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Total Supply Demand Export Supply
2002 13298000 12,600,986 1034641 12,263,359
2003 13090000 12,119,692 980433 12,317,567
2004 12991000 12,183,913 819547 12,270,453
2005 12523000 11,584,928 1053984 11,937,016
2006 12195000 11,713,986 724551 11,798,449
2007 13066000 13,011,333 356571 12,709,4292008 14674000 12,317,016 548254 14,125,746
2009 14666000 14,469,000 196645 14,469,355
2010 15449000 15,450,000 338000 15,111,000
2011 15595000 15,625,000 331000 15,264,000
Arithmetic Straight Line Method (ASLM)
Year 2002 = 12,263,359 n = N -1
Year 2011 = 15,264,000 N
Difference = 3,000,641 n
Yc = Yn-1 + X
Y2003 = Y2002 + X
Y2003 = 12,596,763.56
Year Y Yc Absolute
2002 12,263,359
2003 12,317,567 12,596,763.56 2.79E+05
2004 12,270,453 12,650,971.56 3.81E+05
2005 11,937,016 12,603,857.56 6.67E+05
2006 11,798,449 12,270,420.56 4.72E+05
2007 12,709,429 12,131,853.56 5.78E+05
2008 14,125,746 13,042,833.56 1.08E+06
2009 14,469,355 14,459,150.56 1.02E+04
2010 15,111,000 14,802,759.56 3.08E+05
2011 15,264,000 15,444,404.56 1.80E+05
Total
SD
Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method (AGCM)
Year Y Annual Increase % Increase Yc
2002 12,263,359
2003 12,317,567 54,208 0.44 12,575,745.65
2004 12,270,453 -47,114 -0.38 12,631,334.50
2005 11,937,016 -333,437 -2.72 12,583,020.36
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2006 11,798,449 -138,567 -1.16 12,241,089.66
2007 12,709,429 910,980 7.72 12,098,992.92
2008 14,125,746 1,416,317 11.14 13,033,178.47
2009 14,469,355 343,609 2.43 14,485,573.56
2010 15,111,000 641,645 4.43 14,837,935.37
2011 15,264,000 153,000 1.01 15,495,925.10
22.93
Statistical Straight Line Method (SSLM)
Year Y X XY X^2
2002 12,263,359 -9 -110370231 81
2003 12,317,567 -7 -86222969 49
2004 12,270,453 -5 -61352265 252005 11,937,016 -3 -35811048 9
2006 11,798,449 -1 -11798449 1
2007 12,709,429 1 12709429 1
2008 14,125,746 3 42377238 9
2009 14,469,355 5 72346775 25
2010 15,111,000 7 105777000 49
2011 15,264,000 9 137376000 81
Total 132,266,374 0 65031480 330
Statistical Parabolic Projection Method (SPPM)
Year Y X X^2 X^4
2002 12,263,359 -9 81 6561
2003 12,317,567 -7 49 2401
2004 12,270,453 -5 25 625
2005 11,937,016 -3 9 81
2006 11,798,449 -1 1 1
2007 12,709,429 1 1 1
2008 14,125,746 3 9 81
2009 14,469,355 5 25 625
2010 15,111,000 7 49 24012011 15,264,000 9 81 6561
Total 132,266,374 330 19338
Statistical Geometric Curve Method (SGCM)
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Year Y X X^2 logY
2002 12,263,359 -9 81 7.09
2003 12,317,567 -7 49 7.09
2004 12,270,453 -5 25 7.09
2005 11,937,016 -3 9 7.08
2006 11,798,449 -1 1 7.07
2007 12,709,429 1 1 7.10
2008 14,125,746 3 9 7.152009 14,469,355 5 25 7.16
2010 15,111,000 7 49 7.18
2011 15,264,000 9 81 7.18
Total 132,266,374 330 71.19
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Average Annual Increase (X)
10 X = Difference/n
9 X = 333,404.56
Squared Year
2012
7.80E+10 2013
1.45E+11 2014
4.45E+11 2015
2.23E+11 2016
3.34E+11 2017
1.17E+12 2018
1.04E+08 2019
9.50E+10 2020
3.25E+10 2021
################# 2022
529,584.19 2023
2024
2025
Absolute Squared
Ave. % Inc. 2.55
1.26E+07 2.52E+07 Projected values
3.61E+05 1.30E+11
6.46E+05 4.17E+11
10,000,000
11,000,00012,000,000
13,000,000
14,000,000
15,000,000
16,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200
CementSupply.
