+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

Date post: 13-Feb-2017
Category:
Upload: vuanh
View: 222 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
15
Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A pre-election survey was conducted in Punjab by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi, for ABP News. The survey was conducted from December 10 through December 18, 2016 among 3093 voters in 188 locations spread across 39 assembly constituencies. The sampling design adopted was Multi-stage random sampling. The assembly constituencies where the survey was conducted were randomly selected using the probability proportional to size method. Thereafter, five polling stations within each of the sampled constituencies were selected using the systematic random sampling method. Finally, the respondents were also randomly selected using the same method from the latest electoral rolls of the sampled polling stations. Before going to the field for the survey, field investigators were imparted training about the survey and interviewing techniques at a day-long training workshops held in Amritsar and Chandigarh. The field investigators asked the respondents in a face-to-face interview in Punjabi (or Hindi in some cases) a detailed set of questions. The duration of the interview was approximately 30-35 minutes. The survey could not be conducted at seven sampled locations covering four assembly constituencies. The achieved sample has been weighted by age-groups, gender, locality, religion, and caste group, based on Census 2011 information. The poll has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 points. The error margin increases for cross tabulations. Profile of Achieved Sample in Punjab Survey Sample (%) Census 2011 (%) Scheduled Caste (18+ years) 35.9 29.8 Hindu 31.4 38.5* Sikh 66.2 57.7* Women (18+ years) 43.5 48.3 Urban (18+ years) 27.4 38.3 18-25 years 12.4 23.9 26-35 years 25.1 24.2 36-45 years 21.6 19.7 46-55 years 16.9 13.8 56+ years 24.0 18.4 *Includes all ages The fieldwork of the study was coordinated by Prof. Jagroop Singh Sekhon (Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar) and Prof. Ashutosh Kumar (Panjab University, Chandigarh). The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Lokniti. The team included Asmita Aasaavari, Arushi Gupta, Dhananjay Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Jyoti Mishra, Souradeep Banerjee, Shashwat Dhar, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. The survey was directed by Prof. Sanjay Kumar, Prof. Suhas Palshikar and Prof. Sandeep Shastri of Lokniti.
Transcript
Page 1: Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016

About the Survey

A pre-election survey was conducted in Punjab by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing

Societies, Delhi, for ABP News. The survey was conducted from December 10 through December

18, 2016 among 3093 voters in 188 locations spread across 39 assembly constituencies. The

sampling design adopted was Multi-stage random sampling. The assembly constituencies where the

survey was conducted were randomly selected using the probability proportional to size method.

Thereafter, five polling stations within each of the sampled constituencies were selected using the

systematic random sampling method. Finally, the respondents were also randomly selected using the

same method from the latest electoral rolls of the sampled polling stations. Before going to the field

for the survey, field investigators were imparted training about the survey and interviewing

techniques at a day-long training workshops held in Amritsar and Chandigarh. The field

investigators asked the respondents in a face-to-face interview in Punjabi (or Hindi in some cases) a

detailed set of questions. The duration of the interview was approximately 30-35 minutes. The

survey could not be conducted at seven sampled locations covering four assembly constituencies.

The achieved sample has been weighted by age-groups, gender, locality, religion, and caste group,

based on Census 2011 information. The poll has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.6

points. The error margin increases for cross tabulations.

Profile of Achieved Sample in Punjab

Survey Sample

(%)

Census 2011 (%)

Scheduled Caste (18+ years) 35.9 29.8

Hindu 31.4 38.5*

Sikh 66.2 57.7*

Women (18+ years) 43.5 48.3

Urban (18+ years) 27.4 38.3

18-25 years 12.4 23.9

26-35 years 25.1 24.2

36-45 years 21.6 19.7

46-55 years 16.9 13.8

56+ years 24.0 18.4 *Includes all ages

The fieldwork of the study was coordinated by Prof. Jagroop Singh Sekhon (Guru Nanak Dev

University, Amritsar) and Prof. Ashutosh Kumar (Panjab University, Chandigarh). The survey was

designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Lokniti. The team included Asmita Aasaavari,

Arushi Gupta, Dhananjay Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Jyoti Mishra, Souradeep Banerjee,

Shashwat Dhar, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. The survey was directed by Prof. Sanjay Kumar,

Prof. Suhas Palshikar and Prof. Sandeep Shastri of Lokniti.

Page 2: Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

Survey details in a nutshell

Conducted by Lokniti-CSDS, for ABP News

Dates of fieldwork Dec 10-18, 2016

No. of Assembly Constituencies covered 39

No. of Polling Stations (Locations) covered 188

No. of interviews conducted (Sample size) 3093

Overall Margin of Error +/- 2.6

Sampling method Multi-stage random sampling

Fieldwork method Standardized face to face interview in Punjabi/Hindi

Summary of Findings

Lokniti team

The Lokniti-ABP News pre-election survey conducted in Punjab between December 10 and 18,

2016 has thrown up a major paradox. The survey conducted among 3093 voters spread across 39

assembly constituencies has found a strong desire among the state’s voters to bring in political

change with three out of five voters being against giving the incumbent Shiromani Akali Dal-

Bharatiya Janata Party (SAD-BJP) government another chance to govern. Yet when it came to

voting intentions, it is the unpopular SAD-BJP combine that emerged on top edging out its main

political opponents the Indian National Congress (Cong) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). When

voters were asked to indicate who they would vote for if elections were held the very next day, a

plurality (34 percent) indicated SAD-BJP as their preference. The Congress was the vote choice of

31 percent respondents and the AAP of 21 percent. Other smaller parties were preferred by 14

percent respondents.

A changed nature of competition in the state seems to be one of the chief reasons for the SAD-BJP

combine’s lead over its opponents despite being highly unpopular. In a state that has traditionally

witnessed a bipolar contest between the SAD-BJP and the Congress, the entry of AAP has made the

contest triangular and this seems to be leading to a massive division of votes of those who are

against the ruling government. The survey has been able to capture this quite well. Among the 60

percent voters who said they would not like the incumbent government to get another term in

office, the survey found no clear preference for any single opposition party. While 42 percent of

their vote was cornered by the Congress, a significant 30 percent of these anti-Akali government

voters indicated that they would vote for AAP. Similarly, the survey found 36 percent of the voters

to be highly dissatisfied with the performance of the SAD-BJP government and among them too

there is a significant divide. While 43 percent of them are planning to vote for the Congress, 29

percent are for AAP and 21 percent are voting for other parties.

To be fair, even as the SAD-BJP government is unpopular on the whole, it is not regarded as a

failure on all aspects of governance. On matters such as electricity supply, water supply, condition of

roads, the state of educational facilities, and urban development, it is rated positively by most voters.

Page 3: Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

However on other critical areas such as the condition of farmers, lowering corruption, generating

jobs, and maintaining law and order, it is rated highly negatively. For instance, 70 percent of the

respondents said that corruption had gone up during the last five years. 69 percent were of the

opinion that the situation of employment had deteriorated. This negative rating on the job front is

particularly bad news for the ruling alliance since the survey also found unemployment to be the

prime concern of many voters. In response to an open-ended question on the single most important

issue in the election, a plurality of voters (20 percent) said lack of jobs will be the most important

voting issue for them. For 18 percent development will be the key voting issue, for 13 percent it will

be price rise and for 8 percent corruption will be a major consideration while voting.

The survey found the SAD-BJP combine to be leading in two out of three regions of the state. In

Malwa, the largest region of the state, SAD+ leads with 33 percent of the vote followed by the

Congress at 28 percent and AAP+ closely behind at 26 percent. Within this larger Malwa region,

each of the three players has its area of dominance. The Congress leads in East Malwa, AAP in

Central Malwa and SAD in West Malwa. In Majha and Doaba, meanwhile, the survey found the

competition to be essentially a two-horse race with AAP being a distant third. In Majha, the

Congress narrowly leads the Akali-BJP combine by three points as of now. In Doaba, however, it

trails them by four points. The survey found AAP to be netting 17 percent votes in Doaba and just

10 percent in Majha. Even as the AAP may not be doing all that well in these two regions, the small

but significant share of votes secured by it may well eventually determine who finishes on top here –

the Congress or the Akalis. In both Majha and Doaba, particularly the former, a large proportion of

voters saw the AAP as being a spoiler rather than a strong contender.

Overall, SAD and BJP have a seven point lead over the Congress in rural Punjab. In Urban Punjab,

it is the Congress which is ahead of the ruling alliance but only by a slender margin of three points,

31 to 28 percent. AAP is also a strong contender of urban votes with the party securing 25 percent

support among respondents located in urban areas.

