

19

74

-75

19

75

-76

19

76

-77

19

77

-78

19

78

-79

19

79

-80

19

80

-81

19

81

-82

19

82

-83

19

83

-84

19

84

-85

19

85

-86

19

86

-87

19

87

-88

19

88

-89

19

89

-90

19

90

-91

19

91

-92

19

92

-93

19

93

-94

19

94

-95

19

95

-96

19

96

-97

19

97

-98

19

98

-99

19

99

-00

20

00

-01

School Year

En

rollm

en

t G

row

th

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

Mo

rtg

age

Inte

rest

Rat

es

Annual Increase/ Decrease of Students Mortgage Rate

Projection MethodologiesProjection Methodologies

PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES

Cohort Survival

“How many 6th Graders will be enrolled in Park Hill next year?– What I know:

698 5th graders were enrolled in 2000-2001 Based Upon Historical Enrollment Data I can calculate

“cohort survival” rates from 5th to 6th Grade

5th Grade Class 6th Grade Class Cohort Survival Rate

97/98 603 98/99 642 +6.5%

98/99 739 99/00 746 +1.0%

99/00 664 00/01 674 +1.5%

Average = 3.0%

STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Enrollment History

Year K 1 2 3 4 5Un-

gradedK-5

Total 6 7 8

Middle School Total 9 10 11 12

High School Total

Grand Total

Annual Increase/ Decrease

of Students

Cuml Inc/ Dec

%of Increase/ Decrease

1973-74 447 467 445 451 501 493 21 2825 534 505 483 1522 494 467 444 369 1774 6121

1974-75 491 457 461 450 451 521 26 2857 519 555 531 1605 517 497 470 409 1893 6355 234 234 3.8%

1975-76 498 533 474 468 465 489 39 2966 537 547 565 1649 559 547 482 438 2026 6641 286 520 4.5%

1976-77 504 525 555 491 493 460 38 3066 480 552 551 1583 560 549 528 438 2075 6724 83 603 1.2%

1977-78 458 513 533 543 483 472 60 3062 472 514 548 1534 544 573 493 476 2086 6682 -42 561 -0.6%

1978-79 442 499 535 552 560 489 64 3141 478 514 523 1515 587 533 564 425 2109 6765 83 644 1.2%

1979-80 463 444 491 524 529 557 77 3085 482 488 503 1473 532 566 513 480 2091 6649 -116 528 -1.7%

1980-81 390 467 433 484 540 530 40 2884 556 472 481 1509 504 539 544 451 2038 6431 -218 310 -3.3%

1981-82 417 414 465 435 488 539 44 2802 542 560 465 1567 513 514 513 499 2039 6408 -23 287 -0.4%

1982-83 422 395 386 473 438 476 39 2629 538 570 553 1661 471 524 477 463 1935 6225 -183 104 -2.9%

1983-84 380 455 386 394 473 431 39 2558 478 555 553 1586 555 502 511 433 2001 6145 -80 24 -1.3%

1984-85 471 432 437 401 419 486 29 2675 436 521 546 1503 577 582 483 441 2083 6261 116 140 1.9%

1985-86 464 493 442 472 412 435 42 2760 490 486 509 1485 577 593 569 422 2161 6406 145 285 2.3%

1986-87 464 483 525 483 503 432 54 2944 451 543 497 1491 543 602 559 499 2203 6638 232 517 3.6%

1987-88 468 516 492 537 504 527 43 3087 450 483 536 1469 526 547 570 543 2186 6742 104 621 1.6%

1988-89 475 514 529 496 556 527 0 3097 539 472 490 1501 556 515 540 565 2176 6774 32 653 0.5%

1989-90 552 530 517 557 511 571 28 3266 537 547 494 1578 517 567 503 531 2118 6962 188 841 2.8%

1990-91 537 590 532 514 573 523 10 3279 606 548 554 1708 518 531 548 505 2102 7089 127 968 1.8%

1991-92 557 613 589 552 523 597 11 3442 551 618 555 1724 603 516 501 546 2166 7332 243 1211 3.4%

1992-93 589 622 618 610 577 538 6 3560 643 585 633 1861 590 636 508 520 2254 7675 343 1554 4.7%

1993-94 642 601 621 619 647 595 0 3725 572 671 628 1871 639 585 574 519 2317 7913 238 1792 3.1%

1994-95 586 659 627 629 649 667 0 3817 615 575 671 1861 631 628 561 552 2372 8050 137 1929 1.7%

1995-96 623 630 695 621 646 636 0 3851 684 605 586 1875 687 633 631 543 2494 8220 170 2099 2.1%

1996-97 634 652 635 694 599 661 0 3875 635 709 595 1939 612 705 608 579 2504 8318 98 2197 1.2%

1997-98 667 670 651 634 713 603 0 3938 673 663 705 2041 617 627 692 557 2493 8472 154 2351 1.9%

1998-99 646 694 679 660 635 739 0 4053 642 697 665 2004 753 624 629 589 2595 8652 180 2531 2.1%

1999-00 658 686 690 730 690 664 0 4118 746 653 722 2121 710 742 611 556 2619 8858 206 2737 2.4%

2000-01 609 669 693 708 737 698 0 4114 674 770 661 2105 758 724 748 555 2785 9004 146 2883 1.6%

157 1.8%

192 2.4%

LAST 5 YEARS

LAST 10 YEARS



Cohort Survival

“How many 6th Graders will be enrolled in Park Hill next year?

