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July2002 Cohabitation,Marriage,

Divorce,andRemarriageintheUnitedStates

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Divorce,andRemarriageintheUnitedStates

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Copyright informationAllmaterialappearing inthisreport is inthepublicdomainandmaybereproducedorcopiedwithoutpermission;citationastosource,however, isappreciated.SuggestedcitationBramlettMDandMosherWD.Cohabitation,Marriage,Divorce,andRemarriageintheUnitedStates.NationalCenterforHealthStatistics.VitalHealthStat23(22).2002.

LibraryofCongress-in-PublicationDataCohabitation,marriage,divorce,andremarriage intheUnitedStates.

p.cm.(Vitalandhealthstatistics.Series.23,Datafromthenationalsurveyoffamilygrowth;no22)

ISBN0-8406-0582-X1.MarriageUnitedStatesStatistics.2.WomenUnitedStates

Statistics.3.UnmarriedcouplesUnitedStatesStatistics.4.DivorceUnitedStatesStatistics.5.RemarriageUnitedStatesStatistics.I.NationalCenterforHealthStatistics(U.S.)II.Series.HB1125.C642002306.81.097309049dc21

2002075369ForsalebytheU.S.GovernmentPrintingOfficeSuperintendentofDocumentsMailStop:SSOPWashington,DC20402-9328Printedonacid-freepaper.

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Series23,Number22

Cohabitation,Marriage,Divorce,andRemarriageintheUnitedStates

DataFromtheNationalSurveyofFamilyGrowth

DEPARTMENTOFHEALTHANDHUMANSERVICESCentersforDiseaseControlandPreventionNationalCenterforHealthStatisticsHyattsville,MarylandJuly2002DHHSPublicationNo.(PHS)2002-1998

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NationalCenterforHealthStatisticsEdwardJ.Sondik,Ph.D.,DirectorJackR.Anderson,DeputyDirectorJackR.Anderson,ActingAssociateDirectorforInternationalStatisticsJenniferH.Madans,Ph.D.,AssociateDirectorforScienceLawrenceH.Cox,Ph.D.,AssociateDirectorforResearchandMethodologyJenniferH.Madans,Ph.D.,ActingAssociateDirectorforAnalysis,Epidemiology,andHealthPromotionP.DouglasWilliams,ActingAssociateDirectorforDataStandards,ProgramDevelopment,andExtramuralProgramsEdwardL.Hunter,AssociateDirectorforPlanning,Budget,andLegislationJenniferH.Madans,Ph.D.,ActingAssociateDirectorforVitalandHealthStatisticsSystemsDouglasL.Zinn,ActingAssociateDirectorforManagementandOperationsCharlesJ.Rothwell,AssociateDirectorforInformationTechnologyandServicesDivisionofVitalStatisticsMaryAnneFreedman,DirectorJamesA.Weed,Ph.D.,DeputyDirector

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Contents

Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Highlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Trends and Differences in Marriage and Divorce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Data Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Life Tables on Marriage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Community Distributions by Race/Ethnicity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Cohabitation and Marital Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10The Probability of First Marriage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

The Probability That an Intact First Cohabitation Makes the Transition to Marriage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

The Probability of First Cohabitation Disruption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

The Probability of First Marriage Disruption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

The Probability of Cohabitation After the End of First Marriage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

The Probability of Separation Making the Transition to Divorce. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

The Probability of Remarriage Following Divorce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

The Probability of Second Marriage Disruption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

Trends Over Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Summary of Findings for Each Independent Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Appendix I

Technical Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89

Definitions of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89

Sample Sizes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

Sampling Errors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

Appendix II

Appendix II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93

Text TablesA. Number of women 1544 years of age (in thousands) and percent distributions, by race/ethnicity and contextual

variables: United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

B. Number of women 1544 years of age (in thousands) and percent distribution, by past cohabitation and marital status

and by age at interview and race/ethnicity: United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

C. Number of women 1544 years of age (in thousands) and percent distribution, by current cohabitation and marital

status and by age at interview and race/ethnicity: United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

ii

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D. Probabilitiesoffirstmarriagedisruption,oftransitionfromseparationtodivorce,ofremarriage,andofsecondmarriage disruption by race/ethnicity and cohort: United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

E. Statistical significance of each individual characteristic by outcome . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29F. Statistical significance of each contextual characteristic by outcome . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30ListofFigures

1. Probability of first marriage by age and race/ethnicity: United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112. Probability of first marriage by ages 18 and 30 by race/ethnicity: United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123. Probability of first marriage by age and importance of religion: United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124. Probabilityoffirstmarriagebyage18bycommunitymaleunemploymentrate,medianfamilyincome,percentbelow

poverty, and percent receiving public assistance: United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135. Probabilityoffirstmarriagebyage30byrace/ethnicityandmetropolitanstatus:UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136. Probability thatanintactcohabitationmakes thetransitiontofirstmarriagebydurationofcohabitationand

race/ethnicity: United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137. Probability thatanintactcohabitationmakes thetransitiontofirstmarriagewithin5yearsbyrace/ethnicityand

family income: United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148. Probability thatanintactcohabitationmakes thetransitiontofirstmarriagewithin5yearsbyreligiousaffiliation:

United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149. Probability thatanintactcohabitationmakes thetransitiontofirstmarriagebydurationofcohabitationand

importance of religion: Non-Hispanic white women, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1410. Probability thatanintactcohabitationmakes thetransitiontofirstmarriagewithin5yearsbycommunitymale

unemploymentrate,medianfamily income,percentbelowpoverty,andpercentreceivingpublicassistance:United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

11. Probability thatanintactcohabitationmakes thetransitiontofirstmarriagewithin5yearsbyrace/ethnicityandmale unemployment rate in the community: United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

12. Probability that thefirstcohabitationbreaksupbydurationofcohabitationandrace/ethnicity:UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

13. Probability that thefirstcohabitationbreaksupbydurationofcohabitationandageatthebeginningofcohabitation: United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

14. Probability that thefirstcohabitationbreaksupwithin10yearsbyrace/ethnicityandageat thebeginningofcohabitation: United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

15. Probability that thefirstcohabitationbreaksupwithin5yearsbyrace/ethnicityandforcedintercoursebeforecohabitation: United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

16. Probability that thefirstcohabitationbreaksupwithin10yearsbycommunitymaleunemploymentrate,medianfamilyincome,percentbelowpoverty,andpercentreceivingpublicassistance:UnitedStates,1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

17. Probability that thefirstcohabitationbreaksupwithin10yearsbyrace/ethnicityandmaleunemploymentrate inthecommunity: United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

18. Probability that thefirstmarriagebreaksupbydurationofmarriageandrace/ethnicity:UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

19. Probability that thefirstmarriagebreaksupwithin10yearsbyrace/ethnicityandageat thebeginningofmarriage:United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

20. Probability that thefirstmarriagebreaksupbydurationofmarriageand importanceofreligion:UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

21. Probability that thefirstmarriagebreaksupwithin10yearsbyrace/ethnicityand intactstatusoffamilyoforigin:United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

22. Probability that thefirstmarriagebreaksupwithin10yearsbyrace/ethnicityandforced intercourse:UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

23. Probability that thefirstmarriagebreaksupwithin5yearsbyrace/ethnicityand timingoffirstbirth:UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1924. Probability that thefirstmarriagebreaksupwithin15yearsbyrace/ethnicityandgeneralizedanxietydisorder:

United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1925. Probability that thefirstmarriagebreaksupbydurationofmarriageandracedifferencewithhusband:

United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2026. Probability that thefirstmarriagebreaksupwithin10yearsbycommunitymaleunemploymentrate,median

familyincome,percentbelowpoverty,andpercentreceivingpublicassistance:UnitedStates,1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2027. Probability that thefirstmarriagebreaksupwithin10yearsbyrace/ethnicityandmedianfamilyincome in the

community: United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20iv

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28. Probabilityofpostmaritalcohabitationbydurationofseparationandrace/ethnicity:UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . 2129. Probabilityofpostmaritalcohabitationbydurationofseparationandreligiousaffiliation:UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . 2130. Probabilityofpostmaritalcohabitationwithin10yearsofseparationbyrace/ethnicityandparityatseparation:

United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2131. Probabilityofpostmaritalcohabitationwithin10yearsofseparationbycommunitymaleunemploymentrate,

medianfamilyincome,percentbelowpoverty,andpercentreceivingpublicassistance:UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . 2232. Probabilityof transitionfromseparation todivorcebydurationofseparationandrace/ethnicity:UnitedStates,1995 .. 2233. Probabilityof transitionfromseparation todivorcewithin3yearsofseparationbycommunitymaleunemployment

rate,medianfamilyincome,percentbelowpoverty,andpercentreceivingpublicassistance:UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . 2334.