SAD-BJP have a significant advantage over their two rivals among the landed peasantry. The survey

found the combine to be securing 52 percent of the votes among big farmers owning over five acres

of land. The alliance does a little worse among farmers owning less than five acres of land, however

among them too it is quite comfortably ahead. Among landless farmers, however, the SAD-BJP

combine is not doing as well, with the Congress leading this section with 36 percent votes.

The Congress, in fact, is doing far better among poorer sections of the electorate than those who are

economically well off. Whereas 38 percent of the Poor were found to be voting for the party, among

the Rich, support for the party drops to 29 percent. AAP, on the other hand, is doing far better

among the Rich (23 percent) than the Poor (18 percent). Support for SAD-BJP is evenly spread

across all classes with a slight advantage to them among the poorer sections.

Page 4: Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

In terms of caste and community support, the ruling alliance was found to be leading its rivals quite

comfortably across all Sikh communities. The party’s vote share among Jat Sikhs, Khatri Sikhs, OBC

Sikhs and Dalit Sikhs is in the range of 37 to 39 percent. To be sure, the Congress and AAP together

are garnering more votes than the Akalis across all these Sikh communities. However since this is a

three-horse race, a massive vote split of Sikhs between the two opposition parties seems to be giving

the Akalis the frontrunner advantage. The Hindu vote, meanwhile, seems to be favouring the

Congress with the party ahead of the SAD-BJP among all Hindu communities. What is significant

however is that among Hindu Dalits, the Congress is not doing as well as it would have hoped for.

The party is netting only 41 percent of their vote with the SAD-BJP combine close behind at 35

percent. The AAP does not seem to be doing too well among Hindus barring the upper castes, a

fifth of whom are voting for the party as of now.

The survey found a significant pattern with respect to age. AAP was found to be doing far better

among the youngest voters (18-25 year olds), 26 percent of whom were leaning towards the party.

However with an increase in the age of voters, the party’s support was found to be declining.

Among 26-35 year olds the party got 23 percent votes and among 36-45 year olds support for it

dropped further to 19 percent. Among the elderly, the party received only about 17 percent vote.

The Congress, on the other hand, was found to be doing far better among older voters than younger

ones. The SAD-BJP combine is leading its rivals across all age groups except the 45-55 year olds.

According to the survey, while a majority of voters of all three main political players are committed

to voting for their respective parties come Election Day; it is AAP voters who are most likely to

change their vote. About 25 percent of AAP voters said that their vote might change and that they

may end up voting for someone else on voting day. This figure of indecisiveness was 23 percent

among SAD-BJP voters and 21 percent among Congress voters.

The survey found Amarinder Singh to be the most spontaneous preference of voters for the post of

chief minister. In response to an unprompted question on chief ministerial choice, 29 percent of the

respondents took the Congress leader’s name. The current chief minister Prakash Singh Badal was

the spontaneous choice of 20 percent respondents followed by AAP’s Bhagwant Mann at 8 percent

and Arvind Kejriwal at 4 percent. Interestingly, 31 percent of the respondents did not give an

answer to this question. This figure is significant since the survey also found very few respondents

who will be making their vote choice based on a chief ministerial candidate. Asked what would

matter more to them while voting in the upcoming assembly election – party, local candidate or a

chief ministerial candidate, only 8 percent said a ‘CM candidate’ would be their main consideration.

51 percent said ‘Party’ would be their main basis of making a choice and 28 percent said it would be

the ‘Local candidate’. AAP voters are more likely to vote on the basis of ‘Party’ than voters of other

parties. Congress voters are more likely to decide on the basis of ‘Local candidate’ than voters of

SAD-BJP and AAP. SAD-BJP voters, meanwhile, are slightly more likely to decide their vote on the

basis of ‘CM candidate’ as compared to voters of Congress and AAP.

Page 5: Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

The survey found that the Akali Dal suffers from a much higher negative perception compared to

other parties, including its partner BJP. Asked who they thought was the most corrupt party in

Punjab, 34 percent of the respondents said it was SAD which was the most corrupt of all. Congress

was viewed as being most corrupt by 14 percent respondents, and BJP and AAP by just 4 and 3

percent respectively. A plurality of voters also viewed the Akali Dal as the most nepotistic (42

percent) and most faction ridden party (26 percent).

