Public Opinion and Public Opinion and Political SocializationPolitical Socialization
Three Broad Classes
• Inputs– Culture– Information– Public Opinion
• Institutions– Branches of Government– Parties/Interest Groups– Rules of the game
• Outputs– Policies– Conditions– Outcomes
Inputs Institutions Policies
Public OpinionPublic Opinion
What the public thinks about a particular What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at some point in issue or set of issues at some point in time. time.
V.O Key- any attitudes the public has that V.O Key- any attitudes the public has that the government would be wise to heedthe government would be wise to heed
Opinions held by the public that may have Opinions held by the public that may have an impact on the political processan impact on the political process
Public OpinionPublic Opinion
Attitudes towards specific issues/policiesAttitudes towards specific issues/policies E.g. War in Iraq, social security reformE.g. War in Iraq, social security reform
Attitudes about state of the nationAttitudes about state of the nation E.g. Important problems, state of the economyE.g. Important problems, state of the economy
Attitudes towards officeholdersAttitudes towards officeholders Presidential approvalPresidential approval
Attitudes towards the governmentAttitudes towards the government
Attitudes towards specific groupsAttitudes towards specific groups
Public OpinionPublic Opinion
Individual and collective propertyIndividual and collective property
2 key elements2 key elements Attitude directionAttitude direction Salience/importanceSalience/importance
A function of both long and short term A function of both long and short term factorsfactors
IdeologyIdeology
Fairly consistent set of ideasFairly consistent set of ideas
Interrelation between more specific attitudesInterrelation between more specific attitudes
Only Some people think “ideologically”Only Some people think “ideologically” More knowledgeableMore knowledgeable More involvedMore involved
Liberal-ConservativeLiberal-Conservative
~20% Conservative~20% Conservative
~30% Liberal~30% Liberal
~50% Moderate~50% Moderate
IdeologyIdeology
What distinguishes ideology?What distinguishes ideology?
Attitude towards government Attitude towards government intervention/individual libertyintervention/individual liberty
Attitude towards change/pastAttitude towards change/past
Attitudes towards social conventions?Attitudes towards social conventions?
Public OpinionPublic Opinion
Stable/Malleable?Stable/Malleable?The wonder is that they (the people) so The wonder is that they (the people) so seldom err as they do; beset as they seldom err as they do; beset as they continually are by the wiles of parasites continually are by the wiles of parasites and sycophants, by the snares of the and sycophants, by the snares of the ambitious, the avaricious, the desperate” ambitious, the avaricious, the desperate” Hamilton Federalist 71Hamilton Federalist 71
Madison and demagoguesMadison and demagoguesEvidence for some of eachEvidence for some of each
Political SocializationPolitical Socialization
Learning process by which people acquire Learning process by which people acquire their political ideas and valuestheir political ideas and values
Ecology->Culture->Socialization-Ecology->Culture->Socialization->Personality->Behavior (Triandis 1994)>Personality->Behavior (Triandis 1994)
Social Learning TheorySocial Learning Theory
American Political Culture(s)American Political Culture(s)
Some commonalitiesSome commonalities
ElazarElazar
3 Sub Cultures3 Sub Cultures IndividualisticIndividualistic MoralisticMoralistic TraditionalisticTraditionalistic
Agents of Political SocializationAgents of Political Socialization
The FamilyThe Family
EducationEducation
RaceRace
ReligionReligion
ClassClass
Peer groupsPeer groups
Long term influenceLong term influence
ValuesValues
Somewhat corrupted termSomewhat corrupted term
EqualityEquality
ToleranceTolerance
FreedomFreedom
Protestant work ethic/deservingnessProtestant work ethic/deservingness
Meritocracy Meritocracy
Which values in which situations?Which values in which situations?
What Moves Public Opinion?What Moves Public Opinion?
Real world events (wars, economic Real world events (wars, economic factors, various salient issues)factors, various salient issues)
Elite DiscussionElite Discussion
Politics (Campaigns, speeches, etc)Politics (Campaigns, speeches, etc)
The MediaThe Media
Public opinion itselfPublic opinion itself
Real World EventsReal World Events
Many Factors Many Factors influence presidential influence presidential ApprovalApproval
Here- Uptick around Here- Uptick around start of warstart of war
As war progresses, As war progresses, decreased support.decreased support.
Elite DiscourseElite Discourse
Can Move Public OpinionCan Move Public Opinion
Only effective when elites have one Only effective when elites have one messagemessage
When Multiple Messages, citizens fall When Multiple Messages, citizens fall back to original opinionsback to original opinions
Elite DiscourseElite Discourse
E.g. VietnamE.g. Vietnam
Early- Most Elites Support WarEarly- Most Elites Support War More Media exposure-> More supportMore Media exposure-> More support MainstreamingMainstreaming
Late- Divided Elite OpinionLate- Divided Elite Opinion Some Hawks, some DovesSome Hawks, some Doves Opinion Depends on previousOpinion Depends on previous PolarizationPolarization
Public Opinion Itself Public Opinion Itself
Public opinion widely reportedPublic opinion widely reported
May cause people to change mindMay cause people to change mind Bandwagon effectBandwagon effect Reconsider reasonsReconsider reasons
Example- Health care 1994Example- Health care 1994 Large majority of Americans satisfied with Large majority of Americans satisfied with
own healthcareown healthcare Large majority think most people get bad careLarge majority think most people get bad care
Measuring Public OpinionMeasuring Public Opinion
PollingPolling
Telephone SurveysTelephone Surveys
Relatively Small SamplesRelatively Small Samples
Random AssignmentRandom Assignment
Margin of errorMargin of error
Types of PollsTypes of Polls
TelephoneTelephone
In PersonIn Person
Exit PollExit Poll
Tracking PollTracking Poll
Shortcomings of PollsShortcomings of Polls
Accuracy?Accuracy?
