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PROMISE
Predictability and variability of monsoons and the agricultural and hydrological impacts of climate
change
A 3 year research project funded under Framework 5 of the European Union (grant number EVK2-CT-
1999-00022) For more information see http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/promise
Talk outline
•Goals and structure of PROMISE
•Examples of PROMISE research
•International conference we are planning for 2003
World population prospects …
Source: United Nations Population Division 1998
India predicted to be the most populated country by 2050
PROMISE Partners
Bologna
University of ReadingCIRADCNRMDMIICTPCEHLMDMPIThe Met OfficeECMWFCRCCINECAIITM
Goals of PROMISEPROMISE aims to improve understanding of:
•The potential for seasonal prediction and the benefits that would accrue in terms of the management of water resources and agriculture
•The impacts of climate change on tropical countries, in particular on the availability of water resources for human use and on the productivity of crops and the potential changes in natural vegetation
Links with end-users
•Development of a data archive
•Visits to CGIAR centres
•ICTP workshop (held in 2001)
•International conference to be held in 2003
For more information see:
http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/promise/research/endusers
PROMISE Research and Support
Natural variability and predictability of
current monsoon climates
Assessment of anthropogenic climate changes for monsoon
climates
Impact of climate change on ground
hydrology and agriculture
+Establishment of active links with climate scientists in monsoon affected countries
Development of a database of observed and simulated data on meteorology, hydrology and agriculture
Main areas of PROMISE research
Sensitivity of monsoon variability to sea surface temperatures
Sensitivity of monsoon variability to land-surface processes
Seasonal predictability and natural variability of monsoon climates
Assessment of future monsoon climates
Hydrological and agricultural impacts of climate change in monsoon-affected countries
Impact of land-use changes on future monsoon climates
ERA-40
DEMETER
ERA-40
Examples of PROMISE research
•Development of a hydrological model that can be integrated with regional climate models (GWAVA)
•Development of a crop model that can be integrated with seasonal forecast to produce yield estimates in Senegal (GCH4)
•Development of a large scale crop model that can be combined with GCMs to produce long term forecasts of yields that can be used for planning (HAPPY)
GWAVAGlobal Water AVailability
Assessment
Jeremy MeighCentre for Ecology & Hydrology
(Institute of Hydrology)Wallingford, UK
in conjunction with
British Geological Survey
Overall objective
• Develop a methodology for the assessment of water resources in relation to water demands which can be applied globally
GWAVA Detailed Objectives
• Consistent methodology at the global scale• Representation of spatial variability in water
availability and demands• Representation of seasonal and year-to-year
variability in water resources• Accounting for the real properties of water
resources systems• Tackling problems of international basins
• Combined treatment of surface and groundwater
• Ability to take into account scenarios of population growth, urbanisation, economic development and climate change
General approach • 0.5 by 0.5 degree grid for both water availability and
demands• Linking grid cells to simulate river network
• Models to account for effects of:
• lakes, reservoirs and wetlands
• abstractions and return flows
• inter-basin transfers
• Water demands based on current and projected population and livestock numbers, information on irrigation and industrial use
• Indices of water availability versus demand derived at the grid cell scale
Inputs and data sources• Physical and water resources data
Elevation, River network Vegetation, Soil type Lakes, Reservoirs and Wetlands Aquifer properties
• Climate Rainfall - 30 year time series, Evaporation
• Demand related information Population, Livestock numbers, Industrial
and Irrigation demands
Change in water availability index
2050, taking in to account:
Supply changes due to climate change
Demand changes due to:
increasing population population distribution increasing per capita demands (improved living standards and industrialisation)
-2.00 to -1.90
-1.75 to -1.50
-1.00 to -0.50
-0.20 to 0.20
0.50 to 1.00
1.50 to 1.75
1.90 to 2.00
Examples of PROMISE research
•Development of a hydrological model that can be integrated with regional climate models (GWAVA)
•Development of a crop model that can be integrated with seasonal forecast to produce yield estimates in Senegal (GCH4)
•Development of a large scale crop model that can be combined with GCMs to produce long term forecasts of yields that can be used for planning (HAPPY)
AGRHYMETAGRHYMET
DHC_CPDiagnostic Hydrique des CulturesDiagnostic Hydrique des Cultures
CIRADCIRAD
Champs PluviométriquesChamps Pluviométriques
Crop Water Balance CalculationCrop Water Balance Calculation Using Satellite based Rainfall EstimatesUsing Satellite based Rainfall Estimates
PresentedPresented by : by :Abdallah SAMBA, AgrometeorologistAbdallah SAMBA, Agrometeorologist
AGRHYMET Regional Centre at Niamey, NIGERAGRHYMET Regional Centre at Niamey, NIGERTrieste, June 2001Trieste, June 2001
• Need to forecast the yields of food crops in order to :
• best manage the cereal stocks • control the distribution of food• start food aid in time
• Using water balance simulation to obtain parameters which enable estimation of yields.