Probability

of

remarriage

by

duration

of

divorce

and

race/ethnicity:

United

States,

1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2335. Probabilityofremarriagewithin10yearsofdivorcebyrace/ethnicityandageatdivorce:UnitedStates,1995 . . . . . . . 23

36. Probabilityofremarriagewithin10yearsofdivorcebycommunitymaleunemploymentrate,medianfamilyincome,percentbelowpoverty,andpercentreceivingpublicassistance:UnitedStates,1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

37. Probabilityofremarriagewithin5yearsofdivorcebyrace/ethnicityandmetropolitanstatus:UnitedStates,1995. . . . . 2438. Probability that thesecondmarriagebreaksupbydurationofmarriageandrace/ethnicity:UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . 2439. Probability that thesecondmarriagebreaksupwithin10yearsbyrace/ethnicityandageatremarriage:

United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2540. Probability that thesecondmarriagebreaksupwithin10yearsbyrace/ethnicityandintactfamilyoforigin:

United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2541. Probability that thesecondmarriagebreaksupwithin10yearsbyrace/ethnicityandforced intercourse:

United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2542. Probability that thesecondmarriagebreaksupwithin10yearsbyrace/ethnicityandgeneralizedanxietydisorder:

United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2643. Probability that thesecondmarriagebreaksupwithin10yearsbyrace/ethnicityandpresenceofunwantedchildren at remarriage: United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

44. Probability that thesecondmarriagebreaksupwithin10yearsbycommunitymaleunemploymentrate,medianfamilyincome,percentbelowpoverty,andpercentreceivingpublicassistance:UnitedStates,1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

45. Probabilityoffirstmarriagedisruptionwithin10yearsbymarriagecohortandrace/ethnicity:UnitedStates,marriagesbegun in 195084 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

46. Probabilityof transitionfromseparation todivorcewithin5yearsbymarriagecohortandrace/ethnicity:United States, marriages begun in 195084 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

47. Probabilityofremarriagewithin5yearsbydivorcecohortandrace/ethnicity:UnitedStates,divorcesoccurringin195089. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

48. Probabilityofsecondmarriagedisruptionwithin5yearsbymarriagecohortandrace/ethnicity:UnitedStates,marriages begun in 195084 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

ListofDetailedTables1. Probabilityoffirstmarriagebydurationsinceage15andselectedcharacteristics:Allraces,women1544years

of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352. Probabilityoffirstmarriagebydurationsinceage15andselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Allraces,women

1544 years of age, United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363. Probabilityoffirstmarriagebydurationsinceage15andselectedcharacteristics:Hispanicwomen1544yearsof

age, United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 374. Probabilityoffirstmarriagebydurationsinceage15andselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Hispanicwomen1544

years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385. Probabilityoffirstmarriagebydurationsinceage15andselectedcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicwhitewomen1544years

of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396. Probabilityoffirstmarriagebydurationsinceage15andselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicwhitewomen 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 407. Probabilityoffirstmarriagebydurationsinceage15andselectedcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicblackwomen1544

years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 418. Probabilityoffirstmarriagebydurationsinceage15andselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicblack

women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429. Probability thatanintactfirstcohabitationmakes thetransitiontomarriagebydurationofcohabitationandselected

characteristics: All races, women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4310. Probability thatanintactfirstcohabitationmakes thetransitiontomarriagebydurationofcohabitationandselected

contextualcharacteristics:Allraces,women1544yearsofage,UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44v

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11. Probability thatanintactfirstcohabitationmakes thetransitiontomarriagebydurationofcohabitationandselectedcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicwhitewomen1544yearsofage,UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

12. Probability thatanintactfirstcohabitationmakes thetransitiontomarriagebydurationofcohabitationandselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicwhitewomen1544yearsofage,UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

13. Probability thatanintactfirstcohabitationmakes thetransitiontomarriagebydurationofcohabitationandselectedcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicblackwomen1544yearsofage,UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

14. Probability thatanintactfirstcohabitationmakes thetransitiontomarriagebydurationofcohabitationandselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicblackwomen1544yearsofage,UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

15. Probabilityoffirstcohabitationdisruptionbydurationofcohabitationandselectedcharacteristics:Allraces,women1544 years of age, United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4916. Probabilityoffirstcohabitationdisruptionbydurationofcohabitationandselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Allraces,

women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5017. Probabilityoffirstcohabitationdisruptionbydurationofcohabitationandselectedcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicwhite

women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5118. Probabilityoffirstcohabitationdisruptionbydurationofcohabitationandselectedcontextualcharacteristics:

Non-Hispanic white women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5219. Probabilityoffirstcohabitationdisruptionbydurationofcohabitationandselectedcharacteristics:Non-Hispanic

black women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5320. Probabilityoffirstcohabitationdisruptionbydurationofcohabitationandselectedcontextualcharacteristics:

Non-Hispanic black women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5421. Probabilityoffirstmarriagedisruptionbydurationofmarriageandselectedcharacteristics:Allraces,women1544

years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5522. Probabilityoffirstmarriagedisruptionbydurationofmarriageandselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Allraces,women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5723. Probabilityoffirstmarriagedisruptionbydurationofmarriageandselectedcharacteristics:Hispanicwomen1544

years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5824. Probabilityoffirstmarriagedisruptionbydurationofmarriageandselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Hispanic

women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6025. Probabilityoffirstmarriagedisruptionbydurationofmarriageandselectedcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicwhite

women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6126. Probabilityoffirstmarriagedisruptionbydurationofmarriageandselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Non-Hispanic

white women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6327. Probabilityoffirstmarriagedisruptionbydurationofmarriageandselectedcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicblack

women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6428. Probabilityoffirstmarriagedisruptionbydurationofmarriageandselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Non-Hispanic

black women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6629. Probabilityofpostmaritalcohabitationbydurationofseparationandselectedcharacteristics:Allraces,women

1544 years of age, United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6730. Probabilityofpostmaritalcohabitationbydurationofseparationandselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Allraces,

women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6931. Probabilityofpostmaritalcohabitationbydurationofseparationandselectedcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicwhite

women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7032. Probabilityofpostmaritalcohabitationbydurationofseparationandselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Non-Hispanic

white women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7133. Probability thataseparationfromfirstmarriagemakes thetransition todivorcebydurationofseparationand

selected characteristics: All races, women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7234. Probability thataseparationfromfirstmarriagemakes thetransition todivorcebydurationofseparationand

selectedcontextualcharacteristics:Allraces,women1544yearsofage,UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7435. Probability thataseparationfromfirstmarriagemakes thetransition todivorcebydurationofseparationandselected

characteristics:Non-Hispanicwhitewomen1544yearsofage,UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7536. Probability thataseparationfromfirstmarriagemakes thetransition todivorcebydurationofseparationandselected

contextualcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicwhitewomen1544yearsofage,UnitedStates,1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7737. Probabilityofremarriagebydurationofdivorceandselectedcharacteristics:Allraces,women1544yearsofage,

United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7838. Probabilityofremarriagebydurationofdivorceandselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Allraces,women1544years

of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8039. Probabilityofremarriagebydurationofdivorceandselectedcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicwhitewomen1544years

of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81vi

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40. Probabilityofremarriagebydurationofdivorceandselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicwhitewomen1544 years of age, United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

41. Probabilityofsecondmarriagedisruptionbydurationofremarriageandselectedcharacteristics:Allraces,women1544 years of age, United States, 1995. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

42. Probabilityofsecondmarriagedisruptionbydurationofremarriageandselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Allraces,women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

43. Probabilityofsecondmarriagedisruptionbydurationofremarriageandselectedcharacteristics:Non-Hispanicwhitewomen 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

44. Probabilityofsecondmarriagedisruptionbydurationofremarriageandselectedcontextualcharacteristics:Non-Hispanic white women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

88

AppendixTablesI. Sample sizes by race/ethnicity: 1995 National Survey of Family Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92II. First marriage life table estimates: Women 1544 years of age, United States, 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93

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ObjectivesThisreportpresentsnational

estimatesoftheprobabilitiesofmaritalandcohabitationoutcomesforwomen1544yearsofage in1995,byawidevarietyof individual- andcommunity-levelcharacteristics.The life-tableanalysis inthisreporttakesa lifecycleapproachtoestimatetheprobabilitiesthat:+ awomanwillmarryforthefirsttime,+ an intactfirstcohabitationwillmake

thetransitiontomarriage,+ afirstcohabitationwillend in

separation,+ afirstmarriagewillend inseparation

ordivorce,+ adisruptedfirstmarriagewillbe

followedbyanewcohabitation,+ aseparationfromfirstmarriagewill

result indivorce,+ adivorcefromfirstmarriagewillbe

followedbyremarriage,and+ asecondmarriagewillend in

separationordivorce.Methods

The life-tableestimatespresentedherearebasedonanationallyrepresentativesampleofwomen1544yearsofage in theUnitedStates in1995fromtheNationalSurveyofFamilyGrowth,Cycle5.Results

Theanalysesshowthatvariousindividualandcommunity-levelcharacteristicsarerelatedtothemaritalandcohabitationaloutcomesexaminedinthisreport.Theresultsconsistentlydemonstrate thatthecohabitationsandmarriagesofnon-Hispanicblackwomenare lessstablethanthoseofnon-Hispanicwhitewomen.Ananalysisoftrendsovertimesuggeststhatdifferencesbyrace/ethnicityarebecomingmorepronounced inrecentyears.Racialdifferencesobservedareassociatedwith individualcharacteristicsandwiththecharacteristicsof thecommunities inwhichthewomen live.Keywords:cohabitationcmarriagecseparationcdivorcecremarriageccontext

Cohabitation,Marriage,Divorce,andRemarriagein theUnitedStatesMatthewD.Bramlett,Ph.D.andWilliamD.Mosher,Ph.D.,DivisionofVitalStatistics

Highlights

T

hisreportpresentsdatafromCycle5of theNationalSurveyofFamilyGrowth(NSFG).The

NSFGisanationallyrepresentativesurveyfocusedonmarriage,divorce,contraception,infertility,andotherfactorsaffectingpregnancyandbirthratesandwomenshealth.Cycle5oftheNSFGwasbasedonface-to-faceinterviewswith10,847women1544yearsofage in1995.Theanalysisoftrendsin thisreport isbasedondatafrom the1973,1976,1988,and1995cyclesoftheNSFG.Forconvenience inwritingin thetextof thisreport,non-Hispanicwhitewomenareoftenreferred toaswhiteandnon-Hispanicblackwomenareoftenreferredtoasblack.Thefulllabelsarealwaysusedinthetablesandgraphs.

