28

PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape

National Organizing Committee Chair: Carmelita N. Ericta Co-Chair: Francisca N. Dayrit Co-Chair: Edgardo G. Pare Member: Ferdinand S. Co Sub-Committee on Scientific Program Chair: Erniel B. Barrios, PhD Members: Liza N. Comia, PhD Alex C. Gonzaga, PhD Shirlee R. Ocampo

Local Organizing Committee

Chairman: Edgardo G. Pare Co-Chair: Norman L. Bundalian Members: Arlene M. Divino – Chief Statistical Specialist, SOCD Rowena R. Escoto – OIC, CRASD Dr. Myrna Q. Mallari – President, Tarlac State University Dr. Tereso A. Abella – President, Central Luzon State University Mercy A. Duaso – Chief Statistical Specialist, Aurora Ledesma L. Morante – Chief Statistical Specialist, Bataan Emma A. Fabian – Chief Statistical Specialist, Bulacan Elizabeth M. Rayo – Chief Statistical Specialist, Nueva Ecija Maria Virginia R. Olveña - Chief Statistical Specialist, Pampanga Corazon P. Bonifacio - Chief Statistical Specialist, Tarlac

Ad hoc Committee Members

Transportation Chairperson: Kenneth Irvin M. Rayo Members: Mark Kevin Evangelista Rodolfo De Guzman Guilbert P. Caligan Robert C. Quicho Randy Remodaro Edel Loui Dayao Roberto Tiamzon Ronie P. Suilan

Communication/Invitation and Coordination Chairperson: Maria Virginia R. Olveña Members: Sara S. Armada Joan L. Cabusao Katelyne Camille C. Vergara Christine Joann L. Gonzaga

Programs and Certificates Chairperson: Emma A. Fabian Members: Roxanne B. Lerio Eza A. Eclarinal Bennhanan Ezriel P. Dacanay Jan Paul Aguillon Reynald P. Cañotal Jessie D. Lobo Mark Kevin Evangelista

Food, Venue and Accommodation Chairperson: Christine Joann L. Gonzaga Members: Eza A. Eclarinal Julie Marie Casela Rhea L. Barrera Bituin G. Mayor

Annual Conference Committee for 2019

Budget, Tokens and Supplies Chairperson: Katelyne Camille C. Vergara Members: Sara S. Armada Joan L. Cabusao Dulce M. Dionisio

Documentations Chairperson: Elna Ruth F. Casasola Members: Joan L. Cabusao Katelyne Camille C. Vergara Julie Marie Casela Eza A. Eclarinal Sara S. Armada Elna Ruth F. Casasola Arlene Z. Torrico Ivy D. Capulong Patricia D. Ramos

Ushers and Usherettes Chairperson: Christine Joann L. Gonzaga Members: Julie Marie Casela Angela Nette Maliwat Karl Emerson I. Domingo Carl Angel F. Doblado Josephine M. Nuguid Sandy Opriasa Sara S. Armada

Registration Chairperson: Bituin G. Mayor Members: Christine Joann L. Gonzaga Rhea L. Barrera Joan L. Cabusao Katelyne Camille C. Vergara

PSAI ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND TRAINING September 4 to 6, 2019

Message

It gives me great pleasure to welcome all participants to the 2019 PSAI Annual Conference. This year’s conference continues to tackle the most recent challenges and opportunities that face the data community in the Philippines. For this year, it also asks the question, given all these challenges and opportunities, where are we headed, PSAI? Thus, the theme: PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape. All of the discussions shall be through plenary sessions. They shall cover the topics: statistical science and big data, International PSAI, PSAI’s role in statistical capacity building. The marketplace shall continue the discussions started in the plenary sessions. We also honor our outstanding young statisticians led by Mr. Jetrei Benedict Benito who won the prestigious 2019 Jan Tinbergen Award given out only every two years during the World Statistics Congress by the International Statistical Institute. I encourage everyone to participate in all plenary discussions and in the marketplace. I thank our co-organizers, the Philippine Statistics Authority and Geodata Systems Technologies, Inc., as well as our other sponsors. All committees and the secretariat, as usual, have exhibited teamwork and collaboration and I am truly grateful to all of them. Cheers to another successful PSAI Annual Conference! LISA GRACE S. BERSALES, PhD President Philippine Statistical Association, Inc. (PSAI)