698 5th Graders in 2000-01

x +3.0% Cohort Survival Rate

= 21 Additional Students

Projecting 719 6th Graders During 2000-01 School Year


Cohort Survival

Cohort Survival– Cohort survival is a measure of the rate at which students grouped by grade

level pass into the next grade level a year later.– To minimize the effects of an exceptional year, three and seven year cohorts

are calculated by averaging the cohort survival for three and seven years respectively.

– Park Hill utilizes two Cohort SurvivalMethods : 3 Year Cohort Data & 7Year Cohort Data

Growth From. . . 3-YEAR 7-YEAR

Kindergarten to 1st 3.97% 4.63%

1st to 2nd 0.60% 1.75%

2nd to 3rd 3.83% 1.65%

3rd to 4th 1.89% 1.77%

4th to 5th 0.15% 0.16%

5th to 6th 2.97% 2.36%

6th to 7th 2.83% 2.21%

7th to 8th 1.70% 0.69%

8th to 9th 6.19% 4.22%

9th to 10th 0.55% 0.76%

10th to 11th -0.32% -1.48%

11th to 12th -11.89% -8.48%

U



Cohort Survival

Cohort Survival– One problem with Cohort Survival is that there is no way to predict

Kindergarten enrollment because there is no preceding grade.– Park Hill has utilized “Live Birth” Data From Platte County

Birth Data

http://www.health.state.mo.us


Year Live Births

Change From Previous

Years

Year of Kindergarten Enrollment

Kindergarten Class Size

% of Platte County Live

Births as Park Hill Kindergarten

Students1993 935 38 1998 646 69.1%1994 901 -34 1999 658 73.0%1995 869 -32 2000 609 70.1%


Cohort Survival

By calculating the % of births 5 years earlier, upcoming Kindergarten class sizes can be “projected”


Year Live Births

Change From Previous

Years

Year of Kindergarten Enrollment

Kindergarten Class Size

% of Platte County Live

Births as Park Hill Kindergarten

Students1993 935 38 1998 646 69.1%1994 901 -34 1999 658 73.0%1995 869 -32 2000 609 70.1%1996 961 92 2001 674 70.1%1997 1006 45 2002 668 66.4%1998 985 -21 2003 687 69.7%1999 1004 19 2004 663 66.0%2000 1016 12 2005 704 69.3%2001 1028 12 2006 674 65.6%2002 1040 12 2007 717 68.9%2003 1052 12 2008 686 65.2%2004 1064 12 2009 729 68.5%2005 1076 12 2010 697 64.8%2006 1088 12 2011 754 69.3%

* PROJECTED VALUES

STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Cohort Projections

Year Elementary Total Middle School Total High School Total Grand Total

1997-98 3938 2041 2493 8472

1998-99 4053 2004 2595 8652

1999-00 4118 2121 2619 8858

2000-01 4167 2114 2752 9033

2001-02 4212 2197 2821 9230

2002-03 4212 2221 2911 9344

2003-04 4227 2291 2952 9470

2004-05 4247 2329 2980 9556

2005-06 4275 2312 3120 9707

2006-07 4336 2294 3133 9763

2007-08 4383 2306 3200 9889

2008-09 4428 2324 3240 9992

2009-10 4494 2360 3200 10054

2010-11 4570 2372 3211 10153

Year Elementary Total Middle School Total High School Total Grand Total

1997-98 3938 2041 2493 8472

1998-99 4053 2004 2595 8652

1999-00 4118 2121 2619 8858

2000-01 4162 2111 2750 9023

2001-02 4201 2188 2801 9190

2002-03 4196 2212 2867 9275

2003-04 4218 2269 2891 9378

2004-05 4234 2306 2912 9452

2005-06 4260 2284 3048 9592

2006-07 4320 2272 3047 9639

2007-08 4366 2278 3110 9754

2008-09 4411 2296 3146 9853

2009-10 4478 2330 3102 9910

2010-11 4554 2341 3117 10012

3-Year Cohort

7-Year Cohort


Household Data

Household– Enrollment projections, based on households, provide an

opportunity to determine student enrollment further in the future. Part of the downfall to this approach is the projection of both households in the district as well as the number of school age children in each household.

