Pulses - Andhra Pradesh · Pulses Today’s Developments: Pulses market is awaiting Madras high...

Pulses

Today’s Developments:

Pulses market is awaiting Madras high court decision over import of moong and urad. It is expected on 20-21

Jan-2019.It would decide market trend for urad and moong.

Pressure on imported (Myanmar) Kabuli chana continues in Mumbai cash market due to slack demand and

continuous Holiday in this week.It was quoted at Rs4700-4750 per qtlin Mumbai market. Even Kabuli chana

from other origin like Sudan was offered lower by Rs 50 to Rs 4575-4600.Buyers remained side lined due to

lack of demand from bulk users. Demand from besan industry too remained weak ahead of new crop.

Improvement in demand is expected from next week. Even chana price remains unsupportive for cash chana

market.

Urad Trades Weak On Weak Demand, Firmness Depends On Madras High Court Decision Buying for

imported Urad in cash Mumbai market was seen weak as traders preferred to wait decision on import

restriction pending in Madras High Court. After hearing arguments of both parties the court has reserved

decision and it is expected by the end of this week. It is clear that stay willnot be given now. Hope for higher

supply from Myanmar too remained price limiting factors. There is a news in local market that around 2000

containers of dals are bound to set from Myanmar to Chennai /Kolkatta port from 18 to 23 jan-2019. Demand

for dal is weak and new URAD fAQ is being traded at Rs 4450-4500 in Mumbai market. Price impacting

factor is court's decision. Govt may impose duty on import to check flow of Urad beyond limit of 1.5lakh tonne.

Tur cash market traded almost steady during the week under review despite lower size of incoming crop and

ongoing procurement drive in Tamil Nadu. Actually, market is waiting for Madras high court decision

regarding pulses import. If decision comes in favor of govt, import volume would decrease to the level of set

quantity and it may be almost halted till March-2019.Besides, farmers have restricted selling in open market in

anticipation of higher price, while private buyers are active at current price. So,favorable decision regarding

import ban may push up tur price by Rs200-to 400 from current level. Overall tone in tur market remains firm

as govt.’s agencies would start procuring tur from 4th week of Janin other states too. In Gulberga market tur

is being traded at 4650 to 4900 per qtl.

Recent Developments that are still Influencing Markets:

(13 Jan 2019)

(11 Jan 2019) AP govt. has published 2nd Adv. estimate for principal pulses crop on 4th Jan-2019.Tur area

and production has been pegged at 249 thousand ha and 122 thousand tonne this year in AP.Urad area and

production has been pegged at 356 thousand ha & 298 thousand MT this year in AP. Out of total kharif and

rabi area, kharif contributes 334 thousand ha and rabi contributes 22 thousand ha.Moong area & production

has been pegged at 133 lakh ha and 85 thousand MT in the second adv. estimate for pulses in AP. Out of total

kharif and rabi moong production of rabi moong has been pegged at 77 thousand MT in AP.

(08 Jan 2019) Madras high court is likely to start hearing the case related to pulses import from today.

Market expects result soon. There is a common view in the market that court will give decision in favor of

govt.It means import higher than permitted quantity would not be allowed in any case. So,firmness in pulses

in the near term depends on court’s decision.

(04 Jan 2019) Nafed may retain 4 lakh MT chana &1.5 lakh tonne Masur for PDS. This means Nafed in MP

would release/sell chana in the open market maintaining 4 lakh tonne for PDS. There will be no tender for

masur.

(03 Jan 2019) Govt. has procured 259576.29MT moong during Kharif-18 Season as on 01-01-2019 under

PSS. Around 29136.74MT has been procured in Karnataka. Around 390.64MT in Tamil Nadu and 13375.31

MT in Telangana. The maximum quantity (202765.58MT) has been procured in Rajasthan and 10931.22MT in

Maharashtra. The rest quantity has been procured in other states.

(29 Dec 2018) Govt. allowed export of Tur, Urad and moong dal. It may help market to recover in the

medium term. Exporters are awaiting export incentives to be competitive in global pulses market.

(24 Dec 2018) Tur market may trade firm as crop in south India is believed to be 30 percent lower this year.

The real impact of lower crop size might be seen from March-2019 and it may move up by Rs 300 to Rs500

from current level. Buyers are active and procurement is yet to start. Overall tone remains firm.

(22 Dec 2018) NCDEX has increased agro-commodity trading timing from 9am to 6pm by issuing a circular.

trading time for Other commodities like crude palm oil, cotton, soy oil and sugar would be 9am to 9pm .The

new timing will be effective from 31st December-2018.

(20 Dec 2018) Likely decrease in Rabi pulses (chana, Masur and kharif tur) output due to lower rainfall may

push cash market up in coming weeks. Nafed still have ample chana and tur stock from last season. Tur stock

is said to be around 3.5 to 4.5 lakh tonne with Nafed. Nafed is unlikely to sell tur stock in open market to

support cash tur market. New crop started coming into market and procurement is expected by the end of

this month.

(18 Dec 2018) Center may decide to stop illegal import of urad in containers and may challenge it in court.

(10 Dec 2018) According to FCI officials, Nafed and FCI have started procurement only in a few selected

districts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. In Karnataka, FCI will

soon start procurement of arhar/tur. Out Of the total procurement, 70% will be procured by Nafed and the

rest by FCI.

