Proposal for aWWRP
High Impact Weather Project
Sarah Jones, Brian Golding
Philippe Arbogast, Ana Barros, Aida Diongue, Beth Ebert,Grant Elliott, Pat Harr, Tim Hewson, Julia Keller, Stefan Klink,
Sharan Majumdar, Rebecca Morss, Pierre Pellerin, David Richardson, Peter Steinle, Jenny Sun, Richard Swinbank,
Zoltan Toth, Jian Jie Wang, Heini Wernli, Hui Yu
THORPEX ICSC 1115 - 17 July 2013
Development of Proposal for a 5-10 year WWRP High Impact Weather Project
• Potential need for THORPEX Legacy project on High Impact Weather identified at ICSC10• North American Town Hall at AMS Annual Meeting (Jan 2013)• International workshop to define scope & objectives (March 2013)• Appointment of task team (May 2013)• Task Team Telecons to agree on structure and objectives (Mid-June 2013)• Draft of proposal to WMO for ICSC/JSC (July 2013)• Discussion at ICSC / JSC; Agreement on way forward• Revise proposal for submission to CAS in November
The overall objective of the High Impact Weather project is to:“Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications”
Mission of Project
Builds on THORPEX – what is new?• Focus and scope of project defined by needs of a limited number of specific weather-related applications• Probabilistic predictions at scales relevant to hazards: focus on small time and space scales whilst maintaining relevance of larger / longer scales•Exploit opportunities from coupled high resolution models and develop new observing strategies
Scope and limits of project defined by a limited set of weather – related applications
Scope of Project
Scope of Project
Scope of Project
Research Theme: Predictability and Processes
Predict-ability & Processes
Analysis of processes
Observations
Diagnosis of model errors
Improve understanding of factors determining predictability during High Impact Weather events
Research Theme: Multi-scale Prediction
Enhance multi-scale prediction of variables needed to forecast weather impacts
Predict-ability & Processes
Multi-scale
Forecasts
Coupled Systems
Minutes to weeks
Local to Global
Research Theme: Vulnerability and Risk
Produce more relevant forecasts and warnings
Predict-ability & Processes
Multi-scale
Forecasts
Assess impact of hazard on individuals, communities
and businesses
Learn about their vulnerability
Quantify risk arising from
hazard
Vulner-ability &
Risk
Research Theme: Evaluation
Identify deficits in / grow trust in forecasts and warnings
Predict-ability & Processes
Multi-scale
Forecasts
Vulner-ability &
Risk
Rigorous evaluation of forecasts & warnings of hazards and their
impacts
Define how to measure benefits
of research
Eval-uation
Research Theme: Communication
Achieve more effective responses
Predict-ability & Processes
Multi-scale
Forecasts
Vulner-ability &
Risk
Eval-uation
Improve formulation andcommunication
of forecasts & warnings
Communication
Cross-cutting activities
Vulner-ability &
Risk
Multi-scale
Forecasts
Eval-uation
Communication
Predict-ability & Processes
Joint activities of research topics to realise benefits of the research
Cross-cutting activities
Vulner-ability &
Risk
Multi-scale
Forecasts
Eval-uation
Communication
Predict-ability & Processes
Applications in the forecasting process
Applications in the forecasting process
Seamless from nowcasting to short-range NWP
Automation
Interpretation
Assessment of impacts
Communication
Cross-cutting activities
Vulner-ability &
Risk
Multi-scale
Forecasts
Eval-uation
Communication
Predict-ability & Processes
Design of observing strategiesApplications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies Opportunities from sophisticated high resolution observations
Assessment of local vs. global
Impacts and responses
Quality control
Cross-cutting activities
Vulner-ability &
Risk
Multi-scale
Forecasts
Eval-uation
Communication
Predict-ability & Processes
UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies
Applications in the forecasting process
Uncertainty Understanding
Predicting
Evaluating
Communicating
Cross-cutting activities
Vulner-ability &
Risk
Multi-scale
Forecasts
Eval-uation
Communication
Predict-ability & Processes
Field campaigns & demonstrationsUncertainty
Design of observing strategiesApplications in the forecasting process
Field campaigns and demonstration projectsUtilise data from previous campaigns
Exploit planned activities: Lake Victoria RDP / FDP
T-NAWDEX
Link to TIGGE-LAM
Involve End Users
Cross-cutting activities
Vulner-ability &
Risk
Multi-scale
Forecasts
Eval-uation
Communication
Predict-ability & Processes
Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations
UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies
Applications in the forecasting process
Knowledge Transfer Between scientific disciplines