MT
Year
Historical Demand Data for Cement in t
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4.43E+05 1.96E+11
6.10E+05 3.73E+11
1.09E+06 1.19E+12
1.62E+04 2.63E+08
2.73E+05 7.46E+10
2.32E+05 5.38E+10
Total 2.44E+12
SD 520,519.57
bX Yc Absolute Squared
-4.43 13,226,635 9.63E+05 9.28E+11
-3.44 13,226,636 9.09E+05 8.26E+11
-2.46 13,226,636 9.56E+05 9.14E+11-1.48 13,226,637 1.29E+06 1.66E+12
-0.49 13,226,637 -1.43E+06 2.04E+12
0.49 13,226,638 -5.17E+05 2.68E+11
1.48 13,226,638 8.99E+05 8.08E+11
2.46 13,226,639 1.24E+06 1.54E+12
3.44 13,226,639 1.88E+06 3.55E+12
4.43 13,226,640 2.04E+06 4.15E+12
1.67E+13
SD 1292026.838
XY X^2Y bX cX^2 Yc
-1.10E+08 9.93E+08 -1.77E+06 1.31E+06 12,228,583
-8.62E+07 6.04E+08 -1.38E+06 7.92E+05 12,105,692
-6.14E+07 3.07E+08 -9.85E+05 4.04E+05 12,112,057
-3.58E+07 1.07E+08 -5.91E+05 1.45E+05 12,247,677
-1.18E+07 1.18E+07 -1.97E+05 1.62E+04 12,512,552
1.27E+07 1.27E+07 1.97E+05 1.62E+04 12,906,682
4.24E+07 1.27E+08 5.91E+05 1.45E+05 13,430,067
7.23E+07 3.62E+08 9.85E+05 4.04E+05 14,082,708
1.06E+08 7.40E+08 1.38E+06 7.92E+05 14,864,6031.37E+08 1.24E+09 1.77E+06 1.31E+06 15,775,754
6.50E+07 4.50E+09 132,266,374
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XlogY Yc Absolute Squared
-63.80 11,548,401 7.15E+05 5.11E+11
-49.63 11,889,602 4.28E+05 1.83E+11
-35.44 12,240,883 2.96E+04 8.74E+08
-21.23 12,602,544 6.66E+05 4.43E+11
-7.07 12,974,889 1.18E+06 1.38E+12
7.10 13,358,236 6.49E+05 4.21E+11
21.45 13,752,909 3.73E+05 1.39E+1135.80 14,159,242 3.10E+05 9.62E+10
50.26 14,577,581 5.33E+05 2.85E+11
64.65 15,008,279 2.56E+05 6.54E+10
2.09 132,112,566 3,528,189,227,358.80
SD = 593985.625
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Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
20192020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Yc
15,777,809
16,111,214
16,444,618
16,778,023
17,111,427
17,444,832
17,778,236
18,111,641
18,445,046
18,778,450
19,111,855
19,445,259
19,778,664
20,112,068
Year Yc
2012 15,890,655
2013 16,295,441
2014 16,710,537
2015 17,136,208
SSL
SP
SG
AG
Projectio
AS
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
he Philippines
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
2012 2
ProjectedSupply,MT
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2016 17,572,721
2017 18,020,354
2018 18,479,390
2019 18,950,119
2020 19,432,838
2021 19,927,854
2022 20,435,480
2023 20,956,0362024 21,489,853
2025 22,037,268
Year X
2012 11
a 13226637.4 2013 13
2014 152015 17
2016 19
b 0.491670544 2017 21
2018 23
2019 25
2020 27
2021 29
2022 31
2023 33
2024 35
2025 37
Absolute Squared
3.48E+04 1.21E+09
2.12E+05 4.49E+10 a = 12693459.84
1.58E+05 2.51E+10
3.11E+05 9.65E+10
7.14E+05 5.10E+11
1.97E+05 3.89E+10 b = 197065.0909
6.96E+05 4.84E+11
3.87E+05 1.49E+11
2.46E+05 6.07E+105.12E+05 2.62E+11 c = 16156.89583
1.67E+12
SD 408976.7569