Price & Arrival:

Black Gram

State/District Market

Modal Price (Rs/Qtl)

Change

Arrivals (Qtl)

Change Source 16 Jan 2019

15 Jan 2019

16 Jan

2019

15 Jan

2019

Andhra Pradesh Guntur(Gota

Branded) NA 7600 - NA NA - Agriwatch

Andhra Pradesh Vijaywada NA NA - NA NA - Agriwatch

Tamil Nadu Villupuram NA NA - NA NA - Agmarknet

Tamil Nadu Chennai NA NA - NA NA - Agriwatch

Tur



Change

Arrivals (Qtl)


15 Jan 2019

16 Jan

2019

15 Jan

2019

Andhra Pradesh Yemmiganur NA NA - NA NA - eNAM

Andhra Pradesh Kurnool NA NA - NA NA - eNAM

Maharashtra Akola 5300 4800 500 87 94 -7 eNAM

Andhra Pradesh Vijayawada closed closed - NA NA - Agriwatch

Moong



Change

Arrivals (Qtl)


15 Jan 2019

16 Jan

2019

15 Jan

2019

Rajasthan Jodhpur 5360 5310 50 18 9 9 eNAM

Karnataka Gulbarga NA NA - NA NA - Agmarknet

Madhya Pradesh Harda NA 4300 - NA 20 - Agmarknet

Andhra Pradesh Vijayawada NA NA - NA NA - Agriwatch

Chana



Change

Arrivals (Qtl)


15 Jan 2019

16 Jan

2019

15 Jan

2019

Andhra Pradesh Kurnool NA NA - NA NA - eNAM

Andhra Pradesh Yemmiganur NA NA - NA NA - eNAM

Madhya Pradesh Indore 4375 4375 Unch 800 820 -20 Agriwatch

Rajasthan Bikaner NA NA - NA NA - eNAM

Chana at NCDEX

Contract Open High Low Close Change Volume O.Int

19-Mar 4231 4275 4217 4250 -1 41030 14350

19-Apr 4279 4310 4255 4288 -1 10510 2420

19-May 4349 4351 4334 4334 -41 310 120

As on 16- Jan- 2019 at 5pm Rs/Quintal

Groundnut

(No Significant Developments)

Current Developments:


(02.01.2019) The groundnut rabi sowing has been lower y-o-y as the lower residual moisture

hasn’t helped farmers going for the rabi crop in states of Telangana and Karnataka. However in

TN the sowing is better as the rains has been good.

The North East Monsoon as on 26th Dec closed with overall 41% deficit. Rabi groundnut area

such as Telangana was deficit by 65%, SI Karnataka by 41%, NI Karnataka by 65%, Rayalseema by

62% and TN by 22%. Thus the NE monsoon rainfall also didn’t assist in rising groundnut

acreages despite of the prevailing higher groundnut prices as compared to last year.

(19.12.2018) With the groundnut modal prices at Adoni bottoming out for the season the

downside potential remains limited and the tone of bullishness depends on the quantum of rabi

and summer groundnut arrivals in AP and crop performance in nearby states. Gujarat summer

crop is going to be one of the lowest and hence fresh supplies from rabi and summer seems to

be lower as of now.-

(18.12.2018) The current cyclone Pethai has brought copious and widespread rains in many

parts of Karnataka, TN, AP and Telangana. Such rain is going to much benefit the prospects of

rabi groundnut sowing. However it is too early to say anything about the spring summer crop

which usually happens to be very negligible in these states.

(30.11.2018)-The state government of Gujarat after delay of almost a week has decided to

expedite the payment of dues to the groundnut farmers. The first instalment of Rs.167 crore will

be paid to the farmers in the next two days. The government had purchased 40,000 tonnes

groundnuts worth Rs 198 crore from farmers but only Rs 1.22 crore has been paid since the date

of purchase (November 15).

(22.11.2018)-Exporters of groundnut have urged the Union government to provide 10%

incentive under the Merchandise Exports from India scheme (MEIS) to increase exports to China

and the European Union. Though China and European Union are the major markets for oilseeds,

India exports minimal quantities to these countries. China imported about 290,000 tonnes of

groundnut in 2017-18 and India’s share was only 627 tonnes. Overall imports of groundnut by

European Union is about 8 lakh tonnes and India imports around 15,000 tonnes. India is facing

competition from African countries which has zero duty on exports to China.

(20.11.2018)-The Gujarat government will conduct groundnut procurement in coordination with

the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India Limited (Nafed). Earlier,

differences had surfaced after Nafed refused to procure groundnut and other agriculture crops

citing inadequate infrastructure with the State agencies. Nafed's concerns came after last year’s

reports of irreg-ularities and malpractices at groundnut warehouses. As per the latest data, so

far 8700 tonnes of groundnut worth Rs.43 crore has been procured from over 3700 farmers in

the State.

Groundnut

State/District Market Variety


Change

Arrivals (Qtl)

Change Source 16-Jan-19

11-Jan-19

16-Jan-19

11-Jan-19

Andhra Pradesh

Adoni NA 3973 - 53 53 Unch NAM

Dharmavaram Local - - - - - - Agmarknet

Gooti Local - - - - - - Agmarknet

Guntakal Local - - - - - - Agmarknet

Kadapa Local NA NA - NA NA - NAM

Kadiri Local - - - - - - Agmarknet

Kalyandurg - - - - - - Agmarknet

Kurnool NA 3900 - 44 44 Unch NAM

Madakasira JL-24 - - - - - - Agmarknet

Penukonda Local - - - - - - Agmarknet

Piler Local - - - - - - Agmarknet

Rayachoti Local - - - - - - Agmarknet

Srikalahasti Other - - - - - - Agmarknet

Tenakallu Local - - - - - - Agmarknet

Yemmiganur NA 4760 - 26 26 Unch NAM

Gujarat

Bhavnagar NA NA - NA NA - NAM

Deesa NA NA - NA NA - NAM

Jamnagar - - - - - - NAM

Rajkot 3500 3600 -100 18 18 Unch NAM

Telangana

Nagarkurnool NA NA - NA NA - NAM

Suryapeta NA 4411 17 NA NA - NAM

Tandur - - - - - - NAM

Wanaparthy Town

NA 5100 - 99 99 Unch NAM

Onion

Today’s Developments

In Maharashtra, rabi sowing is in progress and expected to last for couple of weeks but acreage

is estimated to be 20-25%lesser than normal sowing acreage of 2.6 lakh hectares because of

lower rainfall during sowing time.

Across the country prices are trading on lower side because of continuous arrivals of fresh kharif

crop in market but in coming weeks arrivals may decline because of lower late kharif crop

expectation in Maharashtra.

Recent Developments that are still influencing the Market:

(11 January 2019) - In Bangalore, onion is coming in market from local region and Maharashtra

which are contributing approximately 35% and 65% respectively. Old stocked crop is also

coming in market in smaller quantity.

(9 January 2019) - In Lasalgaon, old stocked crop quantity is approximately 15-25 trolly (2.5 ton)

per day and expected to last for next few days only.