Thisreportcontains44detailedtablesshowinganalysesofeightoutcomesrelated tocohabitationandmarriage:theprobability thatawomanwillmarryforthefirsttime, theprobabilitythatan intactfirstpremaritalcohabitationwillbecomeamarriage,theprobability

that

afirst

premarital

cohabitationwillbreakup,the

probability thatafirstmarriagewillbreakup, theprobabilitythatawomanwhosefirstmarriagehasdisruptedwillenteranewcohabitation, theprobabilitythataseparationfromfirstmarriagewillbecomea legaldivorce, theprobabilitythatadivorcedwomanwillremarry,andtheprobabilityofsecondmarriagedisruption.Awidevarietyofcharacteristicsofwomenandthecommunitiesinwhich theyliveareusedtoexaminethesecohabitationandmaritaloutcomes.

Theanalysesinthisreportareintendedtoprovideastatisticaldescription,notadefinitiveorexhaustiveexplanationof thesetopics.Thedatashownhereareintended tosuggest thatbothcharacteristicsofindividualsand thecommunitiesinwhich they liveareoften importantfactorsinunderstandingcohabitationandmarriageand toencourageresearchers toconsiderthesefactorswhenstudyingthese issues.Thisreportalsoattemptstoshedlightonatleastfiveimportant issuesin therecentstatistical literatureonmarriageanddivorce:+ Whataretherecent trends inmarital

breakup,divorce,andremarriage?+ Do the trendsin theseoutcomesdifferbyrace/ethnicity?

The1995NationalSurveyofFamilyGrowthwasjointlyplannedandfundedprimarilybytheNationalCenterforHealthStatistics, theNationalInstituteforChildHealthandHumanDevelopment(NICHD),theOfficeofPopulationAffairs,and theNationalCenterforHIV,STD,andTBPrevention,withadditionalsupportfrom theChildrensBureau.Theauthorsgratefullyacknowledgethe technicalassistanceofWayneE.Johnson,Ph.D.,of theOfficeofResearchandMethodologyforassistance inestimatingstandarderrorsof thestatistics in thisreport.TheauthorsgratefullyacknowledgethehelpfulreviewandcommentsofDr.V.JefferyEvansofNICHD.ThisreportwaseditedbyPatriciaKeaton-Williams,graphicsproducedbyJarmilaOgburn,andtypesetbyJacquelineM.Davis.

Page1

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Page2 [ Series23,No.22+ Arecharacteristicsofcommunities

relatedtocouplessuccess inmarriage?

+ Isthestatisticalportraitofmarriageaffected ifwemeasureunmarriedcohabitationandseparationfrommarriageaswellaslegalmarriageand

divorce?

+ Whatdemographic,economic,and

socialfactorsaffect thechancesthatmarriagewillsucceedorfail?

Whatarethetrends?Ourdatashowanincrease inthechances thatfirstmarriageswillend(inseparationordivorce)formarriagesthatbeganinthe1950s through the1970s.Fromtheearly1970s tothe late1980s, theratesofbreakupwerefairlystable.Theprobabilityofremarriagefollowingdivorcehasdecreasedslightly,and theprobability that thesecondmarriagewillbreakuphasrisenfrom the1950sto the1980s.Dothetrendsdifferbyrace/ethnicity?Itappears thatthesetrendsweresimilarfornon-Hispanicwhiteandnon-Hispanicblackwomen,butblackwomenfacedhigherratesofmaritalbreakup, lowerratesofmakingthetransitionfromseparation todivorce,and lowerratesofremarriage.Amongwhitewomen,the increasingprobabilityoffirstmarriagebreakupleveledoff inthe1970sbutappearstohavecontinuedrisingforblackwomenthroughthe1980s.Arecharacteristicsofcommunitiesrelatedtosuccess inmarriage?Thisreportshowsclearevidence thatcommunityprosperityisrelatedtosuccessfulcohabitationsandmarriages,and thatneighborhoodpoverty increasesthe likelihoodthatcohabitationsandmarriageswillfail.Isthestatisticalportraitofunionformationanddissolutionaffectedifwemeasureunmarriedcohabitationandseparationfrommarriageaswellaslegaldivorce?Onemajoradvantageofsurveydataonmarriageis thatwearenotlimited toexamining legalmarriageanddivorce.Thedata inthisreportshowthat theprobabilitythatanintactpremaritalcohabitationwillresultinmarriage is70percentafter5years;thatprobabilityisassociatedwith the

womansrace,age,education, thehouseholds income,and theeconomicopportunitiesinthecommunity.Thedataalsoshowthatagreatmanymarriagesendin legalseparationbutnotindivorce,and that lookingonlyatdivorcegreatlyunderstatesmaritaldisruption

among

some

groups

especiallynon-HispanicblackandHispanicwomen.Whatdemographic,economic,andsocialfactorsaffectthechancesthatmarriagewillsucceedorfail?Thisreportshowsthatanumberofcharacteristicsarecloselyassociatedwiththechances thatamarriagewillcontinueorbreakup.Forfirstmarriages,forexample,marriagesareless likely tobreakup,andmore likelytosucceed,if thewifegrewup inatwo-parenthome,isAsian,was20yearsofageoroveratmarriage,didnothaveanychildrenwhenshegotmarried, iscollege-educated,hasmoreincome,orhasanyreligiousaffiliation.

Thefollowinghighlightsillustratethekindsoffindingsshown inthisreport:

Theprobabilityoffirstmarriageislowerfornon-Hispanicblackwomenthanforotherwomen(figures1and2).Gettingmarriedbythe18thbirthdayismore likelyforHispanicandnon-Hispanicwhitewomenandlesslikelyfornon-HispanicblackandAsianwomen(figure2).Firstmarriage islesslikelyforwomenwhoreportthattheirreligionisnotimportant(figure3).Earlymarriageismore likelyforwomen incommunitieswithhighermaleunemployment,lowermedianfamilyincome,higherpovertyandhigherreceiptofwelfare(figure4).Firstmarriage ismore likely innonmetropolitanareasand lesslikelyincentralcities(figure5).

Theprobabilitythatanintactfirstpremaritalcohabitationbecomesamarriageishigheramongwhitewomenand loweramongblackwomen(figure6);higheramongcoupleswithhigherincomes thanforcoupleswithlower incomes(figure7);andhigherforcohabitingwomenwithanyreligiousaffiliationthanforthosewithnoreligiousaffiliation,especiallyamongwhitewomen(figure8).Marriageis

morelikelyforcohabitingwhitewomenwhoreport thattheirreligion iseithersomewhatorveryimportant thanforthosewhoreportthattheirreligion isnotimportant(figure9).

Cohabitingwomenaremorelikelytomarryif they live incommunitieswith

lower

male

unemployment,

higher

medianfamily income,lowerpoverty,andlowerreceiptofwelfare(figure10).Themaleunemploymentrateseemstobemore importantamongblackwomenthanamongwhitewomen(figure11).

Afterthefirst3yearsofcohabitation,theprobabilitythatafirstpremaritalcohabitationbreaksup ishigheramongblackwomen thanamongHispanicorwhitewomen(figure12)andishigheramongyoungerthanolderwomen(figure13),especiallyamongwhitewomen(figure14).Womenwhohaveeverbeenforced tohave intercoursebeforethecohabitationbeganaremorelikelytoexperiencethebreakupof theirfirstpremaritalcohabitation thanwomenwhohaveneverbeenforced(figure15).

Cohabitingwomenaremorelikelytoexperiencethebreakupof theirfirstpremaritalcohabitationif they live incommunitieswithhighermaleunemployment, lowermedianfamilyincome,andhigherratesofpovertyandreceiptofwelfare(figures16and17).

Blackwomenaremore likely toexperiencefirstmaritaldisruptionandAsianwomenare less likely toexperiencefirstmaritaldisruption,comparedwithwhiteorHispanicwomen(figure18).Firstmarriagesofwomenwhoare20yearsofageoroveratmarriageareless likely tobreakupthanmarriagesof teenagedbrides;butthereisnosignificantdifferencebyageatmarriageamongHispanicwomen(figure19).Womenwhosereligion issomewhatorveryimportantarealsolesslikelytoexperienceabreakupoftheirfirstmarriage than thosewhosereligion isnot important(figure20).

Womenwholivedwithbothparentsthroughoutchildhoodare lesslikelytoexperiencethebreakupof theirfirstmarriagethanwomenwhowerenotraisedwith twoparentsthroughoutchildhood(figure21).Womenwhohaveneverbeenforced tohave intercoursebeforemarriageare less likely to

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Series23,No.22 [ Page3experiencethebreakupof theirfirstmarriagethanwomenwhohaveeverbeenforced tohave intercoursebeforemarriage(figure22).Thechanceofmaritaldisruption islowerif thewifehadherfirstbirthaftermarriage(figure23).