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Year X
2012 11
log a 7.12 2013 13
2014 15
2015 17
log b = 0.006323 2016 19
2017 21
2018 232019 25
2020 27
2021 29
2022 31
2023 33
2024 35
2025 37
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ASLM AGCM SSLM SGCM SPPM
Yc Yc Yc Yc Yc
15,777,809 15,890,655 13,226,643 15,451,703 16,816,160
16,111,214 16,295,441 13,226,644 15,908,228 17,985,821
16,444,618 16,710,537 13,226,645 16,378,241 19,284,738
16,778,023 17,136,208 13,226,646 16,862,140 20,712,909
17,111,427 17,572,721 13,226,647 17,360,337 22,270,336
17,444,832 18,020,354 13,226,648 17,873,253 23,957,018
17,778,236 18,479,390 13,226,649 18,401,323 25,772,955
18,111,641 18,950,119 13,226,650 18,944,995 27,718,14718,445,046 19,432,838 13,226,651 19,504,730 29,792,594
18,778,450 19,927,854 13,226,652 20,081,002 31,996,297
19,111,855 20,435,480 13,226,653 20,674,301 34,329,255
19,445,259 20,956,036 13,226,654 21,285,129 36,791,467
19,778,664 21,489,853 13,226,655 21,914,004 39,382,935
20,112,068 22,037,268 13,226,656 22,561,459 42,103,659
593985.63
408976.76
1292026.84M
M
M
M 520519.57
Method Standard Deviation
M 529584.19
13 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Year
Projection of Supply
ASLM
AGCM
SSLM
SGCM
SPPM
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Yc
13,226,643
13,226,644
13,226,64513,226,646
13,226,647
13,226,648
13,226,649
13,226,650
13,226,651
13,226,652
13,226,653
13,226,654
13,226,655
13,226,656
Year X X^2 Yc
2012 11 121 16,816,160
2013 13 169 17,985,821
2014 15 225 19,284,738
2015 17 289 20,712,909
2016 19 361 22,270,336
2017 21 441 23,957,018
2018 23 529 25,772,955
2019 25 625 27,718,147
2020 27 729 29,792,5942021 29 841 31,996,297
2022 31 961 34,329,255
2023 33 1089 36,791,467
2024 35 1225 39,382,935
2025 37 1369 42,103,659
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Yc
15,451,703
15,908,228
16,378,241
16,862,140
17,360,337
17,873,253
18,401,32318,944,995
19,504,730
20,081,002
20,674,301
21,285,129
21,914,004
22,561,459
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Total Supply Demand Export Supply
2002 13298000 12600986 1034641 12,263,359
2003 13090000 12119692 980433 12,317,567
2004 12991000 12183913 819547 12,270,453
2005 12523000 11584928 1053984 11,937,016
2006 12195000 11713986 724551 11,798,4492007 13066000 13011333 356571 12,709,429
2008 14674000 12317016 548254 14,125,746
2009 14666000 14469000 196645 14,469,355
2010 15449000 15450000 338000 15,111,000
2011 15595000 15625000 331000 15,264,000
Arithmetic Straight Line Method (ASLM)
Year 2002 = 12,263,359 n = N -1
Year 2011 = 15,264,000 N 10
Difference = 3,000,641 n 9
Yc = Yn-1 + X
Y2003 = Y2002 + X
Y2003 = 12,934,390.56
Year Y Yc Absolute Squared2002 12,600,986
2003 12,119,692 12,934,390.56 8.15E+05 6.64E+11
2004 12,183,913 12,453,096.56 2.69E+05 7.25E+10
2005 11,584,928 12,517,317.56 9.32E+05 8.69E+11