(7 January 2019) - In Lasalgaon, modal prices are trading between Rs 680/ qtl which is similar to

previous year. Last year during same time period prices were trading near Rs 2259/ quintal.

(7 January 2019) - In Kurnool market strike during the week period was resumed which lasted

for 12 days. Prices are trading near Rs 390/ quintal compared to Rs 3000/ quintal previous year.

(7 January 2019) - In Maharashtra, arrivals during the week period were reported highest from

Solapur followed by Ahmednagar and Newasa (Ghodegaon). (Source: Agmarknet).

Price and Arrivals in Major Markets

Onion

State Market

Modal Wholesale Prices (Rs/Qtl)

Arrivals in Tons

Source 16 Jan

2019

15 Jan

2019 Change

16 Jan

2019

15 Jan

2019 Change

Gujarat Ahmedabad NA NA - NA NA - Agmarknet

Rajkot 425 425 Unch 70 50 20 Agmarknet

Karnataka Bangalore 500 NA - 1024 NA - Agmarknet

Belgaum NA NA - NA NA - Agmarknet

Madhya Pradesh Indore NA 550 - NA 1910 - Agmarknet

Maharashtra Lasalgaon NA NA - NA NA - Agmarknet

Pune 600 600 Unch 1283 1095 188 Agmarknet

Andhra Pradesh Kurnool NA NA - NA NA - Agmarknet

Rajasthan Jaipur NA NA - NA NA - Agmarknet

Telangana Hyderabad NA NA - NA NA - Agmarknet

Daily Price Monitoring Report 17th Jan 2019

27/09/2017

Potato

Today’s Development:

In Gujarat, traders are expecting acreage to be similar to previous year which was 1.16 lakh

hectares. Fresh crop “Phukraj” variety has started coming in market in small quantity and

expected to increase in coming days.

In Gujarat, approximately 2% crop is still remaining in cold storage from a total storage of 22.18

lakh tons.

Developments that are still influencing the Markets:

(9 January 2019) - In coming days potato prices are expected to move upward by Rs 30 to Rs

150/ quintal because of higher demand in U.P for “Kumbh Mela”.

(8 January 2019) - In coming days potato prices are expected to move slightly upward by Rs 30

to Rs 50/ quintal because of higher demand in U.P for “Kumbh Mela”.

(7 January 2019) - In U.P, potato acreage to be 5% lower than last year acreage of 6.10 lakh

hectares. According to trade sources maximum area reported lower in Aligarh and Hathras

district.

(7 January 2019) - Across the country prices are trading on lower side because of availability of

new crop from Punjab, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand. Traders are expecting prices

to move upward in coming week because of “Kumbh Mela” in Uttar Pradesh.

(4 January 2019) - In West Bengal, still 3% stored potato is remaining in cold stores from total

storage of 65.31 lakh tons because for seed purpose most of the seed used is from Punjab which

was pushed into West Bengal market at cheaper or nominal rates which led the local crop to be

remained in cold stores. Fresh crop is continuously coming in market and prices are trading near

Rs 500/ quintal.

(27 December 2018) - In West Bengal, release from cold storages is in progress and so far

approximately 95% has been released from a total storage of 65.31 lakh tons.

Price and Arrivals at Major Markets Potato

State Markets

Modal Wholesale Prices (Rs/Qtl) Arrivals in Tons

Source 16 Jan 2019

15 Jan

2019 Change

16 Jan

2019

15 Jan

2019 Change

Gujarat Surat 900 900 Unch 680 700 -20 Agmarknet

Andhra Pradesh Palamaner 500 600 -100 1.9 2.4 -0.50 NAM

Karnataka Bangalore 1450 NA - 927 NA - Agmarknet

Belgaum NA NA - NA NA - Agmarknet

Madhya Pradesh Indore NA 700 - NA 320 - Agmarknet

Maharashtra Pune 900 900 Unch 787 559 228 Agmarknet

Delhi Delhi 590 580 10 1306 1583 -277 Agmarknet

Uttar Pradesh Agra 515 520 -5 1345 1300 45 Agmarknet


27/09/2017

Tomato


Tomato prices in Andhra Pradesh has fallen in few markets because demand from “Tamil Nadu”

region is lesser because of “Pongal Festival” as modt the markets were closed.

Developments that are still influencing the Market:

(11 January 2019) - Tomato prices are expected to remain firm for coming weeks because of

lower arrivals from producing regions.

(11 January 2019) - In Andhra Pradesh, chittor and Anantpur districts tomato acreage is

expected to be lower because of deficit rainfall during sowing time from October to December

month.

(9 January 2019) - In Madanapalle, prices reported lower compared to previous day on Tuesday

because of lower demand from Maharashtra and other region but overall tomato prices are

expected to remain firm in coming days.

(8 January 2019) - Tomato prices in Madanapalle has increased because of lower arrivals from

producing regions. Prices are expected to remain firm for coming weeks.

(7 January 2019) - Arrivals from Madanapalle region is lesser but are coming from nearby

regions/districts. Prices reported firm during the week period and expected to remain firm in

coming days.

(4 January 2019) - According to trade sources tomato crop is expected to be lower in Kolkata

and nearby regions because of lower temperature yield is less and sowing also reported less. So

sometimes traders buy the tomato crop from other states like Chhattisgarh and Karnataka

depending upon the parity.

Price and Arrivals in Major Markets

Tomato

State Markets

Modal Wholesale Prices (Rs/Qtl.) Arrivals in Tons

Source 16 Jan

2019

15 Jan

2019 Change

16 Jan

2019

15 Jan

2019 Change

Andhra Pradesh

Mulakalacheruvu 1200 NA - 5 NA - Agmarknet

Madanapalle 3000 NA - 17.2 NA - NAM

Kalikiri NA NA - NA NA - NAM

Pattikonda 1215 NA - 1.5 NA - NAM

Gurramkonda 800 1840 -1040 3 3.5 -0.5 NAM

Karnataka Chintamani NA NA - NA NA - Agmarknet

Kolar 1500 1767 -267 109 333 -224 Agmarknet

Maharashtra Pune 1300 1200 100 103 141 -38 Agmarknet

Delhi Delhi 1088 1010 78 531.3 448.7 82.6 Agmarknet

Telangana Bowenpally NA 1500 - NA 93.4 - Agmarknet


27/09/2017

Turmeric


(No significant developments today)


Deficit rainfall reported in Maharashtra Marathwada turmeric growing regions like Hingoli, Sangli, Nanded, Basmat etc. affect Turmeric standing crop. As per local trade information, standing crop likely to damage around 15 - 20%.

