© OECD/IEA 2012
Prospects for power generation from coal to 2050
Didier Houssin Director, Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology International Energy Agency
International Coal and Climate Summit Breakthroughs in clean coal technologies session Warsaw 18 November 2013
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International Energy Agency
Recent trends in coal markets
Improving plant efficiency
Carbon capture and storage
Contents
© OECD/IEA 2012
Formed in the wake of the 1973 oil embargo with a mission to promote member country energy security
Autonomous organisation affiliated with the OECD
Energy policy and technology analysis and advice
3 ‘E’ pillars of sound energy policy:
Energy security
Economic growth
Environmental sustainability
And a fourth ‘E’ - Engagement worldwide
The International Energy Agency at a glance
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IEA members
Accession countries (Chile and Estonia have begun the process of joining the IEA)
Partner countries that attended the 2011 Ministerial Meeting
IEA Members (28 countries)
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International Energy Agency
Recent trends in coal markets
Improving plant efficiency
Carbon capture and storage
Contents
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Primary energy supply from
fossil fuels
Fossil fuels predominate …
Main sources of electricity
production
Coal is the backbone of power production …
Coal is closing the gap on oil …
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Since the start of the 21st century, coal has dominated the global energy demand picture …
Total non-coal Coal
Mto
e
0
250
500
750
1 000
1 250
1 500
1 750
Oil
Natural gas
Renewables
… with coal alone accounting for 45% of energy demand
growth between 2001 and 2011.
Incremental world primary energy demand by fuel, 2001-2011
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Coal demand
China’s dominance is absolute …
… and increasing.
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Share of power generation in US
Difficult times for coal in US …
… with generation from gas displacing coal-fired power
generation.
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Price for imported coal in Europe
Coal prices reflect oversupply …
… with the trend demonstrating the increasing attraction of
coal to Europe’s generators.
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International Energy Agency
Recent trends in coal markets
Improving plant efficiency
Carbon capture and storage
Contents
© OECD/IEA 2012
Coal is abundant and widely available …
… with sufficient hard coal reserves for 120 years of generation
at current consumption rates.
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before1950
1951-60
1961-70
1971-80
1981-90
1991-2000
2001-10
European Union
GW
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Before1950
1951-60
1961-70
1971-80
1981-90
1991-2000
2001-10
United States
GW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Before1950
1951-60
1961-70
1971-80
1981-90
1991-2000
2001-10
India
GW
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Before1950
1951-60
1961-70
1971-80
1981-90
1991-2000
2001-10
China
GW
Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass and waste Wind Other renewables
… and presents a challenge in many OECD countries compared
with emerging economies.
Ageing power plant infrastructure is a challenge …
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Reduce non-GHG emissions Reduce CO2 emissions *Efficiency improvement*
… those that improve efficiency, reduce specific fuel consumption
and reduce specific pollutant emissions.
HELE CCS
HELE technologies to reduce environmental impact of coal use are …
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International Energy Agency
Recent trends in coal markets
Improving plant efficiency
Carbon capture and storage
Contents
© OECD/IEA 2012
CCS is part of a cost-effective future …
… contributing 14% of total emissions reductions through 2050 in
the 2DS compared with the 6DS. Half of it is CCS on power
generation.
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IEA vision: 120 Gt of CO2 stored by 2050
Goal 1: 2020 Over 30 large projects in
operation in power and across a range of industrial processes,
storing 50 MtCO2 per year.
Goal 3: 2050 Over 7 GtCO2 stored per year.
CCS routinely used in all applicable power and industrial
applications.
Goal 2: 2030 Over 2 GtCO2 is stored per year. CCS routinely used in power and certain industrial applications.
By 2030 CCS needs to be deployed on two out of every three new coal-fired power plants.
By 2050 all new coal-fired power plants will need to be equipped with CCS.
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1. Introduce financial support mechanisms for demonstration and early deployment. 2. Develop laws and regulations that effectively require new-build power capacity to be CCS-ready. 3. Significantly increase efforts to improve understanding among the public and stakeholders of CCS technology. 4. Implement policies that encourage storage exploration, characterisation and development for CCS projects. 5. Reduce the cost of electricity from power plants equipped with capture through continued technology development. 6. Prove capture systems at pilot scale in industrial applications. 7. Encourage efficient development of CO2 transport infrastructure
2013 CCS Roadmap: 7 Key actions
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(1) Decrease generation from subcritical (2) Install CCS* on plants over supercritical
(3) Increase generation from high-efficiency technology (SC or better)
Glo
bal
co
al-
fire
d e
lectr
icit
y
gen
era
tio
n (
TW
h)
Supercritical
HELE Plants with CCS*
USC
Subcritical
*CCS (Post-combustion; Oxyfuel; Pre-combustion CO2 capture)
IGCC
CCS fitted to SC (or better) units.
… to deliver a low-carbon scenario.
Three processes in coal-fired power generation essential …
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EC
D/I
EA
2010
Thank you