Womenwho

have

ever

suffered

fromgeneralizedanxietydisorder(GAD)aremore likely toexperiencethebreakupoftheirfirstmarriagethanwomenwhohaveneversufferedfromGAD(figure24).Interracialmarriagesaremorelikelytodisruptthanmarriagesinwhichbothspousesare thesamerace/ethnicity(figure25).Firstmarriagesaremorelikelytodisruptincommunitieswithhighermaleunemployment,lowermedianfamilyincome,higherpoverty,andhigherreceiptofwelfare(figures26and27).Enteringanewcohabitationafterthefirstmarriageends ismore likelyamongwhitewomen thanblackwomen(figure28);morelikelyamongwomenwithnoreligiousaffiliationthanwomenwithanyreligiousaffiliation(figure29);more likely ifshehasfewornochildren(figure30);andmorelikelyforwomenwholiveincommunitieswithlowmaleunemployment,poverty,andreceiptofwelfare(figure31).

Separatedwhitewomenaremorelikelytocompletethe legaldivorceprocessthanseparatedHispanicorblackwomen(figure32).The transitionfromseparationtodivorceis lesslikelyamongwomenwho live inlessprosperouscommunities(figure33).

Theprobabilityofremarriageishighestamongwhitedivorcedwomenand lowestamongblackdivorcedwomen(figure34).Remarriage ismorelikelyamongwomenwhowereunderage25atdivorcethanamongwomenages25andoveratdivorce(figure35).Remarriage ismore likelyfordivorcedwomenwholiveincommunitieswithlowermaleunemployment,poverty,andreceiptofwelfare(figure36).Remarriage ismore likelyforwomenwholiveinnonmetropolitanareasand isleastlikelyforwomenwho live inthecentralcitiesofmetropolitanareas(figure37).

Blackwomenaremorelikelytoexperiencethebreakupoftheirsecondmarriage thanotherwomen(figure38);

secondmarriagedisruptionismorelikelyamongwomenwhowereyoungerthanage25atremarriagethanwomenwhowereolderatremarriage(figure39),more likelyamongwomenwhowerenotraised throughoutchildhoodwith twoparents(figure40),more

likely

among

women

who

have

everbeenforcedtohaveintercoursebeforemarriagethanwomenwhohaveneverbeenforcedtohaveintercoursebeforemarriage(figure41),andmorelikelyamongwomenwhohaveeversufferedfromGADthanwomenwhohaveneversufferedfromGAD(figure42).

Womenwithnochildrenat thestartof thesecondmarriageare theleastlikely toexperiencesecondmaritaldisruption.Amongthosewithchildrenatremarriage, thosewithanyunwantedchildrenaremorelikelytoexperienceasecondmaritaldisruptionthanthosewithnounwantedchildren(figure43).Womenwholiveincommunitieswithhighermaleunemployment, lowermedianfamilyincome,higherpoverty,andhigherreceiptofwelfarearemorelikely toexperience thesecondmaritalbreakup(figure44).

Although thestatisticspresented inthisreportaredescriptiveinnature,it ispossibletoobservehowthecharacteristicsof individualsandcommunitiesmayberelated to thestabilityofcohabitationsandmarriages.Cohabitationsandmarriagestendto lastlongerif thewomanwasolderatthetimethecohabitationormarriagebegan,ifherfamilyincomeishigher, ifshehasanyreligiousaffiliationorreportsthatherreligionis importanttoher, ifshewasraisedthroughchildhoodinatwo-parentintactfamily,ifshehadneverbeenforced tohave intercourse,ifshehadnochildrenatthestartof thecohabitationormarriage,ifherfirstbirthwasatleast8monthsafter thebeginningof thecohabitationormarriage, ifshehasneversufferedgeneralizedanxietydisorder, ifsheisthesamerace/ethnicityasherhusband,orifshelivesincommunitieswithhighermedianfamilyincome, lowermaleunemployment, lesspoverty,lessreceiptofwelfare,andmoreadultswhoarecollege-educated.Someof thesecharacteristicsshowstrongereffectsfor

thestabilityofmarriage thanforthestabilityofcohabitation,andsomeoftheeffectsvarybyrace/ethnicity.Introduction

Marriage isassociatedwithavarietyofpositiveoutcomes,anddissolutionofmarriageis

associatedwithnegativeoutcomesformen,women,andtheirchildren.Afullanalysisof thebenefitsofmarriagetoeitherchildrenorspousesisbeyondthescopeof thisreport;butthisbriefreviewshouldservetohighlighttheimportanceof thedatadescribedin thisreport.Thepurposeof thisreportistopresentestimatesof thepatternsofcohabitation,marriage,divorce,andremarriage intheUnitedStatesasof1995,byawidevarietyof individual-andcommunity-levelcharacteristics.Wedonotattempttoproviderigorousexplanationsforthemanyfindingsreportedhere.Theintentis topresentthefindings inastatisticallysoundformat, ingreaterdetailthanhaseverbeendonefortheUnitedStates,andthustoencouragemoreunderstandingandfurtherstudyofthese importanttopics.

Comparedwithunmarriedpeople,marriedmenandwomentend tohavelowermortality,lessriskybehavior,moremonitoringofhealth,morecompliancewithmedicalregimens,highersexualfrequency,moresatisfactionwiththeirsexual lives,moresavings,andhigherwages(13).Thedifferencesbetweenmarriedandunmarriedpeoplemayreflectacausaleffectofmarriageoraselectioneffect.Healthierpeoplemaybemore likelythanothers tofindmatesandmarry.Researchhassuggested thatthebenefitsofmarriagemaybepartiallyduetoaselectioneffectandpartiallydueto truebenefitstobegainedfrombeingmarriedasopposedtobeingunmarried(3,4).Alowermortalityriskamongthemarriedhasbeenshowntopersistevenafterhealthinearlyadulthoodwascontrolled,suggesting thatatleastpartof thebenefitofbeingmarriedisnottheresultofselection(4).

Comparedtomarried individuals,divorcedpersonsexhibitlowerlevelsof

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Page4 [ Series23,No.22psychologicalwell-being,morehealthproblems,greaterriskofmortality,moresocialisolation,lesssatisfyingsexlives,morenegativelifeevents,greaterlevelsofdepressionandalcoholuse,andlowerlevelsofhappinessandself-acceptance(5).Theeconomicconsequencesofdivorce

can

be

severe

for

women.

Most

often,childrenremainwith themotherafterdivorce; thelossof theex-husbandsincomeoftenresultsinasevere lossofincomepercapita(6,7).Foraman, theretentionof incomecombinedwithdecreasedfamilysizemayactuallyresult inanincrease inhisnewhouseholdsincomepercapita(6,8).

Adverseoutcomesaccrue tochildrenofdivorceandchildrenraisedinsingle-parentfamilies.Althoughnotallsingle-parentfamiliesaretheresultofdivorceandnotalldivorcedmothersremainsingle,virtuallyallchildrenofdivorcespendsometimeinasingle-parenthouseholduntil themotherremarries.Evenwhenthemotherdoesremarry,studiessuggest thatchildreninstepfamilieshavesimilarrisksofadverseoutcomesaschildren insingle-parentfamilies:bothgroupsofchildrendoworse thanchildrenlivingwith twobiologicalparents intermsofacademicachievement,depression,andbehaviorproblemssuchasdrugandalcoholabuse,premaritalsexualintercourse,andbeingarrested(9).

Single-parentfamilieshave lowerlevelsofparentalinvolvementinschoolactivitiesand lowerstudentachievement,comparedto two-parentfamilies(10).Childrenraised insingle-parentfamiliesaremore likely todropoutofhighschool,havelowergradesandattendancewhileinschool,andareless likely toattendandgraduatefromcollegethanchildrenraisedintwo-parentfamilies(11).Theyaremorelikelytobeoutofschoolandunemployedandarealsomore likely tobecomesingleparents themselves,thanchildrenraisedin two-parentfamilies(11).Studieshavefound that,comparedtochildren intwo-parentfamilies,childrenofdivorcescoreloweronmeasuresofself-concept,socialcompetence,conduct,psychologicaladjustmentandlong-termhealth(5).

Thepositivehealthbenefitsofmarriageand thenegativeconsequences

ofdivorce illustratethe importanceofexamining trendsanddifferentialsin thepatternsofmarriageanddivorceovertime.TrendsandDifferencesinMarriageandDivorce

In theUnitedStatesduring thesecondhalfofthetwentiethcentury,theproportionofpeopleslivesspentinmarriagedeclineddue topostponementofmarriagetolateragesandhigherratesofdivorce(12).The increaseinnonmaritalcohabitinghasalsocontributedtothedeclinein theproportionofpeopleslivesspentinmarriage.Increasingratesofcohabitationhavelargelyoffsetdecreasingratesofmarriage(13,14).

Theproportionof timespent inmarriagehasvariedacrossdemographicsubgroups.Since1950, themaritalpatternsofwhiteandblackAmericanshavedivergedconsiderably.About91percentofwhitewomenborninthe1950sareestimated tomarryatsometimein theirlives,comparedwithonly75percentofblackwomenborn inthe1950s(13).Blackmarriedcouplesaremore likely tobreakupthanwhitemarriedcouples,andblackdivorceesarelesslikelytoremarry thanwhitedivorcees(13).

ThedegreeofattachmenttomarriageamongblackAmericansissimilar tothatofwhiteAmericansasmeasuredbyattitudes towardmarriage(15,16).Oneexplanationofferedbysomeresearchersfor thelowerproportionof timespentinmarriageamongblackAmericansis theideaofamarriagesqueeze,inwhich themarriageablepoolofblackmen islowduetohighratesofjoblessness,incarceration,

and

mortality

(1719).