Local traders are likely to become active in coming days at lower price levels as Maharashtra production estimate reported lower as a result of drought condition. As per market information, due to water scarcity standing crop growth is very slow.

As per Agriwatch’s S

econd advance production estimate, Turmeric production for 2019-20 is estimated at 532,353 MT (basis dry crop) compared to previous year’s 476,771 MT. Turmeric production may go down further as Maharashtra standing crop is at very crucial stage.

As per Agriwatch’s estimate in Andhra Pradesh, acreage to rise by 8% from last year’s 15,941 hectares to 17,216 hectares due to increase in prices. Production is likely to rise from 57,335 MT (basis dry crop) last year to 61,921 MT current year.

In Andhra Pradesh, final Turmeric sowing reported 18,737 hectares as compared to 14,841 hectares in the corresponding period last year, 104% sowing completed from season normal.


27/09/2017

Prices & Arrivals

Turmeric

State Market Variety Modal Price (Rs/Qtl)

Change Arrivals (Qtl)

Change Source 16-Jan-19 15-Jan-19 16-Jan-19 15-Jan-19

Andhra Pradesh

Duggirala Finger NA NA --

NA NA -- NAM Bulb NA NA --

Kadapa Finger NA NA --


Telangana

Nizamabad Finger NA NA --


Warangal Finger Closed Closed --

NA NA -- Agriwatch Round Closed Closed --

Tamil Nadu Erode Finger NA NA --

NA NA -- Agmarknet Bulb NA NA --

NCDEX:

Turmeric at NCDEX

Contract Change Open High Low Close Volume O.Int

19 Apr -122.00 6650.00 6670.00 6512.00 6520 2180 13535

19 May -110.00 6694.00 6700.00 6564.00 6564.00 270 415

19 Jun -- -- -- -- -- -- --

As on 16th January 2019 at 5:00 pm Prices in Rs/quintal, Volumes and Open interest in MT


27/09/2017

Chilli


In Andhra Pradesh, Chilli sowing for the Rabi season as of 09th Jan reported at 13,631 hectare as compared to 14,675 hectare in the corresponding period last year. Normal area reported 25,950 hectare. Chilli is at transplantation to vegetative stage.

In Telangana, Chilli sowing for the Rabi season as of 09th Jan reported at 11,397 hectare as compared to 7,049 hectare in the corresponding period last year. Normal area reported 16,336 hectare. It is at vegetative stage.


New chilli crop continued trading at Guntur spot market. Currently moisture content (3% – 10%) new crop arrivals traded. Currently 25,000 – 30,000 bags new chilli arrivals traded at Guntur market. Normal quality new crop expected to arrive with small quantity after 15th January. Lower cold storage stocks likely to support chilli prices from lower levels.

As per trade information, chilli cold storage stocks as on date (including old and new crops) in Guntur stood at 36,000 to 40,500 MT while total stocks in Andhra Pradesh are expected around 67,500 to 76,500 MT according to various trade estimates.

New chilli arrivals started at Warangal spot market, moisture content new crop supply reported.

As per Agriwatch’s second advance production estimate, Red Chilli production for 2019-20 is estimated at 12.22 lakh MT. Previous year’s production was 10.50 lakh MT.

Prices & Arrivals

Red Chilli

State Market Variety


Change

Arrivals (Qtl)

Change Source 16-Jan-19

15-Jan-19 16-Jan-

19 15-Jan-

19

Andhra Pradesh Guntur Teja NA NA -- NA NA -- NAM

334 NA NA -- NA NA -- NAM

Telangana Khammam Red NA NA -- NA NA -- Agmarknet

Warangal Talu NA NA -- NA NA -- Agmarknet


27/09/2017

Sugar Today’s Developments:

According to news sources Maharashtra's sugar commissioner has given in-principle approval

for making part of the cane payment in the form of sugar as sugarcane price arrears in the state

have increased to Rs 4,576 crore.


(17 Jan 2019) - India's sugar exports are likely to be far lower than a 5 million-tonne target set by government as a strengthening rupee and falling global prices make shipments unattractive despite a government push for overseas sales. As Agriwatch expected that India is likely to export to 3.0 million tonnes of sugar in the 2018/19 marketing year that started on Oct. 1

(17 Jan 2019) - The Government of Punjab has released Rs 35 crore to the cooperative sugar mills of the state towards the payment for sugarcane dues for the year 2017-18. The same has been credited into the accounts of the sugarcane farmers. The cooperative sugar mills had dues amounting to Rs 182.26 crore pending towards the government as of December 31, 2018, out of which Rs 151.82 crores remain due following the payment of Rs 35 crore. Out of these Rs 151.82 crore, a sum of Rs 65 crore has been released by the Punjab Rural Development Board, which would be paid soon. This was stated by the state cooperation minister, S Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa.

(10 Jan 2019) - Sugar prices at Kolhapur gained by Rs 25 on Wednesday on increased demand at the mill level led by strong rumours that the government may increase minimum support rates for mills, currently at Rs 2,900 per quintal.

(09 Jan 2019) - The Centre is likely to revise the sugar minimum selling price (MSP) by 10 per cent from its current level of Rs 29 a kg to Rs 32 a kg in the weeks ahead. Last year, the Union food ministry had fixed the ex-factory sugar sale price at Rs 29 a kg to help domestic sugar mills amid falling retail sugar prices and the export-market squeeze owing to a global glut in the sector.

(09 Jan 2019) - March NY world sugar #11 (SBH19) on Monday closed up +0.72 (+6.04%) and March ICE London white sugar (SWH19) closed up by +13.80 (+4.17%). Sugar prices rallied sharply Monday to 2-1/2 week highs on a rally in crude oil to a 2-1/2 week high, which benefits ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar producers to divert more cane crushing to ethanol production than sugar, thus reducing sugar supplies.

