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Transition management for sustainability
Derk LoorbachMelbourne, 10-6-2010
Derk LoorbachMelbourne, 10-6-2010
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
SustainabilityTransitionsGovernanceInnovation
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
• Complex, long-term and uncertain– no quick fixes or only technological solutions
• Embedded in societal structures– optimization through existing solutions insufficient
• Many different actors involved– contested and ‘ill-structured’
• Difficult to ‘manage’– Examples: energy, mobility, agriculture, education, health care, water
management, housing etc.
Unsustainability lock-in requires transitions
Persistent problems of sustainability
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transitions
fundamental change of structure, culture and fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in a societal (sub)systempractices in a societal (sub)system
– culture:culture: collective set of values, norms, collective set of values, norms, perspectives (shared perspectives (shared orientation), paradigms orientation), paradigms
– structure:structure: physical infrastructure, economic physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure, infrastructure, institutions, rules, regulations, collective institutions, rules, regulations, collective routinesroutines
– practices:practices: behaviour, operation, implementationbehaviour, operation, implementation
Shared discourse and language for multi-actor Shared discourse and language for multi-actor learning and innovation processeslearning and innovation processes
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition levelsMacro-level: landscapeautonomous trends, paradigms, slow changes
Meso-level: regimeDominant structure, culture and practices
Micro-level: niches innovative ideas, projects, technologies, niche actorsBased on Geels and Kemp, 2001
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Multiple Phases
Predevelopment
Stabilization
time
Societal development
Acceleration
Take-off
From: Rotmans et al, 2000
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Why do transitions fail?
• Institutional fragmentation and miscoordination
• Dominant players have too many interests to defend and don’t want to change the rules drastically
• Technological and social lock-in and path dependencies
• Lack of coherence in thought and strategy of sustainability initiatives
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Sustainability as guiding orientation
• Inherently ambiguous, contested and uncertain
• Basis for dialogue, competition and innovation
• It is about the process of sustainable development rather than the end goal
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Inevitable?
• Number of landscape developments pressure regimes– Resources, climate issues, economic crises, …
• Number of alternatives becoming competitive– Renewables, ecological approaches, community initiatives,
new financial models, …
• Regimes start to defend, get into crises or open up– CCS, Desalination plants, ‘Keep mining Strong’, …
Indicators for transitions approaching
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Possible transition pathways
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition phases
Sustainable society?
health care
energywaste
waterconstruction
mobility finance
predevelopment
take-off
acceleration
stabilisation
Based on Rotmans et al, 2001
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition governance
• long-term thinking as the basis for short term policylong-term thinking as the basis for short term policy
• think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-different levels (multi-level)level)
• learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)
• orient policy towards system innovation besides orient policy towards system innovation besides system improvementsystem improvement
• keeping options open (wide playing field)keeping options open (wide playing field)
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition approach
• acknowledge that there is a persistent problemacknowledge that there is a persistent problemshared problem perceptionshared problem perception
• thethe solution does not exist solution does not exist transform problem into visionary challengetransform problem into visionary challenge
• define guiding principles and evolving transition define guiding principles and evolving transition agendaagendamultiple futures with multiple pathways and optionsmultiple futures with multiple pathways and options
• start portfolio of experiments into the same directionstart portfolio of experiments into the same directionpostpone choices till enough has been learnedpostpone choices till enough has been learned
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Governance framework
Strategic(culture, worldviews, norms and values)
Tactical(institutions, networks, structures)
Operational(practices, innovations,niches)
Influencing learning
and reflection
Influencing changes in structures
Influencing changes in culture and discourse
Influencing innovation dynamics
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
learninglearning
experimentsexperiments
policypolicy
arenasarenas
TransitionGovernance
TransitionGovernance
sectoral
regional
neigbourhood
transitioncoalitions
transition agenda
transitionprograms
technical
social
economic
learning strategies
reflexive evaluation
transition monitoring
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
society
Transition arenaRegular policy arena
- Short term- Peloton - Incremental change- Problem- and goal oriented
- Long term- Frontrunners - System-innovation- Problem- and goal searching
Transition arenas
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition management practices
• In the Netherlands– Health care, building, energy, water,
regional and local
• Internationally– Belgium, Canada, Japan
• In international research– European network, Canada, Japan, US,
Australia
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transitionagenda Building
• 1 year arena ‘shadow’ process– Small core of frontrunners within larger innovation
network
• Shared narrative and language– Framing the need for transition– Sketching desired future direction and pathways
• Transitionizing the regime– Interaction with regime board focused on damage
control– Gradually involving innovative regime actors
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Shared problem definition
• Building process traditional and supply driven
• Lowest price dominant orientation
• Business models outdated
• Negative incentives for sustainability and innovation
• Self-organising capacity absent
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Future orientation and pathways
Building sector produces social added value:– Carbon neutrality– Urban renewal– Energy transition– Accessibility – Liveability – Adaptability and resilience
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Experiments, stepping stones and business cases
• Roof transition• Floating cities• Neigbourhood development companies• Sustainable infrastructure corporations• Sustainable purchasing• Sustainable finance model• …
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Impact?
