PUMPED STORAGE
HYDROPOWER (PSH)
NWHA
2/18/15
Swan Lake North: Reaching competitive economics
| |
PSH OVERVIEW
PSH is a known storage technology that is widely deployed
PSH in today's markets will be built for different reasons than past
PSH without a mandate must be competitive with other capacity technologies, such as an LMS100 flexible gas turbine
Swan Lake North can be competitive with design changes to accomplish this
In CA:
• Hyatt
• Helms
• Castaic
• Lake Hodges
| |
EDF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND EDF CIH
EDF RE is leveraging EDF CIH expertise in PSH
EDF Hydro Engineering Center (EDF-CIH) Unparalleled Global Experience
600 hydroelectric schemes
Complete hydro engineering services
spectrum
1,000 employees with more than
six hundred engineers
| |
SWAN LAKE NORTH:
PROJECT
CHARACTERISTICS
Location: Approximately 11 miles NE of Klamath Falls, Oregon
Private and BLM Property
Water Availability: Leased groundwater rights,
preliminary OWRD approval
Transmission Access South of Malin; near COB;
PacifiCorp and CAISO
Total Capacity: 300 to 400MW
Project Head: 1,500+ feet
Closed-Loop System New upper and lower
reservoirs
No impact to existing water ways
Initial fill and evaporation makeup from existing ground water wells
Source: WECC, Principal Transmission Lines
Swan Lake North is going through
some significant design changes
to decrease its cost, increase its
value, and improve its feasibility.
This right-sizing exercise is critical
for all storage development.
EXAMPLE: CASTAIC PSH IN CALIFORNIA
Redesign Concept:
• Above ground penstocks
• Above ground power house
Old Swan Lake Design
New Swan Lake Design
Castaic PSH 1,500MW
| |
$21.40
$19.34
$15.19
$13.55
$29.03 $28.79 $28.30
$27.81
$4.59 $4.15
$3.26 $2.37
$10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Val
ue
or
Co
st (
$/k
W-m
o)
Capacity (MW)
Elasticity Analysis of PLEXOS Size Sensitivity Modeling
Total Value
Hard Value
Project Cost
Total Value
Hard Value
Project Cost
Thin lines = Swan Lake Thick lines = LMS100 Dashed lines = projected
At 300MW in size, Swan Lake quickly approaches the net cost-benefit of an LMS100 installation.
($7.63)/kW-mo
($5.41)/kW-mo
Old Project Size More Optimal Project Size
A smaller project is more competitive
Elasticity is a measure of impact on value or cost as a function of a critical input: in this case project size.
CONCEPT REDESIGN
CHANGING FUTURE CAN IMPACT SWAN LAKE
NORTH POSITIVELY
Higher Renewables
Higher Gas Prices
GHG Initiatives
$
$
Several Alternative
Scenarios may
raise the value of
Swan Lake North
by a fair degree.
$
$
CA=33% base case
could rise in a 2 to 3 year
period?
Modeled at 40% RPS in CA. CA=$10/ton base case
could rise in a
2 to 5 year period?
Not modeled, but
expect similar effect
to that of Higher
Renewables.
$5.14/MMBtu base case
could rise in a 5 to 10 year
period?
Modeled at $5.76/MMBtu high
gas price.
Swan Lake North is
expected to COD in
late 2021;
(seven years from now).
Elasticity=
0.80
Elasticity=
1.03
Elasticity Meaning for
300MW Optimal Project
Size:
40% RPS in CA may raise
value by 17% or $3.64/kW-
mo.
$5.76/MMBtu high gas price
may raise value by 12% or
$2.57/kW-mo
These values are lower for a
600MW project as the Total Value
of the larger project is less.
PSH IS AWESOME!
ONLY A MACROBIOTIC DRINK CAN DO MORE
BY THE NUMBERS
300MW of Swan Lake North is the equivalent of
=
100MW of new super peaking generation that is carbon free
40MW+ of new load following flexible generation capacity
125MW+ of new system load (primarily off-peak)
50MW+ of a new wind farm for avoided curtailment
50MW+ of coal plant retirement for carbon reduction
| |
DA TO HA MARKET VALUE COMPARISON
WHEN UTILIZED IN THE MARKET (MWH OF USE)
$21.54
$20.10
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
Ave
rage
On
e Y
ear
$/M
Wh
Uti
lize
d
Swan Lake North gets 51% of its total market value
(marginal benefit) from Arbitrage Revenue
Ancilliary ServiceRevenue
Arbitrage Revenue
All
Har
d V
alu
e
51%
HOUR AHEAD OPERATIONS
$25.78
$14.53
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
Ave
rage
On
e Y
ear
$/M
Wh
Uti
lize
d
Swan Lake North gets 64% of its total market value
(marginal benefit) from Arbitrage Revenue
Ancilliary ServiceRevenue
Arbitrage Revenue
All
Har
d V
alu
e
64%
DAY AHEAD OPERATIONS
The bar charts illustrate how
storage provides increasing
value in the form of ancillary
services as the scheduling
window approaches real-time
dispatch.
Pumped storage has a min
pump/generation volume and
typically can not devote 100%
of Its capacity to ancillary
services. This is an advantage
batteries have at the moment.
| |
SPRING DA TO HA DISPATCH SCHEDULE
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
MW
pe
r H
ou
r
Hour Ending
Operations on 4/1/2022
Spin/Flex Down
LF/Reg/Flex Down
Pumping
Non-Spin/Flex Up
Spin/Flex Up
LF/Reg/Flex Up
Generation
Note: long & low output
Only 4.5 hours full power storage required
DAY AHEAD OPERATIONS
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
MW
pe
r H
ou
r
Hour Ending
Operations on 4/1/2022
Spin/Flex Down
LF/Reg/Flex Down
Pumping
Non-Spin/Flex Up
Spin/Flex Up
LF/Reg/Flex Up
GenerationOnly 6.5 hours full power
storage required
#1
#2 Note: change to mid-day pumping
HOUR AHEAD OPERATIONS
Storage flexibility is illustrated here showing
significant schedule changes due to continued
reoptimization at each scheduled window.
Day Ahead and Hour Ahead are shown.
The last and most valuable scheduled window
is the Real-time in a 5 minute market.