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Cost reduction in PV: directions for R&DCost reduction in PV: directions for R&Dredefining the roles of public and private research for the solar age
Wim SinkeECN Solar Energy & European Photovoltaic Technology Platform
www.ecn.nl
ContentsContents
The PV challenges quantifiedThe PV challenges quantified
Building blocks for the solutionBuilding blocks for the solution•• technology portfolio & system approachestechnology portfolio & system approaches
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Dealing with diversityDealing with diversity•• Europe’s approach to R&DEurope’s approach to R&D
Crossing the valleys of deathCrossing the valleys of death•• from incentivefrom incentive--driven to selfdriven to self--sustained marketssustained markets•• from technology push to market pullfrom technology push to market pull
OutlookOutlookBackground photo: www.bso.vvs.be
ContentsContents
The PV challenges quantifiedThe PV challenges quantified
Building blocks for the solutionBuilding blocks for the solution•• technology portfolio & system approachestechnology portfolio & system approaches
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Dealing with diversityDealing with diversity•• Europe’s approach to R&DEurope’s approach to R&D
Crossing the valleys of deathCrossing the valleys of death•• from incentivefrom incentive--driven to selfdriven to self--sustained marketssustained markets•• from technology push to market pullfrom technology push to market pull
OutlookOutlookBackground photo: www.bso.vvs.be
• How much is needed for impact?
• At what cost?
• Under which conditions ?
The challenge quantified
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
• Under which conditions ?
From 10% global electricity to >25% of global energy :
How much is needed for impact?
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
3 ~ >>>>30 TWp
(now 0.05 TWp)
0.05 $/kWh ~ 0.10 €/kWh (or less)
At what cost (price)?
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
From generation cost to system price (or back)not a trivial exercise
Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCoE) determined by:
turn-key system price ($/Wp)• module price + Balance-of-System price
(power-related part & area-related part)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
energy output (kWh/Wp·yr)• primarily dependent on annual insolation• influenced by system quality and design, partial shading, etc.
operation & maintenance cost and replacement/repair ($/Wp·yr)
cost of capital:• depreciation time (yr)• interest rate / Return on Investment required (%)
0.05 $/kWh ~ 0.10 €/kWh (or less):
At what cost (price)?
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
typically
1 $(€)/Wp(now ≥2 € /Wp)
At what cost (price)?The value of efficiency (example)
Moderate efficiency modules(efficiency X%)
High efficiency modules(efficiency 2X%)
modules (0,6 $/W)
area-related BoS (0,2 $/W)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
(efficiency X%)
modules (0,4 $/W)
area-related BoS (0,4 $/W)
power -related BoS and other costs (0,2 $/W)turn-key system price 1 $/Wp
power -related BoS and other costs (0,2 $/W)
Sustainability:
• Supply chain security (and price stability)• Cradle-to-cradle approach• Low (zero, or positive) impact:
Under which conditions?
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
• Low (zero, or positive) impact:• manufacturing• installation• operation• decommissioning
• Public acceptance
MiaSolé
ContentsContents
The PV challenges quantifiedThe PV challenges quantified
Building blocks for the solutionBuilding blocks for the solution•• technology portfolio & system approachestechnology portfolio & system approaches
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Dealing with diversityDealing with diversity•• Europe’s approach to R&DEurope’s approach to R&D
Crossing the valleys of deathCrossing the valleys of death•• from incentivefrom incentive--driven to selfdriven to self--sustained marketssustained markets•• from technology push to market pullfrom technology push to market pull
OutlookOutlookBackground photo: www.bso.vvs.be
Best efficiencies laboratory cells
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
L. Kazmerski
NREL, 2011
Cell & module technologies (flat plate )
Commercial: thin films
Commercial: wafer-based silicon - monocrystalline- multicrystalline- ribbons
Module efficiencies 14 ~ 20%ToyotaToyotaCity of the Sun (NL)City of the Sun (NL)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Commercial: thin films- silicon- copper-indium/gallium-diselenide (CIGS)- cadmium telluride (CdTe)
Module efficiencies 7 ~ 13%First SolarFirst SolarHelianthosHelianthosWürthWürth SolarSolar
Emerging and novel technologies:- super-low-cost concepts
(& technologies for new applications)- super-high-efficiency concepts
Holst Centre/ECN (Solliance)Holst Centre/ECN (Solliance) AmolfAmolf
Cell & module technologies (flat plate )
Commercial: thin films
Commercial: wafer-based silicon - monocrystalline- multicrystalline- ribbons
