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PT XL Axiata, Tbk. (XL) Corporate Presentation 1Q 10€¦ · Latest official figures Source : Bank...

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PT XL PT XL Axiata Axiata , , Tbk Tbk . (XL) . (XL) Corporate Presentation Corporate Presentation 1Q 10 1Q 10 This document contains confidential and proprietary information belonging to PT XL AxiataTbk., which information may be used only in connection with the business of PT XL AxiataTbk.
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  • PT XL PT XL AxiataAxiata, , TbkTbk. (XL). (XL)

    Corporate PresentationCorporate Presentation

    1Q 101Q 10

    This document contains confidential and proprietary information belonging to PT XL AxiataTbk.,

    which information may be used only in connection with the business of PT XL AxiataTbk.

  • 1

    9.1% 8.4% 8.4% 8.1% 7.9% 7.4%

    2007 Jan-Apr'08 Jul-Oct'08 Jan-Apr'09 Aug'09 Feb '10

    1. Latest official figures

    Source : Bank Central, BPS, The Jakarta post, Antara, Kompas, DRI, Yahoo Finance

    Unemployment Rate (%)Unemployment Rate (%)

    Interest rates (%)Interest rates (%)

    Inflation (Y-o-Y, %)Inflation (Y-o-Y, %)

    ISX and FX RateISX and FX Rate

    Domestic macroeconomic dashboard

    7.00% 6.75% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50%

    6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50%

    13.4% 13.2%13.0% 12.9% 12.4% 11.9% 11.9% 11.9% 11.9% 11.9% 10.5% 10.5%

    Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

    BI Rate Base Lending Rate

    • Unemployment rate per February 2010 of 7.4%1 or 8.59 million

    unemployment decrease from August 2009 level of 8.96million

    • Decrease in unemployment rate reflected economic recovery

    • Inflation driven by price increase of basic commodities

    • Year to date June 2010 inflation is 2.42%. Government

    expects the end of year inflation will still in target range of

    4%-6%

    • Volatile ISX due to global and regional un-easiness (slower

    US recovery, European debt crisis, regional political tensions)

    • IDR most recently strengthened as foreign capital returning

    • Major banks started to lower lending rate

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    May

    4.16%

    Apr

    3.91%

    Mar

    3.43%

    Feb

    3.81%

    Jan

    3.72%

    Dec

    2.78%

    Nov

    2.41%

    Oct

    2.57%

    Sep

    2.83%

    Aug

    2.75%

    Jul

    2.71%

    June

    5.05%

    2,914

    9,083

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    8,000

    9,000

    10,000

    11,000

    12,000

    13,000

    1 Jan 20101 Jul 20091 Jan 2009

    ISX

    FX

    30 June

  • 2

    Positive outlook for Indonesia Telco market externalities

    � Potential restructure of interconnection fee

    � Potential decrease in voice interconnection fee

    � Possible introduction of SMS interconnection fee

    � Change in Licence Fee Charging method expected

    � From # of Network elements to bandwidth

    � XL will obtain second 3G carriers

    � More transparent guidance on infrastructure sharing

    Macro Economy

    Industry/Competition Regulatory

    � Higher GDP of 5.0-5.5% expected in 2010 with YoY inflation at 5%± 1%

    � Global recovery, commodity prices, as well

    as post-election government policies are

    key to sustainable growth

    � Further industry consolidation is expected

    � Potentially creating benignant competition

    � Intense but rational competition

    � Emergence of Data service Mobile Data Ecosystem

    Source: XL, Central Bank

  • 3

    1. UBS penetration x Population.

    Source: Analyst reports

    More stable Telco market expected

    273255

    228

    190

    147

    99

    2009 20122010 201120082007

    Total number of SIMs in the market (Mn) 1

    Potentially ~45Mn net adds in the next two yearsPotentially ~45Mn net adds in the next two years

    +39%

    +9%

    There is still room for penetration growth

  • 4

    XL’s deliberate strategy has produced impressive results

    2008: “Minute Factory” 2009: “Drive value”2010: “Optimize core and lead

    in new growth space”

    The XL

    Strategy

    BUILDING SCALE

    �Affordable pricing strategy to drive

    usage and create addiction

    � Invested significantly to expand

    network coverage and capacity

    � Fast and lean organization to reduce

    cost/MoU

    STIMULATING USAGE

    � Drive value from subscriber through

    disciplined, fact-based approach

    � Focus on quality subs (SWE)