2

PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape

Message

It is my pleasure to greet the officers and members of the Philippine Statistical Association, Inc. (PSAI) as they gather here at the Subic Bay Freeport Zone for their 2019 Annual Conference. More than taking pride for having been chosen as the venue for this significant gathering, the Subic community shares with you the excitement of being at the forefront of change as our country moves inexorably forward towards our common aspirations of progress and inclusivity. Indeed, this has been the mission of the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority all along—to catalyze economic development in this part of the country and create a better future for its stakeholders. As the PSAI ponders its role in the emerging data-driven culture during the three days of your Annual Convention, we stand with you as partner in national growth. May we bear in mind that the ultimate purpose of development is not merely generating more wealth, but creating a wider range of choices for the people. Have a fun and fruitful stay in Subic! WILMA T. EISMA Chairman and Administrator Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority

27

PSAI ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND TRAINING September 4 to 6, 2019

Membership Chair: Ferdinand S. Co Co-Chair: Jonny B. Pornel Nominations and Election Chair: Ludivinia D. Gador Co-Chair: Ester P. Abitona Publications and Information Chair: Erniel B. Barrios, PhD Co-Chair: Genelyn Ma. F. Sarte Editor, The Philippine Statistician Erniel B. Barrios, PhD Editor, PSAIEditions Genelyn Ma. F. Sarte Search and Awards Chair: Luisito T. Asuncion Co-Chair: Evelyn R. Santos Social Media, Information and Communication Chair: Benjamin Arsenio Y. Navarro Statistics Education Chair: Maria Praxedes R. Peña Co-Chair: Zita VJ Albacea, PhD Co-Chair: Isidoro P. David, PhD Ad-Hoc Committee on Regional Affairs Chair: Jonny B. Pornel

Executive Committee and Officers

President : Lisa Grace S. Bersales, PhD Vice President : Francisca N. Dayrit Secretary : Jonny B. Pornel Treasurer : Josefina V. Almeda, PhD Immediate Past President : Dennis S. Mapa, PhD Working Committees:

Advocacy Chair: Lisa Grace S. Bersales, PhD Co-Chair: Dennis S. Mapa, PhD Annual Conference Chair: Carmelita N. Ericta Co-Chair: Francisca N. Dayrit Local Organizing Committee Chair: Edgardo G. Pare Sub-Committee on Scientific Program Chair: Erniel B. Barrios, PhD Annual Meeting and Christmas Party Chair: Luisito T. Asuncion Co-Chair: Ruthie A. Floresta Co-Chair: Gerardo A. Sandoval Finance Chair: Josefina V. Almeda, PhD Co-Chair: Jade Eric T. Redoblado Co-Chair: Rosalinda P. Bautista Institutional Development Chair: Tomas P. Africa Co-Chair: Romeo S. Recide Institutional Training Chair: Manuel Leonard F. Albis Co-Chair: Rechel G. Arcilla, PhD

PSAI Secretariat Teresita G. Abad, Managing Director Stephanie Rae C. Andres, Secretariat Assistant I Jeffrey B. Sumalinog, Secretariat Assistant II

26

PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape

Individual Members: Tomas P. Africa Regional Consultant Paris 21, OECD Josefina V. Almeda, PhD Executive Director, Philippine Statistical Research and Training Institute Rosalinda P. Bautista Deputy National Statistician Philippine Statistics Authority NCR Lisa Grace S. Bersales, PhD Professor, School of Statistics University of the Philippines Diliman

Carmelita N. Ericta President, Novo Trends PH Romeo S. Recide Former Deputy National Statistician Philippine Statistics Authority Jade Eric T. Redoblado Senior Economist, Center for Monetary and Financial Policy, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Evelyn R. Santos Former Deputy Director Department of Economic Research Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, INC. THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS and OFFICERS for 2019

Members of the Board

Institutional Members: ABS-CBN Broadcasting Corporation rep. by Ruthie A. Floresta Head, Fundamentals and Special Research Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas rep. by Redentor Paolo M. Alegre, Jr. Head, Department of Economic Statistics De La Salle University rep. by Rechel G. Arcilla, PhD Associate Professor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics Geodata Systems Technologies, Inc. rep. by Francisca N. Dayrit Executive Vice President School of Statistics, UP Diliman rep. by Manuel Leonard F. Albis College Secretary Philippine Statistical Research and rep. by Maria Praxedes R. Peña Training Institute Chief, Training Division PSAI Regional Chapter rep. by Jonny B. Pornel President, PSAI Region 6