Social DesirabilitySocial Desirability
Question wordingQuestion wording
Declining Response ratesDeclining Response rates
The Ugly- Literary Digest PollThe Ugly- Literary Digest Poll
1936 Election1936 Election
Over 1 Million RespondentsOver 1 Million Respondents
Predicts Alf Landon WinPredicts Alf Landon Win
Problem- Selecting ParticipantsProblem- Selecting Participants
Problem- Low response rateProblem- Low response rate
Problem- Too far in advance of electionProblem- Too far in advance of election
Polling and DemocracyPolling and Democracy
Verba- Allows voices to be heard that Verba- Allows voices to be heard that would not otherwisewould not otherwise
Allows greater detail on wishes of public Allows greater detail on wishes of public than elections would. than elections would.
Dryzek- Empowers status quoDryzek- Empowers status quo
Does not allow spontaneous expression of Does not allow spontaneous expression of opinionopinion
The Uses Of PollsThe Uses Of Polls
The mediaThe media
Election ForecastingElection Forecasting
By the publicBy the public
By politiciansBy politicians To inform policyTo inform policy To sell policyTo sell policy
By Interest groupsBy Interest groups
Public Opinion and Public Opinion and RepresentationRepresentation
Large shifts in opinion -> changes in policyLarge shifts in opinion -> changes in policy
District level Congruence in some policy District level Congruence in some policy domainsdomains Strongest in states with referendumStrongest in states with referendum
Public Opinion and Public Opinion and RepresentationRepresentation
Can reign in lobbyistsCan reign in lobbyistsWhen is public opinion influential?When is public opinion influential?When it sends a clear messageWhen it sends a clear messageWhen it moves dramaticallyWhen it moves dramaticallyWhen Issue is SalientWhen Issue is SalientLimitsLimitsNot all issues salientNot all issues salientPublic opinion shiftsPublic opinion shifts
Public Opinion and ElectionsPublic Opinion and Elections
Surveys allow for forecastingSurveys allow for forecasting
Can enable strategic votingCan enable strategic voting
Large impact on fundraisingLarge impact on fundraising
Horse race coverageHorse race coverage
Presidential ApprovalPresidential Approval
““Do you generally approve of the way Do you generally approve of the way ________ is handling his job as ________ is handling his job as president?”president?”
Important resourceImportant resource
Increased Bargaining PowerIncreased Bargaining Power
More successful with congressMore successful with congress
Success brings successSuccess brings success
Presidential ApprovalPresidential Approval
Character vs. Character vs. CompetenceCompetence
The case of Bill The case of Bill ClintonClinton
The case of Jimmy The case of Jimmy CarterCarter
Competence trumpsCompetence trumps
Figure 1: Presidential Honesty and Job Approval 1993-1999
0
20
40
60
80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Year
Per
cen
t Y
es Job Approval
Honest andTrustw orthy
Sources of Approval (or lack Sources of Approval (or lack thereof)thereof)
The economyThe economy Both current performance and expectationsBoth current performance and expectations Economy as a whole more important than personalEconomy as a whole more important than personal
Presidential “drama”Presidential “drama”
War/foreign policyWar/foreign policy
Media CoverageMedia Coverage
PrimingPriming Focusing attention on particular areas Focusing attention on particular areas Can help or hurt overall approvalCan help or hurt overall approval
Political TrustPolitical Trust
Most of the time, can you trust government Most of the time, can you trust government to do the right thing?to do the right thing?Trend- Generally decreasingTrend- Generally decreasingSimilar trend for other institutions as wellSimilar trend for other institutions as wellSources?Sources?Policy DissatisfactionPolicy DissatisfactionIncreasing gap between promises/resultsIncreasing gap between promises/resultsPolitical Scandal/MediaPolitical Scandal/Media
Political TrustPolitical Trust
ConsequencesConsequences
Decreased Turnout?Decreased Turnout?
Electoral ChoiceElectoral Choice Benefits 3Benefits 3rdrd party candidates and challengers party candidates and challengers
StabilityStability
ToleranceTolerance
A willingness to tolerate the presence of A willingness to tolerate the presence of ideas that you do not agree withideas that you do not agree withStouffer 1955Stouffer 195580-90% of respondents support abstract 80-90% of respondents support abstract libertiesliberties30-35% support applications of those 30-35% support applications of those libertieslibertiesThe more educated more likely to be The more educated more likely to be toleranttolerant
ToleranceTolerance
More recent workMore recent work
Gap between abstract and appliedGap between abstract and applied
Gap between educated and not?Gap between educated and not?
Different groups-> different resultsDifferent groups-> different results
When allowed to pick groups they don’t When allowed to pick groups they don’t like, more educated nearly as intolerantlike, more educated nearly as intolerant
Americans not much more tolerant than in Americans not much more tolerant than in the 50s?the 50s?