Employedmenaremore likely thanunemployedmentomarry(20).

Inadditiontoraceandemploymentstatus,othercharacteristicsofindividualsthathavebeenfound toberelatedtoahigherprobabilityofgettingmarriedincludehighereducationandearnings(21).Characteristicsrelatedtogettingmarriedearlierincludegrowingupinadisruptedfamilyandhigherlevelsofparentseducation(22).

Characteristicsof individualsrelated toahigherprobabilityofdivorce includeyoungerageatmarriage,lowereducationand laterbirthcohort(23),latermarriagecohortandpresenceofapremaritalbirth(24),premaritalcohabitation(25),andpremaritalsexualactivity

(26).

Catholic

white

women

are

less likely todivorcethannon-Catholicwhitewomen(24).Maritaldissatisfactionhasbeenfound tobeassociatedwithpsychiatricdisorderssuchasGAD,depression,andpanic(27).Othercharacteristicsrelated toalowerprobabilityofremarriage includehighereducationandolderageatdivorce(28)andpresenceofchildrenfrompriormarriages(9).

Lowereconomicprospectsforless-educatedyoungmenhavebeenhypothesizedtodecreasetheprobabilityofmarriage.The increasingeconomicindependenceofwomenhasalsobeenhypothesizedtodecreasetheprobabilityofmarriage,althoughrecentevidencesuggeststhat theincreasingeconomicindependenceofwomenmayactuallyincrease theprobabilityofmarriageasearningsandemploymentmaymakeeitherpartneranattractivepotentialspouse(17,21).Marriagemarketconditionsmayalsoplayarole, in thattheprobabilityofdivorce ishigher inareaswithlargenumbersofeconomicallyattractivepotentialalternatepartners(17,29).

Afullanalysisofallof theindividual- andcommunity-levelcharacteristicsassociatedwithcohabitation,marriage,anddivorce isbeyondthescopeofthisreport.Thepurposeof thisreportis topresentestimatesofthepatternsofcohabitation,marriage,divorce,andremarriage intheUnitedStatesasof1995byawidevarietyofdemographicandcommunitycharacteristics.The individualcharacteristics includesomewhichhavebeenshowntoberelated tomaritaloutcomesin theliteraturecitedabove:age,race/ethnicity,education, income,employmentstatus,religion,familybackground,parity,GAD,andwhetherthewomancohabitedwithherhusbandbeforemarriage(9,13,2028).Otherindividualcharacteristicshavebeenfound inotheranalysesoftheNationalSurveyofFamilyGrowth(NSFG) tobe

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Series23,No.22 [ Page5correlatedwithrelatedvariablessuchasmaritalstatus,ageatmarriage,oryearofmarriage:forced intercourse,timingoffirstbirth,andwhetherbirthswereunwanted(30).

Someofthese individualcharacteristicsarenotavailableforallanalyses.

For

example,

whether

the

marriagewasprecededbycohabitationisonlyappropriateforanalysesoffirst-andsecond-marriageduration.Somecharacteristicsdonotalwayshaveenoughcases touseinsomeanalyses.Forexample,parity ismeasuredasthenumberofchildrenbornbythestartoftheanalysisinterval,andthe intervalfortheanalysisoffirstmarriagebeginsatage15; thenumberofwomenwhohadgivenbirthbeforeage15wasinsufficientforanalysisofthisvariable.Wherepossible,analyseswererunbyvariousdifferentmeasurementsof thesevariables.Analysesofalloutcomesarepresentedbyreligiousaffiliationand theimportanceofreligion.Foranalysesoffirst- andsecond-marriagedisruption,resultsarepresentedby thewifesageandby theagedifferencewithherhusband,andby thewifesrace/ethnicityandbytheracedifferencewithherhusband(theagedifferencewithpartnerandracedifferencewithpartnerarenotavailableforanalysisof thefirstcohabitationbecauseof thelargeamountofmissingdatain thewomansreportofherfirstcohabitingpartnerscharacteristics).

Basicmeasuresofresidencesuchasregionofresidenceandmetropolitanstatusareincludedhere.Othermeasuresofthecharacteristicsofthecommunitymeasuredatthecensus-tractorcountylevelarealso included:themaleunemploymentrate,medianfamilyincome,percentofhouseholdsbelowpoverty,percentoffamiliesreceivingpublicassistance,percentofadultswithcollegeeducation, thecrimerate in thecounty,andthepercentofwomennever-married.

Theanalysisofeachoutcomeispresentedbyeach individualandcommunitycharacteristicseparately.Theresultsaredescriptiveandarenotmeanttorepresentadefinitiveexplanationoftheseoutcomes.Furtheranalysisusingmultivariatetechniquesmayrevealthatsomeof thecharacteristicsin thisreport

aremoreorlessimportant thanothers,butsuchanalysisisbeyond thescopeofthisreport.Theestimates in thisreportarebasedonCycle5ofNSFG,conducted in1995bytheCentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention(CDC)/NationalCenterforHealthStatistics

(NCHS).

Preliminary

estimates

offirstmarriagedisruption, thetransitionfromseparation todivorce,remarriage,andsecondmarriagedisruptionbyrace/ethnicityandagebasedonthe1995NSFGwerepublishedpreviously(31).DataSources

Therehavebeenseveralsourcesofdataonmarriage,divorce,andcohabitation in theUnitedStates inrecentdecades,butfewarestillactive:+ Until1995,theNCHSVital

Statisticsprogramincludedmarriageanddivorceregistrationdata.Thecollectionof individualrecorddataendedwithdatayear1995,andsincethenonlyannualtotalcountsofmarriagesanddivorceshavebeenavailable(32).Thatsystempreviouslygaveannualratesoflegalmarriageanddivorcebymarriageorderandagebuthadnodataonthe

lifetime

probability

of

divorce

byothercharacteristicsandincludednodataoncohabitationorseparation.

+ TheU.S.CensusBureausCurrentPopulationSurvey(CPS)previouslycontainedamaritalhistorysupplementto theJuneCPSevery5yearsin1980,1985,1990,and1995,butwasnotcontinuedafter1995(33).

+ TheNationalSurveyofFamiliesandHouseholds,conductedby theUniversityofWisconsin-Madison CenterforDemographyandEcology,wasacomprehensivesurveycoveringmanyaspectsofcohabitationandmarriageandwasespeciallyusefulbecauseofitslongitudinaldesign,allowingforthepredictionofoutcomesbasedoncovariatesmeasuredbefore thoseoutcomes.However, thesamplewasoriginallydrawnin1987andthelastdatacollectionwasin199294,

althoughathirdwaveofdata isbeingcollected in200102(34).

+ TheU.S.CensusBureausSurveyofIncomeandProgramParticipation(SIPP) isalongitudinalpanelsurveyofapproximately37,000householdsthat includesamaritalhistoryandalarge

number

of

demographic

characteristics.ThemostrecentSIPPdataavailablewerefrom the1996panel(35).Therewasnocohabitationhistorydatacollected inSIPP,soanalysisofthetransitionfromcohabitation tomarriageisimpossible.

+ Cycle5oftheNSFGwascollectedin1995andcontainsfullcohabitationandmarriagehistoriesaswellasa largenumberofpotentialcharacteristicstostudypatternsofcohabitation,marriage,anddivorce.Inaddition, theNSFGCycle5 includesdataonthecharacteristicsofthecommunities inwhich therespondents live,allowingforcontextualanalysisofcohabitation,marriage,divorce,andremarriage.Cycles1 through5ofNSFGcanbepooled toperformtrendanalysis.Unlikemostof theseotherdatasystems,NSFGiscurrentlyongoing.Cycle6oftheNSFG istobecollected in2002,withpublic-usedatafilesexpectedtobecomeavailablein late2003.Furtheranalysisofnewdataonthesetopicscollectedin2002willthereforebepossible.

LifeTablesonMarriageTherehavebeennumerousstudies

usinglife-tabletechniquestostudymarriageanddivorcein theUnitedStates.Onestudypresentedfirstandsecondmarriagedissolutionlife tablesbasedonthe1973NSFG(23).Anotherstudy(1980)constructedsimilartablesonfirstandsecondmarriagebasedontheDivorceRegistrationAreaannualdivorcecertificatedata(36).Lifetablesofmarriage,widowhood,anddivorcehavebeencomputedbasedonpublishedcensusandvitalstatisticsdata(37,38).Otherstudieshavepresentedstatisticsonmarriageanddivorcethatarecalculatedascumulativepercents,which

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Page6 [ Series23,No.22aresimilartoestimatesobtained inlifetables.Onesuchstudypresentedcumulativeprobabilitiesofremarriagebasedonthe1976NSFG(28).Anotherstudypresentedcumulativeproportionsofmarriagesdissolvedbasedon the1982NSFG(22).Becausethefocusofthis

report

is

on

the

occurrence

of

certainevents(maritaldisruption,remarriage,etc.)withinaspecifiedtimeframe(durationofmarriage,durationofdivorce,etc.),life-tabletechniquesareappropriatefor thisanalysis(23).Adetaileddescriptionof life-tabletechniquesappearsintheMethodssection,andasamplelife tableappearsinAppendixII.

The life tables in thisreportarebasedonCycle5oftheNSFG,themostrecentavailabledata.Inaddition,a largenumberofcovariatesareexaminedthatwerenotanalyzedin thepreviousstudies, including thecharacteristicsofthecommunitiesinwhichwomenlive.Wealsoincludecohabitationlifetablesthatwerenotavailable inpriorstudies,including theprobabilityofcohabitationdisruption, theprobabilityofacohabitationbecomingamarriage,andtheprobabilityofcohabitationafter thedissolutionoffirstmarriage.MethodsDataThenationalestimatesofcohabitation,marriage,anddivorcepatternsinthisreportarebasedondatafrom the1995NSFG.Cycle5ofNSFG,conductedbyCDC/NCHSin1995,wasbasedonamultistageprobabilitysampleof thecivilian,noninstitutionalizedpopulationofwomen in theUnitedStates,yieldingestimatesthatarerepresentativeofwomen1544yearsofage in1995.BetweenJanuaryandOctober1995,in-homecomputer-assistedpersonalinterviewswereconductedwith10,847women,ofwhom1,553wereHispanicwomen,6,483werenon-Hispanicwhitewomen,2,446werenon-Hispanicblackwomenand365werewomenofotherracesandethnicorigins.Theoverallresponseratewas79percent(30).

Thesamplelistfor the1995NSFGwasselectedfromhouseholdsthatresponded to the1993NationalHealthInterviewSurvey.Non-Hispanicblack

andHispanicwomenweresampledathigherrates thanwereotherwomen.Samplingweightsaccountfordifferentialprobabilitiesofsampleselectionandfornonresponse,andareadjustedtoagreewithcontrol totalsbyage,race,parity,andmaritalstatusprovided

by

the

U.S.

Census

Bureau.

The10,847womeninthe1995NSFGrepresentthe60millionwomen1544yearsofagein theciviliannoninstitutionalizedpopulationof theUnitedStates in1995.Onaverage,eachwomanin the1995NSFGrepresentsabout5,500women in thepopulation,althoughsampleweightsvaryconsiderablyfrom thisaveragevaluedependingontherespondentsrace,age,andHispanicethnicity,theresponserateforsimilarwomen,andotherfactors(30,39).SeeAppendixI,TechnicalNotesforadditionalinformation.

The1995NSFGcollectedcompleteretrospectivehistoriesofeachwomansexperienceswithcohabitation,marriage,anddivorce, includingthebeginningandendingdatesofeachcohabitationandmarriageandtheoutcomeofeachunion(marriage,separation,divorce,orwidowhood)(40).Given thesedata, theprobabilitiesshown inthisreportcanbeestimatedusinglife-tabletechniques.

Previousanalysesofmarriageanddivorcebasedonvitalstatisticshavecomputedandpresentedannualratesofmarriageanddivorce(41,42).Ratesaresnapshotsofdatalimited toaspecificyear.The life-tableanalysisin thisreporttakesa life-cycleapproach toestimatetheprobabilities that:+ awomanwillgetmarriedforthe

first time,+ anintactfirstcohabitationwillmake

the transitiontomarriage,+ afirstcohabitationwillendin

breakup,+ afirstmarriagewillend inseparationordivorce,

+ adisruptedfirstmarriagewillbefollowedbycohabitation,

+ aseparationwillresultindivorce,+ adivorcefromfirstmarriagewillbe

followedbyremarriage,and+ asecondmarriagewillend in

separationordivorce.Theseoutcomesarepresentedin

thisreport intheorderinwhichthey

typicallyoccurin thelivesofwomenandmenthatis,inalife-cycleorder.Eachoutcomewas treatedindependently.Although it ispossible tocombineoutcomes inmultidecrementlifetables(suchas theformationofthefirstunionaseithercohabitationormarriage,

or

the

end

of

first

cohabitationineitherbreakupormarriage),that is

beyond thescopeof thisreport.Previousanalysisofdivorceand

remarriagebasedonCycle4ofNSFGusedameasureofthecumulativeproportionofmarriagesdisruptedasofinterview todescribethephenomena(43).Thisstatisticisarefinementofarate,approximatingtheestimates thatlife-tableanalysisprovides.However, itisonlyasinglemeasureofthecumulativeproportionat the timeofinterview;life tablesprovideestimatesofcumulativeproportionsatevery timepointinthe lifecourseofamarriage.LifeTablesThelife tableisa tool thatdemographersandstatisticiansusemostoftentostudymortality,but itisalsooftenappliedto thestudyofmaritalstability.Instudyingmortality, thecohort lifetable isasummaryofthemortalityhistoryofagivencohortfrombirth todeath(acohortisagroupofpeopleborninthesameyear;e.g.,the1950

cohort

includes

persons

born

in

1950),andrequiresdataon thelongevityofallcohortmembers,aspanofmore than100years.Asaresult,theperiod lifetable istypicallyusedasamodelofwhatwouldhappentoagivencohort iftheage-specificdeathratesfromacertainpointintimewere toremainfixedforthedurationof thecohortslife(44,45).

Asmembersof thecohortage,theyaresubjectedto theage-specificdeathratesofsuccessiveagecategories inthelifetable.Ateachinterval, theage-specificdeathratefor that intervalisusedtocalculatehowmanymembersofthecohortdieduring that interval.Thatnumberofdeathsissubtractedfrom thecountofcohortmembers,andtheresult isthenumberofcohortmemberswhosurvive togoontothenext interval.Eventually, thelastageinterval isreachedand thelastcohortmembersdie.Oneoverallmeasureoflongevity istheproportionwhosurvive

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Series23,No.22 [ Page7tospecificages(44).Survivorcurvescanbeplottedthatshow theproportionofthecohortsurviving toeachsuccessiveagecategory(45,46).

Toapplylife tableanalysis tothestudyofmarital(orcohabitation)stability,thecohortofpeopleisreplacedwith

acohort

of

marriages

(or

cohabitations);ageisreplacedbyunionduration,anddeath isreplacedbybreakup,separation,ordivorce.Amortalitylife tableisusedtoanalyzedeath,which isaone-timeevent thatcannotbereversed,whereasamaritallife tableisusedtoanalyzemarriage,whichcanoccurmore thanonceandcanbereversed.However,there islittleconceptualdifferencebetweenthe twoifoneconsidersthattheeventofafirstmarriagecannotbereversed(amarriedwomancanbecomeunmarried,butcannotchange thefact thatsheexperiencedtheeventofafirstmarriage).

There isanadditional issuethatmustbeaddressedinordertoapply life-tableanalysisto thestudyofmaritaloutcomes.TheNSFGsampleofwomenis limited toages1544,sothemarriagehistoriesareincomplete.Forrespondentswhosemarriagehasnotyetendedasofinterview,theenddateofthemarriageisunknown,andit isnotknownhowthemarriagewillend; therefore thedurationof themarriageisunknown,andisreferred to instatistical literatureascensored.Lifetableproceduresallowfor thesimultaneousanalysisofcompleteandincompletemarriagehistories(23).

Life tableanalysiscanhandlecensoredcasesbykeepingsuchcases intheanalysisas longas theyareatriskofdisruptionandthendropping themoutoncetheriskisunknown(47).Forexample,whencalculatingtheproportionofmarriagesthatdissolve ineachdurationinterval,amarriage thathasexistedfor24monthsandstillexistsintactat interviewwouldremaininthedenominatorforeachdurationintervaluntil24monthsofdurationisreached;afterthat, thecasewouldnolongerbeusedin thecalculations.

Widowhoodremovesamarriagefrom theriskofdissolution.The lengthof timethat themarriagewouldhaveendured intactif thehusbandhadnot

diedisunknown,socasesofwidowhoodarecensored(removedfromtheanalysis)at thedateof thedeathofthehusband.Widowhood isveryrareamongwomen intheagegroup1544.Themortalityof thewivesisunobservable,as thewomanhad tohavebeen

alive

in

order

to

be

interviewed.

As

theriskofmortalityamongwomen intheagerange1544is low,this isunlikely toaffect theresultssubstantially.

Thebasicmeasureusedinthisreport istheprobabilitythatamarriageorcohabitationwillendinseparationordivorce.Forconvenienceandbrevityinthisreport,thismeasureisreferredtoastheprobabilityofdissolutionortheprobabilityofdisruption.In thissense,dissolutionordisruptionmeanstobreakapartorbreakup.Foranalysisoffirst- orsecond-marriagedisruption,thedurationof themarriage ismeasuredinmonthsfromthestartofthemarriageuntil theseparationordivorce(marriagesending inwidowhoodorstillintactat interviewarecensored).Foranalysisofcohabitationdisruption,duration ismeasuredfromthestartofthecohabitationuntiltheendof thecohabitation,or ifthecouplemarriedduring therelationship,from thestartofthecohabitationuntiltheseparationordivorce(cohabitationsendinginthedeathofthepartnerorstill intactatinterviewarecensored).Cohabitationsthathadalreadymade thetransitiontomarriageare included intheanalysisofcohabitationdisruptionbecause theanalysisfocusesonhowlong theactualrelationshipenduresrather thanhowlongparticularlegaldefinitionsendure.

For theintervaltofirstmarriage,durationismeasuredfrom the15thbirthdaytothedateoffirstmarriage.Womenwhonevermarriedarecensoredat interview.For thetransitionfromcohabitation tomarriage,durationismeasuredfrom thestartof thecohabitationto thedateoffirstmarriage.Cohabitationsending indeathof thepartnerordisruption,orstillintactandunmarriedat interview,arecensored.For theintervaluntilpost-maritalcohabitation,duration ismeasuredfrom thedateof theendofthefirstmarriageuntil thestartofanewcohabitation.Womenwhoremarried

withoutfirstcohabitingorwhoremainedunmarriedanddidnotenteranewcohabitationby the timeof theinterviewarecensored.For thetransitionfromseparationtodivorce,durationismeasuredfromthedateofseparationfromfirstmarriage tothedate

the

divorce

was

finalized.

