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Norske Skog Deutsche Bank Credit Conference June 10 2010 OddGeir Lyngstad, Treasurer and deputy CFO
Transcript
Page 1: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Norske SkogDeutsche Bank Credit Conference June 10 2010

Odd‐Geir Lyngstad, Treasurer and deputy CFO

Page 2: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Contents• Company specifics• Markets• Financials• Initiatives• Summary• Q&A

2

Page 3: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Company specifics

Page 4: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

A leading manufacturer of publication paper

• 14 mills in 11 countries

• Revenues (2009) 

NOK 20.4 bn (USD 3.2 bn)

• 5 400 employees

• Listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange

• No controlling shareholder

4

Page 5: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

5

Global presence ‐ strong European footprint 

Saugbrugs (Norway)Follum (Norway)Skogn (Norway)

Bruck(Austria)

Walsum (Germany)Parenco (The Netherlands)Golbey (France)

Singburi (Thailand)

MNI (Malaysia – 34%)

Boyer (Australia)Tasman (New Zealand)

Albury (Australia)Bio Bio (Chile)

Pisa (Brazil)

Page 6: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Europe and Australasia are key markets

Total capacity 4.5 mill. tonnes• Newsprint etc. 3.1 mill. tonnes• Magazine 1.4 mill. tonnes

6

Page 7: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Major player in a fragmented industryTop global publication paper companies

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

UPM (FIN)

AbitibiBowater (US)Stora Enso (FIN)

Norske Skog (NOR)

Nippon Paper (JAP)Myllykoski (FIN)

NewPage (US)WhiteBirch (US)Holmen (SWE)

Oji Paper (JAP)SCA (SWE)

Kruger (CAN)Catalyst (CAN)

M‐real (FIN)

Burgo (ITA)

Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper

7

Source: RISI Dec 08, PPPC Oct 09

Million tonnes

Top 5 share of capacity

Grade North America

Europe

Newsprint 80% 60%

Uncoated Mag 80% 80%

Coated Mag 85% 70%

Page 8: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Markets

Page 9: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

9

Overcapacity in developed markets

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Capacity Demand

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Consolidated

Lessconsolidated

Fragmented

Source: PPPC Dec 09

Million tonnes

Page 10: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

10

Demand Decline leveling off in developing markets, increases elsewhere

Region/segmentYTD Mar/Apr

(09‐10)Comments

Worldstandard newsprint 5.4 % Upturn, but still far below 2007 and 2008 

levels

North Americastandard newsprint ‐1.1 % Decline has leveled off. Growth in both 

March and April

Europe standard newsprint ‐0.2 % Decline has leveled off, lower imports from 

Canada

Europe – magazine

(incl. improved news etc)4.1 % Strong growth for Coated Mechanical +8.6% 

while SC is down ‐4.4%

Non‐Japan Far East standard newsprint 18.3 % Growth in most markets; increased imports 

from Europe

Australasia standard newsprint 15.4 % Growth in economy, improved advertising 

market

Latin Americastandard newsprint 10.5 % Improved advertising market

Source: RISI/CEPIPRINT

Page 11: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

11

Sharp decline in prices in Europe

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10

EUR/tonne Newsprint SC 56 g LWC 60 g 

Source: RISI

• Prices up in 2009 due to good market balance

Significant capacity closures in 2008

• Sharp decline in prices in beginning of 2010

Significant drop in demand in 2009

• 35€ price hike announced for magazine paper

Positive volume developmentCompensation for cost increases

Page 12: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

12

US prices increase

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10

EUR/tonne Newsprint Germany US East

Source: RISI

‐ Reduced European import from N.America

Page 13: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Financials

Page 14: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

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Key financials Q1 2010Key figures (NOK mill.) Q1 2010  Q4 2009  Q1 2009

Operating revenue 4 455 4 909 5 259

EBITDA 275 472 504

EBITDA‐margin (%) 6.2 9.6 9.6

EBIT before special items ‐252 ‐27 ‐149

Value changes energy portfolio ‐954 1 368 96

Other special items 40 ‐40 ‐1 321

Impairments ‐198 ‐226 0

Operating earnings ‐ IFRS ‐ 1 364 1 075 ‐ 1 374

Net cash flow from operations 101 537 723

Page 15: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

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Low prices hit European operationsNOK mill.

Page 16: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Cost breakdown

Energy 20 %

Wood 11 %

Recovered paper 8 %

Other direct 8 %

Distribution 9 %

Labour 14 %

Other fixed 8 %

Depreciation 11 %

Market pulp 3 %

Chemicals, fillers, etc. 9 %

Energy and raw materials – 50 % of total costs

16

2009 figures, calculated to 90% operating rate

Page 17: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Current cost pictureEnergy• 2/3 electricity of which most is bought 

under long term contracts • Higher el‐prices in Q1Wood• 11% of total costs• S.America & Australasia:

• Long term contracts at favourable prices

• Continental Europe• Market exposure 

• Norway• Long term volume contracts 

Recovered paper• 8% of total costs• Reduced exposure after disposals in 

China and idling PM2 in Parenco• Significant cost pressure

17

Energy

Wood

Recovered paper

Page 18: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Current cost picture – contd. 

Market pulp• Significant price increase for 

market pulp• NSI has limited exposure

• ~200kt in magazine production

Chemicals, fillers, etc.• 9% of total costs• Increased prices end of 2009• Still upward pressure

18

MarketpulpChemicals,   

fillers, etc.

Page 19: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Q1 cash flow*

‐400

‐200

0

200

400

600

800

Q1 2009 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010

NOK mill.

• Weak EBITDA• Low interest payments in 

Q1 10, higher interest payments due in Q2 10

* Cash flow from operations, after financial items and taxes

19

Page 20: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Balance sheet Q1‐2010

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• Total assets are down ~NOK 1.6 bn. • Equity by end Q1 was ~NOK 11 bn., down from 

~NOK 12 bn. by end 2009• Net interest bearing debt is reduced by ~NOK 100 

mill. to NOK 9.5 bn.• Gearing: 0.86 (0.80 in Q4 09)

Page 21: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

‐5

‐4

‐3

‐2

‐1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ‐‐‐> 2033

Cash Bank debt Bond debtNOK bn.

4.2

‐0.4

‐1.9 ‐3.2

‐0.7

‐0.9 ‐1.0

‐4.0

‐0.1‐1.2

‐0.1

Debt repayment schedule 

21

Page 22: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Initiatives 

Page 23: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Actively closing own newsprint capacityYear   Mill Capacity  reduction

2006: Union (Norway) 265,000 tonnes

2008: Follum PM2 (Norway)Steti (Czech Republic)

130,000 tonnes130,000 tonnes

2009: Parenco PM2 (Netherlands) 225,000 tonnes

Total Europe 750,000 tonnes

30% of own European newsprint capacity in 2005 before closures

2008: New Zealand and S. Korea 310,000 tonnes

23

Page 24: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Ambitious cost and capex reduction programmes 

• Profit improvement program ended 2008 • Close to target of NOK 3 billion• Main elements; energy, efficiency improvement and de‐manning

• Initiated in summer of 2009:• Permanent idling of Parenco PM2• Reduced manning by 600 persons (9%)• Reduced maintenance costs• Headquarter cost reduction (20%)

Annual cost reduction of NOK 600‐700 mill from 2010

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Going forward:• Additional program of NOK 150‐200 million• Continuous improvement programme at all business units• Investment level reduction

• CAPEX in 2010 ~NOK 500 million

Page 25: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Debt reduction through asset salesSouth Korea• Sold in 2008• Reduced NIBD of ~NOK 4 billion

China• Sold in 2009• Reduced NIBD of ~ NOK 1 billion

Norway and others• Various properties sold in 2008 and 

2009• Reduced NIBD of ~ NOK 800 mill.

25

Going forward:• Energy contracts: Could be partly monetized • Additional divestment of properties and non‐core assets

NOK bn

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2007 2008 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10

Liabilities Equity

Page 26: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Summary

Page 27: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

27

Outlook• Demand

• Newsprint levelling off in Europe, increasing in Asia, Australasia, and South America

• Gradual recovery for magazine paper 

• Prices• Newsprint to remain low in Europe, expected increases elsewhere

• Increase in magazine paper prices, but moderate effect until second half of 2010

• Costs• Input factor price  to remain high in Q2, but cost pressure 

expected to ease in second half of 2010

Page 28: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

28

Focus going forward• Further cost reductions

• New initiatives within logistics and procurement• Rigorous follow‐up of local cost targets and improvements ‐

current programmes on track 

• Improve financial position• Divestments of non‐core assets• Improve debt maturity profile• Keep capex at low level 

• Contribute to industry restructuring

Page 29: Q1 2010 presentation - Norske Skog · SCA (SWE) Kruger (CAN) Catalyst (CAN) M‐real (FIN) Burgo (ITA) Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper 7 Source: RISI Dec 08,

Q & A


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