2006 11,713,986 11,918,332.56 2.04E+05 4.18E+10
2007 13,011,333 12,047,390.56 9.64E+05 9.29E+11
2008 12,317,016 13,344,737.56 1.03E+06 1.06E+12
2009 14,469,000 12,650,420.56 1.82E+06 3.31E+12
2010 15,450,000 14,802,404.56 6.48E+05 4.19E+11
2011 15,625,000 15,783,404.56 1.58E+05 2.51E+10
Total 7.38E+12
SD 905,808.48
Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method (AGCM)
Year Y Annual Increase % Increase Yc Absolute
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2002 12,600,986
2003 12,119,692 -481,294 -3.82 12,937,453.29 1.29E+07
2004 12,183,913 64,221 0.53 12,443,307.94 2.59E+05
2005 11,584,928 -598,985 -4.92 12,509,243.75 9.24E+05
2006 11,713,986 129,058 1.11 11,894,264.85 1.80E+05
2007 13,011,333 1,297,347 11.08 12,026,768.92 9.85E+05
2008 12,317,016 -694,317 -5.34 13,358,757.24 1.04E+062009 14,469,000 2,151,984 17.47 12,645,900.82 1.82E+06
2010 15,450,000 981,000 6.78 14,855,346.37 5.95E+05
2011 15,625,000 175,000 1.13 15,862,540.70 2.38E+05
24.03
Total
SD
Statistical Straight Line Method (SSLM)
Year Y X XY X^2 bX
2002 12,600,986 -9 -113408874 81 -4.49
2003 12,119,692 -7 -84837844 49 -3.50
2004 12,183,913 -5 -60919565 25 -2.50
2005 11,584,928 -3 -34754784 9 -1.50
2006 11,713,986 -1 -11713986 1 -0.50
2007 13,011,333 1 13011333 1 0.50
2008 12,317,016 3 36951048 9 1.50
2009 14,469,000 5 72345000 25 2.502010 15,450,000 7 108150000 49 3.50
2011 15,625,000 9 140625000 81 4.49
Total 131,075,854 0 65447328 330
Statistical Parabolic Projection Method (SPPM)
Year Y X X^2 X^4 XY
2002 12,600,986 -9 81 6561 -1.13E+08
2003 12,119,692 -7 49 2401 -8.48E+07
2004 12,183,913 -5 25 625 -6.09E+07
2005 11,584,928 -3 9 81 -3.48E+07
2006 11,713,986 -1 1 1 -1.17E+07
2007 13,011,333 1 1 1 1.30E+07
2008 12,317,016 3 9 81 3.70E+07
2009 14,469,000 5 25 625 7.23E+07
2010 15,450,000 7 49 2401 1.08E+08
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2011 15,625,000 9 81 6561 1.41E+08
Total 131,075,854 330 19338 6.54E+07
Statistical Geometric Curve Method (SGCM)
Year Y X X^2 logY XlogY
2002 12,600,986 -9 81 7.10 -63.90
2003 12,119,692 -7 49 7.08 -49.58
2004 12,183,913 -5 25 7.09 -35.43
2005 11,584,928 -3 9 7.06 -21.19
2006 11,713,986 -1 1 7.07 -7.07
2007 13,011,333 1 1 7.11 7.11
2008 12,317,016 3 9 7.09 21.27
2009 14,469,000 5 25 7.16 35.80
2010 15,450,000 7 49 7.19 50.32
2011 15,625,000 9 81 7.19 64.74
Total 131,075,854 330 71.15 2.08
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Average Annual Increase (X)
X = Difference/n
X = 333,404.56
Year Yc2012 16,116,809
2013 16,450,214
2014 16,783,618
2015 17,117,023
2016 17,450,427
2017 17,783,832
2018 18,117,236
2019 18,450,641
2020 18,784,046
2021 19,117,450
2022 19,450,855
2023 19,784,259
2024 20,117,664
2025 20,451,068
Squared Year
10,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
13,000,000
14,000,000
15,000,000
16,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Cement
Supply.
