Promoting Renewable Energy in Maharashtra

Department of Energy Science and Engineering

IIT Bombay

Presentation to Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission, November 10, 2009

India-Renewable Installed Capacity trend

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1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Year

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity

India-Renewable Share in Power

Renewable installed capacity

Renewable generationNuclear generation

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

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9.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Ye a r

Shar

e of

Ren

ewab

ales

(%) Renewable Installed

Capacity

Renewable Generation

Nuclear Generation

Renewable Energy (2008) Installed Capacity

India MaharashtraWind Power 9.66 GW 1.95 GW

Small Hydro 2.0 GW 0.2 GW

Biomass Power 8.0 GW 0.35 GW

Solar PV (grid) 3 MW 0

Geothermal Power 0 0

Solar Thermal Power (CSP) 0 0

Total renewable power 13 GW 2.5 GW

Solar Water heater 1.7 GW (th) (2.4 million m2) Not known

Source: REN21 Renewables Global Status Report-2009 Update

India Renewable installed capacity and generation

Installed Capacity*(MW)

Estimated Capacity factor

Estimated Generation (GWh)

Wind 7845 14% 9621

Biomass Power 606 70% 3185

Biomass Gasifier 86 60% 527

BagasseCogeneration

720 60% 3784

Small Hydro 2046 40% 7169

Waste to Energy 55 50% 241

Solar PV 2.74 20% 5

Total 11360 25% 24380

*as on Jan 1, 2008

Maharashtra Renewable installed capacity and generation

Installed Capacity(MW)

Estimated Capacity factor

Estimated Generation (GWh)

Wind 1948 14% 2389

Biomass Power 95 70% 582

BagasseCogeneration

262 60% 1377

Small Hydro 211 40% 924

Waste to Energy 6.1 50% 37.4

Solar PV - 20% -

Total 2522 25% 5310

*in 2009

Solar resource Area 26.8 km x

26.8 km Nagpur district

Solar insolation 1800 kWh/m2/year

20% capacity factor, plant efficiency 20%

150000 MU annual generation

Renewable Energy Issues Energy Security Energy Access Local and Global Emissions Marginal to Mainstream Incentives for Investors/ Technology Developers Impact on cost of supply to consumers Long term – capability development Employment potential Level playing field between technologies

Renewable Energy Policies

Capital Subsidy Tax Benefits (accelerated depreciation) Preferential Tariffs (feed-in) – technology

differentiated, performance based incentives Renewable Portfolio Standards Renewable Energy Certificates

Power Generation Options

Power Generation

Centralised Grid Connected

Cogeneration/Trigeneration

Decentralised Distributed Generation

Isolated

Demand Side Management (Solar Water Heater, Passive

Solar)

Renewable Energy Certificates#1 Does it provide “stable” signals to investors?#2 Does it promote renewable energy in the state?#3 How do we differentiate between different

technologies ? Do we have multiplication factors based on technology type/ status?

#4 How do we prevent gaming? Can we ensure validation? Monitoring and verification?

#5 Can we extend to smaller grid connected systems? (e.g BIPV)

#6 Solar Water Heaters as “Deemed Generation”?

Variability in REC price (Australia)

Source: http://www.greenenergytrading.com.au/how-are-recs-priced.html

50 p/kWh

250 p/kWh

#1

Variability in REC price (Sweden)

Source:InfralineEnergy Report on REC - October 2009

90 p/kWh

150 p/kWh

#1

Variability of ROCs in UK

300 p/kWh

400 p/kWh

#1

Source: http://www.e-roc.co.uk/trackrecord.htm

Sample REC ratesUK AUSTRALIA SWEDEN ITALY

Price Range of REC($/MWh)Rs/kWh

63-862.9 – 4.0

11 – 490.5 – 2.3

14.6 – 36.40.7 – 1.7

123 – 1955.7 – 9.0

Multiplication Factor Based on Technology

YES YES NA YES

Starting year 2002 2001 2003 2001

Penalty/Buyout $/MWh 65 27 - -

+Instantaneous values

#1

Source: http://www.e-roc.co.uk/trackrecord.htmInfralineEnergy Report on REC - October 2009http://www.greenenergytrading.com.au/how-are-recs-priced.htmlRenewable Energy Country Profiles, Report – February 2008.

Multiplication Factor #3

Source: Renewable Energy Country Profiles, Report – February 2008.The UK Renewable Energy Strategy July 2009

Available REC’s in Australia in 2009 for Trade

Source: https://www.rec-registry.gov.au/getSearchPublicRecHoldings.shtml

Solar (Water Heater +PV)

62%

Landfill Gas 5%

Others 2%

Wind26%

Bagasse + Black Liquor

4%

Food Waste + Wood Waste

1%

Total available 10 million RECs

#5,6

Framework for Potential Estimation of Solar Water Heating Systems in a Country

Country details(Area, Average Weather Data)

Locations where weather data available

Locations where weather data unavailable

Selection of base city

Methodology for potential estimation for a target area

Weather data

End use details for each sub-class

Identification of sectors and classification within each sector

Potential of SWHS in base city

Potential of SWHS in different location

Identification of variables for a different location

Weather data

End use detailsSpatial

Interpolation

Potential of SWHS in nearby area where weather data is not available location

Aggregation for all the locations

Potential of SWHS in the country• Technical potential• Electricity savings

#6

Diffusion of SWH

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Year

Sola

r W

ater

Hea

ting

Cap

acity

(col

lect

or a

rea

in m

illio

n sq

. m.).

.

Actual installed (million sq. m.)Potential 140 million sq. m.Potential 60 million sq. m.Potential 200 million sq. m.Extrapolated Potential (million sq.m.)

Po te n tial = 60 m illio n m2

Po te n tial = 140 m illio n m2

Po te n tial = 200 m illion m2

Estimated Potential in 2092 = 199 mill ion m2

#6

Target areaWeather data, area details

Identification and Classification of different end uses by sector (i)

Residential (1)Hospital (2) Nursing

Homes (3)Hotels (4)

Others (5)

POTENTIAL OF SWHS IN TARGET AREATechnical Potential (m2 of collector area)

Economic Potential (m2 of collector area) Market Potential (m2 of collector area) Energy Savings Potential (kWh/year) Load Shaving Potential (kWh/ hour for a monthly average day)

* Factors affecting the adoption/sizing of solar water heating systems

Sub-class (i, j)

Classification based on factors* (j)

Single end use point

Potential

Base load for heating

Electricity/ fuel savings

Economic viability

Price of electricity

Investment for SWHS

Technical Potential

SWHS capacity

Constraint: roof area availability

Capacity of SWHS

(Collector area)

TargetAuxiliary heating

Single end use point

Micro simulation using TRNSYS

Hot water usage pattern

Weather data

SIMULATION

Auxiliary heating requirement

No. of end use points

Technical Potential

Economic Potential

Economic Constraint

Market Potential

Constraint: market acceptance

Potential for end use sector (i = 1) Potential for i = 2

Potential for i = 3

Potential for i = 4

Potential for i = 5

Model for Potential Estimation of Target Area#6

Load Curve Representing Energy Requirement for Water Heating

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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24Hour of day

Ener

gy C

onsu

mpt

ion

(MW

)

Typical day of January

Typical day of M ay

Total Consumption =760 MWh/day

Total Consumption = 390 MWh/day

53%

Electricity Consumption for water heating of Pune

Total Consumption =14300 MWh/day

Total Consumption = 13900 MWh/day

Total Electricity Consumption of Pune

#6

California enjoys 50% more sunshine But Germany installed 10 time solar than California

Source: FiT for America

RECs (California) Vs FiT (Germany) Comparison

Feed in tariffs Vs REC’s

Price Variability

Incentive to Investor

Market Driven Trade across states

Comments

Feed in Tariff Low High No Exchange Possible

Within State development Differentiation between technologies

Renewable Energy Certificate

High Medium (Uncertain)