Between research and operations
Internationally
Cross-cutting activities
Vulner-ability &
Risk
Multi-scale
Forecasts
Eval-uation
Communication
Predict-ability & Processes
VerificationKnowledge Transfer
Field campaigns & demonstrationsUncertainty
Design of observing strategiesApplications in the forecasting process
Verification Linking process understanding, model development, evaluation
Cross-cutting activities
Vulner-ability &
Risk
Multi-scale
Forecasts
Eval-uation
Communication
Predict-ability & Processes
Impact Forecasting Verification
Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations
UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies
Applications in the forecasting process
Impact forecasting Focussing research activities on advances needed to forecast the
impacts
Transfer of Results
Vulner-ability &
Risk
Multi-scale
Forecasts
Eval-uation
Communication
Predict-ability & Processes
Impact Forecasting Verification
Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations
UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies
Applications in the forecasting process
Transfer results and benefits of research back to receptors in an adequate manner
External Engagement
• To-date: knowledge of user requirements present in task team • During further development of implementation plan: Engage with national / international bodies that already engage with users• During project: meet with end users at variety of levels to define user needs and transfer results
Strategies to achieve goals• Engage researchers from operational and academic centres; encourage development of research proposals•Develop linkages with other initiatives –International bodies and activities, WWRP Working groups, national initiatives, Post-Hyogo activities on disaster risk reduction
• Engage communication of scientists with different backgrounds through workshops, conferences etc.• Establish and exploit special research datasets• Support research and demonstration projects• Link to S2S and PPP
Recommendations of ICSC-11Further develop proposal for CAS considering the following: •better define the scope and focus based on a number of prototype applications that engage developing countries• better describe the added value of the project compared to what will be done anyway at NMHSs• further emphasize the project focus on the first few days whilst maintaining the relevance of longer time scales. •recognise increasing global urbanisation, the associated vulnerabilities and importance of “urban” weather •further develop the rationale/motivation for the project •link to WCRP through HIW in a changing climate •Link to important planned projects e.g. nocturnal convection in N. America and associated flash flooding clarify the relationships with other related WMO groups.
Vulner-ability &
Risk
Multi-scale
Forecasts
Eval-uation
Communication
Predict-ability & Processes
Impact Forecasting Verification
Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations
UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies
Applications in the forecasting process
WWRP High Impact Weather Project
The overall objective of the High Impact Weather project is to:“Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications”
Mission of Project
Task Team MembersChair: Sarah Jones (DWD, Germany) WMO Consultant: Brian Golding (UKMO, UK)
Philippe Arbogast (MeteoFrance, Predictability) Ana Barros (USA, Hydrology)Aida Diongue (Senegal, African Regional Committee) Beth Ebert (BoM, Australia, Verification WG)Grant Elliott (Australia, BoM, Forecaster / User Perspective)Pat Harr (Naval Postgraduate School, USA, PDP WG)Tim Hewson (UKMO, UK, Forecasting process)Julia Keller (DWD, Germany, Ensembles / TIGGE)Stefan Klink (DWD, Germany, EUMETNET Obs Programme, Observations)Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS, University of Miami, USA, Data Assimilation)Rebecca Morss (NCAR, USA, SERA) Pierre Pellerin (Environment Canada, coupled modelling) David Richardson (ECMWF, GIFS-TIGGE)Peter Steinle (Australia BOM, WWRP / Mesoscale WG)Jenny Sun (NCAR, WWRP/ Nowcasting WG)Richard Swinbank (UKMO, GIFS-TIGGE)Zoltan Toth (NOAA, USA, Data Assimilation / Multi-scale modelling)Jian Jie Wang (China, WWRP/ Nowcasting Research WG) Heini Wernli (ETH Zürich, Switzerland, PDP WG) Hui Yu (CMA/Shanghai Typhoon Center; WWRP/ Mesoscale WG) Link to CBS/SWFDP: Ken Mylne (UKMO)Links to PPP and S2S: Co-chairs of Projects
Vulner-ability &
Risk
Multi-scale
Forecasts
Eval-uation
Communication
Predict-ability & Processes
Impact Forecasting Verification
Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations
UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies
Applications in the forecasting process