Proposed Predictability, Dynamics & Ensemble Forecasting Expert Team
Richard SwinbankMasayuki Kyouda
GIFS-TIGGE WG, Exeter, June 2013
Contents
Post-THORPEX plansEvolution of GIFS-TIGGEProposed expert teamDiscussion…
33
WWRP structure
4
Legacy THORPEX
4
Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction
Project
Polar Prediction
Project
High Impact Weather Project
JWGFVRWGNR
/MFR
WGTMRWGSERA
PCPI
WGSIP
WGNE
SWFDP
MJO TF
WGDAOS WGPDP
5
WWRP structure and links to WCRP
5
TIGGE – Research focus
The TIGGE project (& GIFS-TIGGE working group) was originally focused on the technical work enabling the establishment of the TIGGE archive dataset. The main scientific aspects of THORPEX were covered by Predictability & Dynamical Processes WG, and also Data Assimilation & Observing Systems WG(s).Following the successful establishment of the TIGGE dataset, the focus of the GIFS-TIGGE working group has shifted towards research on ensemble forecasting. Particular topics of interest include:
a posteriori calibration of ensemble forecasts; combination of ensembles produced by multiple models; research on and development of probabilistic forecast products.
More recently, we have broadened our range of interest to cover improvement of EPSs, including:
representing uncertainties in initial conditions stochastic physics & other techniques to account for model error
Virtuous Circle
Develop,Improve
Evaluate,Diagnose
Ensemble Forecasts
To improve EPSs we need to develop a virtuous circle – best with a single group with focus on ensemble prediction
TIGGE development
Calibration, combination, products
EPS improvement
Time
Evolution of TIGGE & GIFS
GIFS-TIGGE should also be a forum to focus on R&D directed at improving our EPS systems, to help us develop a “virtuous circle”.
We introduced a section of the WG meeting for discussing ensemble initial conditions, stochastic physics & other aspects of improving our EPSs.
We also need to maintain an interest in ensemble verification & links with convective-scale EPS and the new sub-seasonal to seasonal group.
Looking forward -A proposed new working group
The logical evolution of an increased focus on research would be the creation of a Predictability Dynamics & Ensemble Forecasting working group, combining much of the current GIFS-TIGGE and PDP groups.
This new group would provide a centre of scientific expertise on dynamics, predictability and ensemble forecasting that is currently lacking in the core WWRP programme.
Scope
A centre of scientific expertise on dynamics, predictability and ensemble forecasting
Bridge between academic & operational communities Promote use of TIGGE and TIGGE-LAM Scientific issues include
Growth & evolution of errors Stochastic representation of unresolved processes
Short- to medium-range forecast timescales (potentially longer)
Relationship with other teams / groups
Clear linkages with WGNE and other WWRP expert teams
Numerical modelling, ensembles, data assimilation, stochastic parameterization & evaluation all closely linked on weather forecast & climate timescales.
Too big for a single expert team – need a set of more specialised teams.
Providing expert support to WWRP projects (S2S, PPP, HIW, RDPs & FDPs)
Other issues
Development of severe weather products Would fit well into scope of proposed HIW project
Technical management of data archives Ongoing management could be done by a liaison group of
archive centres & some or all data providers. Could report to PDEF team (or HIW project)? Representative
of technical group on ET.
Transition arrangements Work towards merger of GIFS-TIGGE and PDP groups at end
of 2014 New members of both groups chosen for role in new team.
Next Steps
Discuss here and at joint THORPEX/ICSC and WWRP/JSC meeting.
What is the process for approving the new group?