Women

whonevermadethe transitiontodivorceby thetimeoftheinterviewarecensored.Forremarriage,duration ismeasuredfrom thedateof thedivorceto thedateof thesecondmarriage.Womenwhoneverremarriedby thetimeof theinterviewarecensored.

Awoman30yearsofageat thetimeofhermarriagecannotbeincludedinameasureof theprobabilityofdissolutionafter20yearsofmarriage,becauseshewouldhavebeen50yearsofageafter20yearsofmarriage,andthemaximumageofwomenin theNSFGsamplewas44.Becauseof theage limitationonthesample, the longertheperiodofobservation, theyoungerthewomenmustbeatmarriagetohavebeen44yearsofageoryoungerwhenshewas interviewed.Estimatestowardthe laterdurationsarethereforebiasedtoward theexperiencesofyoungerwomenatmarriage.Becauseyoungerageatmarriageisassociatedwithahigherprobabilityofdisruption, thismeans thatestimates towardthe laterdurationsmaybeoverestimatesoftheprobabilityofdisruption.Toavoidawkwardnessindescribingresultsaffectedbythislimitation,tablesandgraphs in thisreportare truncatedasnecessary.Theeventsexamined inthisreport include thefirstmarriage,thetransitionfromfirstcohabitationtomarriage,firstcohabitationdisruption,firstmarriagedissolution,postmaritalcohabitation, thetransitionfromseparationtodivorce,secondmarriage,andsecond-marriagedissolution.Thehigher theaverageageattheevent, themoretruncation isnecessary toavoidthispotentialbias.Inthefuture,theNSFGcouldaddress this issuebyinterviewingwomenup to54or59yearsofage.

Theprobabilityofdivorce itselfisnotalways thebestmeasureofmaritalinstability.While26.5percentofwomenhavedivorcedattheendof10yearsoffirstmarriage,33percentofallfirst

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Page8 [ Series23,No.22marriageshavedisruptedbecauseofeitherseparationordivorceattheendof10years(NSFGCycle5,resultsnotshown).Subgroupcomparisonsof theprobabilityofdivorcearenotappropriateforsubgroups thatdiffer intheprobability thatseparationwillleadto

divorce

(48).

For

example,

research

hasshownthat themarriagesofblackwomenaremorelikelytoendinseparation than themarriagesofwhitewomen,andthatseparatedblackcouplesarelesslikelytomake thetransitiontodivorcethanseparatedwhitecouples(23,43).Acomparisonoftheprobabilityofdivorcealone thereforeobscuressomeof thedifferencebetween thesetwogroups intheprobability thatamarriagewilldissolve.Forthisreason,in thisreport,maritaldisruption isdefinedaseitherseparationordivorce,andasecondanalysisexaminestheprobabilitythatseparatedwomenwilldivorce.

AppendixIIpresentsanexamplelife tableforthedurationoffirstmarriageanddescribes indetaileachpartof thelife tableand itsroleinthegenerationofsurvivalstatistics.Inthefollowinganalysis,for thesakeofbrevity,only thecumulativeproportiondissolvedatthebeginningofselectedintervals ispresentedandcomparedacrosssubgroups.(The intervals thathavebeenselectedareconsistentacrossoutcomes:after1year,after3years,after5years,after10years,after15years.)Thecumulativeproportiondissolvedafteraspecifiedperiodisamorestableestimatethantheestimatesof individualprobabilitiesofdissolutionwithineachperiod(23).Although thisexplanationandtheexamplelife tableintheappendixfocusonmaritaldurationasthedependentvariableofinterest,themethodology iseasilyadapted toexamineothercohabitationandmaritaloutcomes.

Theanalysesof theintervaluntilfirstmarriageandoffirstmarriagestabilityare theonlyanalysesin thisreportinwhichthereweresufficientnumbersofnon-HispanicAsianwomenin theNSFGsampletogeneratereliableestimates.Inallotheranalyses inthisreport,non-HispanicAsianwomenareincluded inanalysisof thefullsamplebutarenotanalyzedseparately.(See

TechnicalNotes.)Non-HispanicAmericanIndianwomenare included inanalysisofthefullsample,but therewerenotsufficientnumbersofnon-HispanicAmericanIndianwomenin thesample toproducereliableestimatesseparately.

Estimatesare

presented

separately

fornon-Hispanicwhitewomen,non-Hispanicblackwomen,andHispanicwomen.Analysesbyothercharacteristicsarepresentedseparatelyfornon-Hispanicwhitewomen,andnon-Hispanicblackwomen,althoughinsomecasesthenumberofnon-Hispanicblackwomen inthesamplewasnotlargeenough toproducereliableestimatesbyothercovariates.TherewereenoughHispanicwomenin thesample topresentanalysisbyothercharacteristicsseparatelyforHispanicwomenforonlytwooutcomes: theintervaluntilfirstmarriageand thestabilityoffirstmarriage.Forconvenience inwriting, in the textofthisreport,non-Hispanicwhitewomenareoftenreferred toaswhiteandnon-Hispanicblackwomenareoftenreferredtoasblack.Thefulllabelsarealwaysusedin thetablesandgraphs.Thestatisticsin thisreportwerecomputedusingtheLIFETESTprocedureinVersion8ofPC-SAS(49).ThesoftwarepackageSUDAAN,Version7.5.6wasused tocomputethestandarderrorsofthestatistics(50).Thepointestimatesderived inSASandSUDAANare identical,but thestandarderrorscomputedinSUDAANcorrectforthecomplexsurveydesignof theNSFGCycle5.

Thestatisticalsignificanceofdifferences intheprobabilitiesexaminedin thisreportisassessedbycomparingtheboundariesofconfidenceintervalsaroundeachestimate(seetheTechnicalNotesforfurtherdetails).Differencespresentedin thetextarestatisticallysignificantatthe5-percent level,indicatingthatif thedifferenceweremerely theresultofrandomchanceanddidnotreflectatruedifferencein thegeneralpopulation,thedifferencewouldonlybeobserved in lessthan5percentofallpossiblesamples.Ingeneral,resultsaredescribedatspecificpoints intime,forexample, theprobabilityofmaritaldisruptionafter5yearsof

marriage,orafter10yearsofmarriage.Differences thataredescribed in the textasstatisticallysignificantatcertaindurationsofmarriagemaynotbestatisticallysignificantatotherdurationsofmarriage.Differences thatarenotdiscussed in the textarenotnecessarilystatistically

insignificant.

See

the

TechnicalNotesfordetailsonassessingthestatisticalsignificanceofanydifferencenotnotedin thetext.

Analysesofdatabywomenseducationalattainmentarelimitedtowomen20yearsofageandoveratinterviewbecausebelowage20,education islargelyafunctionofageandisoftenincomplete.CommunityDistributionsbyRace/Ethnicity

Aswillbeshown, therace/ethnicitydifferencesinmaritalandcohabitationalstabilityfoundin thisreportaresubstantial,and the trendanalysissuggeststhat thedifferencesareincreasingovertime,suchthatmaritalinstabilityhas leveledofffornon-Hispanicwhitewomenbutcontinues to increasefornon-Hispanicblackwomen.Intheanalysesofmaritalandcohabitationaloutcomes,theconsistentfindingis thatlessaffluentcommunitiesas indicatedby lowermedianfamily incomeandpercentcollegeeducatedandhigherunemployment,poverty,andwelfareareassociatedwithlowermaritalandcohabitationalstability.Anexaminationofcommunitydistributionsbyrace/ethnicitymaysuggestavenuesforfurtherexplorationoftheracedifferencesinmaritalandcohabitationalstability.

TableAshowsthepercentagedistributionsofcommunitycharacteristicsforallwomenandseparatelyforHispanic,white,andblackwomen.Thecommunitycharacteristicsareclassifiedinto threecategories:thetop25percent,themiddle50percent,andthebottom25percent.Thepercentagesin theTotalcolumndonotalwaysequal25,50,and25,because thevalueatthequartiledoesnotalwayssplit thesampleup intoexactquartiles.Forexample, ifthe25thpercentilevalueofmedianfamily

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marital dissolution than white women,

who are less likely to live in

communities with low income.

However, within low-income

communities, black women still have a

greater probability of marital disruption

than white women in low-income

communities, so some of the race

difference remains unexplained.

To fully explore the effects of

individual and community characteristicsrequires multilevel modeling, which is

beyond the scope of this report.

Associations between individual

outcomes and community characteristics

could be influenced by unobserved

factors. The analyses by community

characteristics are not meant to represent

full explanations of the outcomes

studied in this report. Researchers are

encouraged to use these results as

starting points to follow up with more

extensive analysis.

Results

Cohabitation and Marital

Status

Table B shows the distribution of

women 1544 years of age in 1995 by

past cohabitation and marital status, age

at interview, and race/ethnicity. Past

cohabitation and marital status is

classified in table B as never married or

ever married, with each group further

split into two subgroups separating the

never cohabited from the ever cohabited.

These four subgroups are mutually

exclusive and exhaustive, summing to

100 percent.

