Date post: | 19-Jan-2015 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | fbruneteau |
View: | 717 times |
Download: | 0 times |
PTOLEMUS Consulting Group
Mobile machines - bringing smart interactivity into the world of moving machines
Mobile Monday Brussels
Frederic Bruneteau, Managing Director
7th June 2010
Introduction
PTOLEMUS is named after Ptolemy, the geographer who created the first map of the world
2
Introduction
PTOLEMUS assists its clients, from strategy definition to business development
Our servicesStrategy definition
including business plan development, board coaching and
support
Strategic due diligence and market assessment
Innovation management including product & services
development and launch
Business development including response to RFPs
Our areas of expertisePositioning / Location enablement
Navigation
Location-based content & services
e.g. maps, traffic, fuel prices, speed cameras, weather, parking, etc.
Telematicse.g. connected car, fleet
management, PAYD, road charging, e-call
Intelligent transport systems
Mobile content and social networking, e.g. application stores, content sourcing, crowd-sourcing
M2M
Connectivity (sourcing, MVNO, ESP, etc.)
3
Smart machines
We will focus today on mobile, connected, machines
4
MOBILE NON-MOBILECONNECTED
NON-CONNECTED
INDIVIDUALS MOBILE MACHINES MACHINES
Cars, motorbikes, bikes, airplanes, ships, trucks, light vehicles, building equipment,
farming equipment...
Vending machines, meters, digital
photoframes, printers, etc.
Mobile phones, PNDs, cameras, game consoles, etc.
IT
EQUIPMENT
PC, working stations, servers, etc,
NON-CONNECTEDToday's focus
PTOLEMUS area of focus, GEO-CONNECTED MOBILITY
Smart machines
In which industries will mobile M2M develop?
5
Transportation & logistics Retail & distribution Hospitality
Automotive Energy & mining Construction
Emergency services Health Surveillance & security
Consumer
Smart machines
Machines are dumb
Most machines cannot be considered as smart
• Can do only one thing well
• Do not listen
• Do not speak
• They are often too slow
• Have limited processing power
• They do not understand us
• They do not adapt to us, we adapt to them
• Do not change their behaviour i.e. do not learn / repeat the same errors
6
Smart machines
The best of mobile handsets for M2M
However, machines are starting to follow the path of our most important machine, our mobile phone
• Our mobile phones hold a growing part of who we are: they know when we get up and go to bed, who we call and talk to, what is our diary
• This growing intelligence is spreading to more and more objects, from cars to fridges to lampposts
• The mobile phone brings to the M2M industry:
- Miniaturisation,- Unexpensive modules / smart cards- Storage capacity- Standards and economies of scale - Improved battery life- Profitable 2G networks and
worldwide coverage
7
We appreciate
Smart machines
Machines prefer
Mobile machines are not like us
8
1. Splashy, highly luminescent screens
2. Interaction with other human beings
3. To change our electronic devices every 2 years
4. Beautiful user interfaces
5. To visit a doctor when we are ill
6. Spontaneous gestures and contacts
7. To spleep at least 8 hours a day
1. To avoid displays, which consume power
2. As little interaction as possible to avoid consuming data bundle
3. To stay alive for 10-30 years
4. Straightforward, remote interfaces
5. Remote diagnosis and maintenance
6. Automated responses and processes
7. To be active 24/7
WE LIKE NEW, ORIGINAL AND EMOTIONAL THINGS
THEY LIKE HIGHLY EFFECTIVE, DURABLE AND COLD SYSTEMS
Smart machines
Sources: Cisco, PTOLEMUS
Despite a common belief, machines will not consume most of the mobile network bandwidth
9
Machines
Digital connected photoframes,
which consume 10x as much as a mobile phone, are
the exception
0
20
40
60
80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
10
20
30
40
Smart machines
Sources: PTOLEMUS, M2M Magazine
Active wireless M2M SIM cards in Europe
Of the 16 billion machines in Europe, probably 5 billion are mobile, so M2M is clearly about volumes
10
In millions
What is driving volumes?
• Fast decreasing cost of 2G network (GPRS / EDGE) connectivity
• Fast decreasing cost of data-only roaming tariffs
• Fast decreasing cost of GSM data modules
• Fast decreasing cost of GPS chipsets
• Decreasing cost of SIM cards
• Key projects, often regulatory-driven (eCall, opening of electricity market, etc.)
Penetration rate of total machines: from 0,13% in 2010 to 0,38% in 2014!
Number of connectionsNumber of machines
In billions
Smart machines
Machines are becoming (much) smarter
11
Microprocessors
They can reflect...
MEMS
They can feel...