The Congress, meanwhile, is perceived as being better than other parties when it comes to solving

key problems facing Punjab. 25 percent were of the opinion that it was best suited to solve the

problem of unemployment as opposed to 18 percent who saw SAD-BJP as being best for

addressing the issue. 26 percent of farmers thought the Congress would do the best job at solving

farmers’ issue compared to 21 percent who felt SAD-BJP would be best. Congress was also the

choice of 25 percent of respondents when it came to solving the problem of drugs followed by AAP

at 17 percent and SAD-BJP at 14 percent. This is important since the survey also found that 85

percent respondents considered the drug addiction problem to be a very serious issue. Interestingly,

the AAP has been unable to make inroads among such people despite its strong campaign about the

drug menace. Two-thirds of the 85 percent who saw the drug addiction problem as being very

serious were found to splitting their votes almost evenly between Congress and SAD-BJP.

Finally, demonetization has not been well received by the voters of Punjab. 60 percent reported

going through a lot of trouble while exchanging and depositing their old notes. Only 22 percent

were highly optimistic that it would end up solving the problem of black money. Moreover, only 28

percent were of the opinion that the move to demonetize 500 and 1000 rupee notes was the right

decision. 45 percent thought it was right but done without any preparation and 21 percent were of

the opinion that it was a wrong decision that should never have been taken. Such voters were

however found to be splitting their vote between the Congress and AAP, 44 percent to 28 percent

thus giving the Akali-BJP an upper hand.

Page 6: Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 (Findings) Overall Estimated Vote Share (Dec 2016) - SAD-BJP have an edge in triangular race

Survey estimate

December 2016 (%)

Change since 2014

Lok Sabha Election

(% points)

Change since 2012

Assembly Election

(% points)

Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party (SAD-BJP/SAD+)

34 -1 -8

Indian National Congress (Cong) 31 -2 -9

Aam Aadmi Party-Lok Insaaf Party (AAP+) 21 -3 +21

Others 14 +6 -4 Note:*AAP+ includes AAP and Lok Insaaf Party. Undecided voters who did not disclose their vote preference have been distributed proportionally after a careful analysis. The question asked was: If elections in Punjab are held tomorrow then what party will you vote for? We are giving you a slip which has the names and symbols of different parties. Please mark your vote on this slip and put it in this box.

Anti-incumbency sentiment is very strong in Punjab

%

SAD-BJP govt. should get another chance 24

SAD-BJP govt. should not get another chance 60

No opinion 15 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The question asked was: Do you think the current SAD-BJP government in Punjab should get another chance?

Complete dissatisfaction with State, Central govts is also very high compared to other states

Performance of… Fully Satisfied

Somewhat satisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied

Fully Dissatisfied

Prakash Singh Badal as CM 26 27 8 37

SAD-BJP govt. in Punjab 26 27 9 36

Narendra Modi as PM 34 28 6 30

NDA govt. at Centre 30 28 6 31 Note: Figures are percentages; the rest of the respondents did not give their opinion. The questions asked were: (1) What is your opinion about Prakash Singh Badal as chief minister? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with his performance? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat) (2) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with his performance of the SAD-BJP government in Punjab over the last five years? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat) (3) What is your opinion about Narendra Modi as prime minister? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with his performance? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat) (4) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the NDA government at the Centre over the last two and a half years? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat)

Page 7: Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

Anti-Akali govt. sentiment is getting badly divided between Cong and AAP+

SAD-BJP (%) Cong (%) AAP+ (%) Oth (%)

Vote choice of those not in favour of giving SAD-BJP another chance (60%)

12 42 30 16

Vote choice of those fully dissatisfied with SAD-BJP govt. (36%)

7 43 29 21

Vote choice of those fully dissatisfied with Narendra Modi govt. (31%)

9 41 30 20

Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Akali-BJP govt rated negatively on the all important issue of job creation

In last five years.. Improved Deteriorated Remained same No response

Electricity supply has... 76 13 10 1

Condition of farmers has… (only farmer responses)

26 62 8 5

Condition of roads has… 59 31 10 1

School/college facilities have… 53 32 11 4

Condition of govt. hospitals has… 41 43 12 5

Drinking water supply has... 56 32 10 2

Development of cities has... (only urban responses)

58 25 15 2

Employment opportunities have… 15 69 14 2

Curbing of corruption has… 13 70 13 4

Development of Punjab has… 43 35 17 5

Law and order has... 24 53 17 5 Note: Figures are percentages; they may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Most important election issue is unemployment

If polls are held today, the most important voting issue will be…

%

Unemployment 20

Development 18

Price rise 13

Corruption 8

Poverty 5

Farmer woes 2

Demonetization 2

Electricity, roads, water supply 1

Other issues 11

No opinion 20 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The question asked was: If Assembly elections in Punjab take place tomorrow then what will be the most important issue for you while casting your vote? Question asked was an open ended question, no choices were offered to the respondents.