IntroductionIntroduction
Water fluxes and their effects Water fluxes and their effects
on agricultural hydrosystemon agricultural hydrosystem
Agricultural Agricultural productionproduction
Agricultural Agricultural productionproduction
Crop Crop transpirationtranspiration
Crop Crop transpirationtranspiration
Soil Soil evaporationevaporation
Soil Soil evaporationevaporation
DrainageDrainageDrainageDrainage
PrecipitationPrecipitationPrecipitationPrecipitation
Capillary riseCapillary riseCapillary riseCapillary rise
LixiviationLixiviationGround water Ground water
RunoffRunoff
ErosionErosionErosionErosion
( )( )
( ( ))
Agricultural Agricultural productionproduction
Agricultural Agricultural productionproduction
DrainageDrainageDrainageDrainage
PrecipitationPrecipitationPrecipitationPrecipitation
Ground water Ground water
Simplification for Water Balance simulation Simplification for Water Balance simulation
(The DHC4 model )(The DHC4 model )
Crop Crop transpirationtranspiration
Crop Crop transpirationtranspiration
Soil Soil evaporationevaporation
Soil Soil evaporationevaporation
FileFile ScreenScreen GISGIS Spreadsheet Spreadsheet PrinterPrinter
METEOSATMETEOSATSatelliteSatellite
DATA BASESDATA BASES PETPET Historical rainfall dataHistorical rainfall data
Stochastic Rainfall Generation Stochastic Rainfall Generation Parameter CalibrationParameter Calibration
n yearsn yearsx stationsx stations
n stationsn stations
AGRHYMETAGRHYMET
RESULTSRESULTSRESULTSRESULTS
Agrometeorological Agrometeorological StationsStations
WATER BALANCEWATER BALANCESIMULATIONSIMULATION
WATER BALANCEWATER BALANCESIMULATIONSIMULATION
Rainfall dataRainfall data
CIRADCIRAD
Examples of PROMISE research
•Development of a hydrological model that can be integrated with regional climate models (GWAVA)
•Development of a crop model that can be integrated with seasonal forecast to produce yield estimates in Senegal (GCH4)
•Development of a large scale crop model that can be combined with GCMs to produce long term forecasts of yields that can be used for planning (HAPPY)
Combined weather/crop forecasting for
groundnut in India
Andy Challinor, Tim Wheeler and Julia SlingoUniversity of Reading
GCMGCM
Timescale
Spatial scale
annual +
seasonal
monthly
daily
Country + district field
Crop modelsCrop
models
Timescale
Spatial scale
annual +
seasonal
monthly
daily
Country + district field
rainfall
groundnut
rainfall
groundnut
Timescale
Spatial scale
annual +
seasonal
monthly
daily
Country + district field
Large area model
Large area model
rainfall
groundnut
Huge Area Potential Peanut Yield (HAPPY!!) model
Pod yield Biomass
transpiration
efficiency
Leaf canopyDevelopment Transpiration
stage temperaturerainfall
Root system RH
Soil water
Calibrating and testing HAPPY
• Calibrate using field/district data. • Test in hindcast mode using ERA-
40 data to drive HAPPY.• Compare predicted crop yields
with observed crop yields.• Re-calibrate HAPPY?
General Circulation Model
Crop model
(HAPPY)
spatial
parameters
Crop model
uncertainties
output
processing
weather
forecast
crop
forecast
Lar
ge a
rea
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Pro
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International PROMISE conference
Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological impacts of seasonal variability and climate change
24th – 28th March 2003
ICTP in Trieste
currently sponsored by EU PROMISE, ICTP, WCRP,
START/CLIMAG
Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological impacts of seasonal variability and climate change
Conference topics
•The impacts of anthropogenic climate change on hydrology, agriculture and natural vegetation in monsoon-affected countries
•Seasonal predictability of monsoon climates and the management of water resources and agriculture
•Data provision for scientists from monsoon-affected countries using the PROMISE data archive as an example.
•Use of seasonal forecasts as an operational tool
•Applications of crop and hydrological model output to decision-making processes in developing countries
•Future of integrated climate/impacts modelling
Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological impacts of seasonal variability and climate change
Planned sessions
1. Seasonal predictability and natural variability of monsoon climates
2. Assessment of future monsoon climates in response to anthropogenic climate change
3. Sensitivity of monsoon variability to land-surface processes
4. Agricultural impacts of climate change
5. Hydrological impacts of climate change
6. Bringing together scientists and end users
Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological impacts of seasonal variability and climate change
Participants
•PROMISE partners
•Representatives from aid agencies
•Climate scientists from developing countries
•Policy makers / people involved with long term planning
•European and American scientists working on PROMISE-related topics
Summary•PROMISE is an interdisciplinary project which aims to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change on monsoon environments
•An international conference is planned for March 2003 which we hope will involve both researchers and end-users of research
•FAO’s involvement in PROMISE and particularly the conference would provide an exciting opportunity for collaboration
Further information
Find out more about PROMISE:
•web site: http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/promise
•brochure – a few copies here also download from the web site
•E-mail or phone me: [email protected] +44 118 9316608
•attend the next annual PROMISE meeting in mid-May in Paris