Public Opinion Political Science I. Copyright © Texas Education Agency 2013. All rights reserved....

Public OpinionPolitical Science I

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What is public opinion?


Public Opinion

• The opinion or attitude of a significant group of people about a matter concerning public affairs• “Public affairs include politics, public issues, and

the making of public policies—those events and issues that concern the people at large” (McClenaghan, 2009)

• Examples: political parties and candidates, taxes, unemployment, foreign policy, etc.


Public Opinion (continued)

• The “public” refers to a significant group of people that share a view of a particular issue that effects the people as a whole; there are many different publics and many different public opinions

• Some general characteristics of public opinions• They are difficult to measure• They are learned• They change• They influence government decisions• They can overlap or conflict


Public Opinion (continued)

• How opinions differ• Opinion saliency – some people care more about

certain issues• Opinion stability – opinions on some issues are

relatively steady, but can be more volatile on others

• Opinion-policy congruence – public opinion and public policy are in sync for some issues and out of sync for others


How is public opinion influenced?


Influences on Public Opinion

• Political socialization• Political efficacy • Mass media• Peer groups• Opinion leaders• Historic events


How is public opinion measured?


Public Opinion Polls

• Public opinion polls – “devices that attempt to collect information by asking people questions” (McClenaghan, 2009)• Straw votes• Involve asking the same question to a large group of

people• Are highly unreliable• Do not ensure a reasonable cross-section of the entire

population


Public Opinion Polls (continued)

• Scientific polling• Began in the mid-1930s• Has become highly sophisticated• Is performed by commercial polling organizations,

of which two of the best known are• Gallup Organization (the Gallup Poll)• Pew Research Center for People and the Press


Public Opinion Polls (continued)

• Scientific polling (continued)• A number of the leading national polls are joint

efforts of major news-gathering and professional polling organizations

• They report public attitudes on current issues (i.e. support of the President or Congress)

• Is extremely complex but can be described in five basic steps


Basic Steps of Scientific Polling• Define the universe to be surveyed

• Universe – entire population that the poll aims to measure• Example: every high school student in Texas

• Construct a sample• Most pollsters draw random samples

• Sample – a representative portion of the total universe• Random sample – composed of randomly selected people so that all of the

members have an equal chance of being interviewed

• Most major national polls use samples with approximately 1,500 people to represent the nation’s adult population (over 200 million people)

• The mathematical law of probability makes a sample an accurate representation as long as the sample selected is • A sufficient size and• Properly selected at random from the entire universe


Basic Steps of Scientific Polling(continued)

• Prepare valid questions• The wording of questions is critical to the

reliability of the poll• Responsible pollsters avoid• Questions that are emotionally “loaded” • Questions that lead the participants to the desired

answer• Terms that are difficult to understand



• Select and control how the poll is taken• A pollster’s method of communication can affect the

poll’s accuracy• Face-to-face• Telephone calls

• Is the most common method• Utilizes random-digit dialing

• Mail

• An interviewer’s tone of voice and/or word emphasis can affect the participants’ responses and a poll’s validity

• Polling organizations try to hire and train their interviewing staff very carefully



• Analyze and report the findings to the public• Polls measure people’s attitudes• Scientific polling organizations • Collect huge amounts of raw data• Use technologies to

• Calculate and interpret their data• Draw conclusions• Publish findings


Evaluating Polls

• Weaknesses• Pollsters acknowledge their difficulties measuring • Intensity – the strength of the feeling with which an

opinion is held• Stability (or fluidity) – the relative permanence of an

opinion• Relevance (or pertinence) – how important a particular

opinion is to the person who holds it

• Critics say that pollsters shape the opinions they are supposed to measure


Evaluating Polls (continued)

• Strengths• Scientific polls are the most useful tools for

measuring public opinion• They are not precise, but they are reliable• They help specify questions and stimulate

discussion of them


Other Polling Methods

• Other methods are unreliable but may be used to find key indicators• Elections• Are rarely an accurate measure of public opinion• Are occasionally useful indicators of public opinion

• Personal Contacts• Are a resource that public figures use to try and gauge

public opinion• Some public officials can do this successfully, but many

are biased and only see what they want to see


Other Polling Methods (continued)

• Interest Groups• Are private organizations that work to shape public policy to

their objectives (i.e. pressure groups or special interest groups)

• Provide a primary method to make a public opinion heard• Apply pressure through

• Lobbyists• Letters• Telephone calls• Emails• Political campaigns• Other methods


How does public opinion affect public policy?


Effects on Public Policy

• Public opinion has a powerful role in US politics

• Framers of the Constitution wanted to create a representative democracy that would• Give the people an active voice in government

(popular rule)• Insulate the government from the whims of an ill-

informed public


Effects on Public Policy (continued)

• The following aspects of our constitutional government protect the minority interests from the majority views and actions• Separation of powers• Checks and balances• Civil rights and liberties


Effects on Public Policy (continued)

• Public opinion is one influence on public policy, along with• Interest groups• Political parties• Mass media• Other institutions of government• Ideas of activists and public officials


Resources

• McClenaghan, W. A. (2009). Magruder's American Government, Pearson.

• Glencoe McGraw-Hill (2009), United States Government: Democracy in Action, Glencoe McGraw-Hill.

• Wilson, J. Q., Dilulio Jr., J. J., and Bose, M. (2011). American Government Institutions and Policies, Wadsworth Cengage Learning.

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