• Agenda adopted by regime board– Transition platform established by
ministries• Experiments started
– And concrete regulations influenced• Narrative/discourse spreading
– Accelerated by financial crisis• Energy neutral built environment 2020
– 140 billion Euros investment and returns
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Local arena Oud-Charlois
• Context: Pact op Zuid– 1 billion Euro investment in battling social
problems – Reframing program as transition program
• Transition arena experiment in deprived neighbourhood (wijkarena)– Local citizens, entrepreneurs, organisations
• Close cooperation policy-science in transition team– ‘transitionizing’ policy through coproduction
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Core challenge
• Community empowerment– Developing self-organisational capacity– Paradigm shift towards self-awareness– Articulating community needs
• Policy transition– Participation in societal process– Toward integrative cooperation– Developing process governance capacity
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Emerging agenda and action
• Core narrative: welcoming neigbourhood– Cultural ‘islands’ produce anonymous public space– Feeling at home implies responsibilities and space
• Practical orientation– Community planning for local square– ‘bridge builders’– Collaborative youth– Physical strategy– Greening the neighbourhood– …
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Different but similar…
• Transition concepts as mediating frame and language
• Discourse as coordinating force in networks
• Process as means to indirectly influence action
• (Unpredictable) actions follow from open arenaprocess
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transitionizing…
• Transition teams: domain experts, transition experts, problem owners
• ‘Managing’:– Analysis (structuring substance in terms of transitions)– Facilitation (create space, support process)– Structuration (discussion, actions) – Selection (actors, experiments)– Stimulation (discussion, competition, cooperation)
• Mediating between regular and transition policy– Gradually and strategically engaging with regime as
narrative and network get stronger
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
10 years transition management
key process lessons
• Relevance of context• Space for frontrunners • Empowering frontrunners is key to a
transition process • Composition of a transition arena• The regime-niche dynamic• Indirect impact and results of a
transition process
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
10 years transition management
key scientific lessons
• Society as laboratory• Role of rersearchers• Need for engaged research• Inter- and transdisciplinarity• Struggle with disicplines• Uncertainties and need for proactivity• Difficulties of normative science
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition management 2.0
• New phase of societal transitions (take-off/acceleration)
– Chaotic, reorganisation, counter-forces, power and politics
– From variation to selection and institutional change– From arenas to public/political debate– From ‘shadow’ to mainstream– From interdisciplinary to also disciplinary
From build-up to breakdown and breakthrough
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
TM: evolving theory and practice
Monitoring,
evaluating and
adapting
Developing sustainability images, coalitions and joint transition-agendas
Problem structuring, envisioning and
organizing transition-arenas
Mobilizing actors and transition-
experiments
TM 1.0Creating space and
convergenceArenas,
experimentsDiscourse and
culture
Monitoring,
evaluating and
adapting
Developing sustainability images, coalitions and joint transition-agendas
Problem structuring, envisioning and
organizing transition-arenas
Mobilizing actors and transition-
experiments
TM 2.0Focus on
breakthroughsInstitutions for
transitionUpscaling and
structural change
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition management 2.0
• Basic tenets and framework guide experimental governance development
• In predevelopment: building niche-regimes– Visions, experiments, agenda’s & reflection inform one another
• Creating societal pressure on regime, and seducing regime actors to participate– Building up new discourse, institutions and alternatives
• New strategies developing for – Breakdown: ‘Transitionizing’ regular policy– Breakthrough: TM instruments 2.0 (laws, institutions, regulatory
freezones, financial restructuring)
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transitionizing Melbourne?
• Core challenges– Greyfields, Water sensitive cities, Mobility, Demographic
growth, Energy,(social/cultural …?)
• Transition support base– Large sustainability community, scientific expertise,
innovative niches, pragmatic culture
• Possible barriers– Policy and science culture, too strong landscape
developments, skepticism and vested interests
Need for engagement, creativity and translation
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Thank you for your attention
For more information and publications:loorbach@fsw.eur.nlwww.drift.eur.nlwww.ksinetwork.orgwww.sustainabilitytransitions.com