3

PSAI ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND TRAINING September 4 to 6, 2019

Acknowledgments Data revolution takes center stage and global conversations on this phenomenon have grown at an amazing speed. Right in our midst it has become imperative for the PSAI as a professional association of practitioners in the discipline to assert its role in data science analytics. It is incumbent upon us in the PSAI to respond to the challenge and through this 2019 Annual Conference we launch our initiatives under our PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape. In this annual gathering our National Organizing Committee has decided to shift our focus by enabling our general membership and friends of the PSAI to actively participate in panel discussions and marketplace initiatives. We believe that as we learn from the insights and experiences of experts among us, we are helping in our little way to make our professional association the trailblazer that we hope it would be in the realm of big data and data science analytics. These are undertakings that we cannot pursue on our own without the untiring and consistent support of our co-organizers, sponsors, patrons and donors; the Local Organizing Committee; institutional members and partners for your continued trust in PSAI activities; the CHED for endorsing our Training and Annual Conferences that enable the participation of academic institutions across the country; the Philippine Statistical Research and Training Institute (PSRTI) for making possible the awards for the 4th Best Student Paper Competition; the Philippine Social Science Council for its Conference Grant; the Sub-Committee on Scientific Programs for tirelessly evaluating all the student papers that vied in the Best Student Paper Competition thereby upholding the quality through the rigors of the vetting process; the Resource Persons of the parallel training sessions and the Resource Speakers and Panel discussants for their unselfish sharing of their time and expertise; the Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) for encouraging and supporting the participation of their students in the Best Student Paper competition that confers recognition to research works undertaken by their undergraduate students; and, our participants and guests from the private sector, the academe, the national and local government offices, development partners, and all stakeholders in the development process, for responding favorably to our invitation. To complement the needs of our participants and guests on the merits of the emerging technology and new skills that can equip us to ensure that we do not lag behind, parallel sessions on short training courses and their respective Resource Persons are offered on the day immediately preceding our Annual Conference and these are: (a) Spatial Statistics using ArcGIS and R with Mr. Dennis Dizon of Geodata Systems Technologies, Inc.; (b) Elements of Questionnaire Design with Dr. Josefina V. Almeda of the PSRTI; (c) Internet-Based Data Collection: Fundamentals of Webscraping with Ms. Charlene Mae Celoso of UPSS; and (d) Developing Computer Aided Personal Interviewing (CAPI) Applications Using CSPro and Survey Solutions with Ms. Karina P. Bacuyag of the Philippine Statistics Authority.

4

PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape

We convey our sincerest thanks for the generosity and privileged support consistently extended by the following: Co-Organizers: GEODATA Systems Technologies, Inc. Philippine Statistics Authority Sponsors: Best Student Paper Philippine Statistical Research and Training Institute Competition ABS-CBN De La Salle University Land Bank of the Philippines Patron: San Miguel Corporation Donor: Government Service Insurance System PUBLiCUS Asia Inc. UP Statistical Center Research Foundation Conference Grant: Philippine Social Science Council We commend—

• our young researchers, notably our recipient of the International Statistical Institute (ISI) Jan Tinbergen Award for the inspiration that his recognition brings to our budding practitioners in the discipline, their respective advisers, and the institutions they represent for finding time to join our Best Student Paper Competition; for sharing the results of their studies, and for their diligent compliance with the requirements set by the Chair and Members of the Sub-Committee on Scientific Program.

• our panelists for accepting our invites to grace our panel discussions, for enabling our participants to appreciate the merits of the ongoing data revolution, and for helping us see clearly the role of the PSAI in the growing field of data science analytics and how these impact on our efforts at nation building;

• our members and guests for your participation in our Annual Conference, and for taking bold steps to join our marketplace discussions that help allay our doubts, and to familiarize ourselves with the technology available at our fingertips.