MT
Year
Historical Demand Data for Cement in the Philippines
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Ave. % Inc. 2.67 2012
2.59E+07 Projected values 2013
6.73E+10 2014
8.54E+11 2015
3.25E+10 2016
9.69E+11 2017
1.09E+12 20183.32E+12 2019
3.54E+11 2020
5.64E+10 2021
2022
2023
6.74E+12 2024
2025
865,543.64
Yc Absolute Squared
13,107,583 5.07E+05 2.57E+11
13,107,584 9.88E+05 9.76E+11 a 13107585.4
13,107,584 9.24E+05 8.53E+11
13,107,585 1.52E+06 2.32E+12
13,107,585 -1.39E+06 1.94E+12
13,107,586 -9.63E+04 9.26E+09 b 0.50
13,107,586 -7.91E+05 6.25E+11
13,107,587 1.36E+06 1.85E+1213,107,587 2.34E+06 5.49E+12
13,107,588 2.52E+06 6.34E+12
20,658,315,876,990
SD 1437300.104
X^2Y bX cX^2 Yc Absolute Squared
1.02E+09 -1.78E+06 2.09E+06 12,560,626 4.04E+04 1.63E+09
5.94E+08 -1.39E+06 1.26E+06 12,131,964 1.23E+04 1.51E+08
3.05E+08 -9.92E+05 6.45E+05 11,909,631 2.74E+05 7.52E+10
1.04E+08 -5.95E+05 2.32E+05 11,893,626 3.09E+05 9.53E+10
1.17E+07 -1.98E+05 2.58E+04 12,083,949 3.70E+05 1.37E+11
1.30E+07 1.98E+05 2.58E+04 12,480,599 5.31E+05 2.82E+11
1.11E+08 5.95E+05 2.32E+05 13,083,577 7.67E+05 5.88E+11
3.62E+08 9.92E+05 6.45E+05 13,892,884 5.76E+05 3.32E+11
7.57E+08 1.39E+06 1.26E+06 14,908,518 5.41E+05 2.93E+11
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1.27E+09 1.78E+06 2.09E+06 16,130,480 5.05E+05 2.56E+11
4.54E+09 131,075,854 2.06E+12
SD 453772.4735
Yc Absolute Squared
11,438,529 1.16E+06 1.35E+12
11,775,006 3.45E+05 1.19E+11 log a 7.12
12,121,381 6.25E+04 3.91E+09
12,477,945 8.93E+05 7.97E+11
12,844,998 1.13E+06 1.28E+12 log b = 0.006295
13,222,848 2.12E+05 4.47E+10
13,611,813 1.29E+06 1.68E+12
14,012,220 4.57E+05 2.09E+11
14,424,405 1.03E+06 1.05E+12
14,848,716 7.76E+05 6.03E+11
130,777,861 7,135,041,784,245.52
SD = 844691.7653
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ASLM
Year Yc
2012 16,116,809
2013 16,450,214
2014 16,783,618
2015 17,117,023
2016 17,450,427
2017 17,783,832
2018 18,117,236
2019 18,450,641
2020 18,784,046
2021 19,117,450
2022 19,450,855
2023 19,784,259
2024 20,117,664
2025 20,451,068
Yc
Projection Method
ASLM
AGCM
SSLM
SPPM
SGCM
2012
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20
ProjectedDemand,MT
Projec
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16,286,097
16,720,963
17,167,440
17,625,840
18,096,479
18,579,685
19,075,79319,585,149
20,108,105
20,645,025
21,196,281
21,762,257
22,343,346
22,939,950
Year X Yc
2012 11 13,107,591
2013 13 13,107,592
2014 15 13,107,593
2015 17 13,107,594
2016 19 13,107,595
2017 21 13,107,596
2018 23 13,107,597
2019 25 13,107,5982020 27 13,107,599
2021 29 13,107,600
2022 31 13,107,601
2023 33 13,107,602
2024 35 13,107,603
2025 37 13,107,604
a = 12256482.93
b = 198325.2364
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c = 25790.9839