Prices Sugar (M grade)

State/ District Market Modal Price (Rs /Qtl)

Change Source 16 Jan 2019 15 Jan 2019

Maharashtra Kolhapur 3050 3050 Unch AW

Uttar Pradesh Khatauli 3360 3450 -90 AW

Andhra Pradesh Vijayawada 3440 3440 Unch AW

Delhi Delhi 3040 3040 Unch AW


27/09/2017

Cotton Today’s Developments:

According to ICRA report, surge in export demand for cotton yarn during the initial few months

of the current financial year has helped the domestic spinners record a healthy recovery from

the multi-year low profitability reported during FY2018.

Recent Developments that are still Influencing Markets

(11 Jan 2019) - According AP Agricultural Department, Cotton output in the state, in the 2018-19 season is seen declining 6% on year to 1.91 mln bales. Yield is seen at 525 kg per ha compared with 580 kg per ha in 2017-18. Agriwatch is expecting cotton output for the season for the state it will be around 1.65 mln bales.

(11 Jan 2019) - ICE March cotton settled at 73.13 cents, up 1.46 cents, July was at 75.66 cents, up 1.26 cents and December was at 74.19 cents, up 0.96 cent. Wednesday’s estimated volume was 35,900 contracts traded. Sharply higher crude oil prices and a weaker dollar were supportive. Some of the focus in the recent US/China trade talks was over China’s pledge to buy a substantial amount of US goods. At the moment, we have little way of gauging current export demand with the government shutdown keeping the Export Sales reports from being released.

(09 Jan 2019) - As per the latest estimates by Agriwatch, cotton output in country during the season 2018-19 would be around 338.22 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) which is lower compared to 365 lakh bales of last season. AW has reduced the crop estimate for Gujarat to around 92.82 lakh bales (from 108 lakh bales last year), Maharashtra to around 72 lakh bales (83 lakh last year), Telangana and AP by 52.00 lakh and 16.50 lakh bales respectively. The main reason for reduction in cotton crop is that farmers have uprooted more than 50% of their cotton crop after second picking and foregone the third and fourth pickings due to moisture deficiency and pest attacks. Dry spells in the initial stages of the crop, too, led to stunted growth of bolls, were the major reasons to decline in cotton yield in India.

(09 Jan 2019) Agriwatch expects imports of cotton during current year may reach 27 lakh bales as against last year’s of 15 lakh bales. This is supported by weak global prices, which have touched their lowest levels in more than a year at 72.1 cents per pound for ICE futures by December. The volatility in exchange rate, and expectation of lower output this year leads to higher imports of cotton. Although imports are higher than last year, importers are finding it difficult to locate quality material as good quality cotton of the US, Australia and Brazil has already been sold. Also, exports have declined to 53 lakh bales compared to 70 lakh bales during corresponding period of last year. The reduction in exports is mainly due to stronger Indian Rupee, lower production and weak international prices.

(08 Jan 2019) The CAI has estimated cotton crop for 2018-19 season at 335 lakh bales of 170 kgs each which is lower by 5.25 lakh bales than its previous estimate of 340.25 lakh bales made during last month. Statements containing the State-wise estimate of the cotton crop and the Balance Sheet for the crop year 2018-19 with the corresponding data for the previous year are enclosed. The CAI has reduced the crop estimate for Gujarat, Maharashtra and Telangana by 1.50 lakh bales, 2 lakh bales and 2 lakh bales respectively. The main reason for reduction in cotton crop is that farmers have uprooted their cotton plants in about 70-80% cotton area due to moisture deficiency due to less rains and as a result of which there is no scope for 3rd and 4th pickings.

(07 Jan 2019) India’s cotton yield is not increasing during the last few years. As against the world average over 770 kg per hectare, productivity of cotton in India is low at only about 498 kg per hectare this year. The dip in output is due to a reduction in planting area, water availability, limited


27/09/2017

improvement in yields; pest and diseases attack were the major reasons to decline in cotton yield in India.

(07 Jan 2019) MCX cotton slipped to 8-month low in Dec mainly due to lower demand from mills and pick up in arrivals. So far India has shipped around 14 lakh bales of cotton. The cotton exports is expected to decline by 20-22% to around 55-60 lakh bales during 2018-19 season due to lower production and coupled with currency fluctuations.

(07 Jan 2019) Agriwatch expecting this year imports of cotton may reach up 25-27 lakh bales as against last year’s of 15 lakh bales. This is supported by weak global prices, which have touched their lowest levels in more than a year at 72.1 cents per pound for ICE futures on January 3, and also we can see the volatility in exchange rate, and also expectation of lower output this year leads import more cotton. Even if imports are higher than last year, they will face quality limitations. All the good quality cotton of the US, Australia and Brazil has already been sold.

(04 Jan 2019) MCX Jan contract witnessed gains in today’s trading.Cotton spot market prices expected to trade remain sideways to weak tone due to sluggish demand. Arrivals are also up a further expectation to be in slow pace as sellers want better prices. In long run, prices may get support to rise after export demand from China, Bangladesh, Vietnam and opening up of Pakistan market.

(04 Jan 2019) India’s cotton yield is not increasing during the last few years. As against the world average over 770 kg per hectare, productivity of cotton in India is low at only about 500 kg per hectare. The dip in output is due to a reduction in planting area, water availability and limited improvement in yields; pest and diseases attack were the major reasons to decline in cotton yield in India.

Prices & Arrivals

Cotton

State/ District

Market Modal Price (Rs /Qtl)



15 Jan 2019

16 Jan 2019

15 Jan 2019

Gujarat Rajkot 5600 5580 20 5000 5000 Unch APMC

Andhra Pradesh

Adoni NA NA - NA NA - Agriwatch

Andhra Pradesh

Guntur NA NA - NA NA - Agriwatch

Andhra Pradesh

Krishna NA NA - NA NA - APMC

Andhra Pradesh

YEMMIGANUR NA NA - NA NA - NAM


27/09/2017

Maize


Maize is moving towards Bangalore and Namakkal at Rs. 1,990 per quintal each, Chitradurga at

Rs. 1880 per quintal, Chennai at Rs.2,020 per quintal and Ranebennur at Rs.1,850 per quintal

(Delivered price); sourced from Davangere.

In Gujarat, maize progressive area of Rabi 2018-19 is 0.96 lakh hectares which is equal to

corresponding period last year.


