Date post: | 15-Aug-2015 |
Category: |
Real Estate |
Upload: | eureka-forbes-ltd |
View: | 258 times |
Download: | 3 times |
RESIDENTIAL MARKET SLOW YET STEADY
Will Pune overtake NCR as the 3rd largest market? Will Pune surpass Mumbai and NCR in sales?Will Pune realty be costlier than NCR and Bengaluru?
NEW LAUNCHES DROP BY 24% Y-O-Y; DEVELOPERS RESTRICT NEW LAUNCHES
H1 20
13
H2 20
13
H1 20
14
H2 20
14
H1 20
15
H2 20
15 E
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
4,000
4,500
5,000
Launches Absorption Wt. Avg. Price (RHS)
No
. o
f u
nit
s
Rs
/sq
ft
20,7
20
24,6
50
16,8
80
16,7
00
12,7
60
19,1
40
20,9
30
17,8
60
14,7
20
20,1
50
15,5
20
21,4
40
4,350
4,5204,610
4,7504,820
4,870
77% OF NEW LAUNCHES BELOW INR 2.5 MN ARE IN THE NORTH
<2.5 mn 2.5-5 mn 5-7.5 mn 7.5-10 mn 10-20 mn >20 mn0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Central East West North South
INR
WEST PUNE REMAINS BEST PERFORMING DUE AFFORDABLE PRICING, ACCESS TO THE IT/ITeS HUB, LIMITED NEW LAUNCHES
HOWEVER, CENTRAL PUNE GOES FROM BAD TO WORSE
6 7 8 9 10 116
7
8
9
10
11
Central
East
West
North
South
QTS
Ag
e o
f u
nso
ld i
nve
nto
ry i
n q
uar
ters
WEST
SOUTH
NORTH
EAST CENTRAL
H1 20
13
H2 20
13
H1 20
14
H2 20
14
H1 20
15 -
100
200
300
400
500
600
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
Launches Absorption Wt. Avg. Price (RHS)
No
. o
f u
nit
s
Rs
/sq
ft
SUPPLY IN PREMIUM MARKETS CONTRACTS FASTER THAN DEMAND
SLOWER SALES IN PREMIUM MARKETS
Mar
-13
Jun-1
3
Sep-1
3
Dec-1
3
Mar
-14
Jun-1
4
Sep-1
4
Dec-1
4
Mar
-15
Jun-1
54
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
No
. o
f Q
uar
ters
PREMIUM MARKETS
PUNE CITY
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
LAUNCHES (UNITS)
SALES(UNITS)
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE
(INR/SQ FT)
H2 2014 16,700 20,150 4,750
H2 2015 E 19,140 21,440 4,870
GROWTH 15% 6% 3%
LAUNCHES- PUNE FROM BEING 4TH OVERTAKES NCR AS 3RD LARGEST
H1 2014 H2 2014
MUMBAI 35,512 26,833
NCR 35,500 37,643
BENGALURU 35,545 32,589
PUNE 16,883 16,700
CHENNAI 11,377 7,318
HYDERABAD 7,899 5,151
KOLKATA 8,444 11,891
AHMEDABAD 9,021 4,991
H1 2015
BENGALURU 21,400
MUMBAI 18,887
PUNE 12,762
NCR 11,360
CHENNAI 9,102
KOLKATA 8,372
AHMEDABAD 8,062
HYDERABAD 5,457
ABSORPTION - EVEN IN SALES, PUNE
H1 2014 H2 2014
MUMBAI 31,210 36,505
NCR 28,500 12,075
BENGALURU 27,256 28,445
PUNE 14,719 20,150
CHENNAI 10,315 10,643
AHMEDABAD 10,472 8,019
HYDERABAD 7,282 7,829
KOLKATA 6,390 6,245
H1 2015
MUMBAI 28,446
BENGALURU 22,234
PUNE 15,524
NCR 14,250
CHENNAI 9,091
AHMEDABAD 7,751
HYDERABAD 7,123
KOLKATA 5,883
SURPASSES NCR
PUNE REALTY COSTLIER THAN NCR, BENGALURU
H1 2012
H2 2012
H1 2013
H2 2013
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015E
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
MumbaiNCRBengaluruPuneChennaiHyderabadKolkataAhmedabad
Rs
/sq
ft
MUMBAI
PUNE
AHMEDABADHYDERABAD
KOLKATA
NCR
BENGALURU
CHENNAI
PUNE THE BEST PERFORMING MARKET IN INDIA
5 7 9 11 13 15 17 195
7
9
11
13
15
QTS
Age
of
unso
ld in
vent
ory
in q
uart
ers
MUMBAI
PUNE
AHMEDABAD
HYDERABAD
KOLKATA
NCR
BENGALURU
CHENNAI
DEMAND HIGHER THAN SUPPLY SINCE 2014; SHARP DECLINE IN VACANCY
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015E0
5
10
15
20
25
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
20% 20%
19%
18%17%
16%
New Completion Absorption Vacancy (RHS)
mn
sq
ft
17.