Page 8: Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

Most see AAP as a spoiler than a strong contender; this sentiment is strongest among Cong voters and in Majha region

AAP is just a spoiler

AAP a serious contender; can win

No opinion

All voters 43 34 23

Cong voters 56 20 24

SAD+ voters 52 18 31

AAP+ voters 12 82 7

Malwa 38 40 23

Majha 63 20 19

Doaba 38 33 28 Note: Figures are percentages; they may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The question asked was: Now I will read out two statements. Please tell me which statement would you agree with the most? Statement1: Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP is only capable of cutting into Cong & Akali-BJP’s votes; they will not be able to win many seats. Statement2: Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP is a strong contender in Punjab and can possibly win the elections.

Region-wise Vote estimates: SAD+ leads in Malwa and Doaba; Cong in Majha

Frontrunner Second Third

Malwa SAD+ 33 Cong 28 AAP+ 26 Oth 13

Majha Cong 38 SAD+ 35 AAP+ 10 Oth 17

Doaba SAD+ 36 Cong 32 AAP+ 17 Oth 15 Note: Figures are percentages

SAD+ leads by a comfortable margin in rural Punjab, Cong by a slim margin in urban

Vote % for SAD+

Vote % for Cong.

Vote % for AAP+

Vote % for Oth.

Rural 38 31 19 12

Urban 28 31 25 17 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

SAD+ has big advantage among landed farmers, Cong slightly ahead among landless ones

Vote % for SAD+

Vote % for Cong.

Vote % for AAP+

Vote % for Oth.

Big farmers with 5+ acres land 52 28 18 1

Medium and small farmers with <5 acres land 38 23 21 18

Tenant cultivators and agricultural workers 30 36 27 7

Non-farmers 33 31 21 15 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Page 9: Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

Cong does better among poorer than richer voters, with AAP it is reverse

Vote % for SAD+

Vote % for Cong.

Vote % for AAP+

Vote % for Oth.

Upper class 33 29 23 15

Middle class 33 29 22 15

Lower class 36 33 18 13

Poor 34 38 18 10 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

SAD+ doing well among all Sikh groups; Cong leads among Hindus but getting stiff fight

Vote % for SAD+

Vote % for Cong.

Vote % for AAP+

Vote % for Oth.

Jat Sikh 39 25 23 13

Khatri Sikh 38 27 27 9

Dalit Sikh 37 29 23 11

OBC Sikh 38 32 30 1

Hindu upper caste 31 35 20 15

Hindu OBC 24 42 17 18

Hindu Dalit 35 41 18 6

Muslims and Others 19 26 13 42 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

AAP vote declines with age, Cong’s rises with it; SAD does best among middle aged, elderly

Vote % for SAD+

Vote % for Cong

Vote % for AAP+

Vote % for Oth

18-25 years 28 26 26 20

26-35 years 35 32 23 10

36-45 years 39 33 19 9

46-55 years 30 33 16 21

56+ years 39 34 17 10 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

SAD+, AAP+ voters more likely to change their choice by voting day than Cong voters

Will vote for same party on election day (%)

May vote for someone else (%)

No Response (%)

All voters 65 22 13

SAD+ voters 65 23 12

Cong voters 68 21 11

AAP+ voters 64 25 12

Oth’s voters 62 17 21 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The question asked was: On the day of voting will you vote for the same party which you voted for now or your decision may change?

Page 10: Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

Amarinder Singh is most voters’ spontaneous preference for Chief Minister

%

Amarinder Singh 29

Prakash Singh Badal 20

Bhagwant Mann 8

Arvind Kejriwal 4

Bikramjit Singh Majithia 1

Sukhbir Singh Badal 1

Narendra Modi 1

Others 6

No response 31 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The question asked was: After the upcoming election, who would you prefer as the next chief minister of Punjab? Question asked was an open ended question, no choices were offered to the respondents.