In Davangere region of Karnataka, maize is likely to trade steady to slightly firm due to local

stockists demand at Rs.1,800-1,850 per quintal (Delivered Price). Demand from Bangalore and

Tamil Nadu feed makers is supporting to maize cash market. As per trade source, around 40,000

MT of maize has been stocked by stockists.

In India, Rabi maize has been sown in around 13.61 lakh hectares as of 11th January, 2019 which

is lower than 15.13 lakh hectares during corresponding period last year. In Bihar, maize has been

sown in around 4.57 lakh hectare which is almost equal to 4.66 lakh hectares during

corresponding period last year. In Karnataka, it has been sown in around 0.81 lakh hectare

which is lower than 0.99 lakh hectares during corresponding period last year. In Maharashtra, it

has been sown in around 1.01 lakh hectares which are lower than 1.84 lakh hectares during

corresponding period last year.

As per trade sources, India exported 29,016 MT of maize for the month of November’18 at an

average FoB of $241.33/ MT. Indian maize is exported mainly to Nepal followed by Philippines,

Sri Lanka and Qatar mainly through JNPT followed by Raxaul and Mundra port.

Prices & Arrivals:

Maize

State/ District

Market Grade Modal Price (Rs./Qtl)



15 Jan 2019

16 Jan 2019

15 Jan 2019

Telangana Nizamabad Bilty Closed Closed - Closed Closed - AGRIWATCH

Bihar Gulabbagh Bilty 1931 NA - NA NA - AGRIWATCH

Karnataka Davangere Loose 1850 1850 Unch NA 1000 - AGRIWATCH

Delhi Delhi Loose 2000 2000 Unch NA NA - AGRIWATCH

Andhra Pradesh Kurnool Loose NA NA - NA NA - ENAM

*Difference between current and previous day’s prices.


27/09/2017

Palm Oil


According to cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS), Malaysia’s Jan 1-15 palm oil

exports rose 7.9 percent to 647,062 tons compared to 599,801 tons in corresponding period last

month. Top buyers were European Union 146,745 tons (97,469 tons), China at 142,812 tons

(184,560 tons), India at 75,500 tons (104,410 tons), United States at 48,050 tons (19,705 tons)

and Pakistan at 8,000 tons (28,000 tons). Values in brackets are figures of corresponding period

last month.

According to Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB), Malaysia kept February crude palm oil export

duty unchanged at 0.0 percent. Export duty of palm oil is calculated at reference price of

1904.44 ringgit ($463.48) per ton. Tax is calculated above 2,250 ringgit starting from 4.5 percent

to a maximum of 8.5 percent.

According to Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), India’s December edible oil imports rose 8.21

percent y-o-y to 11.46 lakh tons from 10.58 lakh tons in Dec 2017. Palm oil imports in Dec rose

12.3 percent y-o-y to 8.12 lakh tons from 7.23 lakh tons in Dec 2017. CPO imports rose 10.2

percent in Dec y-o-y to 6.70 lakh tons from 6.08 lakh tons in Dec 2017. RBD palmolein imports

rose 22.43 percent in Dec y-o-y to 1.31 lakh tons from 1.07 lakh tons in Dec 2017. Soy oil

imports rose 7.6 percent in Dec y-o-y to 0.85 lakh tons from 0.79 lakh tons in Dec 2017.

Sunflower oil imports fell marginally y-o-y in Dec to 2.36 lakh tons from 2.37 lakh tons in Dec

2017. Rapeseed (canola) oil import fell 35 percent y-o-y in Dec to 0.13 tons compared 0.20

imports in Dec 2017.

Palm oil import scenario – According to Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), palm oil imports in

Dec rose 12.3 percent y-o-y to 8.12 lakh tons from 7.23 lakh tons in Dec 2017. Imports in the oil

year 2018-19 (November 2018-December 2018) are reported higher by 4.44 percent y-o-y at

15.04 lakh tons compared to 14.4 in last oil year.

Crude Palm oil import scenario- According to Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), CPO Imports

rose 10.2 percent y-o-y in Dec to 6.70 lakh tons from 6.08 lakh tons in Dec 2017. Imports in oil

year 2018-19 (November 2018-December 2018) were reported higher by 6.08 percent y-o-y at

12.39 lakh tons compared to 11.68 lakh tons in last oil year.

RBD palmolein import scenario- RBD palmolein imports rose y-o-y in Dec by 22.43 percent to

1.09 lakh tons from 1.47 lakh tons in Nov 2017. Imports in oil year 2018-19 (November

2019Decemberr 2018) were reported lower by 25.64 percent y-o-y at 21.35 lakh tons compared

to 28.71 lakh tons in last oil year.

Imports of edible oils rose in the month of December on the back of firm palm oil and sunflower

oil imports. CPO imports continued its firm trend for six the month. Imports of RBD palmolein

rose on weak base. Higher CPO imports in December have led to surge in ports stocks of CPO

which will weigh on its prices. RBD palmolein port stocks fell in December despite higher

imports. However, imports performance of CPO and RBD palmoelin will reverse from January as


27/09/2017

fresh import duty cut was effective from 2019. Imports of RBD palmolein will rise due to higher

import parity and margins in imports than domestic refined RBD palmoelin. Sunflower oil

imports rose in December due to low premium of sunflower oil over soy oil. Soy oil showed

weak imports in December on seasonal downtrend. January import read will be important to

watch as import duty reduction of palm oil especially RBD palmolein from Malaysia which

received preferential treatment in import duty compared to other palm oil importers.


(10 Jan 2019)-According to Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB), Malaysia’s December palm oil

stocks rose 6.92 percent to 32.15 lakh tons compared to 30.07 lakh tons in November.

Production of palm oil in Dec fell 2.02 percent to 18.08 lakh tons compared to 18.45 lakh tons in

Nov. Exports of palm oil in Dec rose 0.57 percent to 13.83 lakh tons compared to 13.75 lakh tons

in Nov. Imports of palm oil in Dec fell 19.15 percent to 1.09 lakh tons compared to 1.35 lakh tons

in Nov. End stocks of palm oil rose more than trade expectation on lower than expected rise in

exports.

