1

Projection of potential forest resources and wood removals

use of NFI data and models at regional level

A. Colin, C. Barnérias, N. Hamza,J.L. Cousin, M.D. Van Damme, S. Roger

Cirad – Montpellier – 28th June 2006

IFN - Nogent-sur-Vernisson - antoine.colin@ifn.fr

2

Context- Modernization of NFI tools and combination of 3 current applications :

Age classes (regular evenaged stands) Diameter classes (all stand structures)

- Development of a functional and modular tool (user-friendly, practical tool to discuss with local forest managers)

- Project management : follow-up of processes, hypothesis and actions (traceability)

- Integration of the French NFI into the growth modeler community - easier use and access to NFI data : 270 000 inventory plots, 3 millions trees,- importation of external data (productivity), - exportation of results under a database format.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

3

Objectives

- To forecast short and mid-term potential timber harvests (5-30 yrs)- Geographic level : local, regional (natural, administrative), national

- A decision-making tool :

Strategies and actions to enhance timber harvests Adequacy between forest resource & industrial investments Follow-up of national forest policy (afforestation program, etc.)

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

4

A three steps process

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

3. Calculation of potential forest resource and wood removals in the future

- Tools (growth models)

- Results

- Building set of forest management units

- Modeling raw NFI data1. Analysis of current forest resource

- Analysis of removals in the past

- Comparing forest inventories

- Discussion with local managers

2. Definition of appropriate management practices

5

Service diagram

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

Module facultatif

Module obligatoire

données d'entrée ou de sortie

Apports extérieurs

Traitements dans Capsis

scenarii de croissance

Extérieur (modèles de la recherche)

Hypothèses de croissance

Saisie directe

Comparaison d’inventaires

scenarii de gestion

Définition des scenarii

sylvicoles

Saisie directe

Extérieur (ONF, CRPF, recherche)

Base d’exploitation

de l’IFN Constitution des DE et évaluation de leur

pertinence statistique

Préparation des données

par DE

Lissage

Données d’entrée des simulateurs

Choix du simulateur

Caractérisation de la ressource à l'instant t

Résultats, Précision

Volume coupé prélevé dans chaque classe de diamètre

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

10 11 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Classe de diamètre (cm)

Volu

me

(m3)

02

03

11

Simulations (& actualisation)- par classe d'âge - par classe de diamètre- Disponibilités forestières brutes- autres …

Extérieur (modèles de la recherche)

6______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

Compromise

homogeneity x detail x statistic accuracy

Building set of forest management units (DE)

Minimum 5000 ha

Query on NFI databases

Constitutive criteria (play a role on management practices) : - Geographic localization (department, NFI region)

- Ownership- Stand structure- Main tree species- Other (accessibility, elevation, site, etc.)

Objective : To describe the regional forest resource for management purposes

7

Assessment of the forest resource (raw NFI data)Variables :Growing stock, net increment, forest area, number of stems, basal area

Division criteria (NFI criteria) :- region, ownership, stand structure, tree specie- age classes,- diameter classes (small, medium, large),- slope and accessibility classes, - cross sections (timber / industrial / fuel wood), - others (to be define with local managers)

Compiled data, no more use for data at plot level

Qualité du chêne pédonculé en futaie régulière dans l'Avesnois par classe de grosseur des tiges

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 90 100

diamètre (cm)

volu

me

(m3

)

BO

BI

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

8

Preparation of input data for growth models

Raw NFI data (for every DE) :

-growing stock, increment / classes (age or diameter)

- « single-tree / distance-independent »

Operation : “Smoothing” raw NFI data per ha

Objectives :1. Prevent improbable data2. One age – one data

Hypothesis :Transversal approach : the values measured on several stands of different ages at the same date are applied to one stand growing from age t to age t+n

Production du sapin pectiné en futaie régulière dans la région Limousin (surface = 8650 ha)

02468

1012141618

0 20 40 60 80 100âge

m3/

ha/

an

9

Control factors (for every DE) : - Intensity of thinning (% growing stock, increment, number of stems), - Area concerned by regeneration practices / clear cuts, - Area of reforested & afforested lands, - Management program complying ratio in private forests

Definition of forest management practices

Even aged high forest of maritime pine in private

forest of Brittany

1. « Business as usual »

2. Intensified management practices

3. Others …

Private and public forest managers / other

regional organizations / French NFI

10

Iterative model for age classes distributions

Modeled NFI data

One set of management units (DE)

Evenaged stands

Objectives :

- resource

- Wood removals

11

Iterative model for diameter classes distributions

Short and mid-term objectives :

- assessment of forest resource

- calculation of potential wood removals

Growth : shift in the number of stems from one diameter class to another, dynamic based on radial growth measured by NFI in the forest

Thinning : % number of stems / diameter classes (output of the comparing inventories process)

Every kind of stand structures

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

12

Edition of PDF reports (automation)

+ additional calculations from the results

• Economic balance

• Fuel wood resource = wood removals – (timber + industrial round wood)

• Carbon balance

• Others …

13______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

Interactive mode

using Capsis

Qualification of appropriate management practices

for one set of forest management units (DE)

Generalisation for all set of forest management units (project)

INTERNET

Web service based on Capsis batch mode

Shared Database

Software Architecture

14

References2005- IFN. J. Lenoir. Le Douglas en Normandie : estimation et valorisation de la ressource à partir des résultats du 3ième inventaire IFN. Rapport de fin d’étude FIF- IFN. V. Morillon. Le Douglas en Limousin. Utilisation des résultats du 4ième inventaire IFN. Rapport de fin d’étude ENSTIB/ENGREF

2004IFN / AFOCEL. Disponibilités en bois résineux en France, réévaluation après les tempêtes de décembre 1999

2003IFN. Étude de la ressource forestière et des disponibilités en bois en Bretagne

2001IFN / AFOCEL. Suivi de la ressource en pin maritime dans les Landes de Gascogne après la tempête de 1999

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier