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Purple Market Research at INSIGHT 2006
November 2006
OLD MEETS NEW: using the Delphi Method to research
the latest technology
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
1. What is the Delphi Method?
2. How can it be applied to market research?
3. Old meets new: using the Delphi Method to research the digital signage market
4. Applications and benefits
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
1. What is the Delphi Method?
2. How can it be applied to market research?
3. Old meets new: using the Delphi Method to research the digital signage market
4. Applications and benefits
4
USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
Origins of the Delphi Method
Originated in the Delphic Oracle
Technique for eliciting and combining judgements systematically from a group of experts
Adopted by science and technology for forecasting (e.g. Rand Corporation)
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
The Delphi Method uses the Hegelian dialectic process…
THESIS
ANTITHESIS SYNTHESIS
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
Putting it another way…
Hypothesis presented by
facilitator
Reactions of expert panel
Analysis of responses
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
Process goes through a number of rounds before final consensus formed
Initial view presented by
facilitator
Reactions of expert panel
Analysis of responses
Final consensus
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
When is Delphi Method suitable?
Researching a new technology or science when trend extrapolation unreliable
When there is little available data
When the data available is inconsistent
When the topic is amorphous
When a topic is complex and difficult to explore by empirical means
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
1. What is the Delphi Method?
2. How can it be applied to market research?
3. Old meets new: using the Delphi Method to research the digital signage market
4. Applications and benefits
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
Applications in market research
Forecasting
Estimating current market size
Profiling markets – key segments, key players, market shares, regional analysis
Estimating market trends
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
When is Delphi Method suitable?
When there is little available data
When the data available is inconsistent
When the topic is amorphous
When a topic is complex and difficult to explore by empirical means
Also…when the budget is limited
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
Applying the Delphi Method to market research
Initial view presented by
facilitator
Reactions of expert panel
Analysis of responses
Final consensus
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
Methods employed
Focus groups / workshops Personal interviews Telephone interviews Online / email
…Usually a mix of the above
Secondary desk research Internal workshops Initial qualitative interviews
Testing
Hypothesis
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
1. What is the Delphi Method?
2. How can it be applied to market research?
3. Old meets new: using the Delphi Method to research the digital signage market
4. Applications and benefits
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
Our case study: the European digital signage market
To better understand the European digital signage market and thereby assist strategic planning
- Estimate the size of the European market- Identify key applications – current and future- Identify key players and market shares- Determine distribution channels & decision making process- Determine market trends- Identify market opportunities for Denon
Client
Product
Business objective
Research objectives
Digital signage media player
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
What is digital signage?
‘The use of digitally connected signs – plasma displays, LCD’s, kiosk stations, computer monitors & televisions – to replace and enhance
traditional media, with all play out content (advertising or information) being centrally or remotely managed and scheduled’
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
What makes the digital signage market difficult to measure?
It’s new and not well documented…
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
What makes the digital signage market difficult to measure?
There is little standardisation…
Digital signage?
Narrowcasting?
Captive Audience Networks / CAN?
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
What makes the digital signage market difficult to measure?
Structure is complex and different analyses include different elements (and double counting?)…
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
What makes the digital signage market difficult to measure?
Data available is incomplete and inconsistent…
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
The Delphi Method in action
Estimated market size and profile based on desk
research
Reactions of expert panel via telephone interviews / emails
Analysis of responses & refinement of
hypothesis
Final consensus
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
Forming an hypothesis through desk research – firstly market value
Global estimates:Digital signage market (retail
only): US$800mWhole digital signage market:
US$1.6bn
USA estimates:Digital signage market:
US$600m
European estimates for digital signage market:
UK: 200m eurosGermany: displays worth 25m
euros…assuming displays are 20% of costs overall digital signage market worth 120m euros
Netherlands: 60m euros
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
Other useful information collected in desk research…
Breakdown of project costs
Also…
Main OEM’s
Units sold / market shares (provisional)
Main distributors and distribution channels
Applications / key target sectors
Player software
Other
Player hardware
Display hardware
Initial project management
Installation
Technical support Management
software
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
Who was in our panel of experts?
Denon Professional
Other OEM’s
Distributors & installers
Trade media / industry commentators
Trade associations (e.g. PLASA, POPAI)
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
Methods employed
Personal interviews Telephone interviews Online / email
Secondary desk research Workshops / consultation within
Denon
Testing
Hypothesis
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
Key deliverables from research
Other deliverables:
Main OEM’s & market share
Distributors & installers
Key applications – retail, hospitality, transport, etc
Trends and growth applications
Opportunities for DenonFrance Germany
UKOther
Europe
Nether lands
Total European market value: 500m euros
Value of media player market: 100m euros
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
1. What is the Delphi Method?
2. How can it be applied to market research?
3. Old meets new: using the Delphi Method to research the digital signage market
4. Applications and benefits
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
Research to gauge potential market for online Health & Safety consultancy service
Analysis of commercial catering market in non-mains gas areas
Potential for LPG consultancy service Analysis of use of LPG in housing market
Estimating the size and profile of the market for entertainment technology
Examples of other successful applications…
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
Applying the Delphi Method
Part of a wider research project – combined with other research…
…or a stand alone project
Appropriate for analysing markets that are poorly documented / complex
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
Benefits of using Delphi Method
A robust alternative to quantitative research
Objective
Simple and explicit
Cost effective
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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY
THANK YOU