We are certain that our discussions will contribute towards making the PSAI as a professional association that we expect it to be and to take active role in the field of data science analytics; We express our sincerest appreciation to the following:

The Honorable Wilma T. Eisma, Administrator, Subic Bay Metropolitan Development Authority for her warm welcome, her gracious presence, and her inspiring show of support that sets the tone of our Conference and help make it a truly most significant event;

25

PSAI ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND TRAINING September 4 to 6, 2019

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

SAN MIGUEL CORPORATION GOVERNMENT PUBLiCUS ASIA INC. SERVICE INSURANCE SYSTEM UP STATISTICAL CENTER FOR PHILIPPINE SOCIAL RESEARCH FOUNDATION, INC. SCIENCE COUNCIL, INC.

24

PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

DE LA SALLE UNIVERSITY

LANDBANK OF THE PHILIPPINES

5

PSAI ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND TRAINING September 4 to 6, 2019

The Commission on Higher Education (CHED) for continued endorsement of the PSAI Training and Annual Conference for the benefit of academic institutions across the country; The unfailing commitment, dedication and generosity with their time and expertise of the Sub-Committee on Scientific Program under the chairmanship of Dr. Erniel B. Barrios of the UP School of Statistics, and the equally committed members from various academic institutions, namely, Prof. Shirlee R. Ocampo of De La Salle University, Dr. Alex C. Gonzaga of UP Manila Department of Physical Science and Mathematics, Dr. Liza N. Comia of UPLB Institute of Statistics who vetted the papers in the selection process that determined the winning entries in the 2019 Best Student Paper Competition; Ms. Cynthia Marie E. Chua for sharing her talent in designing and translating the theme into visuals that impressively capture the complexity of the ongoing data revolution and the sophisticated technology over the expanse of a cityscape, and the technology made available at our fingertips; and to Honey Margaret C. Andres and Danika Ezra C. Salvahan for invaluable assistance in putting in place all preparations attendant to the Conference;

The readiness of fellow PSAI members at the national and regional/chapter levels in sharing their time and expertise as Session Moderators, Panel Members/Discussants, Rapporteurs/Documenters;

The PSAI institutional and individual members, friends, and colleagues for their unfailing help and willingness to take part in all activities for the success of the Training and Annual Conference; The kind understanding, generous support and cooperation of the officers and staff of the Philippine Statistics Authority at the national and regional levels; the kind response to our call for help and the unselfish assistance that made possible the preparations at the local level under the inspiring leadership of Regional Director Edgardo G. Pare of PSA Region III; for responding favorably to our call for help by heading and mobilizing the Local Organizing Committee (LOC), and, the counterpart support and invaluable assistance rendered by the Provincial Statistics Officers and staff led by PSO Norman L. Bundalian of PSA Zambales Co-Chair of the LOC. And, the usual hard work and dedication that our PSAI National Secretariat never fails to deliver. Thank you very much! CARMELITA N. ERICTA Chair 2019 PSAI Annual Conference Committee

6

PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape

Program of Activities

TRAINING September 4, 2019 - Wednesday

9:00 AM - 5:00 PM

Simultaneous Training on

1. Spatial Statistics using ArcGIS and R (Resource Person: Mr. Dennis Dizon) 2. Elements of Questionnaire Design (Resource Person: Dr. Josefina V. Almeda) 3. Internet-Based Data Collection: Fundamentals of Webscraping (Resource Person: Ms. Charlene

Mae Celoso) 4. Developing Computer Aided Personal Interviewing (CAPI) Applications Using CSPro and Survey

Solutions (Resource Person: Ms. Karina P. Bacuyag)

ANNUAL CONFERENCE Day 1, September 5 - Thursday

08:00 – 09:00 Registration 09:00 – 10:00 Opening Ceremony 10:00 – 10:30 Coffee Break 10:30 – 12:00 Panel Discussion on Statistical Science and Big Data 12:00 – 01:15 Lunch Break 01:15 – 01:30 Updates on PSAI Website 01:30 – 02:30 Plenary: Modeling the Financial Market Indicators with Semiparametric Volatility Model with Varying Frequency Mr. Jetrei Benedick Benito First Prize, Jan Tinbergen Award, International Statistical Institute

02:30 – 03:00 Coffee Break 03:00 – 05:00 Best Student Paper Competition 06:00 Fellowship Dinner Presidents Message Special Number Oath taking of new members Group Photograph

Day 2, September 6 - Friday

08:00 – 09:00 Registration 09:00 – 09:45 Plenary Session: International PSAI 09:45 – 10:00 Coffee Break 10:00 – 10:30 Panel Discussion on PSAI’s Role in Statistical Capacity Building in the Philippines 10:30 – 12:00 Market Place