Module efficiencies 14 ~ 20%ToyotaToyotaCity of the Sun (NL)City of the Sun (NL)
Trends:Trends:• new cell and module architectures• high(er) efficiencies
Trends:Trends:
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Commercial: thin films- silicon- copper-indium/gallium-diselenide (CIGS)- cadmium telluride (CdTe)
Module efficiencies 7 ~ 13%First SolarFirst SolarHelianthosHelianthosWürthWürth SolarSolar
Emerging and novel technologies:- super-low-cost concepts
(& technologies for new applications)- super-high-efficiency concepts
Holst Centre/ECN (Solliance)Holst Centre/ECN (Solliance) AmolfAmolf
Trends:Trends:• increasing scale• differentiation according to application
Trends:Trends:• applications of nanotechnology• synergy with other fields of technology
Cell & module technologies (concentrator)
Commercial: multi-junction III-V semiconductors (and silicon)
Module efficiencies 25 ~ 30%
Abengoa/Concentrix
(FhG-ISE)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Lab: super-high efficiency concepts
Module efficiencies: too early to tell
Evolution of technology portfolio and module efficiencies (IEA PV Roadmap, 2010)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
PV technology shares
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% Wafers and thin films; flat-plate & concentrator
Concentrator PV; emerging technologies
Thin-film CIGS
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 201117 21-11-2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2050
Thin-film CdTe
Thin-film Si
Wafer-based Si
Sources:- Photon International 03 2011- Solar Generation 6- Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau (private comm.)- own estimates
PV technology shares
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% Wafers and thin films; flat-plate & concentrator
Concentrator PV; emerging technologies
Thin-film CIGS
gigawatts
megawattsinstalled
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 201118 21-11-2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2050
Thin-film CdTe
Thin-film Si
Wafer-based Si
Sources:- Photon International 03 2011- Solar Generation 6- Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau (private comm.)- own estimates
terawattsinstalled
gigawattsinstalled
System approaches
• (k)Wp to GWp• stand-alone, grid-connected, minigrid• BAPV, BIPV, ground based, and more• single-purpose or multifunctional• PV-only or hybrid (PV-T, PV-wind, etc.)• fixed orientation, one & two-axis tracking
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
• fixed orientation, one & two-axis tracking• modular or central design• and more
19
Sharp Corp. Mun. Heerhugowaard Enel Phoenix Solar
Diversity: blessing or curse?
Blessing:• robust development• confidence in the future: we ain’t seen nothing yet• ability to serve a wide range of applications and mark ets
Curse:
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
• dilution of resourses• confusion and hesitance among potential users (what is
best, why not wait?)• tendency to flee forward
20
Diversity: blessing or curse?
Blessing:• robust development• confidence in the future: we ain’t seen nothing yet• ability to serve a wide range of applications and mark ets
Curse:
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
• dilution of resourses• confusion and hesitance among potential users (what is
best, why not wait?)• tendency to flee forward
Overall:• diversity has brought us where we are and will bring us
where we want to be
21
ContentsContents
The PV challenges quantifiedThe PV challenges quantified
Building blocks for the solutionBuilding blocks for the solution•• technology portfolio & system approachestechnology portfolio & system approaches
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Dealing with diversityDealing with diversity•• Europe’s approach to R&DEurope’s approach to R&D
Passing the valleys of deathPassing the valleys of death•• from incentivefrom incentive--driven to selfdriven to self--sustained marketssustained markets•• from technology push to market pullfrom technology push to market pull
OutlookOutlookBackground photo: www.bso.vvs.be
Europe’s joint approach:Strategic Energy Technology Plan
EuropeanEuropeanIndustrialIndustrialInitiativesInitiatives
(EII’s)(EII’s)
EuropeanEuropeanEnergyEnergy
ResearchResearchAllianceAlliance(EERA)(EERA)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
(EII’s)(EII’s)(EERA)(EERA)
Monitoring and steering:Monitoring and steering:
SETSET--PlanPlanInformationInformation
SystemSystem(SETIS)(SETIS)
the Solar Europe Industry Initiative(EPIA & European PV Technology Platform)
COSTCOSTREDUCTIONREDUCTION
volume+
LARGELARGE--SCALESCALEDEPLOYMENTDEPLOYMENT
market deployment
R&D + demonstration
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
+innovation
INTEGRATIONINTEGRATION
grid+
builtenvironment
DEPLOYMENTDEPLOYMENT
&
INDUSTRYCOMPETITIVENESS
R&D + demonstration
PV system integration
smart grids & integrationof other renewables
SolarSolar Europe Europe IndustryIndustryInitiative (SEII)Initiative (SEII)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Development targets SRA2