    �Strengthen brand, value beyond price

    � Increase productivity

    MONETIZING USAGE

    � Maximize returns from core business

    � Invest and innovate in future growth

    engines

    �Deliver intentional customer

    experience

    �Prudent capital expenditures

    Subscriber

    (mn)

    32.631.426.0

    2008 2009 1Q 2010

    Gross

    Revenue

    (IDR Tn)

    4.2

    13.912.2

    1Q 20102008 2009

    EBITDA

    margin (%)

    514542

    1Q 20102008 2009

    RoIC (%)

    11.29.73.4

    1Q 20102008 2009

    21%

    14%

    +3% +6%

    +6.3%+1.5%

  • 5

    Our cost and CapEx are under control

    Source: Internal analysis

    EBITDA margin improved…EBITDA margin improved…

    EBITDA

    margin (%)

    … and CapEx generated higher yield… and CapEx generated higher yield

    0.35

    0.41

    2008 2009

    0.15

    2009

    0.26

    2008

    Incr. Revenues/

    Rp CapEx

    Incr. Revenues/

    Rp CapExIncr. EBITDA/

    Rp CapEx

    Incr. EBITDA/

    Rp CapEx

    51

    454242

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    1Q 2010200920082007

  • 6

    Data is a potential growth driverEarly indicators on usage shift from traditional services to Data

    Strong growth in Data subs...Strong growth in Data subs...

    63

    +349%

    Q1 2010

    284

    Q1 2009

    XL data revenue

    (IDR Bn)

    Source: Internal report

    +387%

    Q1 2010

    12

    Q1 2009

    3

    Subs with GPRS (Mn)

    30

    +1,057%

    Q1 2010

    343

    Q1 2009

    ...Usage......Usage... ...And Revenues...And Revenues

    Data traffic excluding

    Blackberry (TB)

    100%

    1H 2010

    61%

    24%

    15%

    2009

    64%

    24%

    11%

    2008

    69%

    24%

    7%

    2007

    61%

    32%

    6%

    Voice

    SMS

    VAS and GPRS

    Shifting revenue proportionShifting revenue proportion

    Usage revenue composition (%)

  • 7

    XL aspires to become leading in mobile data service

    XL AspirationsXL Aspirations

    To have the best business model

    that generates values to

    shareholders (positive ROIC)…

    …With the scale that allows us to

    have sustainable scale advantage

    over competitors

    Malaysia

    31%

    92%

    Thailand

    9%

    97%

    Indonesia

    5%

    60%

    Indonesia is a handset marketIndonesia is a handset market

    Note: Penetration estimate for 2009

    Source: Euromonitor, GSMA Asia Pacific Mobile Observatory

    Handset penetration PC penetration

    PC vs. Handset penetration (%)

    Investment in Data services is to focus on mobile data (handset-based),

    while maintain selective investment on Broadband

  • 8

    Emergence of Data introduces a set of new complexities

    Strong end-to-end content management required

    Active role in managing devices is crucial

    Different skill sets and competencies to manage

    Mobile Data Ecosystem

    Buying process

    Content

    Device

    People and

    infrastructure

    Complex Data Infrastructure

    • Right mix of 2G/3G/ critical

    People

    Network

    infrastructure

    More complex buying process

  • 9

    Summary

    • Positive Telco market outlook

    • Solid macro-economic growth

    • Expected further consolidation in industry

    • Positive and more transparent regulatory changes expected

    • Intense, yet rational competition

    • XL is continuing on its next stage of Strategy

    • Focus on delivering returns from Core business

    • Cost and CapEx in control

    • XL aspires to lead in Data service (as potential growth driver) as usage

    shift towards Data service

  • 10

    Balanced growth and strong balance sheet

    Asset

    Productivity

    Operating

    Profitability2

    Top-Line

    Growth1

    3

    Revenue

    EBITDA

    EBIT

    1Q10 vs. 1Q09

    42%

    92%

    419%

    Net Debt/Equity

    Net Debt/EBITDA

    4.6 x 1.2 x

    3.7 x 1.6 x

    1Q09 1Q10

    RoIC

    Normalized ROA

    Normalized ROE

    11.2%

    6.4%

    27.2%

    5.4%

    1.2%

    6.6%

  • 11

    XL’s 2010 revised guidance

    2010 Old Guidance2010 Old Guidance 2010 Revised Guidance2010 Revised Guidance

    Cash out CAPEX

    At least 15% growth

    Mid 40’s

    USD 400 – 450 Mn

    from internal

    cash flow

    At least higher teens

    At least higher 40’s

    Approximately IDR 4.5-5 Tn,

    of which about 25% for data

    service, internally funded

    EBITDA Margin

    Revenue growth


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