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Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M...

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Putting the Middle Market on Top Past, Present & Future
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Page 1: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

Putting the Middle Market on TopPast, Present & Future

Page 2: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

Introduction

Page 3: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

Select US UMM PE deals

3Q 2017

The Middle Market

Middle Marketcompany definition

Based on deal size

Upper Middle Market$500M to $1B

Core Middle Market$100M to $500M

Lower Middle Market$25M to $100M

Audax Group 18

HarbourVest Partners 16

Genstar Capital 13

AlpInvest Partners 12

Hellman & Friedman 11

Company Investor(s) Deal size

EQT Partners $850M

Odyssey Investment Partners $800M

AGIC Group,China Investment Corp. $700M

Vista Equity Partners $564M

Apollo Global Management,Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan $500M

Most active investors

By deal count

Page 4: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

Where are we now?

Page 5: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

US MM M&A deal activity by year

Middle market M&A decline continues

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

# of Deals ClosedDeal Value ($B)

*Through 9/30/2017

The most active year on record in the middle market

Deal activity on track to fall for the third straight year

Page 6: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

US MM M&A multiples by year

Debt usage rises as valuations get frothy

5.2x 4.6x3.5x

4.5x 5.0x 4.3x 5.1x 5.3x 5.4x 5.2x 5.7x

3.4x 4.1x

3.5x3.5x

4.2x4.3x 3.6x

4.3x 4.6x 5.2x 5.0x8.6x 8.7x

7.0x8.0x

9.2x8.6x 8.7x

9.6x10.0x 10.3x 10.7x

0.0x

2.0x

4.0x

6.0x

8.0x

10.0x

12.0x

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

Debt/EBITDA Valuation/EBITDAEquity/EBITDA

*Through 9/30/2017

Valuation/EBITDA

10.7x

Equity/EBITDA

5.0x

Debt/EBITDA

5.7x

2017 US MM M&A Multiples

Page 7: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

In your opinion, what is the most important factor driving mid-market M&A valuations today?

A. Leverage levels

B. Dry powder

C. Public equity valuations

D. Potential tax policy changes

E. Other

Page 8: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

$128.6

$200.0

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

Median US MM PE deal size ($M) by year

Middle market PE deal size ballooned this year

*Through 9/30/2017

$129M

2017

$200M

2016

2016-2017 increase in median US MM PE deal size

+56%

Page 9: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

How did we get here?

Page 10: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

10

US MM PE fundraising activity by year

Mid-market PE fundraising continually strong

0

50

100

150

200

250

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

Capital Raised ($B) # of Funds Closed

*Through 9/30/2017

Select MM funds raised in 2017

Crescent Mezzanine Partners VIIMezzanine – $4.6B

Genstar Capital Partners VIIIBuyout – $4.0B

Veritas Capital Fund VIBuyout – $3.55B

Oak Hill Capital Partners IV Buyout – $2.65B

Page 11: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

All US PE first-time fundraising activity by year

First-time fundraising begins to rebound

# of funds closedCapital raised ($B)

*Through 9/30/2017

First-time managersencouraged by success in the broader fundraising market

First-time fundshave outperformed follow-on competitors in recent vintages

Page 12: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

US MM PE capital overhang ($B) by year

Middle market PE dry powder remains robust

$187

$223

$247

$273 $271

$241 $245$262 $273

$289$332 $310

$309

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

*Through 9/30/2017

2017

2016

2015

Overhang by vintage

Cumulative overhang

$309BDry powder ready

to be deployed

2012

2013

2014

2011

If invested at 2016 rate

4.1 yrs

2010

Page 13: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

$494

$588

$689

$854

$841

$928

$1,0

29

$1,3

08

$1,4

77

$1,4

29

$1,8

53

$2,0

39

$2,1

66

$2,2

88

$2,3

45

$2,0

61

$2,3

79

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Cash on hand ($B)(NASDAQ, NYSE, NYSE American)

Corporate cash growth has slowed

*Source: PitchBook Data –through Q3 each year

Page 14: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

From whom do you currently see the most competition for mid-market deals?A. Corporate acquirers

B. Private equity firms

C. Fund-less sponsors (e.g. family offices, SWFs, etc.)

Page 15: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

US MM PE deals as a % of M&A activity by year

PE as a % of MM M&A highest since 2007

38.57%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

*Through 9/30/2017

Structure of PE fundtimelines means they will continue deploying capital even in times of higher prices

Page 16: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

Add-ons as a % of US MM PE buyouts by year

Add-ons dominate middle market activity

*Through 9/30/2017

Read more in our3Q 2017 PE Analyst Note Exploring Buyout Multiples

add-ons have transacted at a median valuation/EBITDA of 8.4x, compared to 9.0x for non add-ons

Page 17: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

17

% of MM targets without backing

81.3%

79.3%

75%

80%

85%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

*Through 9/30/2017

Targets are increasingly institutionally-backed

Prevalence of secondary buyouts contributes to higher proportion of institutionally-backed targets

Growing PE-backed company inventory means that a larger percentage of available targets already have institutional backing

Page 18: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

What lies ahead

Page 19: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

What will be the most important driver ofdeal flow in 2018?

A. PricingB. Sourcing/Quality of TargetsC. Tax reform/RegulationD. Access to financing/Interest RatesE. Macro environment

Page 21: Putting the Middle Market on Top MidMarket MA Webinar... · 2017. 12. 6. · EQT Partners $850M Odyssey Investment Partners $800M AGIC Group, China Investment Corp. $700M Vista Equity

James GelferSenior Analyst, PitchBook

Dylan CoxAnalyst II, PitchBook


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