Proposed Regional Programme on CCFS June27 Dhaka

8/4/2019 Proposed Regional Programme on CCFS June27 Dhaka

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By Rashid S. Kaukab

Regional MeetingClimate Change and Food Security

27 June ,2011

Dhaka, Bangladesh


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Introduction to SAARC

SAARC: Climate Change-Food Security-TradeLinkages

Trade-Food Security link

Trade-Climate Change Link

Climate Change-Food Security Link

Climate Change-Food Security-Trade Link

Capacity Building Needs

Proposed Regional Programme

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Countries Contribution of Ag.to GDP (%)

Ag. labour force as %of total labour force

Poverty headcountratio at $2 a day (PPP)

(%)

% ofundernourished

population

Afghanistan 40 59.8 na na

Bangladesh 19.1 45.21 81.33 27

Bhutan 21.9 96.71 49.49 NaIndia 19.0 55.75 75.59 21

Maldives 6 15.33 na na

Nepal 32.9 87.73 77.57 16

Pakistan 20.4 41.33 60.31 26

Sri Lanka 13.2 47.27 39.74 19

Total - 53.7 73.40 -

Economic Overview Agriculture holds a central place in all South Asian economies,

except for Maldives Moreover, this sector employs more than half of the labour force

in SAARC countries, reaching 97% in Bhutan

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SAARC Food Imports and Exports

There is a growing dependence on cereal imports, particularly for

India

The same trend can be obvserved for Live Animals and Meat,

and Marine Products

Marine Products Live animals, Meat andMeat Products

Cereals

Exports Imports exports imports Exports Imports

2005 2009 2005 2009 2005 2009 2005 2009 2005 2009 2005 2009

Afghanistan - - - - - - - -

Bangladesh 407'948 482'869 2'497 18'977 22 116 6'728 7'659 10'526 4750 402'324 762'836

Bhutan - - 1'322 2'396 0 1 5'694 7'706 51 183 11'871 17'037

India 1466 662 1'412'386 19'960 38'625 586'196 1'196'615 2'349 10'434 1'915'272 2986630 2'729 12'952

Maldives 84'115 67'217 3'001 7'677 0 0 8'829 18'518 0 0 6772 14'116

Nepal - 3 - 2'477 531 1'885 4'771 6'808 17'155 28'432

Pakistan 146'657 192'909 1'678 972 22'218 95'061 5'369 11'004 1'100'585 1823217 161370 330'869

Sri Lanka 103 442 179'206 47'401 89'969 355 1'014 4'215 2'581 4'182 5041 198047 305'696

Total 2'208'824 2'334'590 75'859 '161093 609'322 1'294'692 37'955 64'710 3'030'616 17'155 416'924 1'471'938

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Intra-SAARC Food Trade

Despite two decades of efforts at regional economic

integration, South Asia is one of the least-integrated

regions in the world

Intra-SAARC trade in Food is very marginal

Food Exports in 2009 Food Imports in 2009

Share in TotalExports (%)

Exports toSAARC (%)

Share in TotalImports (%)

Imports from SAARC(%)

Afghanistan 55.51 - 7.7 -

Bangladesh 3.38 - 17.85 -

Bhutan 5.97 0.17 14.16 97.39

India 6.12 5.56 3.72 2.1

Maldives 96.51 0.08 20.09 37.25

Nepal 22.57 0.98 11.44 34.8

Pakistan 16.46 0.71 9.42 6.36

Sri Lanka 23.94 0.52 14.23 19.57

Total 7.41 8.02 5.5 5.245


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Relevant Policies

Agreement on the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA)(2006). While this is a good step, all member countriesmaintain a sensitive list of products with no tariff

concessions.

SAARC Regional Strategy and Regional Programme for FoodSecurity (2008)

Action Plan on Climate Change (2009-2011). Prioritizedregional issues related to food security such as overexploitation and degradation of natural resources. SAARC istransitioning from a declaratory to implementation phase,

envisaging itself to play more enabling roles in addressingclimate change. 6


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Climate Change-Food Security Link

The expected impacts of Climate change on food securityinclude:

NEGATIVE

Impact on coastal economic activities: Increased landsalinity and land loss in coastal areas, displacing severalmillion people and severely impacting coastal economicactivities including fisheries

Impact on cereal productivity: 15 to 30% decline ofcereal productivity on average across the region by themiddle of the century and a rise of food prices by 94to 111% for wheat, and by 32 to 37% for rice.

Water stress: 2 to 4% rise in temperature will exposeup to 924 million people to water stress 7


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Trade-Food Security Link

Because of agricultural production shortages, thesecountries are heavily dependent on food imports,which are not sourced in South Asia because of a numberof trade barriers and supply-side constraints.

POSITIVETrade offers the possibility to stabilize domestic prices, to

balance food deficiency and to harness comparativeadvantage

Trade can enhance food security by increasing livelihoodopportunities directly through improved profitability andspin-off and multiplier effects.

NEGATIVE

However, it also exposes a country to prices volatility oninternational markets which can threaten food security. 8


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Trade-Climate Change Link

Climate change may significantly alter trade flows.

Climate change could exert significant impacts on tradeflows, given its expected impacts on agricultural yield.

Climate change can alter existing patterns of comparativeadvantage in trade, e.g a sudden increase in price will shiftproduction patterns as farmers are driven by higher returns.