• Statistical Science and Big Data • International PSAI • PSAI’s Role in Statistical Capacity Building in the Philippines • The Changing Data Landscape: Open Data, Integration of Statistics and Geospatial Information, Data Visualization, Data Privacy

12:00 – 01:00 Lunch 01:00 – 02:00 Closing Ceremony Synthesis Recognition of Co-Organizers/Sponsors Announcement of Winners of the 2019 Student Best Paper Competition Conferment of Gawad Estadistika Award Announcements and Closing Message 02:00 pm onwards Consultation with PSAI Officers Optional Tour

23

PSAI ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND TRAINING September 4 to 6, 2019

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL RESEARCH AND TRAINING INSTITUTE

ABS-CBN CORPORATION

22

PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

7

PSAI ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND TRAINING September 4 to 6, 2019

SEPTEMBER 4–WEDNESDAY

TRAINING September 4, 2019 - Wednesday

9:00 AM - 5:00 PM 1. Spatial Statistics Using ArcGIS and R Resource Person: Mr. Dennis P. Dizon Venue: Verona 1 Participants will learn how to process normal table-based statistical data and convert them

into spatial datasets, which can then be used for map visualization and spatiostatistical analysis, such as cluster analysis and geographically-weighted modeling. Spatiostatistical operations to be discussed shall be performed using ArcGIS and R

2. Elements of Questionnaire Design Resource Person: Dr. Josefina V. Almeda Venue: Rialto 2 A well designed questionnaire is important to a successful data collection. The training on

Elements of Questionnaire Design shall focus on defining the target respondents, selecting the method/s of reaching the respondents, determining question content, wording the questions, sequencing the questions, checking questionnaire length, pretesting the questionnaire, and developing the final questionnaire.

3. Internet-Based Data Collection: Fundamentals of Webscraping Resource Person: Ms. Charlene Mae Y. Celoso Venue: Verona 2 Participants will be equipped with the skills to utilize data from various sources in the Internet.

With webscraping, the task of getting data becomes more efficient than merely copying and pasting. MS Excel and R will be used.

4. Developing Computer Aided Personal Interviewing (CAPI) Applications Using CSPro and Survey

Solutions Resource Person: Ms. Karina Paz Bacuyag Venue: Sorrento The training aims to equip participants with the fundamentals of using new technologies like

smartphones and tablets for more efficient data collection. It focuses on developing Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) applications using tools like Survey Solutions and Cs Pro.

8

PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape

OPENING CEREMONY 9:00 AM –10:00 AM 5 September 2019 Venue: Verona Hall

Doxology OLONGAPO CITY NATIONAL HIGH SCHOOL DANCE TROUPE National Anthem OLONGAPO CITY NATIONAL HIGH SCHOOL CHOIR Welcome Remarks Dr. LISA GRACE S. BERSALES, PhD Introduction of the President, PSAI Keynote Speaker Keynote Address Atty. WILMA T. EISMA Administrator, Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority Represented by Atty. SEVERO C. PASTOR Manager, Labor Department Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority Intermission Number OLONGAPO CITY NATIONAL HIGH SCHOOL RONDALLA

Master of Ceremonies

Mr. Alvin Q. Pequiro and Ms. Arlene Z. Torrico Philippine Statistics Authority

21

PSAI ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND TRAINING September 4 to 6, 2019

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

PHILIPPINE STATISTICS AUTHORITY

20

PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape

DAY 1 SEPTEMBER 5 –THURSDAY BEST PAPER COMPETITION

An Analysis of Factors Affecting the Knowledge, Learning, and Attitude of Filipinos on Philippine History and on Belief on Historical Revisionism

Hernan Gio M. Cortez

Roneth Kristel C. de Gula Spencer V. Espartero

University of the Philippines Diliman

Abstract The adsorption efficacy of two different types of charcoal are explored in treating an artificial pharmaceutical “wastewater” which is salicylic acid diluted in distilled water. The study aims to see if there is a significant difference among the treated samples of activated charcoal and biochar from rice husks. A two-factor factorial design is used where the first factor is composed of the type of charcoals used and the second factor is the varying contact time (one hour, two hours, three hours, and four hours) of the treated samples. There are five replicates per treatment combination, where the amount of the two types of charcoal is fixed at 0.5 grams. Results show that there is a significant difference among the samples treated with activated carbon and biochar suggesting that biochar might be of help in improving cost-effectiveness of water treatment among pharmaceutical wastewater. Contact time however proved not to be significant among its level. It is highly suggested to further explore on controlling a magnitude of factors such as amount of charcoal, pH level, and temperature. Also, it might be of interest to use different types of biochar such as water hyacinths and coconut husks since they are also agricultural wastes produced by the country. Keywords: active pharmaceutical ingredients, biochar, design of experiments, two-way factorial design, analysis of variance