Today 2020 2030Long term potential
Typical turn-key price for 100 kWpsystem (2011 €/Wp, excl. VAT)
2.5 1.5 1 0.5
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
100 kWp commercial roof system, ItalyPR of 80%, yield of 1440 kWh/kWp25 year lifetime, discount rate of 6.5%Current and 2020 values consistent with SEII KPIs
Typical electricity generation costs, Southern Europe (2011 €/kWh)
0.19 0.10 0.06 0.03
Typical system energy payback time, Southern Europe (years) 0.5-1.5 <0.5 <0.5 0.25
General scientific & technological challenges forPV cells & modules (selection)
High performance (= high efficiency & high annual yi eld)• maximize absorption; minimize recombination losses• apply efficient concentration (high X, light trapping)• utilize full spectrum (multi gap, multi band, multi carrier, photon
conversion, and more)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Low cost• high efficiency (leverage at all levels)• low materials cost (ultra-thin layers, low-cost materials)• high-throughput processing (vacuum & non-vacuum)
Sustainability• minimum materials & energy use; (design for) recycling• alternative materials (CIS � CZTS, Ag � Cu, etc.)
General scientific & technological challenges forPV systems (selection)
High performance (= high efficiency & high annual yi eld)• sun tracking• high availability (system reliability)• low electrical losses (DC/AC conversion, cabling, mismatch, etc.)• (self) cleaning
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Low cost• high efficiency• low materials cost• fast preparation & installation, low maintenance, replacement & repair
Sustainability• “low BoS” designs, low-energy, abundant materials• (design for) recycling
General scientific & technological challenges forsystem integration (selection)
High performance• electrical integration: avoid having to switch down or off• physical integration: optimize system lay-out, select optimum sites
Low cost• electrical integration: concepts & technologies for high penetration
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
• electrical integration: concepts & technologies for high penetration(see e.g. prof. Martin Braun’s (FhG-IWES) and dr. Tim Meyer’s (DTMC))
• physical integration: standardisation, prefab, integrated fixtures, click-on/click-off, etc.
Sustainability• electrical integration: optimize energy technology portfolio• physical integration: low-impact & durable materials (design for)
recycling, low intrusion, good aesthetics
ContentsContents
The PV challenges quantifiedThe PV challenges quantified
Building blocks for the solutionBuilding blocks for the solution•• technology portfolio & system approachestechnology portfolio & system approaches
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Dealing with diversityDealing with diversity•• Europe’s approach to R&DEurope’s approach to R&D
Crossing the valleys of deathCrossing the valleys of death•• from incentivefrom incentive--driven to selfdriven to self--sustained marketssustained markets•• from technology push to market pullfrom technology push to market pull
OutlookOutlookBackground photo: www.bso.vvs.be
• Don’t oversell (grid parity on consumer level in one country is not enough)
• Quality first (TW-scale use requires professional quality, not just bottom-low prices: “Trust comes by foot and leaves by horse”)
Develop bridging business (& system) concepts
From incentive-driven to self-sustained markets
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
• Develop bridging business (& system) concepts
• Commercial companies build up in-house R&D capacity
• Industry sets the agenda in major R&D programs
• Governments (EC and countries) want to see near-term a nd nearby results
From technology push to market pull
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
nearby results
• Role of public research shifts:
from multi-parter joint development projects to more emphasis on:
• open innovation models• bilateral competitive R&D• developing high-risk high-potential options (beyond industry scope)
ContentsContents
The PV challenges quantifiedThe PV challenges quantified
Building blocks for the solutionBuilding blocks for the solution•• technology portfolio & system approachestechnology portfolio & system approaches
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Dealing with diversityDealing with diversity•• Europe’s approach to R&DEurope’s approach to R&D
Crossing the valleys of deathCrossing the valleys of death•• from incentivefrom incentive--driven to selfdriven to self--sustained marketssustained markets•• from technology push to business pullfrom technology push to business pull
OutlookOutlookBackground photo: www.bso.vvs.be
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 201134
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 201135
Outlook
• Cost reduction: factor 5
• Efficiency enhancement: factor 2
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 201136
• Volume increase: factor 100-1000
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 20119 March 2010
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