(9 Jan 2019)-Palm oil prices are expected to be expected to supported by fall in production of

palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, rise in imports of palm oil by China and India from Malaysia

in December and rise in crude oil prices. Palm oil production is expected to fall in Malaysia in

December as data from Malaysia Palm Oil Association (MPOA), showed 1 percent rise in

production of palm oil in Malaysia in Dec indicating weak production scenario. End stocks of

palm oil will rise slower than estimated which has crossed 3 MMT in Malaysia in Nov. Palm oil

end stocks fell in Indonesia in November below 4 MMT due to seasonally higher exports. Exports

are expected to show strong start to 2019 with higher demand from India and China. Reduction

of palm oil import duty by India especially refined palm oil from Malaysia will support palm oil

prices. China is buying more palm oil due to lower production of soy oil in China due to lower

imports of soybean in November. Further, China will import more in Dec and Jan on demand

ahead of Chinese New Year. India is buying to take advantage of low prices, lower import duty

on palm oil and appreciation of Rupee has made palm oil cheaper to import.

(8 Jan 2019)-According to Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), exports of palm oil (CPO and

PKO) from Indonesia rose 14.1 percent in November y-oy to 2.99 MMT from were 2.64 MMT in

Nov 2017. Exports of palm oil (CPO and PKO) were fell 4.8 m-o-m in Nov at 2.99 MMT compared

to Oct 2018 at 3.14 MMT. Stocks of palm oil in Nov 2018 fell to 3.89 MMT from 4.41 MMT in Oct

2018.

(3 Jan 2019)-India reduced import duty on imports of CPO as well as RBD palmolein especially

import duty on imports of RBD palmolein will attract 5.5 percent less import duty. Import duty

on imports of RBD palmolein from Malaysia is at 45 percent compared to 50 percent from other

destinations. This will make imports of crude palm oil uncompetitive. This will provide stimulus

to palm oil prices in near term. However, in longer term high stocks of palm oil in Malaysia will

weigh on prices. Reduction of palm oil import duty by India will reduced duty differential

between crude and refined palm oil to 5 percent from 11 percent on imports from Malaysia.


27/09/2017

This will adversely impact refiners in India who are struggling will high debt levels. Cheap

imports of refined palm oil will destroy India edible oil refining industry.

(2 Jan 2019)-According to Government of India (GOI) notification number 84/2018-Customs

dated 31 December 2018, import duty on crude palm oil is reduced to 40 percent from 44

percent while on refined palm oil is reduced to 50 percent from 54 percent sourced from

Southeast Asian (ASEAN) countries under the trade agreement between India and ASEAN

countries. This makes total import duty on crude palm oil to 44 percent and 55 percent on

refined palm oil after applying all taxes.

(27 Dec 2018)-According to Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), Indonesia kept January

export duty unchanged at zero. Both threshold prices and tax rates have been kept unchanged.

Indonesia has kept crude palm oil export duty at zero since May 2017 as it expects that it will

miss certain thresholds.

(6 Dec 2018)-According to Indonesia’s finance ministry, Indonesia will not charge levy on

exports of palm products as long as CPO prices stay below threshold prices of USD 570 per ton.

It will charge USD 10-15 per ton between prices range of USD 570-619 per ton. Levy will rise to

USD 20-50 per ton above CPO prices of USD 619 per ton. Under the old rule exports of palm oil

has to pay USD 20-50 per ton export levy on exports of palm oil irrespective of any thresholds

which was used to fund biodiesel mandate in the country. With steep fall in palm oil prices in

2018, palm oil producers are bleeding which has led to removal of export levy. This step may

lead more exports of palm oil from Indonesia which is reeling with oversupply of palm oil.

Prices:

Palm Oil Prices (In Rs./ 10 Kg)

State/District Market 16 Jan 2018 15 Jan 2019 Change Source

Crude Palm Oil (FFA 5%)

Gujarat Kandla 533 530 3 Agriwatch

Andhra Pradesh Krishnapatnam 535 532 3 Agriwatch

RBD Palmolein

Gujarat Kandla 625 625 Unch Agriwatch

Andhra Pradesh Kakinada 620 620 Unch Agriwatch

Andhra Pradesh Krishnapatnam 615 615 Unch Agriwatch


Palm Oil at MCX

Contract Open High Low Close Change Volume(Lots) O.Int

31-Jan-19 543.90 545.90 541.90 544.10 0.10 520 3984

28-Feb-19 551.50 552.90 549.50 550.20 -1.70 383 5066

31-Mar-19 555.00 556.00 554.70 555.60 -1.00 21 1361


27/09/2017

As on 16-Jan-2019 at 9 pm Rs/10 Kg

Sunflower oil


Sunflower oil imports scenario- According to Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), Sunflower oil

imports fell marginally y-o-y in Dec to 2.36 lakh tons from 2.37 lakh tons in Dec 2017. Imports in

oil year 2018-19 (November 2018-December 2018) were reported lower by 6.74 percent y-o-y at

4.01 lakh tons compared to 4.30 lakh tons in last oil year.


(7 Jan 2019)-Sunflower oil premium over soy oil in CNF markets have increased to $18 per ton

from $41 per ton last week and premium in domestic markets have reached to 5 per 10 kg up Rs

25 per 10 kg from last week. Also, premium of sunflower oil over RBD palmolein has decreased

to Rs 155 per 10 kg Rs 187 per 10 kg last week. Prices of sunflower oil are estimated to trade

lower last week on higher premium over palm oil.

(26 Dec 2018)-Sunflower oil premium over soy oil in CNF markets have increased to $41 per ton

from $8 per ton last week and premium in domestic markets have reached to 25 per 10 kg up Rs

15 per 10 kg from last week. Also, premium of sunflower oil over RBD palmolein has decreased

to Rs 187 per 10 kg Rs 195 per 10 kg last week. Prices of sunflower oil are estimated to trade

lower last week on higher premium over palm oil.

(7 Dec 2018)-Sunflower oil premium over soy oil in CNF markets have increased to $8 per ton

from $-3.0 per ton last week and premium in domestic markets have reached to 15 per 10 kg

down Rs 35 per 10 kg from last week. Also, premium of sunflower oil over RBD palmolein has

decreased to Rs 195 per 10 kg Rs 158 per 10 kg last week. Prices of sunflower oil traded lower

last week on higher premium over palm oil amid rising discount over groundnut oil.