Year X Yc
2012 11 15,285,507
2013 13 15,735,148
2014 15 16,198,015
2015 17 16,674,498
2016 19 17,164,997
2017 21 17,669,925
2018 23 18,189,706
2019 25 18,724,777
2020 27 19,275,587
2021 29 19,842,600
2022 31 20,426,293
2023 33 21,027,156
2024 35 21,645,693
2025 37 22,282,426
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AGCM SSLM SGCM SPPM
Yc Yc Yc Yc
16,286,097 13,107,591 15,285,507 17,558,770
16,720,963 13,107,592 15,735,148 19,193,387
17,167,440 13,107,593 16,198,015 21,034,333
17,625,840 13,107,594 16,674,498 23,081,606
18,096,479 13,107,595 17,164,997 25,335,208
18,579,685 13,107,596 17,669,925 27,795,137
19,075,793 13,107,597 18,189,706 30,461,394
19,585,149 13,107,598 18,724,777 33,333,979
20,108,105 13,107,599 19,275,587 36,412,892
20,645,025 13,107,600 19,842,600 39,698,132
21,196,281 13,107,601 20,426,293 43,189,701
21,762,257 13,107,602 21,027,156 46,887,597
22,343,346 13,107,603 21,645,693 50,791,821
22,939,950 13,107,604 22,282,426 54,902,374
Standard Deviation
905808.48
865543.64
1437300.10
453772.47
844691.77
7 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Year
ion of Demand
ASLM
AGCM
SSLM
SGCM
SPPM
7/30/2019 Projection of Supply and Demand
29/32
7/30/2019 Projection of Supply and Demand
30/32
2021 29 841 39,698,132
2022 31 961 43,189,701
2023 33 1089 46,887,597
2024 35 1225 50,791,821
2025 37 1369 54,902,374
7/30/2019 Projection of Supply and Demand
31/32
Demand Supply Unsatisfied %
2012 17,558,769.58 16,816,160.23 742,609.35 4.23
2013 19,193,387.28 17,985,821.42 1,207,565.87 6.29
2014 21,034,332.85 19,284,737.76 1,749,595.09 8.322015 23,081,606.30 20,712,909.28 2,368,697.02 10.26
2016 25,335,207.61 22,270,335.96 3,064,871.65 12.10
2017 27,795,136.80 23,957,017.81 3,838,118.99 13.81
2018 30,461,393.85 25,772,954.82 4,688,439.03 15.39
2019 33,333,978.78 27,718,147.01 5,615,831.77 16.85
2020 36,412,891.58 29,792,594.35 6,620,297.22 18.18
2021 39,698,132.25 31,996,296.87 7,701,835.38 19.40
2022 43,189,700.79 34,329,254.55 8,860,446.24 20.52
2023 46,887,597.20 36,791,467.40 10,096,129.80 21.53
2024 50,791,821.48 39,382,935.42 11,408,886.07 22.46
6,095,018.58 MT
20,316.73 MT
Year
Plant Capacity
DeficitProjected
7/30/2019 Projection of Supply and Demand
32/32
Market Share Supply Unsatisfied %
0.00 0.00 1,207,565.87 6.29
0.00 0.00 1,749,595.09 8.323.00 692,448.19 1,676,248.83 7.26
4.00 1,013,408.30 2,051,463.35 8.10
4.00 1,111,805.47 2,726,313.51 9.81
7.00 2,132,297.57 2,556,141.46 8.39
7.00 2,333,378.51 3,282,453.26 9.85
9.00 3,277,160.24 3,343,136.98 9.18
10.00 3,969,813.22 3,732,022.15 9.40
10.00 4,318,970.08 4,541,476.16 10.52
11.00 5,157,635.69 4,938,494.11 10.53
12.00 6,095,018.58 5,313,867.49 10.46
per year
per day
DeficitZemenTech Corp.