9

PSAI ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND TRAINING September 4 to 6, 2019

DAY 1 SEPTEMBER 5–THURSDAY 10:30 – 12:00 PANEL DISCUSSION ON STATISTICAL SCIENCE AND BIG DATA Moderator: Erniel B. Barrios, PhD Rapporteur: Joan L. Cabusao Venue: Verona Hall Papers: Patricia Algura Geodata Systems Technologies, Inc. Bernard Ahman Ebuña Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Panelists: Patricia Algura Geodata Systems Technologies, Inc. Vladimir Malabanan Zeta Global Angie Tobias-Lozano Digital Transformation Office (DTO) JG Summit Holdings Inc. Brenda Quismorio, PhD University of Asia and the Pacific Katrina Gozun Robinsons Retail Open Forum Awarding of Tokens of Appreciation 12:00 – 01:15 Lunch Break 01:15—01:30 Updates on PSAI Website

10

PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape

DAY 1 SEPTEMBER 5–THURSDAY 01:15—01:30 Updates on PSAI Website

1:30 – 2:30 PLENARY SESSION Moderator: Erniel B. Barrios, PhD Rapporteur: Sara Armada Venue: Verona Hall Video Presentation Modeling the Financial Market Indicators with Semiparametric Volatility Model with Varying Frequency Mr. Jetrei Benedick Benito First Prize, Jan Tinbergen Award International Statistics Institute Open Forum Awarding of Tokens of Appreciation 2:30 – 3:00 Coffee Break

3:00 – 5:00 BEST STUDENT PAPER COMPETITION

Session Organizer/Chair: Erniel B. Barrios, PhD Rapporteur: Katelyne Camille C. Vergara Venue: Verona Hall

1.. Fertility Preferences, Access to Information and Partner’s

Influence as Determinants of the Demand for Contraceptives of Filipinas

Cymon Kayle Lubangco Economics Department, School of Social Sciences Ateneo de Manila University 2. Modelling Sentiment Analysis of Tweets Relating to the 2019

Philippine Midterm Pre-Election Machine Learning Methods Spencer V. Espartero University of the Philippines Diliman

19

PSAI ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND TRAINING September 4 to 6, 2019

DAY 1 SEPTEMBER 5 –THURSDAY BEST PAPER COMPETITION

An Analysis of Philippine Climate Conditions Through Derivation of Climatological Extremes Indices Using Multivariate Techniques

Lara Karmela G. Elio

Graciana Faye T. Domingo Moises Marion R. Silvestre

Clarice Jasper G. Supan School of Statistics, University of the Philippines Diliman

Abstract

The Philippines, a natural disaster hotspot, has been deemed as one of the most catastrophe-stricken countries in the world. It has been hosting to several extreme weather events such as droughts, tropical cyclones and rising sea levels which have been intensified by the worsening global climatological landscape. Through the use of principal component analysis, three main indices were produced where 75.79% of the total variability in the occurrences of climatological extremes in the country can be explained. The three derived principal components focused on the relation of temperature to storm intensities, temperature gradients and sea level behavior. Cluster analysis divided the weather stations into 3 distinct groups which have varying weather conditions. A climatological map was formulated to better visualize the concentration of weather extremes phenomena across the archipelago. Findings of the study could help further strengthen the need to invest in more comprehensive disaster risk reduction and management efforts to address the vast catastrophes brought by climate change. Moreover, the researchers seek to aid in the decision-making process of policymakers in developing programs for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Keywords: climate change, Philippine climate extremes, principal component analysis, cluster analysis

18

PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape

DAY 1 SEPTEMBER 5 –THURSDAY BEST PAPER COMPETITION

Modelling Sentiment Analysis of Tweets Relating to the 2019 Philippine Midterm Pre-Election Machine Learning Methods