AAP voters seem most attached to their party; Cong voters more likely than others to look at candidates before deciding vote

In the soon to be held assembly election, I will vote on the basis of…

Party

Local candidate

CM candidate

Narednra Modi’s name

(unstated option)

Gandhi family/Manmohan Singh’s name (unstated option)

Other matters

No response

All voters 51 28 8 1 <1 3 10

Cong voters 51 30 9 <1 1 1 8

SAD+ voters 47 27 11 2 0 3 9

AAP+ voters 58 28 4 <1 0 5 5

Oth’s voters 48 21 4 0 0 1 26 Note: Figures are percentages; they may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The question asked was: While deciding whom to vote for in the assembly elections to be held in the next few months, what will matter to you most - party, local candidate or the chief ministerial candidate of a party? The options of ‘Modi’ and ‘Gandhi family/Manmohan Singh’ were unstated and were not read out to the respondents.

SAD seen as most corrupt, most nepotistic & faction ridden; BJP, AAP have cleanest image

Cong SAD BJP AAP All parties

Most corrupt party 14 34 4 3 32

Most nepotistic party 15 42 2 1 24

Most faction ridden party 18 26 3 7 29 Figures are percentages; the rest of the respondents did not give their opinion. The questions asked were: Now I will read out a few things. Please tell me in your opinion which party do you find them most in – Congress, BJP, Akali Dal or Aam Aadmi Party? a. Corruption b. Nepotism/promoting family members c. Factionalism

Page 11: Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

Congress perceived as better than other parties at solving key problems facing Punjab

Cong SAD+BJP

AAP No party

All parties

Party best for solving problem of drugs 25 14 17 23 8

Party best for solving SYL canal issue 21 19 13 19 7

Party best for solving problem of unemployment 25 18 17 22 8

Party best for solving farmers’ issues (farmers’ responses only)

26 21 19 22 5

Figures are percentages; the rest of the respondents did not give their opinion. The questions asked were: (1) Which party is best suited to solve the problem of drug addiction- Cong, BJP, Akali-Dal, AAP? (2) Which party is best suited to solving the Satluj- Yamuna Link Canal issue - Cong, BJP, Akali-Dal, AAP? (3) Which party is best suited to solve the problem of unemployment - Cong, BJP, Akali-Dal, AAP? (4) Which party is best suited to solve the problems being faced by farmers - Cong, BJP, Akali-Dal, AAP?

85% say drug addiction problem is very serious and two-thirds of them are splitting their vote almost between Cong and SAD+; AAP is unable to make major inroads among them.

% Their Vote preference

Vote % for SAD+

Vote % for Cong.

Vote % for AAP+

Vote % for Oth.

Drug addiction problem is very serious 85 31 33 22 14

Drug addiction problem is somewhat serious 8 55 14 17 13

Drug addiction problem is not much serious 2 62 16 20 1

Drug addiction problem is not serious at all 1 64 29 7 0

No response 4 47 24 8 20 The question asked was: In your opinion, how serious is the problem of drug addiction in Punjab – very serious, somewhat serious, not much serious or not serious at all?

Outright support for demonetization in Punjab is low; anti-demonetization vote is getting divided between Congress and AAP

Demonetization was a… % Their Vote preference

Vote % for SAD+

Vote % for Cong.

Vote % for AAP+

Vote % for

Oth.

Right move 28 55 22 15 9

Right move but done without preparation 45 31 31 20 18

Wrong move, should never have been taken 21 18 44 28 10

No response 7 25 29 26 20 The question asked was: People have different opinions regarding the cancellation of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes. Some people believe that this was a right move; some others believe that it was the right move but done without any preparation, while some others say it was a wrong decision that should never have been taken. What is your opinion?

Page 12: Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

Three out of five respondents reported having faced a lot of trouble due to demonetization

While depositing and exchanging old Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes, I…

%

Faced a lot of trouble 60

Faced some trouble 18

Faced little trouble 4

Faced no trouble 12

Faced trouble but it was for the overall good 5

No response 3 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding The question asked was: How much trouble have you faced in depositing or getting exchanged your old Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes – a lot, somewhat, less or none at all?

Only one in five highly optimistic that demonetization will solve black money problem

Demonetization will… %

Solve black money problem a lot 22

Solve black money problem somewhat 34

Not solve black money problem much 11

Not solve black money problem at all 21

No response 12 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding The question asked was: In your opinion, to what extent will the cancellation of old Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes be able to solve the problem of black money - a lot, somewhat, very less or not at all?