A-GPS SIM cards
They will know where they are
SIM cards
They can speak...
Multi-bearer connected modules
Smart machines
Source: PTOLEMUS
The evolution of species
12
Low HighTotal solution intelligence
Local device
intelligence
High
Low
Connected PND
Connected car
Smartphone
Connected plug
Die-cutting machine
Connected photoframe
Connected train
WiFi router
Connected copier
Parking metre
Tractor
Airplane
Fixed phone
Laptop
Connected truck
Connected vending machine
Server
OvenTraffic light
Air conditioning
system
Elevator
Layering machine
Fridge
Lawn mower
Hairdryer
Washer
Toaster
Connected watchConnected
videocamera
Cash register
#
An increasing number of bearers are available
Smart machines
Key factors of selection
However, this connected intelligence will not always come from the cellular network
• ADSL / cable / fibre can work when a synchronization is possible and when large data exchange is required
• WiFi can also provide unexpensive connectivity
• Bluetooth
• RFID is well adapted to logistics and industrial requests
• GPRS, 3G and soon LTE
13
• Amount of data exchanged
• Possibility of synchronization?
• Regular or bursty data exchange
• Cost
• Availability of economic modems and / or devices
• Ability to integrate with vertical application
• Supplier competition
• Sustainability of suppliers
Smart machines
There is someone to talk to in the car!
At last, machines are starting to talk to us... and to listen
• Text-to-speech: the device provide voice route guidance, reducing user distraction
• Speech recognition enables the user to indicate his destination for an increasingly large number of operations
14
Garmin embedded device for Citroën
Smart machines
Machines are our friends
Machines are even helping us when we are in trouble
• Peugeot launched a joint eCall / B-call service in 2003, starting with high end models.
• It now has over 800 000 cars equipped with the functionality.
• Since 2003, roadside assistance has been provided 3 500 times, including 2 000 times for an automated emergency call.
• Peugeot recently decided to broaden the scope of the service by pricing Peugeot Connect at only €290 and making it accessible to entry-level cars such as 207 and 308.
• The service provides assistance in local language on a 24/ 7 basis. It is now available in 10 countries.
15
PSA's eCall system
Smart machines
Source: TomTom
Machines can now learn from the same machines
• With IQ Routes, TomTom uses historical speed data to provided improved routing
• This data has been generated by millions of PNDs in last 3 years - connected through TomTom HOME (i.e. DSL / cable)
• TomTom devices have brought 800 billion measurements
• Rather than using estimated speeds, TomTom devices use these actual speed profiles to route drivers
16
Itinerary based on estimated speeds
This itinerary actually lasts 29 minutes
The shortest itinerary at this time takes actually 26 minutes
Smart machines
Progress towards the connected car is a unique opportunity for wireless M2M
17
2013 estimated revenues for selected telematics markets (Europe, € in millions)
•The connected car vision is about to become a reality
•Telematics vendors can address new multi-billion market opportunities- Embedded in-car
navigation- Roadside assistance- Fleet / asset tracking- Car insurance (PAYD)
•Connected solutions can encroach on significant existing industries
The wireless M2M industry will benefit from a number of
key projects
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
Portable navigation
Embedded navigation
Fleet & tracking
Roadside assistance
Car Insurance
Road charginge-Call
0
18.000
13.000
7.700
0
1.654460 3.7503.000
9.500
1.5001.0702.5482.047
ConnectedNon-connected
126.000
Smart machines
Smart mobile machines are coming
• Boundaries between "our" machines and other machines are blurring
• The path towards connecting 16 billion machines is just beginning- Machines are becoming part of an ubiquitous intelligent network- Growth potential is enormous
• Contrary to mobile, it will not be about ARPUs but about volumes (at least at the connectivity level)
• The ability to show and align all players towards clear and large vertical revenue opportunities such as eCall is key to generate these volumes
• In the end, we expect fixed M2M / telemetry to become a particular case of wireless M2M
18
Mobile Monday offer
PTOLEMUS will publish next week its 2010 European Location Study
• 150 pages of our expertise about the location industry, built on
• Interviews with over 100 executives from all sides of the industry, from Admob to Yahoo!,
• Over 6 months of desk research and primary research, notably an online survey,
• A detailed market model so as to combine strategic and technology analysis with hard figures
19
If you wish to receive the free version, or want to have more information, just give me your business card after the conference
PTOLEMUS Consulting GroupS t r a t e g i e s f o r M o b i l e C o m p a n i e s
Brussels - Paris - [email protected] w w. p t o l e m u s . c o m
Frederic BruneteauManaging [email protected]: PTOLEMUS