Spencer V. Espartero

Kendrick M. Balba Kryshil Arafel T. Escabarte Moises Marion R. Silvestre

University of the Philippines Diliman

Abstract During the election season, every Filipino has their own share of opinions and sentiments on those who want to grab a seat in the government, and are expressed in different platforms available. On the advent of the digital age, social media becomes one of the common platforms that Filipinos use to convey their thoughts and own point of view. It is very interesting to analyze these sentiments although sentiment analysis is very tedious to do manually. With this, the researchers examined different supervised machine learning methods available for an automated sentiment analysis to rise. This study utilizes supervised machine learning (SML) techniques such as support vector machines (SVMs), bagged and pruned trees, artificial neural networks and random forests as methods to assess the predictive ability of modelling twitter sentiments relating to pre-midterm election discourses in the Philippines. Tweets were sourced from four significant pre-election events. Prior to the conduct of the said SML methods, text mining was performed to extract significant and most frequently used words appearing in 1,714 tweets in three languages which are Tagalog, English and a combination of both. It was seen that most tweets had negative or neutral sentiments based on descriptive analysis. Comparing the derived predictive abilities across all supervised machine learning techniques, random forests produced the model with the highest predictive ability. It is noteworthy to mention that predictive abilities had values ranging from 65%-70% in all methods used. The results from this study may aid in determining and deciding on the best model to use and train on automating sentiment analysis specifically on Philippine election discourses that will start in aiding political strategists during the campaign season. Keywords: text mining, support vector machines (SVMs), random forests, artificial neural networks, pruned and bagged trees, 2019 Philippine elections

11

PSAI ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND TRAINING September 4 to 6, 2019

DAY 1 SEPTEMBER 5 – THURSDAY

3:00 – 5:00 BEST STUDENT PAPER COMPETITION

3. An Analysis of Philippine Climate Conditions Through

Derivation of Climatological Extremes Indices Using Multivariate Techniques

Lara Karmela G. Elio School of Statistics, University of the Philippines Diliman 4. An Analysis of Factors Affecting the Knowledge, Learning,

and Attitude of Filipinos on Philippine History and on Belief on Historical Revisionism

Spencer V. Espartero University of the Philippines Diliman

Open Forum Awarding of Tokens of Appreciation 6:00 Fellowship Dinner Lisa Grace S. Bersales, PhD Message PSAI President Olongapo City National High School Special Number Dance Troupe Gordon College PASED Ballo Special Number Ferdinand S. Co Oath-taking of new members Group Photograph

12

PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape

DAY 2 SEPTEMBER 6 –FRIDAY 09:00 – 09:45 PLENARY: INTERNATIONAL PSAI Moderator: Jade Redoblado Rapporteur: Bernadette Joy D. Ular Venue: Verona Hall Audio Visual Presentation from ISI Reynor R. Imperial Philippine Statistics Authority

Panelists: Lisa Grace S. Bersales, PhD President Philippine Statistical Association, Inc. Dennis S. Mapa, PhD Undersecretary National Statistician and Civil Registrar General Philippine Statistics Authority Josefina V. Almeda, PhD Executive Director Philippine Statistical Research and Training Institute Erniel B. Barrios, PhD Professor School of Statistics, University of the Philippines Diliman Open Forum Awarding of Tokens of Appreciation 09:45 – 10:00 Coffee Break

17

PSAI ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND TRAINING September 4 to 6, 2019

DAY 1 SEPTEMBER 5 –THURSDAY BEST PAPER COMPETITION

Fertility Preferences, Access to Information and Partner’s Influence as Determinants of the Demand for Contraceptives of Filipinas

Cymon Kayle Lubangco

Todd Kendall Y. Kue Economics Department, School of Social Sciences

Ateneo de Manila University

Abstract Researches on contraceptive demand either used a qualitative method for analysis, focused on African cases through their respective Demographic and Health Surveys, or were not grounded on economic theory. This paper fills in the gaps by using the control function approach on the multinomial logistic regression and analyzes the Philippines’ case through the 2013 National Demographic and Health Survey. This quantitative analysis is grounded on Brunborg’s economic theory on contraception, and the framework of previous African literature. Results showed that increased education years for women increase her likeliness to use contraceptives. But since her partner’s influence is a pivotal determinant on her contraceptive use, she must also engage in a discussion with her partner to increase her likeliness to use modern contraceptives. Finally, physical visitations from health workers and to health facilities are vital for information access compared to other conduits. Keywords: contraceptive demand, unmet demand