Majority among all classes believes that the Common man has suffered more than Rich due to demonetization; Poor more likely than others to believe both have suffered

Common man has suffered more than the Rich

Rich have suffered more than common man

Both have suffered equally

No one has suffered

No response

All 62 13 20 2 2

Rich 65 11 19 2 3

Middle class 57 19 21 1 2

Lower 64 8 18 2 8

Poor 59 9 26 2 4 Note: Figures are percentages; they may not add up to 100 due to rounding The question asked was: People have different opinions regarding the cancellation of old Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes. Some people say that due to this move, the common man has suffered more than the rich. On the other hand, some others say that the rich have suffered more than the common man. What is your opinion?

Page 13: Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

Only one in seven voters believe SAD-BJP stands to benefit a lot electorally from demonetization

Demonetization will…. %

Benefit SAD-BJP a lot in elections 15

Benefit SAD-BJP somewhat in elections 21

Affect SAD-BJP somewhat in elections 9

Affect SAD-BJP a lot in elections 14

Neither benefit nor affect 15

Cannot say 26 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding The question asked was: In your opinion, will the BJP gain or lose from the move to cancel Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes in the election?

Digital reality of Punjab

%

Have an Aadhaar card 95

Someone in household has a bank account 90

Someone in household has a debit/credit card 65

Have a mobile phone (includes both normal and smartphone) 81

Have a smartphone 38

Have a mobile phone with internet access on it 35

Household has a computer/laptop/tablet 30

Household has a computer/laptop/tablet with internet access on it 24

SAD-BJP getting no real advantage among nearly two-third voters who have heard about India’s surgical strike in PoK

Vote % for SAD+

Vote % for Cong.

Vote % for AAP+

Vote % for Oth.

Heard about India’s surgical strike in PoK (62%)

33 30 23 14

Not heard about India’s surgical strike in PoK (38%)

36 32 18 14

Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding The question asked was: Have you heard of the surgical strike conducted by India in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir?

Opinion on who should get credit for India’s PoK surgical strike

%

Indian army should get credit 56

Modi govt. should get credit 15

Both should get credit 21

Neither should get credit 3

No response 4 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding The question asked was: (If heard of the surgical strike) Who among these should get the credit for surgical strikes conducted by India in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir - the Indian army or the Modi government?

Page 14: Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

Opinion on drawing political mileage from India’s PoK surgical strike

%

Drawing political mileage from it is Right 22

Drawing political mileage from it is Wrong 65

No response 14 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding The question asked was: (If heard of the surgical strike) In your opinion, is it right or wrong to make the surgical strikes an election issue?

Over half the voters agreed with proposition that Modi has failed to bring Achhe Din

Narendra Modi has failed to bring Achhe Din

%

Fully agree 34

Somewhat agree 19

Somewhat disagree 14

Fully disagree 25

No response 8 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The question asked was: Do you agree or disagree with this statement- Narendra Modi has failed to bring achhe din (good days)?

Many Congress voters support possibility of Siddhu joining party but many are also indifferent about it; Siddhu effect, if any, will most likely be limited to Majha region.

Support Siddhu joining Congress

Oppose Siddhu joining Congress

No response

All voters 28 20 52

Cong voters 52 9 38

SAD+ voters 14 26 61

AAP+ voters 15 31 54

Oth’s voters 31 16 53

Malwa 23 21 56

Majha 44 16 40

Doaba 29 24 48 Note: Figures are percentages; they may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The question asked was: In your opinion, will Navjot Singh Siddhu’s decision to join Congress be right or wrong?

Page 15: Punjab Pre-Election Survey, December 2016 About the Survey A ...

Majority of AAP voters agreed with the proposition that Punjab CM must be from Punjab, however they were least likely to do so compared to voters of other parties

‘The chief minister of Punjab must be from Punjab’

Agree Disagree

All voters 79 13

Cong voters 82 11

SAD+ voters 83 9

AAP voters 70 21 Note: Figures are percentages The question asked was: Now I will read out a statement. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with it - ‘The chief minister of Punjab must be from Punjab’?

Cong perceived as frontrunner by plurality of voters; many voters didn’t answer

SAD-BJP will win this election

Cong will win this election

AAP will win this election

No Party will win

Other responses

No opinion

All voters 19 24 15 5 1 36

Cong voters 3 58 2 5 2 30

SAD+ voters 50 4 3 5 <1 38

AAP+ voters 1 3 60 3 <1 33 Note: Figures are percentages; they may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The question asked was: In your opinion, which party will win or be the front runner in the upcoming election in Punjab?


Recommended