High High Gamingposible

Mainstreaming of renewables

#1 Technology Development and Research challenge -Cost Reduction challenge

#2 System Integration/ System Planning challenge – Need for better methods for potential estimation, Impact on rest of grid

#3 Sustainability- Land, Water, Materials, Emissions

Diffusion Curves for wind energy

Year Projection by MNRE Projection by diffusion curve

Values in the uncertainty limit of 5%

Lower limit Higher limit

2007 7000 8700 2000 24800

2012 17500 23000 5800 39600

2022 40000 42900 27400 44800

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Year

Inst

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apa

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(M

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Actual InstallationDiffusion curve Upper limit of uncertainityLower limit of uncertainityForecast Values by MNRE

Potential = 45000MW

a1

a2

a

am

)( PLPdtdP −α

BtAeLP −+

=1

#2

Wind Diffusion #2

Source Installed capacity (MW)

Annual Energy generated(MU)

Annual average capacity

factor (%)

Coal 2970 21230 81.6Gas 424 1945 52.4

Hydro 2187 6290 32.8

Firm central share# 2825 17785 71.9Wind (state + private) 3856 5270 18.6

Other renewables (solar PV, biomass and Bagasse based

cogeneration)

556 1220 25.1

Independent power projects (coal, lignite, diesel or gas

based)

1180 6360 61.5

Assistance from other regional grids

519 2280 50.1

Total 14517 63370 49.8

Tamil Nadu – Grid Details#2

TN – Installed wind power and wind energy generated

#2

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Mean value

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Hourly variation of wind power

Monthly variation of wind energy generated

#2

Impacts on LDC #2

Summing up Long term – capability development, employment

potential for Maharashtra Level playing field between technologies – New

technologies, cofiring, hybrids, technologies at different stages of development

Local and Global Emissions Sustainability – Area, materials, water Marginal to Mainstream – System integration and

planning issues, need for new methodologies Policies to foster cost effective renewable for future

Rangan Banerjee (rangan@iitb.ac.in) Suryanarayana Doolla (suryad@iitb.ac.in) Anuradda Ganesh (aganesh@iitb.ac.in)

Thank you

References Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Annual Reports,

2001-2009 Pillai and Banerjee, Solar Energy, 81, pp. 162-172, 2006. Pillai and Banerjee, Energy, 34, pp. 970-980, 2009. George and Banerjee, Energy Policy, 37, pp. 3693-3700, 2009. Mohit Goyal and Rakesh Jha, Renewable and Sustainable Energy

Reviews 13 (2009) 1395–1405 Anoop Singh, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009)

643–652 W. H. Rickerson, J. L. Sawin, R. C. Grace, The Electrical Journal, Vol.

20, Issue 4, May 2007 InfralineEnergy Report on REC - October 2009 FiT for America – A Report by Greener Dawn Corporation, USA,

September 2009. D Fouquet, T. B. Johansson, Energy Policy 36 (2008). Renewable Energy Country Profiles, Report – February 2008.

References The UK Renewable Energy Strategy July 2009 Summary maps on http://dsireusa.org “National Action Plan on Climate Change”, GOI, 2009 Renewable Energy Global Status Report, 2009 Update, REN21 Draft discussion paper on “Development of Renewable Energy Framework

For Maharashtra for New control period (FY2010-11 to FY 2014-15)” ABPS Infra, October 2009 .

http://www.greenenergytrading.com.au/how-are-recs-priced.html http://www.renewableenergyfocus.com/view/4914/australian-renewable-

energy-crisis-as-rec-price-dives/ 8-November 2009 http://www.mercatoelettrico.org/En/Default.aspx

http://www.e-roc.co.uk/trackrecord.htm http://www.powercapital.eu/PowerCMS/Publications/Opinion/Banding---

Green-Certificates--Renewable-changes-in.aspx https://www.rec-registry.gov.au/getSearchPublicRecHoldings.shtml