Trade can affect the environment in both positive andnegative manners.

Trade liberalization and foreign direct investment may bringin new techniques of production that are more energy

efficient. However, trade itself will lead to more GHGs given 9


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Climate Change-Food Security-Trade Linkages

A positive food security-trade linkage to face climate changechallenge can be established through:

clearly aligning trade, environment, and agriculturalpolicies;

understanding the particular food security needs and theimpact of climate change on food security in a country;

targeting trade policy and its instruments to ensure steadyimports in the case of structurally food-deficient countries;

improving export performance to garner resources to payfor needed food imports; and

adjustment of production and trade patterns according toclimate change adaptation and mitigation plans. 10


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An Endowment-Entitlement Framework for Climate Change-Food Security-Trade Linkages

Endowment-Entitlement Equation: A small piece of land, good rainfall, and access to inputs may comprise the

endowment set of a small rice farmer in Bangladesh. She uses these endowments to get her entitlements for

livelihoods. This is her endowment-entitlement equation.

Impact of Climate Change: Climate change will introduce shocks like variations in rainfall, temperature,

flooding etc. into the equation and change it. For example, either less or much rainfall may render her plot of landincapable for rice production and thus reduce the set of her endowments. Even if she continues to have that plot

of land and access to rice market, she may not be in a position to transfer that endowment to her entitlement

due to inability to produce rice.

Impact of Trade: The linkage between endowment and entitlement will also depend on other factors and

here trade can play an important role. For example, trade can offer another set of endowment (e.g., increased

opportunities in manufacturing through Duty-Free-Quota-Free market access for Bangladeshi manufactured

exports) to compensate for the loss of earlier set of endowment of the farmer or use her given set of endowmentto convert into entitlements through a different utilization, e.g., producing crops that are suited to the changed

climatic conditions with a market in the region.

Application of Framework: Application of this framework in a regional programme will allow for robust and

evidence-based research, focussed and targeted advocacy, and contribution to appropriate and integrated policies

and action plans related to climate change, food security, and trade that target these linkages to improve

endowment-entitlement equations.11


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Capacity needs and recommendations for the wayforward

Capacity needs of SAARC stakeholders can be categorizedinto the following broad categories:

Research to fill the existing gaps in the knowledge andunderstanding of climate change-food security-tradelinkages

Knowledge and expertise development to establishand implement holistic trade, food security, and climate

change mitigation and adaptation policies and responsesAwareness-raising and advocacy to widely andeffectively disseminate the relevant information about theimminent challenges, climate change-food security-tradelinkages, and the need for adequate responses.

A forum that brings together the sets of actors dealing 12


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Main Objective

To build the capacity of stakeholders in the SAARCregion to better understand the climate change-food security-trade linkages and design and implement mitigation and

adaptation responses that use trade to improve food securityin the face of climate change challenges. The focus will be onshielding the poor and marginalized from the worst effects ofclimate change on food security.

Specific Objectives

Increasing knowledge on climate change-food security-trade linkages in the region

Increasing capacity of the stakeholders to take advantage

of the positive linkages and develop adequate policies andstrate ies to deal with the ne ative linka es

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Methodology

Collaborative and evidence-based research involvingpartners in Norway as well as in project countries toimprove the understanding of climate change-food

security-trade linkages

Building regional, multi-stakeholder networks to poolknowledge and expertise and to develop integrated policyand programme responses

Maximizing synergies by establishing partnerships withother relevant organizations, particularly FAO, UNEP, andWMO

Emphasizing the regional dimension including of theproblems and their solutions 14


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Activities and OutputsOrganically linked Research-Advocacy-Networking(RAN) activities for:

Identification of climate change-food security-trade issues

affecting the region

Building knowledge base on identified issues throughresearch and pooling of experiences

Utilizing knowledge for policy and programme development

and appropriate legislation

Feeding of information and lessons into other importantprocesses in the region

Utilizing the information and lessons to inform negotiating

positions of SAARC countries in the WTO and other relevant 15


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Expected Outcomes

Expanded body of knowledge on issues related toclimate change, food security and trade

Improved understanding among stakeholders in theregion of the climate change-food security-trade linkages

Greater involvement of relevant stakeholders in related

policy making and implementation

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Activity Outputs Relevant Project Outcomes Relevant Project Objectives

Research Publications Expanded body of

knowledge

Improved understanding of

stakeholders

Increased knowledge on

climate change-food

security-trade linkages

Increased capacity of

stakeholders

Development andimplementation of

relevant policies by the

countries

Networking Project inception

meeting

Annual RegionalMeetings

Regional E-networks

Country National

Reference Groups

Greater involvement of

relevant stakeholders

Improved understanding ofstakeholders


stakeholders

Increased interactionamong relevant

stakeholders from the

region

Better means for the

implementation of

relevant policies by the

national governments17


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Activity Outputs Relevant Project

Outcomes

Relevant Project

Objectives

Advocacy

and

awareness-

raising

Advocacy documents

Web site

Media releases

Annual Regional

Meetings

Improved understanding

of stakeholders

Greater involvement of

relevant stakeholders

Increased knowledge

on climate change-

food security-trade

linkages


stakeholders

Conducive

environment for the

implementation ofrelevant policies by

the national

governments

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Proposed Regional Programme on CCFS June27 Dhaka

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