Q1 2018Earnings PresentationMay 3, 2018
Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information
2
Notices
• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.
• Such statements and estimates are based on assumptions as to the future and on management’s current expectations and are, naturally, subject to risks and uncertainties.
• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.
• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.
Q1 2018 Financial and Operational Highlights
3
Highlights
• Adjusted earnings nearly doubled year-over-year to $1.10 per diluted share
• North Central benchmark OSB price averaged $370 per Msf, up 26% from Q1 2017
• European Adjusted EBITDA tripled year-over-year to $18 million
• Total shipments volume up 4% year-over-year
• Declared quarterly dividend of C $0.60 per share for shareholders of record on
June 1, 2018
0.931.01
1.111.17 1.20
1.29
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F
US Housing Starts
4
Business Drivers
Source: US Department of Commerce, except where otherwise noted
March 2018 SAAR housing starts at 1.32 million, up 11% YoY
(in millions)
(1) Based on US housing economists’ forecasts.
(1)
North American Benchmark OSB Prices
5
Business Drivers
Spread SE vs NC 1 10 55 24 39
Spread WC vs NC 28 6 21 51 11
Source: Random Lengths
US$
/Msf
-7/1
6” 293
330
409
379370
292
320
354 355
331
265
324
388
328
359
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018
North Central
South East
Western Canada
European Indicative OSB Price(1)
6
Business Drivers
€/m
3
(1) European indicative average OSB price represents the gross delivered price to the largest continental market.
226230
233
262
274
200
225
250
275
300
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018
Financial Summary
7
Financials
(1) The reported Q4 income tax expense includes a non-recurring $35 million recovery resulting from the remeasurement of net deferred tax liabilities for the reduced US corporate tax rate enacted in December 2017.
(2) Represents Canadian combined federal and provincial statutory rate.
(US $ millions, except per share information)
Q1 Q4 Q1
2018 2017 2017Sales $ 576 $ 596 $ 467Adjusted EBITDA
North America 156 195 102Europe 18 12 6Unallocated (4) (3) (5)
Total 170 204 103
Earnings $ 95 $ 160 $ 49Adjusted for:
Loss on disposal of assets - 3 5Stock-based compensation and related costs 1 - 1Reported income tax expense(1) 36 6 13
Adjusted pre-tax earnings 132 169 68
Income tax expense at statutory rate(2) (36) (46) (18)
Adjusted earnings 96 123 50
Adjusted EPS, basic 1.11 1.42 0.58
Adjusted EPS, diluted 1.10 1.41 0.58
Adjusted EBITDA Variance
8
Financials
(US $ millions)
Q1 2018 Q1 2018
vs. vs.Q4 2017 Q1 2017
Adjusted EBITDA – current period $ 170 $ 170
Adjusted EBITDA – comparative period 204 103
Variance (34) 67
Mill nets(1) (18) 74
Volume(2) (9) 10
Key input prices(3) (3) (8)
Key input usage(3) (1) (2)
Mill profit share and bonus 1 (2)
Other operating costs and foreign exchange(4) (4) (5)
Total $ (34) $ 67
(1) The mill nets variance represents the estimated impact of changes in realized pricing across all products. Mill nets are calculated as sales (net of outbound freight costs)divided by shipment volumes.
(2) The volume variance represents the impact of shipment volume changes across all products.(3) The key inputs include fibre, resin, wax and energy.(4) The other operating costs and foreign exchange category covers all remaining variances including labour and benefits, maintenance, costs to prepare the Huguley, Alabama
mill for restart and costs to start up the new Inverness, Scotland line.
Liquidity and Capital Resources
9
Financials
(US $ millions, except per share information)
Q12018
Q42017
Q12017
Cash provided by operating activities before cash taxes and OWC changes $ 167 $ 186 $ 97
Cash taxes, net (70) - (1)
Operating working capital changes (93) 34 (57)
Cash provided by operating activities 4 222 39
Cash provided by operating activities per share 0.05 2.57 0.45
Operating working capital 218 127 171
Regular capital expenditures, including investment in intangible assets 46 58 29
Investment in Inverness project 4 8 31
Balance Sheet
10
Financials
(US $ millions, unless otherwise noted) Bank Covenant
Mar 31,
2018
Dec 31,
2017
Long-term debt, principal value $ 555 $ 555
Less: Cash and cash equivalents (153) (241)
Net debt 402 314
Add: Letters of credit and guarantees 20 19
Net debt for financial covenant purposes 422 333
Tangible net worth Min. $500 1,305 1,248
Net debt to capitalization, book basis Max. 65% 24% 21%
Liquidity of $503 million = $153 million in cash + $225 million in revolving bank lines+ $125 million undrawn A/R securitization
Appendices
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
An
nu
al A
vera
ge N
C P
rice
US$
per
Msf
7/1
6"
Historical North American OSB Prices
12
Appendices
North Central Benchmark OSB Price
Source: Random Lengths
15-year average
Q1 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 226 293 370
Q2 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193 264 330
Q3 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 204 301 409
Q4 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 242 285 379
Average 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218 209 269 353
Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at May 2, 2018. It is not exhaustive.
Forecast North American OSB Prices
13
Appendices
Annual Average North Central
Benchmark OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16”
Analyst 2018F 2019F
Vertical Research Partners 370 330
RBC Capital Markets 360 350
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 355 318
Buckingham Research Group 353 -
BMO Capital Markets 349 290
Raymond James 340 330
Scotiabank 336 320
TD Securities 320 290
CIBC World Markets 320 300
Average 345 316
North American Capacity Restarts Needed to Meet Growing Demand
14
Industry Overview
37 Mills in Operation
4 Mills Restarted/Available for Restart as of 2017
North American OSB Installed Capacity:
Norbord Mill
7 Mills (Re)started in 2012/13
Note: Excludes OSB siding production and capacity.
Source: APA, company documents and other public filings
(in Bsf-3/8”)
2012 2017
Production 16.2 22.1
Restarts/Idled 4.4 2.0
New 1.2
=27% =14%
Norbord’s Huguley, AL mill resumed
production in October 2017
2 Greenfield Mills in Development
Financial Sensitivities
15
Appendices
Exposure Change
Adjusted EBITDA Impact (1)
(US$ millions)
North American OSB (2) $10 per Msf-7/16” + $59
European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $12
Canadian dollar (3) $0.01 per C$ + $5
Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1
(1) Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels (including the curtailed Chambord, Quebec mill). Impact on Adjusted EBITDA of a $10 per Msf-7/16” change is ± $51 million based on the last twelve months of production at March 31, 2018.Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges.Approximate operating loss carry-forwards for tax purposes (gross) as at December 31, 2017 – US $149 million, Canada C$22 million, Belgium €32 million and UK £1 million.
(2) Estimated impact of change in Norbord’s realized North American OSB price.
(3) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares).