PV MAGAZINE WEBINAR
DAVID DIXON, SENIOR ANALYST – AUSTRALIA RENEWABLES
04/08/2020
Contents
Source: Rystad Energy
1) The pipeline2) The players3) The outlook
Australia utility PV, wind and storage pipeline: 9/7/2020
Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube
173 GWAC
903 Assets
~1/10 projects reach Financial
Close
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Solar PV
Onshore wind
Lithium ion batteries
Pumped storage
Hydrogen Electrolyser
GWAC
1. Concept2. DA Application3. DA Approved4. Financial Close5. Construction6. Operating
138 Assets25 GWAC
502 Assets72 GWAC
Utility PV Developers & OEMs – Competition or concentration characterises the key stakeholders
Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Neoen
WIRSOL
John Laing
FRV
Octopus Investments
MWAC
Top 5 Utility PV Developers
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200
Canadian Solar
Jinko
First Solar
JA Solar
Longi
MWAC
Top 5 Panel Suppliers
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000
NEXTracker
Array Technologies
Arctech
IDEEMATEC
Soltec
MWAC
Top 5 Tracker Suppliers
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000
SMA
Ingeteam
Schneider
Huawei
Power Electronics
MWAC
Top 5 Inverter Suppliers
Utility PV EPCs
Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1 000
RCR Tomlinson
Downer
Sterling & Wilson
Biosar
Signal Energy
Bouygues
UGL
Beon Energy Solutions
Elecnor
Decmil
Gransolar
First Solar
Shanghai Electric Power Design
Risen Energy
Lendlease
MWAC
Western Downs4. Financial Close5. Construction6. Operating
Australia utility battery developers
Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
HPR
Sta
ge 1
Wan
doan
Sou
th
HPR
Sta
ge 2
Kood
aide
ri M
ine
New
man
Bat
tery
York
e Pe
nins
ula
Balla
rat
GES
S
Lake
Bon
ney
Bulg
ana
MW
AC
Utility batteries > 20 MWAC, coloured by battery system supplier
TeslaSamsung-ABBKokam-ABBFluence (LG-PE)Yet to be announced
0 50 100 150 200
Neoen
Vena Energy
Rio Tinto
Alinta
AusNet
ElectraNet
Infigen Energy
EDL
Edify Energy
WIRSOL
MWAC
Top 10 utility battery developers, coloured by asset
Hornsdale Power Reserve Stage 1
Wandoan South
Hornsdale Power Reserve Stage 2
Koodaideri Mine Solar Farm
Newman Battery Storage Project
Yorke Peninsula
Ballarat
Gannawarra Energy Storage System
Lake Bonney
Bulgana Green Power Hub
Agnew Mine Hybrid Project
De Grussa
Mallacoota Area Grid Storage
Key Drivers: Utility PVa) Continued cost reductionsb) Module and inverter technology advancing
rapidly
Challenges: Utility PV
a) Saturation effect -> reduced wholesale prices
b) Grid: Network capacity / MLFs / system strength
c) Harder to find offtake
Key Drivers: Batteriesa) Economics already favourable in off-grid market.b) Government programs / Grants: NSW, VIC, ACT,
ARENAc) 5 minute settlement ruled) Battery cost reductionse) System security
Challenges: Batteries
a) FCAS: Small market, uncertain revenue
b) Arbitrage too expensive, uncertain revenue
c) Not all services valued, e.g. inertia, FFR
d) Security services typically monetised through regulated TNSPs, e.g. SIPs
Key Drivers / Challenges
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, Transgrid 2020 Annual Transmission Planning Report
Bannerton
Beryl
Broken Hill
Bungala Phase 1
Clare
Clermont
Coleambally
Collinsville
Darling Downs
Daydream
Emerald (RES)
Gannawarra
Griffith
Hamilton
Haughton Stage 1
Hayman
Karadoc
Kidston
Lilyvale Manildra
Moree
Numurkah
Nyngan
Oakey
Parkes
Ross River
Rugby Run Stage 1
Sun Metals
Susan River
Tailem Bend
Wemen
Whitsunday
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105%
19/2
0 Fi
nanc
ial Y
ear A
C C
F (%
)
19/20 FY MLF
Grid: Poor position but not constrained (… yet)
Equipment failures or impact of non technical risks (e.g. negative pricing)
Multiple challenges: Grid Position (constrained), negative pricing, equipment failures
The sweetspot (…for now)
Short term forecast: Utility PV, wind and storage
Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
GW
AC
Year Commissioning Complete
Solar PVOnshore windLithium
Rystad Energy is an independent energy consulting services and business intelligence data firm offering global databases, strategy advisory and research products for energy companies and suppliers, investors, investment banks, organizations, and governments. Rystad Energy’s headquarters are located in Oslo, Norway.
HeadquartersRystad EnergyFjordalléen 16, 0250 Oslo, Norway
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Email: [email protected]
© Copyright. All rights reserved.
Short Term Forecast: Utility PV, wind and storage
Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
GW
AC
Year Commissioning Complete
6. Operating5. Construction4. Financial Close3. DA Approved
Key Drivers / Challenges
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ballarat EnergyStorage System
(2018)
Lake BonneyEnergy Storage
(2018)
GannawarraEnergy StorageSystem (2018)
Hornsdale Phase2 (2019)
Yorke Peninsula(2019)
CAP
EX/k
Wh
(AU
D/k
Wh)
CAP
EX (M
MAU
D)
Project Funded ARENA Funded CAPEX
Australia utility PV, wind and storage pipeline: 1/1/2019
Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube
88.5 GWAC
544 Assets
~1/10 projects reach Financial
Close
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Solar PV
Onshore wind
Lithium ion batteries
Pumped storage
Hydrogen Electrolyser
GWAC
1. Concept2. DA Application3. DA Approved4. Financial Close5. Construction6. Operating
Australia utility PV, wind and storage pipeline: 1/1/2020
Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube
144 GWAC
798 Assets
~1/10 projects reach Financial
Close
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Solar PV
Onshore wind
Lithium ion batteries
Pumped storage
Hydrogen Electrolyser
GWAC
1. Concept2. DA Application3. DA Approved4. Financial Close5. Construction6. Operating
Key Drivers: Utility PVa) Continued cost reductionsb) Module and inverter technology advancing
rapidly
Challenges: Utility PV
a) Saturation effect -> reduced wholesale prices
b) Grid: Network capacity / MLFs / system strength
c) Harder to find offtake
Key Drivers: Batteriesa) Economics already favourable in off-grid market.b) Government programs / Grants: NSW, VIC, ACT,
ARENAc) 5 minute settlement ruled) Battery cost reductionse) System security
Challenges: Batteries
a) FCAS: Small market, uncertain revenue
b) Arbitrage too expensive, uncertain revenue
c) Not all services valued, e.g. inertia, FFR
d) Security services typically monetised through regulated TNSPs, e.g. SIPs
Key Drivers / Challenges
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, Transgrid 2020 Annual Transmission Planning Report
0 capacity
100 MW
400 MW