Almost 28 percent of women 1544

years of age have never married nor

cohabited (table B). This percentage is

considerably larger for young womenand decreases as age increases. About

62 percent of women have ever been

married, one-half of whom have ever

cohabited and one-half of whom have

never cohabited. The remaining

10 percent have cohabited, but never

married. Non-Hispanic white women are

more likely to have experienced both

cohabitation and marriage, while

non-Hispanic black women are more

likely to have experienced neither

cohabitation nor marriage (table B).

Table C shows the distribution ofwomen 1544 years of age in 1995, by

current cohabitation and marital status at

interview, age at interview, and

race/ethnicity. Current cohabitation and

marital status is classified as currently

cohabiting or not currently cohabiting.

The category not currently cohabiting is

further split into the never married,

formerly married, or currently married.

These four subgroups are mutually

exclusive and exhaustive, summing to

100 percent. Although current cohabitors

could be never married or formerly

married, they would not be included in

the never married or formerly married

categories because those groups are

restricted to respondents not cohabiting

at interview in order to focus on the

proportions of women currently in a

marriage or cohabitation.

Roughly 50 percent of women

1544 years of age are currently marriedand 7 percent of women 1544 years of

age are currently cohabiting (table C).

One third of women 1544 years of age

are not cohabiting and have never

married. The remaining 10 percent are

not cohabiting and are formerly married

(separated, divorced, or widowed). The

percent currently cohabiting is larger for

young adults in their twenties and then

decreases as age increases. The most

striking differences by race/ethnicity are

the higher percent not cohabiting and

never married and the lower percentcurrently married among non-Hispanic

black women. In the remaining text of

this report, non-Hispanic white women

are often referred to as white and

non-Hispanic black women are often

referred to as black. The full labels

are always used in the tables and

graphs.

Table B. Number of women 1544 years of age (in thousands) and percent distribution, by past cohabitation and marital status and byage at interview and race/ethnicity: United States, 1995

Age at interview and race/ethnicityNumber

(1,000s)1 Total

Past cohabitation and marital status

Never married Ever married

Nevercohabited

Evercohabited

Nevercohabited

Evercohabited

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60,201 100.0 27.5 10.2 31.4 30.9

Age at interview

1519 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,961 100.0 88.6 7.0 2.6 1.9

2024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,041 100.0 45.5 20.2 16.2 18.1

2529 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,693 100.0 20.3 15.4 30.4 33.9

3034 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,065 100.0 10.8 9.3 37.8 42.1

3539 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,211 100.0 7.1 6.4 42.9 43.6

4044 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,230 100.0 5.5 4.1 51.5 38.9

Race/ethnicity

Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,702 100.0 28.2 10.4 35.1 26.3

White non-Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42,522 100.0 24.7 8.9 32.7 33.7

Black non-Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,210 100.0 39.7 17.3 20.2 22.9

Other non-Hispanic2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,767 100.0 33.2 8.3 35.1 23.4

1

The weighted number of women is an estimate of the total population size and does not reflect sample size.2Includes Asian and Pacific Islander women and American Indian women, not shown separately.

Page 10 [ Series 23, No. 22

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Series23,No.22 [ Page11TableC.Numberofwomen1544yearsofage(inthousands)andpercentdistribution,bycurrentcohabitationandmaritalstatusandbyageat interviewandrace/ethnicity:UnitedStates,1995

CurrentcohabitationandmaritalstatusNotcohabiting

Ageat interview Number Currently Never Formerly Currentlyandrace/ethnicity (1,000s)1 Total cohabiting married married married

Total

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

60,201

100.0

7.0

33.4

10.3

49.3

Ageat interview1519 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,961 100.0 4.1 91.5 0.6 3.82024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,041 100.0 11.2 56.1 5.5 27.22529 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,693 100.0 9.8 28.9 8.8 52.53034 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,065 100.0 7.5 16.2 11.6 64.73539 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,211 100.0 5.3 11.9 15.0 67.94044 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,230 100.0 4.4 8.8 18.1 68.6

Race/ethnicityHispanic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,702 100.0 8.2 32.8 11.6 47.4Whitenon-Hispanic. . . . . . . . . . . . 42,522 100.0 7.0 29.4 9.3 54.3Blacknon-Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,210 100.0 6.9 52.5 15.5 25.2Othernon-Hispanic2 . . . . . . . . . . . 2,767 100.0 4.6 39.1 7.6 48.81

Theweightednumberofwomenisanestimateof the totalpopulationsizeanddoesnotreflectsamplesize.2IncludesAsianandPacificIslanderwomenandAmerican Indianwomen,notshownseparately.

TheProbabilityofFirstMarriage

Tables1and2show theprobabilitythatawomanmarriesforthefirst timebycharacteristicsofthewomanandhercommunity.Tables3and4showtheseestimatesforHispanicwomen, tables5and6show theestimatesfornon-Hispanicwhitewomen,and tables7and8showtheestimatesfornon-Hispanicblackwomen.Thesetablesshow theprobabilitiesofmarriageatspecificdurationssinceage15, thestartingpointforthisanalysis.Thestartingpointis

actuallythemonthof the15thbirthday,soa3-yearintervalends inthemonth

justbeforethe18thbirthdayanda5-yearintervalends inthemonthjustbeforethe20thbirthday.Arecentcensusreportestimated that90percentofwomenwillmarryatsometime intheirlives(51);becausemostwomeneventuallymarry, thetablespresentedherebasicallyshowdifferences inthetimingoffirstmarriagebycharacteristicsofthewomanandhercommunity.Aparticularvariablemayshowasignificantdifferencein theproportionofwomenmarriedbyage18,

Percentmarr

ied

Hispanic Non-Hispanic white

Non-Hispanic black Non-Hispanic Asian

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

15 16 18 20 25 30

Age in years

Figure1.Probabilityoffirstmarriagebyageandrace/ethnicity:UnitedStates,1995

butthedifferencestendtoconvergeatlaterdurationsasmostwomeneventuallymarry.

Table1showsthat8percentofwomenmarriedforthefirsttimeby the18thbirthday,25percentmarriedbythe20thbirthday,and76percentmarriedbythe30thbirthday.Figure1showstheprobabilityofmarriageover timebyrace/ethnicity:Hispanicandnon-Hispanicwhitewomenaremorelikelytomarrybyage25thannon-HispanicblackorAsianwomen,butbyage30,non-HispanicAsianwomenhavecaughtup toHispanicandwhitewomen.Blackwomenaresignificantlylesslikelytohavemarriedbyage30 thananyothergroup(table1andfigure1).Figure2showstheprobabilityofmarriagebyage18andbyage30,byrace/ethnicity.EarlymarriageismorelikelyforHispanicwomen,followedbywhitewomen,and islesslikelyforblackwomenandAsianwomen.Marriagebyage30isconsiderablylowerfornon-Hispanicblackwomen,withvirtuallynodifferencesamong theothergroups(figure2).

Earlymarriage(i.e.,beforethe18thbirthday) ismore likelyamongwomenwith less thanahighschooleducationatinterview,andamongwomenwhosemothershad lessthanahighschooleducation(table1).Thepatternofdifferencesissimilarfor thetwo

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Series23,No.22 [ Page13

6

11

4

8 89

10

3

1211

0

5

10

15

Unemployment Income Poverty Welfare

Percentmarried

Low Middle High

4

8

offamily income intheNSFGCycle5includesany incomefromthecohabitatingpartner).Figure7revealsthatthisdifferencebyfamily income ismuch largeramongblackwomenthanwhitewomen:Amongwhitewomen,there isonlyanonsignificant4percentage

point

difference

in

the

probabilityofthe transitiontomarriagebetweenthelow-incomeandhigh-incomegroups,whereas thedifferenceis32percentagepointsamongblackwomen(figure7).

Figure4.Probabilityoffirstmarriagebyage18bycommunitymaleunemploymentrate,medianfamilyincome,percentbelowpoverty,andpercentreceivingpublicassistance:UnitedStates,1995

66

73 72

48

79 7982

56

8488 87

58

0

1

1

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

All races

SMSA is standard metropolitan statistical area.

Hispanic Non-Hispanicwhite

Non-Hispanicblack

Central city Other SMSA Not SMSA

Percentmarried

1

Figure5.Probabilityoffirstmarriagebyage30byrace/ethnicityandmetropolitanstatus:UnitedStates,1995

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10

Duration in years

Percentmarried

Hispanic Non-Hispanic white Non-Hispanic black

531

Figure6.Probabilitythatanintactcohabitationmakesthetransitiontofirstmarriagebydurationofcohabitationandrace/ethnicity:UnitedStates,1995

Althoughdifferencesbetweenspecificdenominationsaresmall, theprobabilityofthe transitiontomarriagedifferssignificantlybetweenwomenwithanyreligiousaffiliationandwomenwithnoreligiousaffiliation.Figure8shows that theprobabilityof thetransition tomarriagewithin5years is65percentforwomenwithnoreligiousaffiliationand72percentforwomenwithanyreligiousaffiliation,andthedifference islargeramongwhitewomen.Figure9shows thatamongwhitewomen,women towhomreligionisnotimportantareless likely tomakethe transitiontomarriage thanwomen towhomreligionissomewhatorveryimportant,althoughthedifferenceconverges tononsignificanceatlaterdurationsofcohabitation.

Agreaterprobabilityofmakingthetransitionfromcohabitationtofirstmarriagewithin5years isalsoassociatedwithhighereducation,havinga two-parent intactfamilythroughoutchildhood,havingnochildrenatcohabitation,andhavingchildrenafterthestartof thecohab

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