16

PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape

DAY 1 SEPTEMBER 5 –THURSDAY PLENARY

Modeling the Financial Market Indicators with Semiparametric Volatility Model with Varying Frequency

Jetrei Benedick R. Benito

School of Statistics, University of the Philippines Diliman

Abstract A hybrid estimation procedure for semiparametric volatility models with covariates of varying frequency is proposed. Two models are postulated: an extension of the ARMAX model that integrates high frequency data and incorporated into the mean equation (VF-ARMA) and an extension of the GJR model that incorporates the high frequency data into the variance equation (VF-GARCH). In both models, high frequency data was introduced into the model as non-parametric smooth function. Simulation studies illustrate the advantages of postulated models in terms of predictive ability compared to GARCH and GJR that simply aggregates high frequency covariates to the same frequency as the output variable. Furthermore, VF-ARMA is superior to VF-GARCH since it exhibits some degree of robustness to a wide range of scenarios. Applications of the methods are illustrated using indicators in the financial market. Keywords: Semiparametric Volatility Models, Varying Frequency, VF-ARMA, VF-GARCH

13

PSAI ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND TRAINING September 4 to 6, 2019

DAY 2 SEPTEMBER 6 –FRIDAY 10:00 – 10:30 PANEL DISCUSSION ON THE PSAI’S ROLE IN STATISTICAL CAPACITY BUILDING IN THE PHILIPPINES Moderator: Josefina V. Almeda, PhD Rapporteur: Elna Ruth F. Casasola Venue: Verona Hall Panelists: Manuel Leonard F. Albis Assistant Professor School of Statistics, University of the Philippines Diliman Francisca N. Dayrit Geodata System Technologies, Inc. Maria Praxedes R. Peña Chief, Training Division Philippine Statistical Research and Training Institute Jonny B. Pornel University of the Philippines Visayas Open Forum Awarding of Tokens of Appreciation 09:45 – 10:00 Coffee Break

14

PSAI in the Changing Data Landscape

DAY 2 SEPTEMBER 6 – FRIDAY 10:30 – 12:00 MARKET PLACE Rapporteurs: Ana Julia Macaraig Ma. Cristina Lopez Ivy Capulong Patricia Ramos Venue: Verona Hall ISSUES 1. STATISTICAL SCIENCE AND BIG DATA Moderator: Erniel B. Barrios, PhD 2. INTERNATIONAL PSAI Moderators: Jade Redoblado Genelyn Ma. F. Sarte 3. PSAI’S ROLE IN STATISTICAL CAPACITY BUILDING IN THE PHILIPPINES Moderators: Lisa Grace S. Bersales 4. THE CHANGING DATA LANDSCAPE: OPEN DATA, INTEGRATION OF STATISTICS AND GEOSPATIAL INFORMATION, DATA VISUALIZATION, DATA PRIVACY Moderators: Francisca N. Dayrit

Open Forum 12:00 — 01:00 Lunch Break 01:00 — 02:00 Closing Ceremony 02:00 pm Consultation with PSAI Officers onwards Optional city tour

15

PSAI ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND TRAINING September 4 to 6, 2019

CLOSING CEREMONY 01:00 PM - 2:00 PM 6 September 2019

Synthesis Ms. Lisa Grace S. Bersales, PhD President Philippine Statistical Association, Inc. (PSAI) Ms. Carmelita N. Ericta Chair, PSAI Annual Conference Committee Recognition of Sponsors Ms. Lisa Grace S. Bersales, PhD Ms. Carmelita N. Ericta Announcement of Winners 2019 Student Best Paper Competition Conferment of Gawad Ms. Lisa Grace S. Bersales, PhD Estadistika Award Mr. Luisito T. Asuncion Chair, Search and Awards Committee Announcements and Ms. Carmelita N. Ericta Closing Message Chair, Annual Conference

Master of Ceremonies

Mr. Alvin Q. Pequiro and Ms. Arlene Z. Torrico Philippine Statistics Authority

Ms. Lisa Grace S. Bersales, PhD President Ms. Josefina V. Almeda, PhD Treasurer Mr. Erniel B. Barrios PhD Chair, Sub-Committee on Scientific Program