(9 Nov 2018)-According to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) November

estimate, India is estimated to import 2.2 MMT of sun oil in 2018/19 compared to earlier

estimate of 2.1 MMT, higher by 4.76 percent y-o-y. Consumption of sun oil is increased to 2.3

MMT from 2.2 MMT in its earlier estimate, up 4.55 percent y-o-y. Rise in imports of sun oil is

due to lower in import duty compared to palm oil.

Prices:

Sunflower Oil Prices (In Rs./ 10 Kg)


Tamil Nadu Chennai Closed Closed - Agriwatch

Andhra Pradesh Krishnapatnam 765 765 Unch Agriwatch

Andhra Pradesh Kakinada 765 765 Unch Agriwatch



27/09/2017

Groundnut oil

Today’s Developments

(No Significant Development)


(7 Jan 2019)-Groundnut oil prices are expected to be supported by firm demand. Demand is firm

due to peak season demand. Demand is expected to firm if volatility in groundnut oil prices

stabilizes. Prices of groundnut oil will moderate in later part of January as peak season will be

over. Demand of groundnut oil will weaken in the range of Rs 1000-1050 per 10 kg. There is no

parity in crush of groundnut. Rise in palm oil prices will improve groundnut oil demand. In South

India, groundnut oil prices rose in parity with Gujarat and firm demand

(24 Dec 2018)-Groundnut oil prices are underpinned by weak demand at higher levels. Demand

has weakened despite being peak demand season as prices of groundnut oil is high compared to

competitive oils. Consumers are purchasing mix of oils in place of groundnut oil. Rural demand is

weak as farmers have not received payment of their crops. There is no parity in crush of

groundnut. In Andhra Pradesh prices of groundnut fell in parity with Gujarat.

(7 Dec 2018)-Saurashtra Oil Mills Association (SOMA), has asked union commerce ministry to

announce incentives for groundnut exports. There are about 3,000 groundnut manufacturers in

Suarashtra. Of the 6 lakh ton of exports of groundnut, around 3 lakh tons of groundnut are

exported from Saurashtra. It is asking for six percent duty drawback on exports of groundnut.

There is tough competition in international markets of groundnut.

(23 NOV 2018)-Exporters of groundnut and sesame seeds have urged the Union government to

provide 10% incentive under the Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS) to boost the

export to China and the European Union (EU).

Prices:

Groundnut Oil Prices (In Rs./ 10Kg)


Gujarat Rajkot 960 980 -20 Agriwatch

Telangana Hyderabad Closed Closed - Agriwatch

Tamil Nadu Chennai Closed Closed - Agriwatch



27/09/2017

Rice


According to news sources European Union is likely this week to impose tariffs on rice coming from Cambodia and Myanmar for the next three years to curb a surge in imports.

Recent Developments that are still influencing the Markets:

(11 Jan 2019) - Rice procurement this season crossed 263 lakh tons as of Friday compared to 254 lakh tons in the last year till January 2018. Rice procurement is higher than last year so far and it may turn out to be a record high if the trend reflects in Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal where procurement lasts till June. After a sluggish beginning, paddy procurement picked up in UP in the last few weeks as the state relaxed procurement norms. The state allowed up to 35 per cent of hybrid paddy in overall procurement. Procurement has picked as Uttar Pradesh government has announced various relaxations including 3 per cent higher Out Turn Ratio for hybrid paddy.

(04 Jan 2019) - All-India progressive procurement of Rice as on 04.01.2019 for 2018-19 was at 262.96 lakh tons against the procurement of 250.46 lakh tons in the corresponding period of last year.

(29 Dec 2018) - India’s exports of basmati rice grew by 11.54 per cent to Rs 16,963 crore during April-October this fiscal. In volume terms, however, the exports declined to 22.95 lakh tons in April-October 2018-19 as against 23.72 lakh crore in the same period last fiscal. While there is a marginal decline of 3.28 per cent per cent in quantity terms, in value terms the exports have grown by 11.54 per cent. The major export destination for basmati rice are Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Yemen, the US, and UK.

(23 Dec 2018) - Rice export prices in India rose for a second straight week to the highest in four months on higher procurement costs for paddy. India’s 5 percent broken parboiled variety was quoted around $378-$384 per ton this week, up from last week’s $375-$382.

(23 Dec 2018) - Rice cultivation in the current rabi season is down by 32 per cent as compared to the corresponding period last year, with Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh reporting a substantial drop in planting, As per the weekly sowing data published on Friday, rabi sowing has covered a total area of 512.53 lakh hectares (lh), about 4.6 %lower than 537.12 lh covered in the same period in 2017-18.

(23 Dec 2018) - By increasing the minimum support price (MSP) of Paddy by Rs. 1750 per quintal to 2500 rupees per quintal by the Chhattisgarh government, the government procurement of paddy will increase. Chhattisgarh has targeted the target of 55 lakh tons of Paddy this year. The paddy from state of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa adjoining Chhattisgarh will now come to illegal use in Chhattisgarh

(22 Dec 2018) - Due to the promise of increasing the MSP during the elections, government

procurement of rice in Chhattisgarh and Border States was halted. So far, 21.6 lakh tons of

paddy has been procured in Chhattisgarh. Paddy procurement is 60% higher than the target in

Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.


27/09/2017

(18 Dec 2018) - The preliminary estimation by AP agriculture and horticulture departments has

put the crop losses in an extent of 10,856 hectare (agriculture) and 405 hectare (horticulture).

Paddy crop in 5,857 hectare suffered damage and majority of it was in Krishna district.

Market Grade Modal

Price(Rs /Qtl)

Change Arrivals (Qtl) Change Source

16 Jan

2019

15 Jan

2019

16 Jan

2019

15 Jan 2019

BALOD PADDY 1001 1650 1770 -120 18 20 -2 E-nam

BHATAPARA Paddy HMT 2147 1800 247 25 2 23 E-nam

RAJIM Paddy-samba Masuri 1621 1705 -84 26 62 -36 E-nam

BADEPALLY PADDY-SONA 1837 1550 287 37 12 25 E-nam

MAHBUBNAGAR 1010 1690 1937 -247 3 137 -134 E-nam

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