YearElementary Students

Middle Students High Students District Total

Number of Households

Annual Change in

Households

Students Per

Household

1989 3266 1578 2118 6962 16242 326 0.42864181990 3279 1708 2102 7089 16642 400 0.42597041991 3442 1724 2166 7332 17068 426 0.42957581992 3560 1861 2254 7675 17616 548 0.43568351993 3725 1871 2317 7913 18091 475 0.43739981994 3817 1861 2372 8050 18649 558 0.43165851995 3851 1875 2494 8220 19119 470 0.42993881996 3875 1939 2504 8318 19658 539 0.42313561997 3938 2041 2493 8472 20535 877 0.41256391998 4053 2004 2595 8652 21265 730 0.40686571999 4118 2121 2619 8858 22137 872 0.4001446



Household Data

Collecting New Household Data


MunicipalitySingle Family

Multi Family Total

Single Family

Multi Family Total

Single Family

Multi Family Total

Kansas City 299 328 627 295 426 721 228 50 278Parkville 40 0 40 90 0 90 108 0 108

Platte County 171 0 171 234 0 234 200 0 200Riverside 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 2

Weatherby Lake 10 0 10 5 0 5 2 0 2Platte County Adjustment -118 -167 -146

TOTAL 730 884 444

1998 1999 2000


Household Data

As the district continues to increase households, the number of students per household multiplied by the projected households will provide an enrollment projection. The make these projections the following steps are followed:

1. Project the number of households in the Park Hill School District based upon historical growth.

2. Project the number of students per household based upon historical growth.

3. Calculate district enrollment based upon the above two projections.

4. Distribute the enrollment across Elementary, Middle and High School levels according to historical distribution.

YearElementary Students

Middle Students High Students District Total

Number of Households

Annual Change in

Households

Students Per

Household

46% 24% 31% 100%2001 4267 2208 2878 9354 23509 500 0.39790722002 4296 2223 2897 9417 24065 556 0.39132512003 4331 2242 2921 9494 24677 612 0.3847432004 4372 2263 2949 9584 25345 668 0.37816092005 4419 2287 2981 9687 26069 724 0.37157882006 4471 2314 3015 9800 26849 780 0.36499672007 4527 2343 3053 9923 27685 836 0.35841462008 4587 2374 3093 10054 28577 892 0.35183262009 4651 2407 3137 10194 29525 948 0.34525052010 4717 2441 3181 10339 30529 1004 0.3386684

1 234


Method Comparisons

School Year3-Year

Projections7-Year

ProjectionsHousehold Projections

3-Year Projections

7-Year Projections

Household Projections

3-Year Projections

7-Year Projections


3-Year Projections

7-Year Projections


2001-02 4159 4155 4267 2195 2178 2208 2845 2851 2878 9199 9184 93532002-03 4161 4151 4296 2204 2179 2223 2933 2908 2897 9298 9238 94162003-04 4194 4182 4331 2277 2246 2242 2959 2910 2921 9430 9338 94942004-05 4193 4197 4372 2316 2266 2263 3005 2922 2949 9514 9385 95842005-06 4256 4266 4419 2289 2232 2287 3132 3033 2981 9677 9531 96872006-07 4331 4339 4471 2240 2181 2314 3136 3025 3015 9707 9545 98002007-08 4374 4383 4527 2251 2206 2343 3221 3086 3053 9846 9675 99232008-09 4394 4403 4587 2280 2239 2374 3233 3089 3093 9907 9731 100542009-10 4435 4446 4651 2372 2328 2407 3162 3018 3137 9970 9793 101952010-11 4475 4486 4717 2360 2317 2441 3188 3042 3181 10023 9845 10339

Grand TotalElementary Schools Middle Schools High Schools


ANALYZING THE DATA

Getting Organized

Define Enrollment




Analyze DataBuild Report

ANALYZING THE DATA

Elementary Building Need

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

School Year

Pro

ject

ed E

lem

enta

ry S

tud

ent

En

rollm

ent

3-Year Projections 7-Year Projections Household Projections

8 ElementaryEffective Capacity(4184)

9 ElementaryEffective Capacity(4707)


ANALYZING THE DATA

Middle School Building Need

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

School Year

Pro

ject

ed M

idd

le S

cho

ol E

nro

llmen

t


3 Middle SchoolEffective Capacity(2688)


ANALYZING THE DATA

High School Building Need

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

School Year

Pro

jec

ted

Hig

h S

ch

oo

l En

rollm

en

t


2 High SchoolEffective Capacity(3240)


BUILDING THE REPORT

Getting Organized

Define Enrollment




Analyze Data

Build Report

BUILDING THE REPORT

“Demographic Profile”

Final report is prepared in Microsoft Word using graphs, tables and charts from Microsoft Excel.

– Displayed on Internet as Adobe Acrobat (PDF) File

Report also includes– Demographic Comparisons (Community & School)

http://oseda.missouri.edu

– Governor’s Report Card http://www.dese.state.mo.us

– Maps– Definitions

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Questions?

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