1
18.
5
19.
2
15.
3
16.
4
17.
9
18.
4
20.
7
16.
4
17.
9
18.
9
20.
7
MARKET FAVOURABLE FOR LANDLORDS
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015E0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
WEIGHTED AVERAGE RENTAL GROWTH
IT / ITeS LOSES DOMINANCE; MAKES WAY FOR OTHER SERVICES SECTORS
IT/ITeS BFSI (Including support service)
Manufacturing Other services0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
45%
11%
20%
24%
43%
19%
9%
29%
36%
11%
15%
38%
H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015
8.1
8.7
6.5 1.9
3.9
2.1
3.6
1.8
2.7
4.4
6.0
6.7
Across Mumbai, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad
NEW COMPLETIONS (MN SQ FT)
ABSORPTION (MN SQ FT)
VACANCY
H1 2014 16.4 17.9 19%
H2 2014 18.4 20.7 18%
H1 2015 16.4 17.8 17%
A SNAPSHOT
VACANCY REACHES LOWEST SINCE 2007 AT 15% DURING JAN – JUN 2015
H1 20
13
H2 20
13
H1 20
14
H2 20
14
H1 20
15
H2 20
15 E
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
51.1 52.3 54.3 54.8 56.3 57.3
40.1 41.3 43.4 45.8 47.9 50.1
22% 21%20%
16% 15%13%
Stock Occupied stock Vacancy (RHS)
mn
sq
ft
H1 20
13
H2 20
13
H1 20
14
H2 20
14
H1 20
15
H2 20
15 E
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0 2
.40
1.1
8
2.0
3
0.5
0
1.5
4
0.9
5
2.8
2
1.1
7
2.1
0 2.4
0
2.1
6
2.1
5
New completions Absorption
mn
sq
ft
DEMAND CONSISTENTLY OUTSTRIPPING SUPPLY SINCE H1 2014
H1 20
12
H2 20
12
H1 20
13
H2 20
13
H1 20
14
H2 20
14
H1 20
15
H2 20
15 E
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
37 37 39
41 43
47
50 53
Rs
/sq
ft/
mo
nth
RESULTING IN STEEP RENTAL APPRECIATION
MANUFACTURING INCREASES SHARE; VOLKSWAGEN, MERCEDES BENZ, SCHLUMBERGER PICK SPACE
IT/ITeS BFSI* Manufacturing Other Services0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
39%33%
9%
20%
62%
23%
11%
4%
32%
25%
17%
27%
H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015
0.8
1
0.6
8
0.4
2
0.1
8
1.4
9
0.6
9
0.5
4
0.5
3
0.2
7 0.3
6
0.1
0
0.5
8
* INCLUDES SUPPORT SERVICES
ALL NUMBERS IN MN SQ FT
SBD EAST INCREASES ITS SHARE IN THE TOTAL ABSORPTION PRIMARILY DUE TO YERWADA
CBD & Off-CBD SBD East SBD West PBD East PBD West0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
8%
43%
14%
22%
13%8%
52%
9%14%
18%
H1 2014 H1 2015
0.1
6
0.1
6
0.9
0 1.1
2
0.3
0
0.1
9 0.4
7
0.3
0
0.2
7
0.3
8
ALL NUMBERS IN MN SQ FT
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
NEW
COMPLETIONS (MN SQ FT)
ABSORPTION (MN SQ FT)
VACANCYWEIGHTED AVERAGE
RENT (INR/SQ FT/MONTH)
H2 2014 0.50 2.40 16% 47
H2 2015E 0.95 2.14 13% 53
GROWTH 90% -11% 13%
NEW IT POLICY WILL BE BENEFICIAL BUT AFTER 2-3 YEARS200% ADDITIONAL FSILOWER POWER TARIFFSINCENTIVES ON PROPERTY TAXESEXEMPTION FROM CERTAIN LEVIES
SCARCITY IN QUALITY OFFICE SPACE – HIGHEST IN PUNE AFTER BENGALURU
Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad -
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%22%
21%
8%
15%18%
16%
New completions Absorption Vacancy (RHS)
mn
sq
ft
H1 2015
AT 16%, PUNE SEES THE FASTEST GROWTH IN RENTALS DURING JAN-JUN 2015
PUNE
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 -15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20% Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad
Gro
wth
in R
enta
ls
AVERAGE DEAL SIZE 2nd LARGEST AFTER BENGALURU
Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000 2
1,43
0
25,
622
71,
577
21,
434
24,
520
24,
702
23,
291
21,
872
54,
253
40,
773
34,
507
18,
585
H1 2014 H1 2015
sq f
t
KEY TAKEAWAYSRESIDENTIALPUNEBEST PERFORMING MARKET IN INDIA
OFFICEPUNERENTAL APPRECIATION ALREADY THE HIGHEST IN INDIA; SUPPLY SHORTAGE COULD LEAD TO FURTHER RISE